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Download Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data STANDARD DEVIATIONS: FLAWED ASSUMPTIONS, TORTURED DATA, AND OTHER WAYS TO LIE WITH STATISTICS DOWNLOAD FREE BOOK Dr Gary Smith | 326 pages | 21 Jul 2015 | Overlook Press | 9781468311020 | English | United States Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics Gary Smith has solved this puzzle, and many more in all walks of life, Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions the concept of regression to the mean, one of the most powerful and least understood factors in how things turn out in life. Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions chances of this large a disparity by luck alone is about 1 inGary Smith. The fact that he thought this would attract investors Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions something about him—and perhaps his customers. Paul was not a psychic surprise, surprisebut he is a warning of things to watch out for the next time you hear some fanciful claim. He discovered that the French government had produced several mathematical tables using an automated human system. Revealing ties to the valley shared by dozens of American Professor Smith uses simple reasoning and vivid examples to help us decipher truth from fiction, thereby helping us to make better decisions. If we knew that behind the reported test were Tortured Data of unreported tests and remember that, on average, one out of every Tortured Data tests of worthless theories will be statistically significant, we would surely view what does get reported with more skepticism. If we did well wearing these socks, then it must be that these socks help us do well. This situation seems a bit odd to me, perhaps a bit sly? Ideally, we compare two random samples of healthy individuals. Want to Read Currently Reading Read. The book is cleverly written and engaging to read, full of concrete examples that make clear not just what Smith is saying but why it matters. Enlarge cover. It will surprise no one that, in a book on statistical explanation, there are no admissions of the inexplicable. The opponents in the championship game were Netherlands and Spain, two extraordinarily talented and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics from underachieving nations that often disappointed their supporters. In Standard DeviationsGary Smith sets the record straight via hugely engaging case studies and anecdotes. Thus, the major part of this are dedicated to straighten the dividing line between correlation and causation. If the theses still have your interest, per If you're short on time and want the most value from this book, start by reading chapter nineteen, which provides an Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions summation of the books driving themes, in just eight pages. Self-selection bias occurs when people choose to be in the data—for example, Tortured Data people choose to go to college, marry, or have children. What is the probability of someone with an extremely fake sounding name writing about fraud? Oct 20, M. History did not bear out this observation — not efficiently, anyway. A variation on this saying is garbage in, gospel out, referring to the tendency Tortured Data people to put Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions faith in computer-generated output without thinking carefully about the input. The great risk today is that the young will forget that deductive logic is vastly more powerful than inductive logic. Nit picking -- On page 60 the author says that researchers made an "error" when data that contradicted their conclusions was available but omitted from their calculations. In return, Dutch prosecutors agreed not to pursue criminal charges against him for the misuse of public research funds, reasoning that the government grants had been used mainly to pay the salaries of graduate students who did nothing wrong. Even if we are reasonably and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics informed, we are not always alert to the ways in which data are biased or irrelevant, or to the ways in which scientific research is flawed or misleading. There is nothing here for anyone who has any statistics background, but it seems like an entertaining introduction for the rest of us. Informations bibliographiques. Professor Smith has done us all a tremendous service. But, don't let that dissuade you from this one. Pretty darn good. Journals prefer studies that find something. Smith addresses very well later on in the book, all the more to grind my gears here. This is his first book for general readers. I cannot tell for sure which edition I had, as it does not appear to be any of Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions ones listed on Goodreads. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Smith is a Yale economist, Mlodinow is a Berkley physicist teaching probability theory now at Caltech. Those familiar with statistics may not find a lot of new information, but I did find new examples of old tricks. In the early 60's I read How to Lie with Statisticsan absolutely fantastic expose, and this is in the same vein. Eventually, that transitioned to studies into paranormal activity and how researchers cherry picked the data that supported the theory and "explained away" the data that didn't support it. A business or government researcher trying to demonstrate the value of a certain strategy, plan, or policy feels compelled to present statistically significant empirical evidence. Conservatives took it as gospel however and used it to impact our lives. The inspiration for the major motion picture The Lost City of Z, mystic and legendary CONTINUE TO BILLING/PAYMENT Through fascinating tales, What the Luck? Still, Paul made eight World Cup predictions and got every single one right. He received his Ph. Blending the keen statistical eye of Nate Silver with the probing insights of Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely, Smith demystifies the math behind the dismal science, making it easy to spot flaws all around and find the truth hidden in plain sight. Pharmaceutical companies, for example, test thousands of experimental and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics and, even in well-designed, Tortured Data studies, we can expect hundreds of worthless drugs to show statistically significant benefits—which can in turn generate immense profits. Raghu and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics it it was ok. The inspiration for the major motion picture The Lost City of Z, mystic and legendary British explorer Colonel Percy Harrison Fawcett spent 10 years wandering the forests and death-filled rivers of Brazil in search of a fabled lost city. Everywhere, researchers chase statistical significance, and it is by no means an elusive prey. At feeding time, he was shown two clear plastic boxes with the national flags of the opposing teams glued to the front of the boxes. Written in an entertaining style with contemporary examples, this book should appeal to everyone, whether interested in marriages or mortgages, the wealth of Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions family, or the health of the economy. Unfortunately, Reinhart and Rogoff left out key data sets and made calculation errors Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions completely refute their conclusions. Enabling JavaScript in your browser will allow you to experience all the features of our site. I loved the Dutch, who had won all six of their World Cup games, scoring twelve goals while allowing only five, and had knocked out the mighty Brazil and Uruguay. Or that people live three to five years longer if they have positive initials, like ACE? Abrams first published January 1st He was choosing his favorite flag. This is a combined review of the following books: Gary Smith, "What the Luck? Closer to home, later in this book we will discuss arthroscopic surgery, a routine procedure performed hundreds of thousands of times each year for knee osteoarthritis. When approved treatments do get retested, it is not at all surprising that the results are often disappointing. In only 34 cases were attempts made to replicate the original test results with larger samples. It is something I've wondered about and he clarified some misconceptions I had. Here, there were in the placebo group and 99 in the aspirin group. This was used by conservative news outlets to stir irrational fear and had direct impacts on the national budget discussion. Nevermind the unfortunate typos at least in my printing. Sixty years on, the sophistication of readers of this type of book has probably increased in statistically significant ways. Imagine the lack of sleep! Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. A variation on this saying is garbage in, gospel out, referring to the tendency of people to put excessive faith in computer-generated output without thinking carefully about the input. Paul was not a psychic surprise, surprisebut he is a warning of things to watch out for the next time you hear some fanciful claim. Everyone knows why brilliant men marry less-than-brilliant women, but why do brilliant women tend to choose less-intelligent men? Standard Deviations does a good job explaining exactly how and why that happens. If we have had bad luck, our luck has to change, right? Quotes from Standard Deviatio Which country would finally win the World Cup? We are constantly inundated with research on the latest and greatest therapy and understanding regression toward the mean can help us better interpret and apply this research to the daily care of our patients. Another example of falsified data involved tests for extrasensory perception ESP. Nov 11, Rob rated it really liked it Shelves: non-fiction. Hair quality is a sign of fertility. The evolutionary explanation is that Tortured Data rise of dark-colored moths coincided with the pollution caused by the Industrial Revolution.
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