Seismic hazard analysis of Sinop province, Turkey using probabilistic and statistical methods Recai Feyiz Kartal1, Gunay¨ Beyhan2,∗ and Ayhan Keskinsezer2 1Earthquake Department, Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, Ankara, Turkey. 2Department of Geophysical Engineering, Sakarya University, Adapazarı-Sakarya 54187, Turkey. ∗Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected] Using 4.0 and greater magnitude earthquakes which occurred between 1 January 1900 and 31 December 2008 in the Sinop province of Turkey this study presents a seismic hazard analysis based on the proba- bilistic and statistical methods. According to the earthquake zonation map, Sinop is divided into first, second, third and fourth-degree earthquake regions. Our study area covered the coordinates between 40.66◦– 42.82◦N and 32.20◦– 36.55◦E. The different magnitudes of the earthquakes during the last 108 years recorded on varied scales were converted to a common scale (Mw). The earthquake catalog was then recompiled to evaluate the potential seismic sources in the aforesaid province. Using the attenuation relationships given by Boore et al.(1997) and Kalkan and G¨ulkan (2004), the largest ground accelera- tions corresponding to a recurrence period of 475 years are found to be 0.14 g for bedrock at the central district. Comparing the seismic hazard curves, we show the spatial variations of seismic hazard potential in this province, enumerating the recurrence period in the order of 475 years. 1. Introduction Since earthquake occurrence cannot be pre- vented,governments and organizations should work Considering the development and improvement towards minimizing the damage caused by earth- activities in recent years, Sinop province has quakes. The most important work in order to become a host to important projects for Turkey. reduce damage is the preparation a seismic hazard It is one of the most populated cities in the coun- map that will serve as a basis for the develop- try and hosts Turkey’s first nuclear power plant in ment of earthquake-resistant construction tech- the region. Thus, construction activities need to be niques. For setting the parameters for designing done as reliably as the seismic hazard of region per- earthquake-resistant structures, using the proba- mits (figure 1). The most important seismic activ- bilistic and statistical methods for determining ity which could affect the area is right directional seismic hazard estimation will be important and North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). NAF which useful. In this study, we aimed at determining the is one of the most important strike-slip fault sys- seismic hazards in the Sinop province using the tems known in the world has close resemblance probabilistic and statistical methods. with San Andreas Fault at California, USA. When Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) the epicenter map covering the years 1900–2011 is an estimate of exceedance probability in a given was examined, Sinop is shown in the highly active time period about levels of ground motion at regions of the country. different locations. The first step in establishing a Keywords. Turkey; seismic hazard; North Anatolian Fault; probabilistic. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 123, No. 3, April 2014, pp. 565–579 c Indian Academy of Sciences 565 566 Recai Feyiz Kartal et al. Figure 1. Tectonic sketch of the Arabia/Eurasia collision zone. Eastern Black Sea basin is located directly north of the tectonic escape of Anatolia. Dotted frame indicates the surveyed area. MBSH: Mid Black Sea High, NAF: North Anatolian Fault, EAF: East Anatolian Fault. Thick black arrows indicate motion of main crustal blocks with respect to Eurasia (modified from Rangin et al. 2002). reliable earthquake catalog is to compile records area is calculated by attenuation relationships of earthquakes from past years and examine the (Abrahamson and Silva 1997;Sadighet al. 1997). tectonic structure. The seismicity parameters of Many such seismic hazard studies are available source zones and earthquake forming capacities can today. be calculated by checking every record from earth- Ogata (1988) discussed several classes of stochas- quake source zones in the study area. Attenua- tic models to study the origin and magnitudes tion relationships are important parameters for the of earthquakes. This study selects a statistical calculation of the hazard analysis. More than one model for the standard activity of earthquake series attenuation relationships were used in this study. by comparing several possible models using likeli- This helped us to compare the obtained results. hood methods. In the next section, some possible Seismic hazard analysis can be done in two ways– stochastic models for seismic activity derived from Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) empirical studies, mainly of aftershock statistics, and the PSHA. In this study, PSHA was used. The are reviewed and discussed. first step of the DSHA approach is the determina- The Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequences tion of the biggest earthquake that occurred in the (ETAS) model is a point process representing past from the seismic sources in the study area. the temporal activity of earthquakes in a certain If the earthquake catalog is not old enough or if geophysical region for which a method for fast there are some deficiencies in the catalog then the and accurate computation of data is required. The value of the biggest earthquake can be increased present numerical procedures put the parameter to 0.54 units. The second step is to select the estimation of the ETAS model to practical use in most appropriate attenuation relationship that fits a large number of occurrence records (Bansal and the characteristics of the region. Largest ground Ogata 2010; Ogata 2011;Bansalet al. 2012). acceleration constituted on the bedrock at the The basis of statistical methods for the deter- project area caused by the biggest earthquake in mination of seismic hazards was first developed by terms of instrumental magnitude on the seismic Cornell (1968). Previously, only the least squares source located a certain distance from the project regression analyses were used (Chiaruttini and Seismic hazard analysis of Sinop province, Turkey 567 Siro 1981; Johnston 1996; Giardini et al. 1997; hazard and risk analyses performed for decision- Gasperini and Ferrari 2000). However, a number of making purposes. PSHA has allowed uncertainties methods have been developed later. In our knowl- in size, location, and rate of recurrence of earth- edge, the first general orthogonal regression (GOR) quakes, as well as in the variation of ground motion method to be applied to magnitude conversions characteristics with earthquake size and location, is the Chi-square regression (CSQ), proposed by to be explicitly considered in the evaluation of Stromeyer et al. (2004). Lolli and Gasperini (2012) seismic hazards (Kramer 1996). Also determining provide a comparison among general orthogonal the earthquake insurance premium a rate using regression methods applied to earthquake magni- stochastic methods was made by Deniz (2006). tude conversions. Such conversions were usually Seismic safety work of underground networks was done by empirical regressions using the ordi- made by Sel¸cuk and Y¨ucemen (2000). Conversely, nary least squares method (e.g., Chiaruttini and earthquake hazard of the Aegean extension region Siro 1981; Johnston 1996; Giardini et al. 1997; (West Turkey) was made by Polat et al.(2008). Gasperini and Ferrari 2000), which assumes that In this study, PSHA methodology based on the uncertainty of the independent variable is Cornell (1968) was applied for Sinop city and PGA negligible, and by the simple orthogonal regres- values 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years at sion approach (Ambraseys 1990; Gutdeutsch et al. rock sites were determined by using the attenuation 2002), which assumes that both variables have the relationships proposed by Boore et al. (1997)and same uncertainty. As such, assumptions are not Kalkan and G¨ulkan (2004). Finally, PGA zonation fully appropriate for magnitude data sets, the use maps were created for the study area by the CRI- of GOR methods, which assume a different uncer- SIS software (CRISIS 2003) prepared on the basis tainty for each of the two variables, are generally of Geographic Information System. preferable. There are strict analogies among these three methods even though their formulations may appear quite different (Lolli and Gasperini 2012). 2. Geology and tectonic Turkey is an important area in terms of seismic risk. For this reason, a large number of seismic Paleozoic metamorphic rocks constitute the main risk analyses must be conducted in the central set- formations at Sinop. Metamorphic series around tlement areas. In a study in the Antalya region, the Boyabat and Duraan districts are spread over time and space windows proposed by Deniz and awideareaontheeastandsouth–westdirection. Y¨ucemen (2005) for earthquakes with moment Upper Cretaceous flysch and limestone occur at the magnitudes ≥4.5, were used. As described by Deniz south of T¨urkeli–Gerze line. This segment gener- and Y¨ucemen (2005), the earthquakes that fall ally consists of layers of thick sandstone, marl and into the space and time windows defined for the marly limestone. Eocene flysch series consists of magnitude level of a preceding earthquake with thin-bedded, poorly cemented sandstone and marl larger magnitude are classified as aftershocks of around the Ayancık and Erfelek. The Neogene fly- this event. If a larger magnitude earthquake occurs sch at the Karasu Valley, southwest of the city in a later time and space window of a smaller mag- center, consists of coarse-grained conglomerates nitude earthquake, this event is classified as the and gres. At the west of the Sinop province and foreshock of the larger magnitude earthquake. To north of the Gerze, there are Pleistocene-aged implement the space and time windows proposed series covering large areas consisting of sand and by Deniz and Y¨ucemen (2005) and Deniz (2006), clay beds. Upper cretaceous volcanic rocks are the magnitudes of earthquakes in the whole catalog found in some places at the Cape Sinop (Boztepe) should be converted to moment magnitude scale.