The Forest Transition in São Paulo, Brazil: Historical Patterns and Potential Drivers
Copyright © 2018 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. Calaboni, A., L. R. Tambosi, A. T. Igari, J. S. Farinaci, J. P. Metzger, and M. Uriarte. 2018. The forest transition in São Paulo, Brazil: historical patterns and potential drivers. Ecology and Society 23(4):7. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-10270-230407 Research, part of a Special Feature on Seeking sustainable pathways for land use in Latin America The forest transition in São Paulo, Brazil: historical patterns and potential drivers Adriane Calaboni 1, Leandro R. Tambosi 2, Alexandre T. Igari 3, Juliana S. Farinaci 4, Jean Paul Metzger 1 and Maria Uriarte 5 ABSTRACT. Agricultural expansion has caused extensive deforestation throughout the tropics in the last decades, nevertheless, some countries have experienced native forest gains. In the 20th century, the state of São Paulo, Brazil, transitioned from an agricultural frontier to an agro-industrial state, and in parallel, from a high deforestation rate to a net gain in native forest. Here we examine the biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain land use and forest cover change in the state, at the municipality scale, over four consecutive intervals between 1960 and 2006. We hypothesized that factors that increase the productivity of agricultural land or reduce pressure on land development would lead to regeneration. Although results differed among intervals, our analyses demonstrate that forest gains were greater in municipalities with high forest cover percentage and steep slopes, and in areas that employed a large number of workers and relied on intensive fertilizer inputs. At the same time, forest loss was higher in municipalities with a large portion of agricultural land and soils with higher water retention capacity.
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