sustainability Article The Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Push-Pull Mechanism of Shrinking Counties: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China Min Wang 1,2,*, Shuqi Yang 1, Huajie Gao 1 and Kahaer Abudu 1 1 College of Urban and Environment Science, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China;
[email protected] (S.Y.);
[email protected] (H.G.);
[email protected] (K.A.) 2 Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.:+86-027-6786-8305 Abstract: To analyze the characteristics, influencing factors, and microscopic mechanisms of county- level city shrinkage, this paper uses a quantitative push-pull model to explore the shrinking counties of Shandong Province between 2000 and 2018. The measurement method formulates three research objectives. First, the shrinking intensity and characteristics are analyzed according to statistics about the average annual rate of population growth, the primary production proportion, and public expenditure. Second, the influence factors are explored. Living standards, industrial development, social input, and public resource indicators are selected to quantitatively identify the push factors and pull factors and the correlated relationship of how the factors influence the population decline using ridge regression. Finally, the circular feedback mechanism and push-pull effect of multiple factors are explained. How do the factors affect each other and which is the decisive factor shaping county shrinkage? The push-pull mechanism is analyzed using dynamic relationship testing and Citation: Wang, M.; Yang, S.; Gao, H.; the Granger causality test. The results show that the shrinkage of county-level cities faces common Abudu, K.