PHILIPPINE MASTER PLAN FOR CLIMATE RESILIENT FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT January 2016 Contents Page Table of Contents i List of Figures iv List of Tables v List of Acronyms/Abbreviations vi Definition of Terms xi Executive Summary xiv 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Rationale for Updating and Climate Proofing the 2003 RMPFD 1 1.2 Methodology 2 2. Status of Implementation of the 2003 Revised Master Plan for Forestry Development (RMPFD) 7 3. The Forestry Scenarios 14 3.1 Climate Trends and Climate Change Scenarios 16 3.1.1 Climate Trends in the Philippines 16 3.1.2 Future Climate Scenario and Associated Hazards 18 Increased Temperature 18 More Intense Rainfall Events 20 Typhoons 23 Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Storm Surges 24 3.1.3 Climate Change Impacts 25 Impacts on Ecosystems 26 Impacts on Water Supply 26 Impacts on Communities 28 Impacts on Livelihoods 28 3.2 Demand and Supply of Forest Ecosystems-related Goods and Services 29 3.2.1 Demand and Supply of Wood and Fuelwood 30 Round Wood Equivalent (RWE) Demand and Supply of Wood 30 Demand and Supply of Fuelwood and Charcoal 36 3.2.2 Demand and Supply of Forest Ecosystems Services 38 Demand for Water 40 Demand for other Forest Ecosystems-related Services 48 3.3 Governance Scenario 54 Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development i 3.3.1 Current Governance of the Forestry Sector 54 3.3.2 Projected Scenario in the Governance of the Forestry Sector 62 3.3.3 Governance Scenario for the Updated and Climate Resilient RMPFD 65 4. The Updated and Climate Resilient Philippine Master Plan for Forestry Development 71 4.1 The Forestry Sector Vision, Goals and Objectives 71 4.2 Forestry Sector Programs and Strategies 73 4.2.1 Program to Strengthen Resilience of Forest Ecosystems and Communities to Climate Change 74 Objectives 75 Strategies 75 Program Components and Targets 78 Indicative Program Cost 92 4.2.2 Programs to Respond to Demands for Forest Ecosystems Goods and Services 93 Objectives 94 Strategies 94 Program Components and Targets 101 Indicative Program Costs 108 4.2.3 Strategies to Promote Responsive Governance in the Forestry Sector 110 Objectives 111 Strategies 112 Program Components and Targets 114 Indicative Program Costs 126 4.2.4 Other Support Programs and Strategies 127 Objectives 127 Strategies 127 Program Components and Targets 128 Indicative Program Costs 132 5. The Master Plan Implementation 134 5.1 Implementation Schedule and Targets 134 5.2 Budgetary Requirements and Financing Program 136 5.3 Monitoring and Evaluation 141 6. Economic Viability of the Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Dev’t 143 Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development ii 7. Carbon Benefits of the Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development 147 References 150 Annexes 151 Annex 1 Summary of Accomplishments, Problems/Issues, 152 Facilitating Factors and Recommendations in the Implementation of the 2003 Revised Master Plan for Forestry Development Annex 2 Matrix of Regional and Provincial Vulnerability to Climate-related 163 Hazards and Poverty Annex 3 Ancestral Domain Areas in the Philippines (in Hectares) 168 Annex 4 Eighteen Major River Basins in the Philippines 169 Annex 5 List of Watershed Forest Reserve (Proclaimed Watershed) and 174 Management Plan (as of 2013) Annex 6 List of Priority Watersheds with Characterization Reports and 185 Management Plan (as of 2013) Annex 7 List of Protected Areas of the Philippines 196 Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development iii List of Figures Page Figure 1 Framework for updating and climate proofing the RMPFD 4 Figure 2 Forest cover trends in the Philippines 14 Figure 3 Observed average temperature anomalies in the Philippines 15 (1951-2010) based on departures from 1971-2000 normal values Figure 4 Observed trends in extreme daily temperature in the Philippines 16 based on historical weather records from 1951-2008 Figure 5 Observed trends in extreme daily rainfall intensity in the Philippines 16 based on historical records from 1951 – 2008 Figure 6 Historical (observed) and projected annual mean temperature 17 anomalies from 1951 to 2100 based on departures from 1971-2000 normal values Figure 7 Provinces at risk to projected temperature increase 18 Figure 8 Projected change in seasonal mean rainfall (%) in the Philippines 19 Figure 9 Observed number of extreme typhoons with maximum 21 sustained wind of more than 150 kph, 1971-2010 Figure 10 Map of the Philippines showing the areas vulnerable to typhoons 23 based on Tropical cyclone frequency using 1o x 1o from 1948-2010 Figure 11 Regions in the Philippines with water stress or water scarcity 25 based on water availability per capita (WAPC), 2010, 2015 and 2025 Figure 12 Wood supply and consumption in the Philippines, 2000-2010 28 Figure 13 General flow of woodfuel production, marketing and 35 consumption in the Philippines Figure 14 Location of existing mariculture parks (as of 2013) 51 Figure 15 Major fishing grounds in the Philippines 52 Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development iv List of Tables Page Table 1 Projected change in seasonal mean rainfall (%) in the Philippines 20 based on medium-range emission scenario Table 2 Areas vulnerable to landslides by region 20 Table 3 Disastrous typhoons with damages of at least Php1 billion, 1970-2010 22 Table 4 Wood supply and wood consumption account 29 in the Philippines, 2000 – 2010 (in thousand cu. m.) Table 5 Estimated harvesting area in ha. of plantation forests 31 of total and domestic projected wood consumption Table 6 CBFMA areas in the Philippines 33 Table 7 Best estimates of biomass and woodfuel consumption in the Philippines 35 Table 8 Revised estimates of woodfuel sources and their potentials 36 for the Philippines Table 9 Governance-designated entities with responsibility, accountability, 37 and authority (RAA) for ENR, lands of the public and ancestral domains, and alienated lands Table 10 Water availability in MCM 40 Table 11 The regional harvest area target (ha.) of rice production 45 in the Philippines, 2011-2016 Table 12 Global agreements in which the Philippines is signatory 58. Table 13 List of provinces potential for REDD+ 87 Table 14 Indicative program cost: Strengthening Resilience of Ecosystems 88 and Communities to Climate Change Table 15 Comparative advantage of regions in providing forest ecosystems 93 goods and services Table 16 Projected targets for roundwood plantation development 100 Table 17 Projected targets for fuelwood plantation development 101 Table 18 Indicative program cost: Responding to Demands for 105 Forest Ecosystems Goods and Services Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development v Table 19 Indicative program cost: Responsive Governance in Forestry 122 Table 20 Indicative cost: Other Support Programs 128 Table 21 Schedule of implementation 131 Table 22 Total indicative costs of priority programs under the Climate Resilient 134 Philippine Master Plan for Forestry Development Table 23 Economic analysis of the Climate Resilient Philippine Master Plan 141 for Forestry Development List of Acronyms/Abbreviations A&D Alienable and Disposable ADB Asian Development Bank ADMU Ateneo de Manila University ADSDPP Ancestral Domain Sustainable Development and Protection Plan AFP Armed Forces of the Philippines ALRs Annual Log Requirements ANR Assisted Natural Regeneration ARMM Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BAR Bureau of Agricultural Research BCM Billion cubic meter BFAR Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources BMB Biodiversity Management Bureau CADC Certificate of Ancestral Domain Claims CADT Certificate of Ancestral Domain Title CAR Cordillera Administrative Region CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CBFM Community-based Forest Management CBFMA Community-Based Forest Management Agreements Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development vi CC/DR Climate Change/Disaster Risk CC Climate Change CCA Climate Change Act CCC Climate Change Commission CCA/DRR Climate Change Act/Disaster Risk Reduction CDP Comprehensive Development Plan CENRO Community Environment and Natural Resources Office CIFOR Center for International Forestry Research CIS Communal Irrigation Systems CITES Convention on the International Trade of Endangered Species CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plans CSDRM Climate Smart Disaster Risk Management DA Department of Agriculture DAO Department Administrative Order DAR Department of Agrarian Reform DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DILG Department of Interior and Local Government DOE Department of Energy DOTC Department of Tourism and Communication DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DRRM Disaster Risk Reduction Management ENR Environment and Natural Resources EO Executive Order ERDB Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FDC Forestry Development Center FLUP Forest Land Use Plan FLGLA Forest Land Grazing Lease Agreement Philippine Master Plan for Climate Resilient Forestry Development vii FMB Forest Management Bureau FMU Forest Management Unit GCMs Global Climate Models or Global Circulation Models GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information Systems GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit/ German International Cooperation Agency HH Household HSC Hydropower Service Contracts IEC Information Education Communication IEM Integrated Ecosystems Management IEM-IWRM Integrated Ecosystems Management-Integrated Water Resources Management