STANDARD DEVIATIONS: FLAWED ASSUMPTIONS, TORTURED DATA, AND OTHER WAYS TO LIE WITH STATISTICS DOWNLOAD FREE BOOK

Dr Gary Smith | 326 pages | 21 Jul 2015 | Overlook Press | 9781468311020 | English | United States Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics Gary Smith has solved this puzzle, and many more in all walks of life, Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions the concept of regression to the mean, one of the most powerful and least understood factors in how things turn out in life. Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions chances of this large a disparity by luck alone is about 1 inGary Smith. The fact that he thought this would attract investors Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions something about him—and perhaps his customers. Paul was not a psychic surprise, surprisebut he is a warning of things to watch out for the next time you hear some fanciful claim. He discovered that the French government had produced several mathematical tables using an automated human system. Revealing ties to the valley shared by dozens of American Professor Smith uses simple reasoning and vivid examples to help us decipher truth from fiction, thereby helping us to make better decisions. If we knew that behind the reported test were Tortured Data of unreported tests and remember that, on average, one out of every Tortured Data tests of worthless theories will be statistically significant, we would surely view what does get reported with more skepticism. If we did well wearing these socks, then it must be that these socks help us do well. This situation seems a bit odd to me, perhaps a bit sly? Ideally, we compare two random samples of healthy individuals. Want to Read Currently Reading Read. The book is cleverly written and engaging to read, full of concrete examples that make clear not just what Smith is saying but why it matters. Enlarge cover. It will surprise no one that, in a book on statistical explanation, there are no admissions of the inexplicable. The opponents in the championship game were and , two extraordinarily talented and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics from underachieving nations that often disappointed their supporters. In Standard DeviationsGary Smith sets the record straight via hugely engaging case studies and anecdotes. Thus, the major part of this are dedicated to straighten the dividing line between correlation and causation. If the theses still have your interest, per If you're short on time and want the most value from this book, start by reading chapter nineteen, which provides an Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions summation of the books driving themes, in just eight pages. Self-selection bias occurs when people choose to be in the data—for example, Tortured Data people choose to go to college, marry, or have children. What is the probability of someone with an extremely fake sounding name writing about fraud? Oct 20, M. History did not bear out this observation — not efficiently, anyway. A variation on this saying is garbage in, gospel out, referring to the tendency Tortured Data people to put Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions faith in computer-generated output without thinking carefully about the input. The great risk today is that the young will forget that deductive logic is vastly more powerful than inductive logic. Nit picking -- On page 60 the author says that researchers made an "error" when data that contradicted their conclusions was available but omitted from their calculations. In return, Dutch prosecutors agreed not to pursue criminal charges against him for the misuse of public research funds, reasoning that the government grants had been used mainly to pay the salaries of graduate students who did nothing wrong. Even if we are reasonably and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics informed, we are not always alert to the ways in which data are biased or irrelevant, or to the ways in which scientific research is flawed or misleading. There is nothing here for anyone who has any statistics background, but it seems like an entertaining introduction for the rest of us. Informations bibliographiques. Professor Smith has done us all a tremendous service. But, don't let that dissuade you from this one. Pretty darn good. Journals prefer studies that find something. Smith addresses very well later on in the book, all the more to grind my gears here. This is his first book for general readers. I cannot tell for sure which edition I had, as it does not appear to be any of Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions ones listed on Goodreads. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Smith is a Yale economist, Mlodinow is a Berkley physicist teaching probability theory now at Caltech. Those familiar with statistics may not find a lot of new information, but I did find new examples of old tricks. In the early 60's I read How to Lie with Statisticsan absolutely fantastic expose, and this is in the same vein. Eventually, that transitioned to studies into paranormal activity and how researchers cherry picked the data that supported the theory and "explained away" the data that didn't support it. A business or government researcher trying to demonstrate the value of a certain strategy, plan, or policy feels compelled to present statistically significant empirical evidence. Conservatives took it as gospel however and used it to impact our lives. The inspiration for the major motion picture The Lost City of Z, mystic and legendary CONTINUE TO BILLING/PAYMENT

Through fascinating tales, What the Luck? Still, Paul made eight World Cup predictions and got every single one right. He received his Ph. Blending the keen statistical eye of Nate Silver with the probing insights of Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely, Smith demystifies the math behind the dismal science, making it easy to spot flaws all around and find the truth hidden in plain sight. Pharmaceutical companies, for example, test thousands of experimental and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics and, even in well-designed, Tortured Data studies, we can expect hundreds of worthless drugs to show statistically significant benefits—which can in turn generate immense profits. Raghu and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics it it was ok. The inspiration for the major motion picture The Lost City of Z, mystic and legendary British explorer Colonel Percy Harrison Fawcett spent 10 years wandering the forests and death-filled rivers of in search of a fabled lost city. Everywhere, researchers chase statistical significance, and it is by no means an elusive prey. At feeding time, he was shown two clear plastic boxes with the national flags of the opposing teams glued to the front of the boxes. Written in an entertaining style with contemporary examples, this book should appeal to everyone, whether interested in marriages or mortgages, the wealth of Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions family, or the health of the economy. Unfortunately, Reinhart and Rogoff left out key data sets and made calculation errors Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions completely refute their conclusions. Enabling JavaScript in your browser will allow you to experience all the features of our site. I loved the Dutch, who had won all six of their World Cup games, scoring twelve goals while allowing only five, and had knocked out the mighty Brazil and . Or that people live three to five years longer if they have positive initials, like ACE? Abrams first published January 1st He was choosing his favorite flag. This is a combined review of the following books: Gary Smith, "What the Luck? Closer to home, later in this book we will discuss arthroscopic surgery, a routine procedure performed hundreds of thousands of times each year for knee osteoarthritis. When approved treatments do get retested, it is not at all surprising that the results are often disappointing. In only 34 cases were attempts made to replicate the original test results with larger samples. It is something I've wondered about and he clarified some misconceptions I had. Here, there were in the placebo group and 99 in the aspirin group. This was used by conservative news outlets to stir irrational fear and had direct impacts on the national budget discussion. Nevermind the unfortunate typos at least in my printing. Sixty years on, the sophistication of readers of this type of book has probably increased in statistically significant ways. Imagine the lack of sleep! Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. A variation on this saying is garbage in, gospel out, referring to the tendency of people to put excessive faith in computer-generated output without thinking carefully about the input. Paul was not a psychic surprise, surprisebut he is a warning of things to watch out for the next time you hear some fanciful claim. Everyone knows why brilliant men marry less-than-brilliant women, but why do brilliant women tend to choose less-intelligent men? Standard Deviations does a good job explaining exactly how and why that happens. If we have had bad luck, our luck has to change, right? Quotes from Standard Deviatio Which country would finally win the World Cup? We are constantly inundated with research on the latest and greatest therapy and understanding regression toward the mean can help us better interpret and apply this research to the daily care of our patients. Another example of falsified data involved tests for extrasensory perception ESP. Nov 11, Rob rated it really liked it Shelves: non-fiction. Hair quality is a sign of fertility. The evolutionary explanation is that Tortured Data rise of dark-colored moths coincided with the pollution caused by the Industrial Revolution. Refresh and try again. Then you try different age cutoffs. Find me something that proves it. The boxes contained identical yummy treats, such as a mussel or an oyster. Tortured Data that drinking a full pot of coffee Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioural economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely, Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and brings into and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics relief the fraud that surrounds us all.

Examples of the false interpretation of statistics were taken from advertisements, politics, academic research, and news reports. This book will painlessly—even enjoyably—teach you why. Escape the Present with These 24 Historical Romances. Octopus Paul, a German, usually favored the side of his tank with the German or similarly striped flag — and in those cases, the horizontally striped flag country usually won. As to the nature of this book as a critique, a lot of examples were drawn from an abundant of cases, thus perhaps at times makes this hard to read imagine the graphs and numbers! Walter J. There are two effective antidotes: common sense and fresh data. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. In Standard DeviationsGary Smith sets the record straight. While this and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics an amusing read, there is a dark undertone due to the fact that This insightful book explains how we should all be skeptical when presented with any information. Through fascinating tales, What the Luck? He's Bound to Disappoint. For example, we are often told that college graduates earn more than high school graduates, suggesting that the observed difference in incomes measures the financial return from going to college. Tortured Data premise is that statistics have been used through the years for political, business, athletic, and medical reasons that are often wrong or misleading. Rhine, tried to defuse such criticism by conducting experiments involving computers and nonhuman subjects. When the dial for the 1s column moved from 9 to 0, the dial for the 10s column moved up one notch; when the dial for the 10s column moved from 9 to 0, the dial for the s column moved up one notch; and so on. First, we are too easily seduced by patterns and by the theories that explain them. Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? The evolution of certain traits is relatively simple. What the heck was going on? Paul the Psychic Octopus happened to be living in an aquarium in Germany and, except for the Spain-Netherlands World Cup final, Paul only predicted games involving Germany. The secret record showed the light going on 50 percent of the time, and they witnessed Levy tampering with the equipment to push the reported light frequency above 50 percent. Also, his refutation of the common answer to a riddle I've seen many times was shocking you know your neighbor has 2 children and one is a girl. It'll not only help you detect BS but also help you avoid the common pitfalls in your own experiments. When my son was old enough, we were in. Oct 19, Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions rated it liked it. In his illuminating and always original text, Gary Schwartz, an art historian with an abiding interest in the cultural context of art and its reception, provides and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics interpretations of every work, including commentary on many of the most extraordinary details Paul Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions Oracle had picked Spain, and the world now seemed certain of a Spanish victory. Using colorful examples, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics teaches humility for good fortune and hope after misfortune. Clear and mildly humorous. The first dark-colored peppered moths were reported in And Other Ways to Lie with Statistics inand by98 percent of the peppered moths in Manchester were dark-colored. Reading this book would definitely remedy that! People who make different choices may in fact be different. There is a saying in statistics if Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions torture data long enough it will confess. Leamer, Chauncey J. After a decade tinkering with the design, Babbage began working on plans for a more powerful calculator he called the Analytical Engine. Jul 29, Steve rated it really liked it. The book is so wonderful that I predict the author's Tortured Data book will be less wonderful. Gregor Mendel, an Augustinian monk, conducted meticulous studies of tens of thousands of pea plants over an eight- year period. It is highly accessible and covers many pitfalls and fallacies in statistics with an ethos of common sense. The possibility of making their children autistic and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics more worrisome than the minute chances of contracting diseases that had been virtually eradicated from Britain. If you play fantasy sports, you should go get a copy of the book at once while hoping your competitors have not done likewise. Related Searches. In his first book for We are constantly inundated with research on the latest and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics greatest therapy and understanding regression toward the mean can help us better interpret and apply this research to the daily care of our patients. After Paul the octopus received worldwide attention, a previously obscure Singapore fortune teller reported that his assistant, Mani the parakeet, had correctly predicted all four winners of the World Cup quarterfinal matches. There is more than one author with this name. Mani was given worldwide publicity, and then predicted that Uruguay would beat Netherlands and that Spain would beat Germany in the semifinals, with Spain defeating Uruguay in the championship game. 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