Political science

Dadabaeva Z.A. Transformation Processes in Central Asia on the Background of Intraregional Conflicts

Review. This article explores certain problems within the current processes of regionalization in Central Asia as a means of self-identification of the region in the new conditions. The different starting potential for economic devel- opment among the newly independent states has predefined the strategy for forming intergovernmental relations. A special attention is given to the analysis of the political situation in the region after collapse of the Soviet Union in the context of problems concerning disputed territories and ques- tions of the use of water resources of transboundary rivers. Unfair (in the opinion of the countries of Central Asia) division of state borders demarcated during the Soviet era still prevents the regional neighbors from structuring an adequate relations. Territorial conflicts often result in armed clashes. The water-energy resource is another important factor of cooperation in Central Asia and often leads to an open confrontation between the states of the upper reaches of the transboundary rivers and the countries of the lower reaches concerning the use of the hydroelectric potential. The article implements factor analysis and interdisciplinary approach in studying the intraregional conflicts regarding the use of water resources of the trans- boundary rivers. The author reviews various attempts of intergovernmental

AURORA Group s.r.o. (www.aurora-group.eu) & NB-MEDIA Ltd. (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA collaboration and the causes that stand in the way of these processes. The article reveals the negative role of the border, energy and water conflicts within the regional cooperation. Researching the processes of transforma- tion in Central Asia allowed the author to determine that the political and economic development of the countries progresses unevenly, and forms on the background of objective and subjective factors. The low level of intra- regional cooperation outside integrational unions leads to economic and political dependency of each of the countries upon the influential global players. Keywords: international organizations, border conflicts, regionalization, prob- lems of transboundary rivers, territory, transformation, Central Asia, integration, conflict of interests, international relations.

70 DOI: 10.7256/1339–3057.2015.1.14703 Dadabaeva Z.A.

constant topic amongst experts The period of establishing of the new is the problems of regional de- post-Soviet countries within the region velopment of the countries of was developing differently, but even within Central Asia in the context of transformationalA processes. First and fore- countries proclaimed the principles of buildingthe first yearsdemocratic of independence states, refusing all of the the region and its capability for independent further development according to planned economicmost, it is andthe levelpolitical of self-identification existence after the of economy, which was very appealing to the European countries and the United States. Despite the fact that geographically and The countries of the region have adopted economicallycollapse of the the USSR. nations of the Central Asia the values, standards and political respon- can compose a single geopolitical region, sibilities declared by the international orga- the level of intergovernmental relations nizations (UN, OSCE), as well as democratic remains in the state of strong dependency states. At the same time, we can note that upon the intraregional controversies and after so many years of independence none the role of external actors. Thus, to speak of the countries of Central Asia have built - a truly democratic state. On the contrary, gional connections within the region is out of stablethe question; and mutually the economic beneficial relations intrare authoritarian regimes with some external with third parties supersede the regional democraticwe can confirm attributes that these (referendums, countries presiare of- connectedness. The states of the region are dential and parliament elections, activities of supposedly opposition political parties materials and energy sources that results and social movements). In all actuality, the insignificantly an economic dependent criterion on of the regionalization, export of raw only countries that have some oppositional which forms within the region in a rather - problematic manner and causes contro- versies within the correlation of national powerUntil (with 2010, certain the exceptions)most advances are Kazakh in this interests of the regional players and leads stan and . to a political instability of the entire region. periodically taking action, the country had anregard active was civil Kyrgyzstan, society, and with conducted political parties legal, Positions of the countries civil and social reforms. A substantial role The political and economic situation within was played by the opposition, which practi- the region is being formed in such way that cally led to two revolutions, and in 2010, not the countries cannot objectively hold stable only resulting in change of leadership in the positions in the world as independent play- country, but also to the changes in the po- (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA ers. As a result, throughout the last 24 years litical structure from a presidential republic the newly independent states located in the to a parliamentary. But as it turned out, the Central Asia are constantly stand before parties and leaders that changed one an- a choice in their economic and political other have eventually ended up in the same preferences between the key global players positions of a corrupt leadership, further promoting favoritism and nepotism. This is Despite the declared and conducted “open door”such as policy, Russia, in otherChina, words Europe, a multi-vector and the US. policy, the decision making depends on the how Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who has come to ofpower key inpositions Kyrgyzstan to his in 2005relatives. on the The wave most of positions of the ruling elites. controversialthe “Tulip Revolution”, was the assignment has given aof number his son current situation, specific countries, and the

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Maxim Bakiyev the post of the director of - the Central Agency for Development, Invest- nate and conduct their own internal policy ment and Innovation, who practically had lows Kazakhstan and to domi- the authority of a Prime-Minister. Among other factors, this has served as a cause for economies;within the region, in other and evenwords, invest they (Kazakh can be calledstan) into the the“locomotives” Tajikistan’s of and the Kyrgyzstan’s economy in the region. Uzbekistan,the April 2010 the revolution opposition in is Kyrgyzstan virtually non- and - existent;the impeachment dissidents of areKurmanbek subject to Bakiyev. persecu In- publics of Central Asia have gotten their in- tion and receive lengthy prison sentences. In dependenceSince the without collapse planning of the USSR,for it initially. the re Tajikistan, there is also no real oppositional force, despite the existence of a multiparty rightfully notes, the goal was to reform the - As a Kazakh historian Asylbek Bisenbaev sance Party and the Communist Party of Ta- but preserve the unity. The republics viewed jikistansystem. Onlyare de two jure parties, considered the Islamic oppositional, Renais theUSSR; consequences to democratize of the the failure relations of the within entire it, but de facto do not have realistic leverage allowing them to stand their positions and aggravation in interethnic relations, and are constantly subject to persecution from USSR system as a break in the economic ties,[1]. Thus the countries were choosing the the election season. Practically all leaders of pathinflux of of their the masses future developmentof conflict potential based on the oppositionofficial authorities, in Turkmenistan especially are during either their own domestic economic, resource and convicted and are serving a prison sentence, intellectual capabilities. Considering the fact or live in exile overseas. that the countries of Central Asia despite The republics of Central Asia are very di- their certain peculiarities were an intrinsic verse in their political weight and status not part to a once united country, the leadership only in the world, but also within the region. of the republics understood the importance They hold different positions based on the and the need for regional integration as a level of their economic development. Two functional mechanism for solving border, leaders and “perpetual adversaries” within Any integrational contacts could be useful which compared to other states, possess inwater, the resolutionenergy, trade, of disputes and other between conflicts. the the region are Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, heads of states. holds a 9th place among the countries with In order to coordinate trade relations largethe largest territories territories and population. in the world. Kazakhstan Uzbeki- and address political issues the countries

AURORA Group s.r.o. (www.aurora-group.eu) & NB-MEDIA Ltd. (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA stan has the highest number of population have come to a decision on bringing together within the region of 30.5 million citizens, the formerly united republics under the and holds 42nd place in the world. By their Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). GDP both countries stand far ahead of their Despite all the negatives of the CIS that are a regional neighbors. According to the 2013 constant topic among the experts and politi- - cians the organization continues to carry out its certain intermediary and peacekeeping billiondata of USD,the World while Bank Turkmenistan the GDP of is Kazakh at 73.4 role. Some of the member states are making billionstan is USD,395 billion Tajikistan USD, at Uzbekistan — 20.6 billion USD, 156 effort to not only protect the organization, but to also revamp it; thus the president of

mineralsand Kyrgyzstan and fuel at and18.4 energy billion resourcesUSD. al- development concept for the CIS. In 1992 Possessing significant deposits of raw Kazakhstan even proposed devising a new

72 DOI: 10.7256/1339–3057.2015.1.14703 Dadabaeva Z.A. the countries of Central Asia have joined the slow pace. This was due to the fact that the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) along with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Azer- their ethnic and civilizational identity, at- baijan. The ECO is a regional transnational temptingcountries towere gradually striving distance to find themselvesand revive economic structure that was formed in 1985 from anything that tied them to their Soviet by Iran, Pakistan and Turkey, and functioned past. From the times of the union the re- based on the Treaty of Izmir signed by the publics retained many unresolved issues. three countries on March 12, 1977. At the Among them are the historically arbitrary national-territorial division of the repub- region have signed the protocol on creation lics of Central Asia, which took place in the regional level, in 1993 five nations of the- 1920–1930’s and became one of the most painful moments in the historical past of anof a agreement new common on market.the Common In 1994, Economic Kazakh the nations. The issues of delimitation and Spacestan, Uzbekistan that would ans secure Kyrgyzstan the freedomhave signed of demarcation of the borders with neighbors moving goods, services, capital, workforce, were not resolved in any of the republics; and accord in the customs and currency it happened much later, and not in all of policies. Although short lived, in 2002 the the countries. The most radical solution Organization of Central Asian Cooperation of the border problems was introduced by (OCAC) was formed; in 2005 it merged with Turkmenistan when they announced a visa the Eurasian Economic Community (EurA- requirement for all the neighboring states in sEC) that was succeeded by the Eurasian 1999. At the bilateral Uzbekistan-Turkmen- Economic Union (EEU) in 2014, taking in istan talks on delimitation of shared border two new member-states from Central Asia. in 1999–2000 the former inter-republic bor- With the exception of the latter, all these der was recognized as intergovernmental. organizations did not bring the countries to From 2000 to 2002 the bilateral Uzbekistan- the expected results due to the limitation of their political and economic resources. The of borders has also resolved the disputed EAEC has just begun to function and it is still areasKazakhstan of these commission nations. As to on the delimitation Uzbekistan- too early to speak of any results. It is worth noting that the collapse of The two countries have disagreements over 58Kyrgyzstan parts of the border, land thethat issue range is from still ongoing. 500m in size, all the way to 20km [8]. There is yet to be organizationsthe key integrating at a new elements market of level.the USSR The a demarcation and delimitation of the bor- needhas predefined for a new integration the economic was nature strengthened of these der between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The by the realization of a complex of common - (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA social and environmental problems; the stan and Tajikistan are subject to constant economies of the countries required a seri- issues of border control between Kyrgyz ous modernization and their effective solu- as the borderline is only 60% complete [8]. struggles,The current often inter-republic resulting in borders armed continueconflicts and effort, for which none of the countries to remain not as much intergovernmental as tion depended on unification of resources- they are territorial-administrative. cal capabilities. The territorial and transnational con- individually had the financial or technologi Transformational processes The political cooperation within the region sides.flicts haveMoreover, and still some often portions result ofin the clashes bor- derbetween between the populationsUzbekistan and of the Tajikistan conflicting are was forming in an extremely difficult and DOI: 10.7256/1339–3057.2015.1.14703 73 Political science

different economic priorities compared to side in a unilateral manner under the pre- tenseminefields. of a threat Thus, of crossingin 1999 ofthe militants Uzbekistan from and Turkmenistan. As a result, the countries the Tajikistan territory that borders with the werethe resource-rich attempting toKazakhstan, structure theirUzbekistan politi- part of Afghanistan known to harbor the mil- cal future independently or with the help itants of an extremist Islamic movement of of their new partners represented by the Uzbekistan, have set mines on the portions developed countries, ignoring the interests of their border. This led to many human ca- of their regional neighbors. sualties among the population conducting Another factor that affects the transfor- shepherding near the border. Based on the mational processes in Central Asia is the data of the Tajikistan center on the mine is- unspoken competition between Uzbekistan sues, between the year 2000 and 2012 there were over 80 casualties and approximately at the same time, Uzbekistan so far seems 100 wounded civilians from the mines set by toand stand Kazakhstan in the second for the regionalplace. This leadership; race for the Uzbekistan [9]. A similar situation can be the regional leadership is being greatly found at the border between Uzbekistan and

membersoutweighed of theby Customsthe increasing Union (CU)influence and the of andKyrgyzstan, stability where of the some entire parts region of the directly border EurasianKazakhstan Economic as one of Union the founders (EAEU), and as well active as dependshas also been on the turned economic into a and minefield. environmen Safety- the integrational initiatives of its president. tal state of the main agricultural region of Due to the emerged political necessity to [11]. This - is precisely where the enclaves and disputed sia, who is the principal integrator of the Centralterritories Asia — are located. the Fergana At the Valley southern part expand the EAEU and the influence of Rus

Uzbek enclaves of Shohimardon and Sokh, TajikistanCU and EAEU, in the Kazakhstan important can regional change water their of Kyrgyzstan in the are the andpriorities energy and issue. side with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will most likely not be satis- territoriesTajik enclave are , the center and of in constant Uzbekistan — issues the Kyrgyz village of Barak. Today, these water distribution and use of agricultural thefied independentwith the secondary and special role instatus the region, of his resources.with transportation isolation, conflicts with country.as Islam KarimovIt is worth has mentioning repeatedly that underlined in order Thus the interruption of electricity, sup- to strengthen their position in the world the ply of drinking and irrigation water within republic is actively cooperating with the

AURORA Group s.r.o. (www.aurora-group.eu) & NB-MEDIA Ltd. (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA the region (including in the ) European countries and the United States, result in the escalation of social tensions and - sues of ensuring regional security, which is regions where the disputed water channels ofespecially great importance in the military due to field the neighboring and the is andtransnational rivers are conflictslocated [3] in. the near-border and constantly warring Afghanistan. It is The collapse of the Soviet Union re- possible that Tashkent would undertake sulted in the differentiation in the level of certain actions in order to raise its status social and economic development among the newly independent states. The less economically developed and territorially securitywithin the issues region. using As thea fine regional strategist, proximity Islam smaller but more densely populated Ta- toKarimov Afghanistan often andfocuses Pakistan, the attention where many on the of the terrorist organizations are concentrated.

jikistan and Kyrgyzstan had significantly 74 DOI: 10.7256/1339–3057.2015.1.14703 Dadabaeva Z.A.

For the foreign players it is very important to understand just how the problems of effec- and Syr Darya, which provide irrigation tive management of the borders, regulation ofthe farmland main rivers throughout of Central Asia —the entire Amu region. Darya But this is namely the cause for the heated intraregional arguments, as the water is in beof theresolved. migrant flow, fight against organized higher demand by the more economically crime, human, drug and arms trafficking will Problems with water usage opinion of experts seems very reasonable on The countries of Central Asia possess a vast thedeveloped fact that Uzbekistan “the water and issue Kazakhstan. was (and Thestill energy potential, developed energy infra- structure, and a convenient geopolitical the poor countries at the conference table location between Europe and South Asia. withis — Z.the D.) rich the neighbors,only wildcard and in is the sometimes hands of An important factor becomes the appropria- used as a method of exerting pressure tion of resources, including hydroelectric. upon other countries in order to resolve Water is the most important geoeconomic [3]. and strategic resource for development, The problem with water usage in Central and provides the ability to modernize the Asiaconflicts” has always existed, but has reached economy, social sphere, and control the new levels in the 1990’s. The collapse of the situation in Central Asia. Along with natural functioning system and strict control from gas and oil, water becomes a strategic and the “Center” led to the fact that the water political weapon that countries are attempt- issue has brought further tensions into the ing to utilize. regional relations and became one of the Due to the arid climate and the practi- factors preventing regional integration. cal importance of water for the livelihood Not all of the countries are prepared to of population and agriculture of the region, resolve the water and energy issues with the transboundary nature of the two large consideration of the interest of other sides. river systems Syr Darya and Amu Darya, The problems of water and energy supply located on the territory of Central Asia and are viewed by some of them strictly from the perspective of national security and the water usage for the purpose of irrigation protection of their national interests. The andKazakhstan, energy production.elevates the One need of tothe regulate causes - replacement for the “regulating arm” of the ated with respecting the economic interests Sovietcountries authority” were unable [5]. The to strategy find an “adequatefor stable infor maintaining disagreements and are using the difficultiesthe hydroelectric associ development, including water policy, is one objects in the zones of formation of the river of the key and intrinsic parts of the national (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA runoffs, when the main costs for maintaining strategies. But the non-regulatory nature of the regional irrigational systems in working the rendered decisions and lack of responsi- order lies on the shoulders of Tajikistan and bility for noncompliance leave the intergov- ernmental water and energy problems unre- - solved. This is caused by the disagreements stanKyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan. while the biggest consumers of and disconnection of actions at the regional the water resources are Uzbekistan, Kazakh and national levels between the states that have a lower potential for economic de- control the water resources, and those that velopment,Kyrgyzstan possess and theTajikistan, bigger part although of the use them. The situation is aggravated by the regional reserves of fresh water, and their lo- absence of functional intergovernmental au- cation allows them to regulate the runoffs of thorities on water and energy management.

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Despite the regularity of talks and projects republics. The Nuek Dam alone would allow of intergovernmental agreements on the the same Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to issues of water usage, holding regional con- mutually hydrate 7.4 million acres of land. ferences and summits, the situation remains On another hand, using Turkmenistan’s riv- unchanged. But without devising mutual and ers (Syr Darya, Panj and Vakhsh) the neigh- collaborative principles on rational usage of the water resources, any stable regional which in the opinion of the riverhead coun- unity is out of the question. triesbors violatesare not the eager 1997 to UN share Convention their profits, on the The current agenda is also affected by Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of Inter- the questions of rational usage of hydro- national Watercourses. By the International

energy system of the countries of Central entitled to compensation and portion of the electric resources and creation of a unified- Maritime Law, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are tion of the transboundary rivers does not resources of the republics. Asia. Raising the issues of rational utiliza profitsOn theearned issues from of usage the usage of the oftransbound the water- the development of any possible mutually - only result in new conflicts, but also hinders ated at the lower reaches of the river, are leads to open confrontation between the stillary rivers, in the Kazakhstansimilar positions. and Uzbekistan After the talkssitu headsbeneficial of states relations, (Uzbekistan which andin turn Tajikistan, again with his colleague in June 2013, President Nursultan Nazarbayev has stated the need to relations between Dushanbe and Tashkent “ensure the transparency and consideration wasUzbekistan partially and caused Kyrgyzstan). by Tajikistan’s The cooling decision of of the interests of all the countries of the region. We are certain that the cooperation In September of 2014 Uzbekistan has in this life-important area is only possible onceto build again the stated Rogun their Dam positionin 2008. before UN based on dialogue, strengthening of mutual on the unacceptability of construction of any trust, and without any confrontation. Issues large hydroelectric power plants with giant of one nation should not be resolved at the dams that can disrupt the natural runoff of expense of another.” [7] - the transboundary rivers, without a thor- gyzstan however, hold the opposite position, ough analysis of all possible consequences. and intend to solve their. economicTajikistan problems and Kyr Construction of hydroelectric objects such via their hydroelectric potential. But due to - the emerging political necessity to expand stan (with combined capacity of both plants - as Kambarata Hydro Power Plants in Kyrgyz

AURORA Group s.r.o. (www.aurora-group.eu) & NB-MEDIA Ltd. (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA (with projected capacity of 3.600 MW and the Customs Union and influence from Rus ais 335m2,260 MW)dam) and would Rogun pose Plant a threat in Tajikistan to the thesia, opportunityKazakhstan mayto smooth change out their the priorities.water and water, economic and environmental security powerRussia’s issues integrational in Central Asia, position where provided the situ- of Central Asia, and can lead to the increase ation with the water resources constantly worsens. By amount of fresh water reserves potential within the region [6]. The president inof theUzbekistan tensions has and openly growth stated of the that conflict the - ishedKyrgyzstan by approximately and Tajikistan 25%. are Theonly melting second toof can result in a war (in the region). At the theRussia. glaciers But thehas glacial been affected reserves by have the factorsdimin sameexpansion time, ofduring the Rogun the Soviet Dam era in theTajikistan launch other than the global warming alone. The countries of the region are still using some not only Tajikistan, but also the neighboring archaic farming systems, which exceed the of some of the Vakhsh River plants benefited

76 DOI: 10.7256/1339–3057.2015.1.14703 Dadabaeva Z.A. modern global standards of water usage per Promoting regional cooperation, includ- unit of produce by anywhere from 3 to 10 ing investing into the hydroelectric projects, - tov on the subject that “instead of using the but also the neighboring countries, primar- currenttimes. It reserves is hard to to argue serve with the waterAzhdar needs, Kur ilyhas Afghanistan. already benefited Back in not2005 only the energyTajikistan, au- remove the “bottlenecks”, and reduce the thorities of Tajikistan and Afghanistan have signed the memorandum of understanding the irrigation systems, the region’s countries for supplying 300 MW of Tajik energy to losses caused by unrefined management[4]. of Afghanistan during the spring and summer At the same time, we cannot disagree seasons. Based on the data from the Agency withprefer the to experts create conflict on the fact atmosphere” that it is namely the integration of the states exporting the of Tajikistan, the January-October of 2014 natural resources with the countries pos- exporton Statistics of energy under to President Afghanistan of the has Republic super- sessing vast hydroelectric potential that can seded the 2013 numbers by almost 40%. speed up the development of not only hydro- Export of roughly 1.8 million kWh per day electricity, but also the region as a whole [2]. continues even while Tajikistan imposes One of the main problems in the hydro- limitations on energy usage for its own electric segment of the countries of Central citizens. In January of 2015 alone, Tajikistan Asia remains the need for a renewal of its has exported approximately 55 million kWh key funds and integration of national fuel of energy to Afghanistan. The revenue from and energy complexes of the CIS. This is re- this export amounted to 2 million USD [10]. lated to the fact that even geographically the Examining the processes of transforma- delivery of energy resources does not always tion in Central Asia demonstrates that the align with the state borders. National energy political and economic development of the countries is tightly linked with resolution large power projects. The supply of energy re- of a whole complex of common regional sourcesmarkets at are the insufficient intergovernmental in order level to realize helps problems. Among them are: irrational us- to ensure the energy security of the countries. age of water resources of transboundary The reforms in these countries are primarily directed towards creation of ef- management of energy resources, lack of fective energy markets that would attract rivers, inefficient irrigational policies, poor larger investments. For example, using disputes and delimitation of borders, and direct investments (over 16 billion rubles) thecontrol issues over of transportationthe migrant flow, infrastructure. territorial The regional cooperation develops un- the Sangtuda 1 Hydroelectric Power Plant evenly, inconsequentially, and is dependent (www.nbpublish.com) Ltd. & NB-MEDIA (www.aurora-group.eu) s.r.o. Group AURORA inRussia Tajikistan. has completed The completion the construction of the project of on objective and subjective factors. The en- has also marked the end of a longstanding tirety of bilateral issues between Uzbekistan

The Sangtuda 1 Hydroelectric Power Plant regulation if the runoff of the Vakhsh River. contextand Kyrgyzstan, of common Uzbekistan territorial and and Tajikistan, energy of hydroelectric stations, which reduced Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, form within the became the fifth step of the Vakhsh cascade usage. provides approximately 50% of the overall problems,It is unfortunate and conflicts that relatedit is necessary to water to energythe seasonal production energy in Tajikistan; deficit by and 30% that and is state the low level of intraregional collabo- another move forward towards resolving a ration outside of integrational unions. The prolonged energy dispute in the region. strict centralization of power within the

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countries does not provide the opportunity which will include regional ties and creation for mutual projects at a regional level with- out participation of economically-strong that is based on the stimulation of intergov- international players. ofernmental a stable relationsand conflict-free with consideration system, is one of The most favorable atmosphere for the national interests of all of the states of regional cooperation within Central Asia, Central Asia.

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