Kitamu House 6th Floor, Rm. 25, Tubman Road P.O. Box 987 – 00300, , . DATA ANALYSIS Tel: 0713184777/0722535472 Email: [email protected] Website: www.mizaniafrica.com

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KIAMBAA CONSTITUENCY POLL RELEASE

The Opinion poll was done throughout 5 Wards in

Period of Data Collection: 22nd June 2021 - 26th June 2021.

Sample Size: 500

Margin of Error: +/- 3

Confidence Level: 95%

The Demographic Split was by:

FUNDING: SELF FUNDED • The data outlined in this document is collected at Ward level and aggregates done on the parameters used.

• The data presented herein represents pure opinions from voters of Kiambaa Constituency in regards to the survey questions asked. 02

OVERALL CANDIDATES POPULARITY RANKING

KIAMBAA CONSTITUENCY: Overall Candidates Popularity Ranking

John Njuguna Wanjiku 56.5%

Kariri Njama 31.6%

Undecided 6.0%

Evans Gichia 3.3%

Willie Mbugua Kamau 1.0%

Lucy Wanjiru 0.7%

David Mugo Munyinyi 0.5%

Isaac Karomo Muchugi 0.4%

OVERALL PARTY POPULARITY RANKING

KIAMBAA CONSTITUENCY: Overall Party Popularity Ranking

UDA 66.4%

JUBILEE 31.2%

ODM 1.2%

PPK 0.5%

CRP 0.4%

PNU 0.2%

ANC 0.2% 03 CANDIDATES POPULARITY RANKING

Cianda Ndenderu Muchatha Kihara Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward AGGREGATE JOHN NJUGUNA WANJIKU

65.8% 50.7% 57.9% 57.1% 50.9% 56.5%

KARANJA KARIRI NJAMA

26.3% 35.6% 29.0% 28.6% 38.6% 31.6%

EVANS GICHIA

4.1% 4.7% 6.1% 1.8% 3.3%

WILLIE MBUGUA KAMAU

0.9% 4.1% 1.0%

LUCY WANJIRU

1.9% 1.8% 0.7%

DAVID MUGO MUNYINYI

0.9% 1.8% 0.5%

ISAAC KAROMO MUCHUGI

1.8% 0.4%

UNDECIDED 7.9% 9.6% 4.7% 4.1% 3.3% 6.0% 04

PARTY POPULARITY RANKING

KIAMBAA CONSTITUENCY: Political Parties Preference Analysis

90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% UDA JUBILEE ODM PPK CRP PNU ANC Aggregate 66.4% 31.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Cianda Ward 68.4% 31.6% Karuri Ward 56.2% 42.4% 1.4% Ndenderu Ward 70.1% 23.4% 3.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Muchatha Ward 79.6% 18.4% 2.0% Kihara Ward 57.9% 40.4% 1.8%

VOTERS WILLINGNESS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE UPCOMING BY-ELECTION

KIAMBAA CONSTITUENCY: Voters Willingness to Participate in the Upcoming By-Election

Cianda Karuri Ndenderu Muchatha Kahara YES 72.0% 79.2% 77.6% 82.0% 67.9% NO 8.0% 5.0% 10.0% 11.0% 14.1% NOT SURE 20.0% 16.0% 12.4% 7.0% 18.0% 05

METHODOLOGY

To understand voter preferences in Kiambaa Constituency, Mizani Africa con- ducted an opinion survey between 22nd June and 26th June 2021 across its 5 wards. The data was collected independently through questionnaires. The sample size was 500, confidence level 95% with a the margin of error being +-3. We applied ourselves to a demographic split of 54% women and 46% men. Face to face inter- views were conducted throught the study. Below were the key findings. a. The candidates popularity is dependent on their political affiliation. I.e., UDA as a newly registered party has registered a higher popularity than other political parties. This gives the candidate vying under U.D.A the competitive advantage against his competitors. On the other hand, the candidate vying under Jubilee political party has a higher popularity than the party itself which means that if he vied under the most popular political party, he would likely do better in the com- ing by-elections. b. Most voters in Kiambaa Constituency would likely vote in any candidate who is affiliated to U.D.A as the most popular political party. c. Most voters in Kiambaa Constituency will likely participate in the upcoming by-election.

For more information, kindly review the graphical analysis attached in this docu- ment to understand the data presented herein.