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Study on Illicit Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Trafficking and Other Transnational Organized Crime Preliminary Re

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Study on Illicit Financial Flows Resulting from Drug Trafficking and Other Transnational Organized Crime Preliminary Re Draft: Study on Illicit Financial Flows resulting from Drug Trafficking and other Transnational Organized Crime Preliminary results NOT FOR QUOTATION DRAFT: Study on illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crime - 15 March 2011 CONTENTS Overview of preliminary findings 3 Introduction 4 Scope of the study 4 1) ESTIMATING THE GLOBAL PROCEEDS OF CRIME 6 a) Methodological approaches proposed in the literature 6 b) Analysis of previous estimates 10 2) ANALYSIS OF SELECTED TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME SECTORS (UNDER DEVELOPMENT) 46 a) Methodology 47 b) The case of cocaine: estimating the proceeds of the illicit cocaine trade (preliminary results) 50 3) SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF FINANCIAL FLOWS EMERGING FROM DRUG TRAFFICKING AND OTHER TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME 71 a) Implications of illicit financial flows contributing to the spread of transnational organized crime 71 b) Implications of investment of criminal financial flows in the licit sector 85 c) Implications of laundering criminal financial flows, including in foreign jurisdictions 95 4) EXISTING INTERNATIONAL INSTRUMENTS TO TACKLE THE PROBLEM 103 5) PRELIMINARY SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 111 ANNEX: Text of relevant sections of international legal instruments 117 2 DRAFT: Study on illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crime - 15 March 2011 Overview of preliminary findings The purpose of this study is to examine the magnitude of illicit funds generated by drug trafficking and organized crime, and the extent to which they are laundered. Research in this area is still limited and results difficult to compare, but likely orders of magnitude may be estimated, though they should be treated with caution. The most widely quoted figure for the extent of money laundered has been the IMF ‘consensus range’ of 2% to 5% of global GDP, made public by the IMF in 1998. An analysis of the results from various studies suggests that all criminal proceeds are likely to amount to some 3.6% of global GDP (2.3%-5.5%), equivalent to about US$2.1 trillion (2009). The best estimate for the amount available for laundering through the financial system would be equivalent to 2.7% of global GDP (2.1%-4%) or US$1.6 trillion in 2009. Still within the IMF ‘consensus range’, this figure is located towards its lower end. If only flows related to drug trafficking and transnational organized crime activities are considered, related proceeds would be equivalent to about 1.5% of global GDP. The funds available for laundering through the financial system would be equivalent to some 1% of global GDP. The largest income for transnational organized crime comes from illicit drugs, which account for some 20% (17%-25%) of all crime proceeds, about half of transnational organized crime proceeds and 0.6% to 0.9% of global GDP. In turn, drug-related proceeds available for money-laundering through the financial system would be equivalent to between 0.4% and 0.6% of global GDP. Expressed as a proportion of national GDP, all crime proceeds appear to be generally higher in developing countries and tend to be laundered abroad more frequently The results also suggest that the ‘interception rate’ for anti-money-laundering efforts at the global level remains low. Globally, it appears that much less than 1% (probably around 0.2%) of the proceeds of crime laundered via the financial system are seized and frozen. Research is still underway, in the context of the present study, on illicit financial flows generated specifically by some transnational organized crime markets and the likely distribution of these flows across regions. Preliminary results suggest that most of the proceeds from drug trafficking are generated and laundered in developed countries. Analysis of the socio-economic impact suggests that the most severe consequence of criminal funds is the further perpetuation and promotion of criminal activities. In the drug area, research indicates that the socio-economic costs related to drug abuse are twice as high as the income generated by organized crime; in some countries (USA, UK) one can even find a 3:1 ratio. Criminal funds, even if invested in the legal economy, may create a number of problems, from distortions of the resource allocation, to ‘crowding out’ licit sectors and undermining the reputation of local institutions, which, in turn, can hamper investment and economic growth. The situation is less clear-cut for financial centres receiving illicit funds, but the long-term consequences may be negative if they do not actively fight money-laundering. 3 DRAFT: Study on illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crime - 15 March 2011 Introduction Garnered through the proceeds of illicit trafficking and other forms of organized profit- motivated crime, ‘dirty money’ can hinder governance, stability and economic development. Money-laundering is particularly problematic when it is directly related to organized crime activities that cause severe harm and generate considerable illicit profits, such as trafficking in illicit drugs, theft of natural resources, trafficking in human beings and illegal trade in arms, to mention some. While work has been done, including by UNODC, to estimate the proceeds of various transnational criminal activities, there remain considerable knowledge gaps, including on the extent to which these proceeds flow through the international financial system. UNODC Integrated Programme and Oversight Branch has commissioned a study on this issue to the Studies and Threat Analysis Section. This study is intended as a contribution towards filling these knowledge gaps. The study is ongoing and this report presents preliminary results. Scope of the study The study concentrates on the ‘illicit financial flows emerging from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crime’ and their socio-economic implications. One key aim of this study is to determine the likely magnitude of crime proceeds and to investigate the likely extent of global money-laundering. The report thus starts with an overview of the methodologies proposed in the scientific literature to measure illicit financial flows, followed by an analysis and discussion of previous results in this area. While highly diverse in nature, it will be shown that by pooling results of research undertaken at the national and the global level and by expressing estimated crime proceeds and estimated amounts of money laundered as a proportion of GDP, some likely orders of magnitude of the problem can be established. This also helps to aggregate results referring to different years. One key question in this area will be whether currently available research still supports the widely quoted IMF ‘consensus range’ of the amounts laundered being equivalent to between 2% and 5% of GDP, put forward by the IMF back in 1998. This is followed by a chapter presenting the methodology to analyse financial flows emerging from selected transnational organized crime activities, their flows into the financial system and the final destinations of these flows. This is a particularly challenging task as new territory is being entered here. New research has been undertaken for this chapter, and work is still ongoing. Some preliminary findings will be presented in this draft. A subsequent chapter will focus on the socio-economic impact of illicit financial flows emerging from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crime. It will analyse the consequences of such flows for the underlying predicate crimes and their socio-economic consequences. It will then analyse the impact of such illicit financial flows, if invested in the legal sectors of the economy. Finally, it will analyse the impact of such flows once they are laundered in foreign jurisdictions. It will discuss the consequences for the countries of origin 4 DRAFT: Study on illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crime - 15 March 2011 of such flows, and the consequences for the recipient countries, both in the short- and in the long run. The discussion on the socio-economic impact will be followed by a chapter presenting the legal instruments that have evolved over the last two decades to fight such illicit money flows at the international level. While these efforts concentrated first on drug related money laundering, it will be shown how these instruments gradually broadened their scope to encompass money laundering of all serious crime related proceeds. The report ends with a summary and preliminary conclusions. The point that – based on all existing estimates – the ‘success rate’ for anti-money laundering efforts is still limited is made, and the ensuing need for better results. There is thus a clear need for better international cooperation, and a need for a proper implementation of existing international instruments by all jurisdictions, as the whole system can be only as strong as its weakest links. 5 DRAFT: Study on illicit financial flows resulting from drug trafficking and other transnational organized crime - 15 March 2011 1) Estimating the global proceeds of crime a) Methodological approaches proposed in the literature In order to measure illicit financial flows, and thus the extent of money-laundering, a number of methods have been proposed in the literature.1 The issues at stake are very complex. As will be shown below, there is currently no single method that would give clear, unambiguous and indisputable results. In contrast to several other forms of crime, where victims report their case to the authorities, money-laundering is a largely hidden phenomenon and only a small proportion of cases tends to eventually surface (in reported suspicious transactions, court cases, et cetera). Traditional approaches used to discuss money-laundering have been based on field and case studies. In the Netherlands, for instance, Meloen et al.2 analyzed 52 criminal cases wherein property had been confiscated. They found related money-laundering activities of more than one million Dutch guilders (about US$500,000) per case.
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