Storming into the Next Era of Computing Bob Morris Director, Mobile Computing November 2009
1 Discussion Topics
Why all the churn in the market?
Technology selection
Getting a product to market
How will this play out?
2 WHY ALL THE CHURN?
3 Computing Eras – Disruptive Technology
• TAM -- Few • TAM – • TAM – million Billion Global
• Touch – at • Touch – at Cloud • Touch – at the terminal the PC the browser Personal Personal • Won’t be • Won’t be • Won’t be successful – successful – successful – you won’t PC’s can’t Web is Mainframe/Mini Mainframe/Mini sell more network designed for than 100 x86
Cloud Computing will build on the previous era. PCs will still be here like Mainframes are today …
4 Users Expectations Rapidly Changing Contextually relevant Providing content relevant to your current situation/needs Mobile Compact and light enough to be always with you Fully Internet capable Wirelessly connected providing a full Internet experience Always on Able to be used for a whole day without needing to be plugged in Multimedia-rich Delivering no compromise audio and video playback
5 Enabling Technologies Are Ready
Computers “Right-sized” computing, Processors overshot needs by 5 yrs
Mobile Mobile Internet is becoming a reality Internet
802.11n Mobile 130Mbps Infrastructures in place globally Broadband 3G 14.4Mbps
Computing Web and web applications Cloud
6 Computing – “Right Size Computing”
Comparing to Porsche 911 that can go 200 mph … "A lot of today's computers have been designed to do really intensive tasks: image 200 processing, manipulation, lots of things going … netbookon concurrently.” can already meet the needs of more than half of consumers Then you get someone driving them 55 miles per hour: Going to Facebook, maybe watching a video, checking their 55 email, surfing the Web."
Intel's Atom: Too much of a good thing? May 7, 2009 © Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved Time
7 Mobile Internet – Disruptive Effect
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Email Web Search Photo Social Mobile TV / Online Services Networking Video Games iPhone Rest of Market
Cisco presentation at ABI Forum – Mobile Device Evolution Nov ’09, Source: M:Metrics, Nielson
8 Mobile Broadband -- Global Growth
Over 2 billion Mobile Broadband users by 2014
Internet via Mobile Broadband devices will generate revenues to hit $137 billion by 2014 Million Subscribers Million
40% of mobile broadband laptop users from Asia Pacific, mostly GSMA presentation at ABI Forum – Mobile Device Evolution Nov ‘09 China & India
9 Rapid Evolution of Devices
Always Connected
Innovate Tablet Smartbook Differentiate Competition Tablet Clam Results in rich eReader Netbook selection of devices
On-Demand Connected
10 What is important and who are the players TECHNOLOGY SELECTION
11 Key System Components
LCD HD TV
Mobile Computing Processor LVDS HDMI Osprey 2GHz+ Int Ctlr NEON NEON Mali-400 Mali-VE LCD ARM968 Timers Cortex-A9 Cortex-A9 GPU Video Video CPU CPU CPU Boot CODEC Interface ROM L2 Cache Wifi 802.11
NIC301 AMBA AXI Interconnect Cortex- Cortex-M3 R4 CPU or GPIO Cortex-R4 SATA DMA SDRAM UART 3G/4G Audio Flash Modem Solid State Controller Controller SPI Disk SATA USB PHY eMMC MMC SD DDR2/DDR3 PHY 10/100 Enet Camera SC300 CPU Cortex-M0 MMC Camera CPU DDR2/DDR3 Flash SD Card SDRAM Power USIM management & touch screen
Touch Screen
12 Mobile Computing SoC Guidelines*
Processor • Minimum ARM Cortex-A8 or v7 equivalent (i.e. Marvell Sheeva™, Qualcomm SnapDragon™) • Clock -- 800 MHz (highly arbitrary, greatly influenced by memory bus performance) • Minimum L2 cache size of 256kB per core • 1 GigaFlops (scaler)
Memory • Minimum 1 GB, 2.5GB/sec Display • 8.9" (min); 11.6-13.3" (mainstream) • 1024 x 600 (min); 1280x800 or 1366x768 (mainstream)*
Graphics • OpenGL ES2.0 support • 1024 x 600 (minimum) , 1280x800 or 1366x768* • GPU shader: 1.1 gigaflops (vector); Setup rate: 10 mtri/sec; Fill-rate: 200 Mpixels/sec (bi-linear, textured, opaque) Video • Minimum of 720p (full-screen and in-window) @ 30 fps • Hardware acceleration for playback mandated by Flash 10 Battery •8 hours of active use with a 60/20/10/10 mix of browsing, email/IM, document viewing/editing and full- screen video streaming; WiFi on and display at 150 nits brightness • First devices will have 3 cell battery and 10.1” screens. • “Always-on” preferred vs. “Instant-on” Most ARM devices support this. Communication • Required 802.11n •Optional BT, 3G, Ethernet, GPS
Storage • SLC-type SSD* ; SATA interface optional * Future OS guidelines
13 Cortex-A Processor Roadmap ARM Cortex “Low-Power Leadership”
- Technology leadership - Second generation 1-4X SMP - 2x5000DMIPS@2GHz+ in 40G Performance Osprey x1-4 Cortex-A9 - Technology leadership - Second generation 1-4X SMP - 4x1500DMIPS@600MHz+ in 40LP Cortex-A8 Functionality - Today’s volume silicon baseline - NEON multimedia engine - 1000DMIPS@500MHz+ in 65LP
Cortex-A5
- Optimized for Volume PPA, A9 - 80% more DMIPS/mw than ARM11/9 Efficiency
- 4x1500DMIPS@1GHz+ in 40G Value Maximum Applicability, Maximum Frequency figures are representative
14 14 ARM Mali Technology
Portfolio of 3D graphics accelerators and video engines scalable with display resolution and image complexity.
3D Graphics accelerators: Class leading anti-aliasing technology for high quality graphical displays. Energy-efficient implementation to complement the ARM processor core. Mali-55, t he world’s smallest OpenGL ES 1.1 compliant graphics core Mali-200, t he world’s most widely licensed embedded graphics processing unit (GPU) Mali-400MP, the world’s first multi-core embedded GPU
Video Engines: Based on designs proven in mobile handsets, With more than 50M units shipped. Mali-VE3, for energy-efficient video encode and decode up to D1 resolution Mali-VE6, high performance for HD images up to 1080p30 resolution
15 Mobile Computing Candidate Devices
Company Product Core Speed
ARM Cortex- Shipping product contact Freescale for NDA roadmap and product Freescale iMX515 1 GHz A8 discussions
ARM v7 Marvell 88AP510 Architecture 1.2 GHz Announced silicon License
ARM ARM11 Tegra 650 shipping. ARM Cortex-A9 licensee, contact for NDA NVIDIA Tegra™ 650 800 MHz MPCore™ product discussions
ARM Cortex- Samsung S5PV210 1 GHz ARM Cortex-A9 licensee contact for NDA product discussions A8 ARM Cortex- Announced U8500 with limited details, contact for NDA product ST Ericsson U8500 A9 – Dual NDA discussions Core ARM Cortex- TI OMAP™ 3 1 GHz Shipping product A8 ARM Cortex- TI OMAP™4 A9 – Dual 1GHz ea Announced product, contact for NDA product discussions Core
SnapDragon™ ARM v7 Qualcomm QSD8x50 Architecture 1 GHz Shipping product. License
ARM v7 SnapDragon™ Architecture 1.5 GHz Qualcomm QSD8672 Contact Qualcomm for NDA product discussions License – Dual ea Core
16 SoC Selections Comments
Semiconductor partners Devices specified are public information Must have NDA discussions to get full details There are many devices not announced that are close to production … ask the semiconductor partners
Questions to ask … Memory system performance a significant impact on processor performance . Benchmarking is needed, we have guidelines for memory latency & L2 cache sizes Minimum of 1 GB of memory addressable memory (if you want to run future OSs) Verify plan for Adobe Flash 10 integration with OpenGL ES 2.0 GPU Verify if full BSP (Board Support Package), Codecs, 2D/3D graphics drivers supported for target OS are available
17 Mobile Computing SoC Examples Processor 3D Graphics and Video HD Multimedia High-Performance
Memory Interface 88AP510
S5PV210 U8500
18 ARM Netbook Silicon: Differentiation Better Power, Better Cost, Better Choice… Today!
Freescale i.MX515 (ARM Cortex-A8) 2D/3D Graphics, HD 720p Video 512MB DDR2 8.9” Display Integrated 802.11b/g, Bluetooth 2.0 + ER <850g Estimated BoM $120
Six public ARM silicon partners for Netbook/Smartbooks today SoC costs between $10 and $20 … integrated WWAN is more Capable of three 2 hour HD movies, 9+ hours web browsing
19 ODM and enablement GETTING A PRODUCT TO MARKET
20 ARM SW Ecosystem: Enabling Great Devices
Open Source & Standards Platforms Distributions Application Support
Webkit
21 OS Landscape for Mobile Internet Distribution Devices Enablement / Customize Android Tablet, eReader SiP, Open Source, Thundersoft Chrome OS Smartbook, Netbook, TBD – Expect SiP, Open Tablet Source Ubuntu Tablet, Smartbook, SiP, Canonical ODM/OEM Netbook services, Open Source Thundersoft Tablet, Smartbook, Offers ODM/OEM services Netbook Xandros Tablet, Smartbook, ODM/OEM services Netbook Windows Tablet, Smartbook, SiP, Microsoft, Service Embedded Netbook Companies
Android Ubuntu Windows Embedded
22 CONFIDENTIAL Windows ® Embedded CE6 R3
Targeting Connected Internet Devices on ARM A new Internet Explorer optimized for devices Rapid creation of GPU accelerated rich user experiences with Silverlight for Windows Embedded Touch Support and Gesture engine for natural input capabilities and gesture animations Advanced Connection Manager to coordinate multiple network interfaces on a device
Also included in the box Microsoft Office and PDF Viewers Flash Lite QQ Messenger
Windows Embedded CE6 R3 Available Now
23 CONFIDENTIAL Web Targets ARM Powered Devices Wide range of Web 2.0 technologies optimized for ARM Languages for developing RIAs, such as JavaScript, are becoming the underlying technology of the programmable web
Browsers are now used as core frameworks by large developer communities to create applications for all devices – not just PCs
Adobe Flex Open Laszlo Google GWT Microsoft Expression Studio
Acrobat Office Suite Pandora Internet Radio Google Office Suite NBC Olympics Viewer
24 Products in Channel Timeline
CES MWC Computex ARM Cortex-A8 ARM IP ARM v7 Architecture ARM Cortex-A9
Linux
Microsoft Windows® Embedded CE6 R3
Adobe Flash Adobe Player 10
Netbook, Tablet Devices Smartbook, eReader
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010
25 Future look HOW WILL THIS PLAY OUT?
26 Consensus: It is BIG But How Big?
Smartphone* Netbook/Smartbook** <$200 Device*** 330 307 276 241 250 208 178 180 158 139 118 90 100 59 34 50 1 10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
“The broad availability of low-cost, high-performance processors opens the mobile computing market for two growth areas – sub-$200 devices for developed countries and sub-RMB1000 solutions for emerging countries,” said ABI Research senior analyst Jeff Orr. “Whether it be a first computer or a lifestyle device to enhance personal communications, the barriers of mobile computing cost structure are quickly crumbling.”
Over 2 billion Mobile Broadband users by 2014 -- GSMA
* ABI Research -- 11/09 ** ABI Research 1/09 *** ARM estimates
27 Major Driver – Effect of Low Device ASPs
Device ASPs will rapidly Netbook ASP, World Market – ABI Research 10/09 drop over the next 3 years Influenced by Competition driving lower priced technology Technology improvements Leveraging infrastructure from similar markets like PMP DICFC – Designed In ARM expects to see 1000 RMB / Country For Country $150 USD Smartbooks by end of (Replace Country with 2010 China, India, Brazil, etc.)
28 Expect lots of change … example eReaders
Business model is proven and there is lots of market excitement Rapid technology changes – Screens, OS, Connectivity Rapidly moving to 2-way mobile internet
29 … which can evolve to solve bigger problems
Global problems Solution ? rich and poor Rapid development leveraging existing technology Hits core goals of low- cost, battery life, and web connectivity
30 Summary We are at the beginning of the next era of computing, enabling global reach via low-cost internet connected devices … lots of opportunity Low- power, mobility, differentiation, innovation, competition and cost will reign supreme ARM hw and sw partners have solutions today and are designing for the future
American Way In-flight Magazine October 1, 2009 You haven’t seen anything yet Illustration by Garcia Lam … this is going to be fun! 31 THANK-YOU
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