THE FINAL WORD Issue 122 Nov. 12, 2004 Alan Guebert 1.) Rust and rust panic News early Wednesday that USDA had confirmed the presence of Phakopsora pacyrhizi, or Asian soybean rust, in two Louisiana State University-maintained research plots hit farmers and the markets like a sledge hammer. By mid-day, the ag press fell in line to report the dire consequences of the discovery: reduced soybean plantings nationwide; $20 to $25 per acre increased production costs; 15% to 80% reduction in yields; a shortage of fungicide to treat infected acres. By late Wednesday afternoon--perhaps winded by their morning sprints--both the markets and farmers began to calm. Chicago soybean futures, up 31-cents on initial reports of the disease, settled 12-cents higher for the day. Thursday then brought this shocking news: the world had not ended. Why? Because a careful review of the facts--we got ours from the best soybean extension agronomist we know, Iowa State’s Palle Pederson--shows soybean rust here will be very different from soybean rust there--Brazil and several African nations. First, it is very likely that this year’s active and late hurricane season did indeed bring the rust spores to Louisiana as USDA suspects. Five weeks ago Pederson and a colleague ran computer simulations, based on National Weather Service data gathered during the September hurricanes that pummeled the American Gulf Coast, and predicted soybean rust spores from South America likely made it to America. Unlike USDA, however, the models showed the series of late-season hurricanes did the trick, not a big one by itself like Hurricane Ivan. The rust spores likely were shuttled to the Gulf Coast by the unprecedented wave of storms. The models, explains Pederson, are “good enough” to refute ideas that farmers, USDA officials, plant breeders or others accidentally brought rust into America. Moreover, since rust spores are an “obligated parasite”--they need living plant material to survive--South American soy importers and seed companies bringing Southern Hemisphere seed into the US can also be scratched as a likely source. Parasite is the key, he stresses. Since rust needs a living host to survive, the lack of a living host means importers, researchers or travelers weren’t the carrying culprits. More importantly, Midwestern winters and most Delta winters are too harsh to allow the rust to survive season-to-season on living plants. Southern states like Louisiana, though, often remain warm enough to harbor the fungus year around. In fact, says Pederson, Asia rust can be found in nearly 90 plants other than soybeans. Kudzu, almost as common as air in most Southern states, is a one widespread host. Many of the hosts easily survive mild Coastal winters. The weather difference between the South and the Midwest also means that Asian soybean rust must travel to key Midwestern soybean areas each year --“just like corn rust does every year,” Pederson explains--in order to reduce yields. And it likely will, he explains. But the airborne arrival doesn’t mean rust will always find a Midwestern home. Conditions must be receptive when it arrives for it to impact yields. According to the soybean specialists, rust loves moisture, high humidity and moderate temperatures. In short, too dry and it dies; too warm and it dies. A pleasant, almost perfect growing season like 2004 would, however, be a boon to rust. A dry, hot growing season like 2003 would be a bust to rust. Rust treatments are available. Syngenta currently markets a fungicide that is foliar applied once rust appears--usually at or after full canopy. The cost is a steep $20 per acre. Also, since most US farmers do not spray soybeans at that late stage, Extension agronomists are now examining equipment, techniques and economics growers may soon need to combat the disease if and when it arrives. On a more hopeful note, Pederson relates that Brazilian growers--who spend an estimated $1 billion per year fighting the fungus--are getting a better handle on how to attack it. “They are learning how to time fungicide applications better. In fact, most Brazilian producers only spray once after the rust appears.” “More importantly,” he adds, “they have discovered that spraying for rust kills other diseases and some growers have actually improved overall yields after spraying.” But, he warns, Southern US growers will be hit first and he urges them to “spend the next eight months learning all they can about rust.” 2.) Veneman coy about future at USDA In a press teleconference Tuesday to tout the Economic Research Service’s just- released record $77.5 billion net farm income forecast for 2004, Secretary of Agriculture Ann Veneman was asked if she would remain as USDA chief in a second Bush term. The questions, the first two asked Veneman by the press, and Veneman’s answers went like this: QUESTION: "This is a question for Secretary Veneman. Can you talk about the prospects for your remaining on in the next administration?" SEC. VENEMAN: "Somehow I thought I might get asked that question today. As you know, we in the cabinet serve at the pleasure of the President. And I can continue to serve at the pleasure of the President. I think he's made it clear that he will be making decisions on personnel in the coming days and weeks. And so in the meantime we continue to do our jobs as well as we possibly can, which is what we want to be doing." MODERATOR: "Our next question ... go ahead, please." QUESTION: "Well, thank you very much... Madame Secretary. My question is whether or not you intend to stay if the President will have you continue." SEC. VENEMAN: Well, as I have said many times, it is an honor to serve in this position, and it is up to the President to make that kind of decision." The weak, indirect questions permit weak, indirect and dismissive answers. Farmers and ranchers learned nothing about the Secretary’s future at USDA. Which got us to thinking, how would Secretary Veneman liked to have answered the inquiries? What would she have said if what she thought actually crossed her lips? Our best guess follows. QUESTION: “Can you talk about the prospects for your remaining in the next administration?" ANSWER THE CROSSED VENEMAN’S MIND: “I’d love to talk about my prospects for remaining in the next Administration but no one in the White House talks to me. Ever. Let me say that that’s not usual because no one in the White House talks to any Cabinet secretary unless my colleagues and I are needed for campaign appearances or to assure the American public that free trade is good and mad cows really aren’t mad. “But, as you know, I serve at the pleasure of Karl Rove. Karl had hoped my appointment at USDA would swing California into the red column in 2004, but that didn’t happen, did it? “I would point out, however, that we did get the majority of the non-gay Latino artificial inseminator vote in Tulare County. “And I must add that states I campaigned in over the last five months went mostly red. There’s a reason for that. “Reuters claims that I handed out almost $600 million in USDA grants and goodies in those states during my, ahem, official visits. Actually, it was much more than that; more like a billion. Hey, it had to be spent so I handed it out like Halloween candy. “No, the real reason is that Dick Cheney’s daughter--the other daughter!--traveled with me and the farmers loved her. You know, she’s just like her father: tough but feminine, good with guns, and absolutely unflappable. She was terrific. “I’m sorry, what was the question? “Oh, right, serving the President and Mr. Rove. Well, I served both a glass of bovine growth hormone milk election night while we waited for Ohio to turn red. (We knew it would once those farm votes came to town.) They, like the rest of America, did not know that 80% of the US milk supply contains Monsanto technology--and we ain’t talking NutraSweet, baby. And they loved it. And I loved serving it to them. So, yes, I like serving. “In the meantime, or while the President decides, I’ll continue to do my job as well as I possibly can. “That means I’ll stall on country of origin labeling, not allow mean old Chuck Grassley to cap farm program payments, reward meatpackers whose freezers are full of 50-cent Canadian beef by reopening the US border to them, and continue to give biotech a free hand in everything I do and say at USDA. “Who’s next? QUESTION: “My question is whether or not you intend to stay if the President will have you continue.” ANSWER THE CROSSED VENEMAN’S MIND: “Well, as I have said many times, it is an honor to serve in this position. Besides, it has improved my posture despite the heavy burdens placed on me by agribusiness. You know, it hasn’t been easy balancing all the needs of those who have required government assistance in the last four years: Cargill, ADM, Monsanto, Tyson Foods, Smithfield, Bunge, DuPont, my great friends at the NCBA and the Pork Producers, the two actual farmers and one rancher I met, the Board of Trade, the Farm Bureau, Soybean Association, all the trade ministers from like Argentina, Australia and Honduras as well as justices Clarence Thomas and Anthony Scalia who called about the checkoff cases.