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What GDP Indicators Do Not Tell You: Alternative Indicators of Economic Growth and Real Convergence

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What GDP Indicators Do Not Tell You: Alternative Indicators of Economic Growth and Real Convergence s_578_594 2.12.2005 11:30 Stránka 578 UDC: 330.55 JEL Classification: O11 Keywords: gross domestic product – terms of trade – real gross domestic income – real convergence – qualitative changes – statistical paradoxes What GDP Indicators Do Not Tell You: Alternative Indicators of Economic Growth and Real Convergence RÛÏena VINTROVÁ* This paper points out the limits of GDP and the importance of supple- menting it with other indicators available in the national accounts. The wealth of a country does not depend on the volume of goods and ser- vices the economy manages to produce, but rather on its appropriate struc- ture and quality. Such quality is best reflected in foreign trade and this is especially true of small, open economies whose exports are a large share of total output. Economic analyses typically work with the GDP indicator, which however does not reflect the impact of the changes of terms of trade. The paper is organized as follows: In chapter 1 we analyze the impact of terms of trade on real income and the methodology of real gross domestic income indicator (RGDI). We also compare RGDI rates of growth in Cen- tral European countries based on our own calculations. In chapter 2 we ana- lyze the conditions under which real GDP growth does not fully reflect the progress of real convergence. We investigate the so-called Gerschenkron effect in the Central European countries and compare recent developments in Slovakia with the familiar statistical paradox of centrally planned eco- nomies. The influence of labor productivity and wage relations on the level of unit labor costs and cost competitiveness of Central European economies is compared. In the final chapter we suggest some implications for macro- economic analysis and economic policy. 1. The Impact of Terms of Trade on Real Income Real income – unlike real GDP – includes the impact of terms of trade. The Czech economy stands out – at least in the European context – owing to a substantial long-term improvement in terms of trade. These positive terms-of-trade changes affected the economic level of economic development in the country, maintenance of the macroeconomic balance, the real growth of income, and thus the process of real convergence. While in the short run import and export prices in the Czech Republic fluctuated, strongly influ- encing the external balance, in the long run the country benefitted from un- usually significant terms-of-trade gains. These “trading gains” are ignored in analyses that use only the “classic” indicator of GDP. * Centre for Economic Studies, University of Economics and Management, Prague (ruzena.vint- [email protected]) 578 Finance a úvûr – Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 55, 2005, ã. 11-12 s_578_594 2.12.2005 11:30 Stránka 579 GRAPH 1 Terms of Trade in Goods and Services in Selected EU Countries (1995 = 100)a 115 110 Czech Rep. 105 Hungary Germany 100 Poland Austria 95 Slovakia ms of trade in good ms of trade r France Te and srvices (1995=100) 90 Slovenia 85 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Note: a according to import/export deflator from national accounts Source: (European Commission, 2005), p. 84 1.1 Terms-of-Trade Changes in Transitional Economies Terms of trade (T/T) capture the relationship between export and import prices and thus express the success of a country in its external trade. Their short-term fluctuations are usually associated with price volatility in pri- mary commodities (especially crude oil). These movements are an exoge- nous variable especially in the case of small open economies. In contrast, long-term terms-of-trade trends are for the most part en- dogenous.1 If an individual country’s position in T/T improves, then this fact increases its real income above its “physical” volume of total production. The Czech Republic belongs to such countries, as shown in terms-of trade comparison with the EU countries (Graph 1). From the countries investigated, the development of terms of trade in the Czech Republic is the most favorable. Whereas in the other Central Eu- ropean new member states (NMS-4)2 the index of terms of trade was lower in 2004 in comparison with 1995, in the Czech Republic it was higher by more than 12 %.3 The Czech economy has been very sensitive to one-off fluctuations in terms of trade. In some years the changes in T/T have had a greater influence on the formation of real income than the change in real GDP (Table 1).4 On the one hand, in 1998, GDP fell by 1.1 %, but this decrease was more than 1 Providing these trends do not reflect a longer-term phenomenon of redistribution between raw- -material exporting and manufacturing countries. 2 The NMS-4 are new Central European EU member states, which include the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The NMS-5 include the above and Slovenia, and NMS-8 are all post communist countries, i.e. NMS-10 with the exception of Malta and Cyprus. 3 The rapid rise in T/T in the Czech Republic between the years 1995 and 2004 partly compen- sated for the deep fall at the start of the transformation. On the same basis (1995 = 100) T/T in the year 1990 were 109.1 %. During 1991 however they fell (after 3 devaluations of the Czecho- slovak koruna in the preceding year) by more than 24 percentage points to 84.7 %. They did not return to the previous level of 1990 until 1998. A decline of T/T was also observed in the other transformation countries, such as Poland or Slovenia, at the start of transformation in the early 1990s, but it was not as steep as in the former Czechoslovakia. 4 For more details see (Vintrová, 2004). Finance a úvûr – Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 55, 2005, ã. 11-12 579 s_578_594 2.12.2005 11:30 Stránka 580 TABLE 1 Real GDP Growth and the Impact of Terms of Trade in the Czech Republic 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP growth (in %)a 4.2 –0.7 –1.1 1.2 3.9 2.6 1.5 3.2 4.7 Change in T/T (in % of GDP)b 1.6 0.2 3.5 –0.3 –1.8 1.7 2.2 0.1 0.3 in bn. CZK 24 4 62 –6 –37 37 51 2 7 Notes: a In constant prices, calculated on the basis of the chaining method, i.e. GDP of the current year in average prices of the previous year related to GDP of the previous year in current prices. b Change of T/T adjusted to previous year average prices related to GDP of previous year in current prices. Source: (Czech Statistical Office, 2005) – author’s adjustment offset by an improvement in terms of trade equivalent to 3.5 % of GDP. In 2002 the gain in T/T was 2.2 % of GDP, which was greater than the gain in real GDP growth (1.5 %). On the other hand, in 2000, real GDP grew fast at 3.9 %, but unfavorable T/T development lowered real resources by 1.8 % of GDP, and real income growth was lower than in 1998, the year of the big- gest GDP decline. In absolute terms the favorable impact of terms of trade peaked in 1998, when it raised real income by 62 bn. constant CZK. The fall of 37 bn. CZK in 2000, caused by higher import prices, was reversed during the following year. The subsequent favorable development in terms of trade in 2002 led to a growth in real income of 51 bn. CZK. In summary, such large changes in real domestic income are difficult to ignore. Long-term improvements in terms of trade are endogenous and reflect qualitative changes in the tradable output of the given country. These are qualitative changes in the widest sense of the word, and not just improve- ments in technical parameters, which statisticians try to include in price indices according to the possibilities available.5 These qualitative changes reflect transfers of labor and capital to: (i) activities with higher value added, (ii) to more sophisticated products, and (iii) to superior technologies. In ad- dition, these changes reflect an improvement in the price premia of domestic brands and/or an elimination of discount for ‘goods from the east’ and a bett- er integration into the international trade network. These factors may in- crease export prices and raise real income without any growth in the ‘phy- sical volume’ of exported goods and services. Such changes accelerated in the Czech economy following the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) at the end of the 1990s. 1.2 Real Income Indicator Changes in terms of trade are excluded from the measure of GDP in con- stant prices. This comes from the principle on which this indicator is based: “What would happen if there were no changes either in domestic or foreign prices?” Thus, real GDP considers only the growth in volume of production, 5 The impact of quality changes in transition economies is analyzed in more detail in (Filer – Hanousek, 2000). 580 Finance a úvûr – Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, 55, 2005, ã. 11-12 s_578_594 2.12.2005 11:30 Stránka 581 while its valuation in foreign markets as well as import price changes are ignored. However, unlike domestic price changes, export and import price changes influence the real income available for consumption and invest- ment in a given country. For this reason GDP may not provide a full pic- ture of the overall achievements of an economy.
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