THE FINAL WORD Issue 122 Nov. 12, 2004

Alan Guebert

1.) Rust and rust panic

News early Wednesday that USDA had confirmed the presence of Phakopsora pacyrhizi, or Asian soybean rust, in two Louisiana State University-maintained research plots hit farmers and the markets like a sledge hammer. By mid-day, the ag press fell in line to report the dire consequences of the discovery: reduced soybean plantings nationwide; $20 to $25 per acre increased production costs; 15% to 80% reduction in yields; a shortage of fungicide to treat infected acres. By late Wednesday afternoon--perhaps winded by their morning sprints--both the markets and farmers began to calm. Chicago soybean futures, up 31-cents on initial reports of the disease, settled 12-cents higher for the day. Thursday then brought this shocking news: the world had not ended. Why? Because a careful review of the facts--we got ours from the best soybean extension agronomist we know, Iowa State’s Palle Pederson--shows soybean rust here will be very different from soybean rust there--Brazil and several African nations. First, it is very likely that this year’s active and late hurricane season did indeed bring the rust spores to Louisiana as USDA suspects. Five weeks ago Pederson and a colleague ran computer simulations, based on National Weather Service data gathered during the September hurricanes that pummeled the American Gulf Coast, and predicted soybean rust spores from South America likely made it to America. Unlike USDA, however, the models showed the series of late-season hurricanes did the trick, not a big one by itself like Hurricane Ivan. The rust spores likely were shuttled to the Gulf Coast by the unprecedented wave of storms. The models, explains Pederson, are “good enough” to refute ideas that farmers, USDA officials, plant breeders or others accidentally brought rust into America. Moreover, since rust spores are an “obligated parasite”--they need living plant material to survive--South American soy importers and seed companies bringing Southern Hemisphere seed into the US can also be scratched as a likely source. Parasite is the key, he stresses. Since rust needs a living host to survive, the lack of a living host means importers, researchers or travelers weren’t the carrying culprits. More importantly, Midwestern winters and most Delta winters are too harsh to allow the rust to survive season-to-season on living plants. Southern states like Louisiana, though, often remain warm enough to harbor the fungus year around. In fact, says Pederson, Asia rust can be found in nearly 90 plants other than soybeans. Kudzu, almost as common as air in most Southern states, is a one widespread host. Many of the hosts easily survive mild Coastal winters. The weather difference between the South and the Midwest also means that Asian soybean rust must travel to key Midwestern soybean areas each year --“just like corn rust does every year,” Pederson explains--in order to reduce yields. And it likely will, he explains. But the airborne arrival doesn’t mean rust will always find a Midwestern home. Conditions must be receptive when it arrives for it to impact yields. According to the soybean specialists, rust loves moisture, high humidity and moderate temperatures. In short, too dry and it dies; too warm and it dies. A pleasant, almost perfect growing season like 2004 would, however, be a boon to rust. A dry, hot growing season like 2003 would be a bust to rust. Rust treatments are available. Syngenta currently markets a fungicide that is foliar applied once rust appears--usually at or after full canopy. The cost is a steep $20 per acre. Also, since most US farmers do not spray soybeans at that late stage, Extension agronomists are now examining equipment, techniques and economics growers may soon need to combat the disease if and when it arrives. On a more hopeful note, Pederson relates that Brazilian growers--who spend an estimated $1 billion per year fighting the fungus--are getting a better handle on how to attack it. “They are learning how to time fungicide applications better. In fact, most Brazilian producers only spray once after the rust appears.” “More importantly,” he adds, “they have discovered that spraying for rust kills other diseases and some growers have actually improved overall yields after spraying.” But, he warns, Southern US growers will be hit first and he urges them to “spend the next eight months learning all they can about rust.”

2.) Veneman coy about future at USDA

In a press teleconference Tuesday to tout the Economic Research Service’s just- released record $77.5 billion net farm income forecast for 2004, Secretary of Agriculture Ann Veneman was asked if she would remain as USDA chief in a second Bush term. The questions, the first two asked Veneman by the press, and Veneman’s answers went like this:

QUESTION: "This is a question for Secretary Veneman. Can you talk about the prospects for your remaining on in the next administration?" SEC. VENEMAN: "Somehow I thought I might get asked that question today. As you know, we in the cabinet serve at the pleasure of the President. And I can continue to serve at the pleasure of the President. I think he's made it clear that he will be making decisions on personnel in the coming days and weeks. And so in the meantime we continue to do our jobs as well as we possibly can, which is what we want to be doing." MODERATOR: "Our next question ... go ahead, please." QUESTION: "Well, thank you very much... Madame Secretary. My question is whether or not you intend to stay if the President will have you continue." SEC. VENEMAN: Well, as I have said many times, it is an honor to serve in this position, and it is up to the President to make that kind of decision."

The weak, indirect questions permit weak, indirect and dismissive answers. Farmers and ranchers learned nothing about the Secretary’s future at USDA. Which got us to thinking, how would Secretary Veneman liked to have answered the inquiries? What would she have said if what she thought actually crossed her lips? Our best guess follows. QUESTION: “Can you talk about the prospects for your remaining in the next administration?" ANSWER THE CROSSED VENEMAN’S MIND: “I’d love to talk about my prospects for remaining in the next Administration but no one in the White House talks to me. Ever. Let me say that that’s not usual because no one in the White House talks to any Cabinet secretary unless my colleagues and I are needed for campaign appearances or to assure the American public that free trade is good and mad cows really aren’t mad. “But, as you know, I serve at the pleasure of Karl Rove. Karl had hoped my appointment at USDA would swing into the red column in 2004, but that didn’t happen, did it? “I would point out, however, that we did get the majority of the non-gay Latino artificial inseminator vote in Tulare County. “And I must add that states I campaigned in over the last five months went mostly red. There’s a reason for that. “Reuters claims that I handed out almost $600 million in USDA grants and goodies in those states during my, ahem, official visits. Actually, it was much more than that; more like a billion. Hey, it had to be spent so I handed it out like Halloween candy. “No, the real reason is that ’s daughter--the other daughter!--traveled with me and the farmers loved her. You know, she’s just like her father: tough but feminine, good with guns, and absolutely unflappable. She was terrific. “I’m sorry, what was the question? “Oh, right, serving the President and Mr. Rove. Well, I served both a glass of bovine growth hormone milk election night while we waited for Ohio to turn red. (We knew it would once those farm votes came to town.) They, like the rest of America, did not know that 80% of the US milk supply contains technology--and we ain’t talking NutraSweet, baby. And they loved it. And I loved serving it to them. So, yes, I like serving. “In the meantime, or while the President decides, I’ll continue to do my job as well as I possibly can. “That means I’ll stall on country of origin labeling, not allow mean old Chuck Grassley to cap farm program payments, reward meatpackers whose freezers are full of 50-cent Canadian beef by reopening the US border to them, and continue to give biotech a free hand in everything I do and say at USDA. “Who’s next? QUESTION: “My question is whether or not you intend to stay if the President will have you continue.” ANSWER THE CROSSED VENEMAN’S MIND: “Well, as I have said many times, it is an honor to serve in this position. Besides, it has improved my posture despite the heavy burdens placed on me by agribusiness. You know, it hasn’t been easy balancing all the needs of those who have required government assistance in the last four years: Cargill, ADM, Monsanto, Tyson Foods, Smithfield, Bunge, DuPont, my great friends at the NCBA and the Pork Producers, the two actual farmers and one rancher I met, the Board of Trade, the Farm Bureau, Soybean Association, all the trade ministers from like Argentina, Australia and Honduras as well as justices Clarence Thomas and Anthony Scalia who called about the checkoff cases. “I mean, just look at that list. I’m more of business consultant and a paralegal than a secretary of agriculture. This is a tough job, but with the direction provided me by the White House and the Business Roundtable and the wonderful people I serve with from ConAgra, the NCBA and Sparks, I was able to position US agriculture for the future. “Now, will I continue if the President wants me to continue? “Well, sure. But I think the President knows that most of us in the Cabinet--like Don Evans over at Commerce and that big teddy bear who can really sing, Attorney General --really want to use our experiences from the last four years to just cash in. “The President understands. I mean, he did it, right? “So, yes, I wouldn’t mind joining eight or 12 corporate boards, become a trustee at some great institution--say the Hudson Institute--open a legal (ha-ha) office to help old friends make new friends in Congress and maybe even buy a condo in London. “But if the President needs me--and I wouldn’t know why because there’s no one in Congress or on the farm or ranch anymore that can possibly derail his plan of selling US agriculture to the Saudis in order to balance the budget deficit and give more meaningful tax cuts to the hard-working 2% of Americas that really run the country--yes, I’ll stay.” MODERATOR: Thank you, Madame Secretary.

3.) Words from the still-blue East Coast:

--Dunk USDA’s ‘Messrs. Pillage and Plunder?’ “Hurry, hurry, hurry. Enviros will have a once-in-a-lifetime (or at least in a while) opportunity today for a little payback for one of their greatest nemeses. For a few bucks, they'll be able to ‘dunk’ Undersecretary of Agriculture Mark E. Rey and other officials as part of a fundraising effort for the Combined Federal Campaign. “The ‘Carnival Kick Off’ for the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) is at 11 a.m. today at the Whitten Patio at the Agriculture Department's headquarters. ‘Take a shot,’ the invitation flier says [for the dunking tank contest.] Cost is $2 for one ball, $5 for three or ‘press the target for $20...’ “Rey's participation alone may ensure a huge turnout... NRCS chief Bruce Knight and agriculture chief of staff Dale Moore are among the ‘dunkees.’ “Early enviro reaction to news of the Rey-as-target was electric. ‘In the interest of charity, the Sierra Club would like to offer up $100 or whatever it would take if that means Mr. Rey and his colleagues, Messrs. Pillage and Plunder, will be kept under water for a full 30 minutes each,’ said Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club's global warming program. Nov. 8, Washington Post.

--Wet and not well-liked: “The crowd at the Agriculture Department's Natural Resources Conservation Service carnival fundraiser waited eagerly Monday as the Alaskan grizzly approached the dunking booth. He bought a ball for $2 and threw it. “A hit would have sent Agriculture Undersecretary Mark E. Rey, a booster of the timber folks, into the pool. But the grizzly missed. “Rather than try again, the bear, aka Michael Degnan, an intern at the Alaska Wilderness League, opted for the $20 automatic dunk button, and into the drink went Rey as the crowd cheered. “As Rey climbed out and the bear began to waddle off, the undersecretary was heard to observe: ‘Bear hunting season is next week.’ “The carnival netted several thousand dollars and many employee pledges for the Combined Federal Campaign. Rey, dunked a dozen or so times, may have been come in second to NCRS chief Bruce Knight, a source said, ‘because a lot of his employees wanted a shot at him.’ ” Nov. 10, Washington Post.

--The benefits of free ag trade: “America's appetite for imported food is creating problems for the US economy. “Agriculture, one of the few big sectors of the economy that could be counted on to produce trade surpluses, has recently generated monthly deficits--a development that could worsen the nation's already significant trade imbalance. “According to the US Department of Agriculture, the US imported more agricultural goods than it exported in June and August, the first monthly trade deficits since 1986, when the Farm Belt was mired in a depression. " ‘It's very worrisome,’ said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist of banking giant Wells Fargo & Co. ‘We need agricultural trade surpluses more than ever because the nonagricultural deficit is ballooning.’ What's happening is partly a trade-off for the free-trade agreements signed by Washington. While those pacts, such as the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, lowered barriers to US farm exports, they also eased the entry of imported foods.” Nov. 8, Wall Street Journal.

--Jailed Americans outnumber American farmers: “The number of inmates in state and federal prisons rose 2.1 percent last year, even as violent crime and property crime fell, according to a study by the Justice Department released yesterday. “The continuing increase in the prison population, despite a drop or leveling off in the crime rate in the past few years, is a result of laws passed in the 1990's that led to more prison sentences and longer terms, said Allen J. Beck, chief of corrections statistics for the department's Bureau of Justice Statistics and an author of the report. “At the end of 2003, there were 1,470,045 men and women in state and federal prisons in the United States, the report found. In addition, counting those inmates in city and county jails and incarcerated juvenile offenders, the total number of Americans behind bars was 2,212,475 on Dec. 31 last year, the report said.” Nov. 8 New York Times.

--Leave Congress; hire the wife “At first glance, the reelection campaign of Rep. Scott McInnis, R-CO, looks downright frugal. In an age of million-dollar-plus House races, McInnis reported expenses of less than $150,000 in the year leading up to last week's election. “Of course, the McInnis campaign should have been cheap, since there was no campaign--he announced in the summer of 2003 that he would not seek another term. But his campaign committee has since reported expenditures of thousands of dollars each month--and much of the spending has accrued to the benefit of his wife, Lori. “The campaign without a candidate has paid Lori McInnis more than $40,000, plus a benefit plan of $1,150 per month, to serve as campaign manager. The campaign pays for the car and the cell phone she uses. It also has spent tens of thousands of dollars on restaurant, hotel and travel bills since McInnis ended his candidacy... “Mike Hesse, McInnis's chief of staff, said Lori McInnis is responsible for archiving the records from previous campaigns, for contributing money to other candidates and for dealing with the accounting firm the campaign hired to keep track of income and outgo. He said she generally works from home, and parks the campaign car there. He said she needed the car in May for events connected to the Colorado Republican convention...” Nov. 10, Washington Post.

© 2004 ag comm The Final Word comes to you each Friday by special arrangement. Alan Guebert's regular column, the Farm and Food File, is published weekly in more than 75 newspapers around the US and Canada. Contact him at [email protected].