Tmfs12 Public Transport Model Development
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Transport Model for Scotland 2012 (TMfS12) Transport Scotland National Public Transport Model Development Report 76619 September 2014 76619 TMFS12 PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL DEVELOPMENT Description: National Public Transport Model Development Report Date: 22 September 2014 Project Manager: Malcolm Neil Project Director: Boris Johansson SIAS Limited 37 Manor Place Edinburgh EH3 7EB UK tel: 0131-225 7900 fax: 0131-225 9229 [email protected] www.sias.com \\coral\ta1tmfs$\8_reports\moddev_pt\76619 pt mod_dev report.doc 76619 TMFS12 PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL DEVELOPMENT CONTENTS : Page 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Introduction 1 1.3 Background 2 2 MODEL DIMENSIONS 5 2.1 Time Periods 5 2.2 User Classes 5 2.3 Modes 6 3 PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK 7 3.1 Introduction 7 3.2 Public Transport Network 7 3.3 Public Transport Lines Data 8 3.4 Lines Coding 9 4 MATRIX DEVELOPMENT 17 4.1 Zone System 17 4.2 Data Sources 17 4.3 Matrix Development 17 5 ASSIGNMENT MODEL DEVELOPMENT 19 5.1 Introduction 19 5.2 Path Building and Loading 19 5.3 Crowding 19 5.4 Bus Speed Factors 21 5.5 Assignment Model Parameters 21 5.6 Wait Curves 22 5.7 Fares Model 23 6 MODEL COMPARISON WITH TMFS07 27 6.1 Introduction 27 6.2 Observed bus and rail passenger count data 27 6.3 Rail station boarding and alighting 27 6.4 Rail loading comparisons 28 6.5 Comparison of timetabled and modelled bus journey times. 28 6.6 Summary 28 22 September 2014 76619 7 MODEL VALIDATION 29 7.1 Introduction 29 7.2 Passenger Loading Comparisons 29 7.3 Rail Passenger Boarding/Alighting Comparisons 31 7.4 Rail Capacities 31 7.5 Comparison of Timetabled and Modelled Bus Journey Times 31 8 CONCLUSIONS 33 8.1 Conclusions 33 8.2 Validation 33 8.3 Recommendations 33 A BUS AND RAIL COUNT LOCATIONS 35 B TMFS07/TMFS12 PASSENGER LOADING COMPARISONS 45 B.1 AM Peak 45 B.2 Inter Peak 54 B.3 PM Peak 63 C TMFS07/TMFS12 RAIL BOARDINGS AND ALIGHTINGS 73 C.1 AM Peaks 73 C.2 Inter Peak 78 C.3 PM Peak 83 D TMFS07/TMFS12 RAIL PASSENGER LOADING COMPARISONS 89 E TMFS07/TMFS12 TIMETABLED AND MODELLED BUS JOURNEY TIME COMPARISONS 99 F TMFS12 PASSENGER LOADING COMPARISONS 105 F.1 AM Peak 105 F.2 Inter Peak 114 F.3 PM Peak 122 G TMFS12 RAIL BOARDINGS AND ALIGHTINGS 131 G.1 AM Peak 133 G.2 Inter Peak 138 G.3 PM Peak 143 H TMFS12 RAIL PASSENGER LOADING COMPARISONS 149 I TIMETABLED AND MODELLED BUS JOURNEY TIME COMPARISONS 159 22 September 2014 76619 TMFS12 PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL DEVELOPMENT FIGURES : Page Figure 1.1 : TMfS12 Model Hierarchy – National Public Transport Model Interaction 3 Figure 3.1 : Extent of Urban Area - Aberdeen 9 Figure 3.2 : Extent of Urban Area – Dundee 10 Figure 3.3 : Extent of Urban Area – Edinburgh 11 Figure 3.4 : Extent of Urban Area - Glasgow 12 Figure A.1 : Aberdeen Cordon Count Locations 37 Figure A.2 : Dundee Cordon Count Locations 39 Figure A.3 : Edinburgh Cordon Count Locations 40 Figure A.4 : Glasgow Cordon Count Locations 41 Figure A.5 : Inverness Cordon Count Locations 43 Figure I.1 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – AM Peak (1 of 4) 160 Figure I.2 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – AM Peak (2 of 4) 161 Figure I.3 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – AM Peak (3 of 4) 161 Figure I.4 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – AM Peak (4 of 4) 162 Figure I.5 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – Inter Peak (1 of 4) 164 Figure I.6 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – Inter Peak (2 of 4) 165 Figure I.7 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – Inter Peak (3 of 4) 165 Figure I.8 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – Inter Peak (4 of 4) 166 Figure I.9 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – PM Peak (1 of 4) 168 Figure I.10 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – PM Peak (2 of 4) 169 Figure I.11 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – PM Peak (3 of 4) 169 Figure I.12 : Bus Journey Time Comparisons – PM Peak (4 of 4) 170 22 September 2014 76619 22 September 2014 76619 TMFS12 PUBLIC TRANSPORT MODEL DEVELOPMENT TABLES : Page Table 2.1 : Peak Hour Factors 5 Table 3.1 : Public Transport Network Link Types 7 Table 3.2 : Number of Public Transport Services by Mode 13 Table 3.3 : Number of Services by Operator 14 Table 4.1 : Public Transport Matrix Totals (person trips) 17 Table 5.1 : PDFH Non-London Commuting Rail Crowding 20 Table 5.2 : Public Transport Assignment Model Parameters 22 Table 5.3 : Wait Times 23 Table 5.4 : Rail Fares (2012 prices) 24 Table 5.5 : Bus Fares (2012 prices) 24 Table 5.6 : Ferry Fares (2012 single fare prices) 25 Table 7.1 : Summary of PT Cal Val – Cordon Screenlines 30 Table 7.2 : Summary of PT Cal Val – Individual Sites 30 Table 7.3 : Summary of PT Cal Val – Individual Sites (Greater than 150 Passengers) 30 Table 7.4 : Boarding Alighting Summary 31 Table 7.5 : Journey Time Validation 32 Table A.1 : Aberdeen Cordon Count Locations 38 Table A.2 : Dundee Cordon Count Locations 39 Table A.3 : Edinburgh Cordon Count Locations 40 Table A.4 : Glasgow Cordon Count Locations 42 Table A.5 : Inverness Cordon Count Locations 43 Table B.1 : Aberdeen Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 45 Table B.2 : Aberdeen Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 45 Table B.3 : Dundee Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 45 Table B.4 : Dundee Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 46 Table B.5 : Edinburgh Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 46 Table B.6 : Edinburgh Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 47 Table B.7 : Glasgow Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 48 Table B.8 : Glasgow Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 49 Table B.9 : Inverness Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 49 Table B.10 : Inverness Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 50 22 September 2014 76619 Table B.11 : Lower Forth Crossing Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 50 Table B.12 : Lower Forth Crossing Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 50 Table B.13 : Lower Tay Crossing Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 50 Table B.14 : Lower Tay Crossing Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 50 Table B.15 : Other Key Links Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 51 Table B.16 : Other Key Links Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 52 Table B.17 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 52 Table B.18 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 52 Table B.19 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 53 Table B.20 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 53 Table B.21 : Aberdeen Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 54 Table B.22 : Aberdeen Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 54 Table B.23 : Dundee Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 54 Table B.24 : Dundee Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 55 Table B.25 : Edinburgh Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 55 Table B.26 : Edinburgh Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 56 Table B.27 : Glasgow Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 57 Table B.28 : Glasgow Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 58 Table B.29 : Inverness Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 58 Table B.30 : Inverness Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 59 Table B.31 : Lower Forth Crossing Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 59 Table B.32 : Lower Forth Crossing Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 59 Table B.33 : Lower Tay Crossing Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 59 Table B.34 : Lower Tay Crossing Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 59 Table B.35 : Other Key Links Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 60 Table B.36 : Other Key Links Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 61 Table B.37 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 61 Table B.38 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 61 Table B.39 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 62 Table B.40 : Central Scotland – East West Screenline Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 62 Table B.41 : Aberdeen Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 63 Table B.42 : Aberdeen Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 63 Table B.43 : Dundee Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 63 22 September 2014 76619 Table B.44 : Dundee Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 64 Table B.45 : Edinburgh Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 64 Table B.46 : Edinburgh Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 65 Table B.47 : Glasgow Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 66 Table B.48 : Glasgow Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 67 Table B.49 : Inverness Cordon Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 67 Table B.50 : Inverness Cordon Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 68 Table B.51 : Lower Forth Crossing Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 68 Table B.52 : Lower Forth Crossing Outbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 68 Table B.53 : Lower Tay Crossing Inbound Passengers (excludes Non ScotRail Services) 68 Table B.54 : Lower Tay Crossing Outbound Passengers (excludes