FAILURE BY DESIGN The opposition made two serious miscalculations: they by Shahin Abbasov failed to unite behind a single candidate and underestimated the support Aliyev would enjoy from his The presidential election of father’s team. Also, compared with their counterparts in October 15, 2003 in Georgia, Gambar and Mamedov failed to overcome their created a new own narrow self-interests. They spent all their TV-time political reality in the country: criticizing Aliyev and his father, offering almost no the possibility of power alternative programs of their own. sharing among parties. Former president also won because he enjoyed the complete Aliyev, who had governed the support of his party, he conducted an active campaign country for a decade, did not and he raised the salaries of state employees and the participate in the presidential elections. Instead, his son pensioners on the eve of elections. Moreover, many Ilham represented the ailing leader’s party, fanning the people voted for Aliyev because they feared opposition’s desire for a free and fair election. destabilization in the country in the event of Gambar’s victory. The hopes of many were dashed when the new electoral code, mandating the formation of local election Several challenges face Azerbaijan under Aliyev. First, commissions, was adopted in May 2003. Despite civil society may be threatened. The opposition has been opposition protests and international pressure, the ruling greatly weakened and will not be able to mount any party, Yeni Azerbaijan, retained full control of the central significant resistance in the coming months. Aliyev, and local election commissions. unlike his father, has refused to meet representatives of the international organizations that criticized the election. succeeded his father as Independent media are also under president, winning 76 percent of the threat. vote by official figures. Isa Gambar of the Party finished second with Second, an upsurge in radical 12 percent and Etibar Mamedov of the Islamist movements is possible. National Independence Party gained All three Sunni mosques in less than 10 percent. But opposition receive support from parties and international monitors organizations in Saudi Arabia and disputed the results, claiming Kuwait. Every Friday, more than widespread fraud, ballot-stuffing and 10,000 people gather to pray in voter intimidation. The OSCE/ODIHR them, a figure exceeding the Election Observation Mission combined turnout at rallies confirmed that falsifications were organized by 20 opposition widespread. parties during the campaigns. If Aliyev’s economic reforms fail and Several factors contributed to the failure of the electoral prospects for democratic change do not improve, process in Azerbaijan. Opposition candidates faced extremist Islamic movements in Azerbaijan may serious obstacles throughout the campaign. The role of intensify. the mass media was very disappointing. All five local TV channels openly supported Aliyev. Only three 2004 will be a crucial year for Azerbaijan. The country opposition newspapers, Yeni Musavat, Azadliq and needs to pursue democratization, economic reform and Hurriyet, supported opposition candidates and their total the continuation of a pro-Western policy while it deepens circulation was less than 40,000 readers. Opposition national stability, secularism and independence. What candidates received no more than two percent of the can the U.S. government and various international total broadcasting time on state and private television organizations do to help Azerbaijan? Most importantly, channels and were portrayed in an extremely negative they should focus on supporting civil society and the light. independent media. It will remain important for Washington to balance its welcome support of Aliyev’s The day after the election, clashes between Gambar economic reforms with a push to launch political ones, supporters and police in the streets of Baku led to at of which opening up the political landscape to the least one death and more than 100 injuries. Gambar opposition is a major first step. declared himself the winner, but could not manage to render serious resistance because he had only three to Shahin Abbasov is a journalist with Echo newspaper in four thousand Musavat party supporters in the streets Baku and a 2003-04 Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow and, within one day, they had been suppressed. with the National Endowment for Democracy.

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