ABC NEWS POLL: CAMPAIGN 2000 – 10/17/00 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2000

Strength in His Base Gives Bush a Lead

George W. Bush starts the final three weeks of the 2000 presidential campaign with a narrow but real lead, lifted by overwhelming support among conservatives and broad backing in his GOP base. But independents – the key swing voters – are evenly split.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters support Bush while 43 percent favor Gore in this poll, which was conducted almost entirely before Tuesday night's final debate. This is the first of daily ABC News tracking polls that will continue up to Election Day.

Bush's five-point lead is his best since Aug. 10, after the Republican convention, and it comes in part because Gore's support has slipped by five points since Oct. 1. The main reason: Changeability among women, whose support for Gore is down from an 18-point margin early last month to two points now. Men have been more constant for Bush.

Gore Bush Nader Buchanan 10/17 43% 48 3 1 10/15 44 48 4 1 10/9 45 48 3 * 10/1 48 46 3 1 9/6 47 47 3 *

60

Bush 50

40

Gore

30 ABC News/Washington Post Polls: The 2000 Election Results are among likely voters

20

10 Nader

Buchanan 0 May Jun July July Aug Aug Aug Sept Oct Oct Oct Oct

BASE - But Bush's main strength is in his ideological base: He's supported by an overwhelming 77 percent of conservatives. While Gore has about the same support among liberals, there are twice as many conservatives as liberals among likely voters.

Gore leads among moderates, but not by a large enough margin to compensate for Bush's conservative support.

Bush is doing better in his party ranks, too – he's supported by 88 percent of Republicans, losing just eight percent of them to Gore. By contrast, Gore is supported by 80 percent of Democrats, ceding 13 percent of them to Bush.

Bush also is prevailing in another group that's near and dear to Gore: Middle class voters. Among likely voters in the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket Bush has a 10-point lead, 52-42 percent – despite the Gore campaign's heavy focus on these very voters.

INDIES – Independents are the key swing voter group in national elections, and there the race remains tight: Bush has support from 45 percent of independents, Gore 42 percent.

ABC's post-debate poll last night found that independents who tuned in picked Gore as the debate winner by a 14-point margin; women also picked him as the winner, by 12 points – both turnarounds for him from the second debate. Tracking will show whether their votes follow.

METHODOLOGY – This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 12-15 and Oct. 17, 2000, among a random national sample of 1,464 likely voters. The results have a three- point error margin. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Field work by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

Analysis by Gary Langer.

ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/PollVault/PollVault.html

Here are the full results (* is less than 0.5 percent.):

3. The candidates in November's presidential election are (Al Gore and Joseph Lieberman, the Democrats,) (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke of the Green Party) and (Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster of the Reform Party). If the election were being held today, who would you vote for - (Gore), (Bush), (Nader) or (Buchanan)?

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/17/00 43 48 1 3 1 * 1 3 10/15/00 44 48 1 4 1 * * 3 10/9/00 45 48 * 3 * 1 * 2 10/1/00 48 46 1 3 1 * * 2 9/6/00 47 47 * 3 1 1 0 2 8/20/00 48 44 2 3 1 * * 1 8/10/00 42 50 2 5 * * * 1 8/6/00 37 52 3 5 * 0 * 2 7/29/00 37 52 2 7 1 1 * 1 7/23/00 38 46 6 8 1 * 1 1 6/11/00 43 48 3 3 1 * * 2 5/10/00 38 48 5 5 2 0 * 2

Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 10/15/00 44 45 1 4 1 * 1 3 10/9/00 46 44 1 4 1 * * 3 10/1/00 47 44 2 3 1 1 1 3 9/6/00 45 45 1 3 2 * 1 3 8/20/00 46 44 3 4 * 1 1 2 8/10/00 40 48 2 5 1 1 1 2 8/6/00 37 51 4 5 1 * 1 2 7/29/00 37 49 4 7 1 1 1 1 7/23/00 39 44 6 7 1 * 1 1 6/11/00 41 47 4 4 2 * 1 2 5/10/00 39 45 5 5 2 0 1 3

Net Leaned Vote, General Population: None Other Wouldn't No Gore Bush Buchanan Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) op. 8/6/00 36 49 4 5 2 * 3 2 7/29/00 35 48 4 7 1 1 2 2 7/23/00 38 43 6 7 2 * 1 2 6/11/00 42 44 4 3 2 * 2 2 5/10/00 38 44 5 5 2 * 3 3