Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium
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Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium i Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium Committee on International Security and Arms Control National Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1994 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium ii NOTICE: This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by the President of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal govern- ment and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control is a standing committee of the National Academy of Sciences. Its membership includes members of all three bodies. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of further- ing knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general poli- cies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is adminis- tered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This project was made possible with funding support from the Department of Energy, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and National Research Council funds. The MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York provide core support for the work of the Committee on International Security and Arms Control, including projects such as this. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 94-65536 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05042-1 The Executive Summary is available in limited quantities from the Committee on International Secu- rity and Arms Control, 2101 Constitution Avenue N.W., Washington, DC 20418. The full study, Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium, is available for sale from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue N.W., Box 285, Washington, DC 20055. 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). B-317 Copyright © 1994 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America First Printing, March 1994 Second Printing, July 1994 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium iii COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Class of 1935 Professor of Energy, University of California-Berkeley CATHERINE MCARDLE KELLEHER (Vice Chair), Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY (Plutonium Study Chair), Professor and Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University JOHN D. BALDESCHWIELER, Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology PAUL M. DOTY, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology; and Director Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses; and Senior Fellow, National Academy of Engineering RICHARD L. GARWIN, IBM Fellow Emeritus, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation DAVID C. JONES, General (retired), U.S. Air Force SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., President, Arms Control Association JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University Professor, The Rockefeller University MICHAEL M. MAY, Director Emeritus, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Vice Chancellor, Research, University of California-Los Angeles JONATHAN D. POLLACK, Corporate Research Manager for International Policy, The RAND Corporation JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, Director, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution ROBERT H. WERTHEIM, Rear Admiral (retired), U.S. Navy JEROME B. WIESNER (Consultant to the Chair), Institute Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Staff JAMES WYNGAARDEN, ex officio, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences JO L. HUSBANDS, Director MATTHEW BUNN, Plutonium Study Director LA'FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Administrative Assistant MONICA OLIVA, Research Assistant LOIS E. PETERSON, Research Associate Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium iv PANEL ON REACTOR-RELATED OPTIONS FOR THE DISPOSITION OF EXCESS WEAPONS PLUTONIUM JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Class of 1935 Professor of Energy, University of California-Berkeley JOHN AHEARNE, Executive Director, Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society ROBERT BUDNITZ, President, Future Resources Associates RICHARD L. GARWIN, IBM Fellow Emeritus, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation MICHAEL M. MAY, Director Emeritus, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory THOMAS PIGFORD, Professor of Nuclear Engineering, University of California-Berkeley JOHN TAYLOR, Vice President, Nuclear Power Division, Electric Power Research Institute Staff MATTHEW BUNN, Plutonium Study Director LA'FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Administrative Assistant MONICA OLIVA, Research Assistant LOIS E. PETERSON, Research Associate Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Management and Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium PREFACE v Preface With the end of the Cold War, the United States and the nations of the former Soviet Union are engaged in arms reductions on an unprecedented scale. What to do with the materials from the tens of thousands of nuclear weapons to be dismantled has become a pressing problem for international security. This study results from a request to the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) by General Brent Scowcroft, then the National Security Adviser to President Bush. Scowcroft asked for a full- scale study of the management and disposition options for plutonium after hearing a CISAC briefing on its discussions in March 1992 with a counterpart group from the Russian Academy of Sciences. The Clinton administration confirmed CISAC's mandate in January 1993. The formal U.S. government sponsor of the report is the Office of Nuclear Energy of the Department of Energy (DOE). Additional support for the project is being provided by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and National Research Council funds. The MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York provide core support for CISAC, including its policy reports. CISAC is a standing committee of the academy, unlike most National Research Council committees, which are formed to conduct a particular study and then dissolved. Established in 1980 to bring the scientific and technical capabilities of the academy to bear on problems