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The Iranian Military Intervention in Syria Strategic Assessment Assessment Strategic Volume 20 | No. 4 | January 2018 Major Trends in Iranian Society Raz Zimmt The Iranian Military Intervention in Syria: A Look to the Future Ephraim Kam The Changes in Saudi Arabia: Preparing for Possible Destabilization Amos Yadlin and Yoel Guzansky State Collapse in Libya: Prospects and Implications Sarah Feuer, Ofir Winter, Ari Heistein, and Bar Loopo Russia and China in the Middle East: Rapprochement and Rivalry Galia Lavi and Sarah Fainberg Stabilizing Afghanistan: The Need for a Comprehensive Approach Marta Furlan Israel and Delegitimization in Europe: The Netherlands Case Study Michal Hatuel-Radoshitzky and Isabel de Jong Women’s Combat Service in the IDF: The Stalled Revolution Meytal Eran-Jona and Carmit Padan Strategic ASSESSMENT Volume 20 | No. 4 | January 2018 Abstracts | 3 Major Trends in Iranian Society | 7 Raz Zimmt The Iranian Military Intervention in Syria: A Look to the Future | 19 Ephraim Kam The Changes in Saudi Arabia: Preparing for Possible Destabilization | 31 Amos Yadlin and Yoel Guzansky State Collapse in Libya: Prospects and Implications | 45 Sarah Feuer, Ofir Winter, Ari Heistein, and Bar Loopo Russia and China in the Middle East: Rapprochement and Rivalry | 57 Galia Lavi and Sarah Fainberg Stabilizing Afghanistan: The Need for a Comprehensive Approach | 69 Marta Furlan Israel and Delegitimization in Europe: The Netherlands Case Study | 81 Michal Hatuel-Radoshitzky and Isabel de Jong Women’s Combat Service in the IDF: The Stalled Revolution | 95 Meytal Eran-Jona and Carmit Padan Strategic The purpose of Strategic Assessment is to stimulate and ASSESSMENT enrich the public debate on issues that are, or should be, on Israel’s national security agenda. Strategic Assessment is a quarterly publication comprising policy-oriented articles written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor in Chief Amos Yadlin Editor Mark A. Heller Associate Editor Judith Rosen Managing Editor Moshe Grundman Editorial Board Shlomo Brom, Oded Eran, Moshe Grundman, Yoel Guzansky, Mark A. Heller, Ephraim Kam, Anat Kurz, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Judith Rosen, Amos Yadlin Editorial Advisory Board Dan Ben-David, Azar Gat, Efraim Halevy, Tamar Hermann, Itamar Rabinovich, Shimon Shamir, Gabi Sheffer, Emmanual Sivan, Shimon Stein, Asher Susser, Eyal Zisser Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Strategic Assessment is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il © All rights reserved. ISSN 0793-8942 Abstracts Major Trends in Iranian Society Raz Zimmt Iranian society is complex and in flux, and since the Islamic Revolution has experienced far reaching demographic and cultural changes. An analysis of deep-seated trends in Iranian society demonstrates processes that both encourage and inhibit political change. The younger population is, for the most part, increasingly removed from the revolution’s values, which poses a challenge to the conservative religious establishment. At the same time, the aging of the society strengthens the preference for gradual change and political stability. Secularization processes and the erosion of the status of the clerics challenge the continued rule of the religious establishment, but the strength of the national and cultural identity provides the regime with the ability to rally public support around national and religious symbols. The exposure to the West and modernization encourages liberal trends and individualism, but the public’s opposition to external Western pressures encourages a willingness to stand shoulder to shoulder with the regime against external enemies. Thus while the socio-political processes have not ripened into a catalyst for significant political change, in the absence of serious attention to the social challenges, they could, at some point, undermine the regime’s fundamental principles and its very stability, especially after the death of current Supreme Leader Khamenei. Keywords: Iran, society and politics, regime stability The Iranian Military Intervention in Syria: A Look to the Future Ephraim Kam Despite various constraints, Iran apparently intends to leave military forces in Syria indefinitely. Most of these forces will likely come from Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shiite militias and, to a lesser degree, from the Afghan and Pakistani militias, and will be led by members of the Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force. In such a scenario, they will tighten Iran’s grip on Syria, enhance Iran’s regional influence, and generate new threats against Israel. However, this military involvement also incurs weaknesses for Iran, Strategic Assessment | Volume 20 | No. 4 | January 2018 3 ABSTRACTS 4 including improved Israeli ability to attack it. Accordingly, Iran will not, in all likelihood, hurry to provoke Israel, and instead will focus on enhancing its deterrence. In any case, Israel will have to improve its deterrence against Iran; this might involve cooperation with the American administration. Keywords: Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Shiite militias, military intervention The Changes in Saudi Arabia: Preparing for Possible Destabilization Amos Yadlin and Yoel Guzansky | Volume 20 | No. 4 | January 20 | No. 2018 Volume | The resilience demonstrated by Saudi Arabia over the last seven tumultuous years does not guarantee its long term stability. Indeed, not only has the risk of an outbreak of political violence not been removed, but due to circumstances and processes underway in the kingdom, the risk is greater than in the past. Furthermore, in recent years, the Middle East has seen Strategic Assessment Strategic seemingly stable regimes collapse with no prior warning signs. Given the far reaching consequences of a collapse of the regime in Riyadh, it is important to consider this potential scenario. This essay does not purport to predict a precise time at which the kingdom might become unstable, or to assess the degree to which instability in Saudi Arabia is inevitable. Rather, it seeks to warn of the possible consequences of this scenario and generate related insights. Keywords: regime stability, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel State Collapse in Libya: Prospects and Implications Sarah Feuer, Ofir Winter, Ari Heistein, and Bar Loopo This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of a further breakdown of state coherence in Libya, and considers the implications for Israel as it seeks to minimize the risks associated with greater instability in North Africa. Libya’s strategic importance for Israel lies in its potential destabilizing impact on Egypt, its involvement in the regional struggle between Islamist and anti-Islamist factions, and its emergence as a conduit for Russia’s growing regional influence. Israeli policymakers would do well to enhance security and political coordination with Egypt in an effort to fortify Cairo’s defenses against threats emanating from Libya, while quietly urging allies in Washington not to disengage from the Libyan theater and cede additional ground to Russia. Keywords: Libya, Egypt, Russia, Haftar, North Africa ABSTRACTS 5 Russia and China in the Middle East: Rapprochement and Rivalry Galia Lavi and Sarah Fainberg As the war in Syria appears to be drawing to a close, Russia and China are looking ahead, particularly at the business opportunities available to them. Yet despite the rapprochement between Russia and China in the international arena, the cooperation that characterized these two powers during the war in Syria is likely to give way to economic rivalry that will remind them both of the bones of contention between them. At the same time, the Russian-Chinese rapprochement in the global arena, and recently 4 | January 20 | No. 2018 Volume | in the Middle East as well, despite its limitations and difficulties, is liable to bolster the standing of parties acting against Israel’s interests in the region, while weakening the influence of the United States. Israel should monitor regional developments from the perspective of relations between the powers, while also taking into account the possibility that China and Strategic Assessment Strategic Russia will cooperate in creating a bloc against the United States. Keywords: China, Russia, Middle East, power relations, Israel Stabilizing Afghanistan: The Need for a Comprehensive Approach Marta Furlan Since NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission ended in December 2014, the security situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated immensely. Against this background, President Trump has advanced a “new Afghan strategy” that focuses on sending more troops, “killing terrorists,” and eschewing “nation-building” in order to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists. Yet with the adoption of this militarized approach, it is important to analyze the problems that have plagued Afghanistan over the past two years so as to identify the most appropriate strategy to stabilize the country. Indeed, a comprehensive approach that merges military, political, and economic measures is the only path to long term stability. Keywords: Afghanistan; Taliban; ISIS-K; NUG; nation-building Israel and Delegitimization in Europe: The Netherlands
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