Published on Eurydice (https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-policies/eurydice)

Demographic situation

Geography

Scotland, with an area of 7,792,500 hectares, accounts for about a third of the total area of the United Kingdom. On average, in 2016 there were 69 people per square kilometre in Scotland. For comparison, the average population density for the UK in 2016 was 266 people per square kilometre (ONS, 2016).

The Scottish mainland from the border with England to the north coast is about 440 km in direct line and its maximum breadth is about 240 km. In addition to the mainland there are some 380 islands (790 if all the very smallest islands are included), of which around 120 are inhabited. Some are relatively large in area. Several groups of islands lie at some distance from the Scottish mainland. , for example, is a fairly large group of islands lying at 60oN, some 320 km from and only about 400 km from Norway.

Islands have particular implications for education, especially when populations are small and children have to leave home for secondary education. In large areas of Scotland people depend very much on road and air transport and ferries.

Population

The latest estimate of Scotland’s population (June 2016) is 5,404,700 – the highest ever and an increase of 31,700 people (0.6%) on the previous year. Scotland's population has increased by 6% since 1996 (when it was 5,092,190). The population reached a peak of 5.24 million in 1974 before falling to 5.05 million in 2002 and then rising again since then. The rise since 2002 should be seen in the context of relative stability over the last 50 years.

Despite a history as a country of emigration, immigration is now the primary force driving this increase, with in-migration exceeding out-migration by approximately 31,700 people between mid-2015 to mid-2016 (around 8,800 from the rest of the UK and 22,900 from overseas).

The number of deaths exceeded births by 800, while other changes resulted in an increase of 800 people. These other changes included variations in the prison population and in the number of armed forces personnel stationed in Scotland. Life expectancy is increasing for both men and women.

The median age of the Scottish population in 2016 was 42. The age structure of the population is changing. A general ageing of the population has occurred over the last few decades, with an increase of 17 per cent in the population which is aged 75 between 2004-2014. The media age is forecasted to be 45 by 2039. Of particular importance for education is a decrease of three per cent in the number of children under 16, leading to a potential reduction in the demand for education and school services in the short term.

The population is very unevenly spread, with a large majority living in the relatively narrow Central Belt around the estuaries of the rivers Forth and Clyde. This area includes Scotland's two largest cities, (Glasgow's population increased by 1.44%) and (Edinburgh's population increased by 1.68% - the largest increase in Scotland). Population in many parts of Scotland is very thinly spread. Low population levels have important implications for the provision of education and the viability of rural schools.

Population Projections

The latest population projections are based on the estimate of Scotland’s population at June 2016. These projections are based on existing trends and make no allowance for the future impact of government policies and other factors. The total population of Scotland is projected [1] to rise from 5.4 million in 2016 to 5.7 million in 2041, an increase of 5.3% over the 25 year period - wholly driven by net migration [2].

Scotland’s population is aging and likely to age in the future, mainly because of two baby booms in 1947 and the 1960s and relatively low fertility rates since the 1960s. Between 2016 and 2041, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by 2%.

The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 79% [2] over the 25 year period. The number of working age people is projected to increase from 3.43 to 3.47 million by 2041 (a 1% increase overall, although with fluctuations across the period). The pattern of change over the last 20 years, and the projected change in the age distribution, is similar to that of other countries in the UK and Europe.

Migration

Historically, Scotland has been a country of net emigration. However, since the 1960s, net emigration has greatly reduced and the country is now in a period of net immigration. Over seven years to 2011, there were net gains of at least 18,600 per year. The below table shows recent net migration over selected years for Scotland:

Year Net migration 2007-08 +33,000 2011-12 +12,700 2012-13 +10,000 2013-14 +17,600 2015-16 +31,700

Source: National Records Scotland, 2017

The 33,000 net increase in migration during 2007-08 was the largest since estimates began in 1951.

The increase reflects mainly an influx of workers from Eastern Europe following the expansion of the European Union in 2004. According to the 2011 Census [3], of the 7 per cent (369,000) of people in Scotland who were not born in the UK:

15 per cent (55,000) were born in Poland 6 per cent (23,000) were born in each of India and the Republic of Ireland.

As the ethnic minority population of Scotland has grown rapidly over the last decade, diversity in Scottish schools has increased. The pupil census [4] reveals that the ethnic minority (defined as non- white ethnic groups) school population doubled from 3% of the school population in 2003 to 6% in 2013. By 2017, ethnic minority children totalled 7.6% of all pupils.

The growth in the numbers of Eastern European workers living and working in Scotland has also resulted in an increase in the numbers of children and young people in Scottish schools who have English as an additional language. Diversity is becoming an increasingly important factor in Scotland’s schools and this will no doubt continue to shape future education policy.

Languages

Official language and language policy

English is the official language of government, business, education, the law and other professions. It is spoken everywhere in Scotland, alongside Scottish-English (including various forms of modern Scots) in most areas and Gaelic in parts of the Highlands and many of the Western Isles.

The Gaelic language has been spoken in Scotland for well over 1,000 years and has been a continuing element in Scottish heritage, identity and history. It is an increasingly visible part of Scottish life and a growing part of Scottish public life reaching into education, arts, media and broadcasting. The survives in Scotland in various forms spoken in different parts of the country, some of which are closer to Standard English than others. The Scots language has its own rich literary tradition.

Language policy in education is to promote high levels of literacy in English and, in addition, in Gaelic in some parts of the country. It also aims to develop young people’s awareness of the Scots language. Language policy in Scotland also gives all young people the entitlement to learn at least one modern foreign language (which may include Gaelic for those whose mother tongue is English).

The UK Government signed the Council of Europe Charter for Regional or Minority Languages [5] in 2000 and ratified it in 2001. The Scots language is covered by Part II of the Charter and Gaelic is specified under Part III.

The 2011 Census [6] of Population recorded that 98% of the population aged 3 and over in Scotland reported they could speak, read, write or understand English. 92% reported that they could speak, read and write English.

In addition, the most recent Census has demonstrated that the Scottish Government’s initiatives in support of Gaelic have slowed down the decline of the language. Although there is still a significant Gaelic language community in Scotland, the number of Gaelic speakers in Scotland has declined over the last two centuries. The 2011 Census recorded that 1% of the population could speak Gaelic (a slight fall from 1.2% in 2001 to 1.1% in 2011). Not all of these speakers are located in areas where Gaelic was historically prevalent. In 2011, the largest concentrations of Gaelic speakers were found in Na h-Eileanan an Iar (the Western Isles), Highland and west central Scotland.

The 2011 Census also, for the first time, provided information on the numbers of Scots speakers. This information, will assist with promoting the use and status of the Scots language and supporting communities that speak Scots. 30% of the population were recorded as speaking Scots in some way. Gaelic and Scots education

The Scottish Government will continue its focus on increasing the numbers speaking, learning and using the Gaelic language. The Standards in Scotland’s Schools etc Act 2000 [7] requires local authorities to report on their plans for Gaelic provision in their annual Improvement Objectives Report.

Gaelic is now taught at all levels of education (pre-school, primary, secondary, further and higher education). There is also Gaelic provision as part of teacher education. Every education authority must promote the potential provision of school education in the area by publicising Gaelic medium education in a way the authority deems appropriate.

Gaelic language and Gaelic-medium education (which allows pupils to be taught primarily through the medium of Scottish Gaelic, with English being taught as the secondary language) are not confined to the traditional Gaelic-speaking areas of Scotland, but are also established in the main urban areas. In 2016, around 6300 students were learning one course or more in the Gaelic language (including the learning of Gaelic).

Several colleges provide Gaelic language courses, including Sabhal Mor Ostaig (the Gaelic College on Skye) and Lews Castle College in Stornoway (on the island of Lewis). The universities of Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow have Celtic Departments in which Gaelic is studied.

See the Bòrd na Gàidhlig [8] and Education Scotland [9] websites for more information on Gaelic education policy. Resources, examples of practice, research and improvement frameworks and tools for Gaelic education are available on the National Improvement Hub [10].

Curriculum guidance advocates the inclusion of Scots literature in the school curriculum and development of a proper awareness and appreciation of the language. The Scottish Arts Council provides financial support to a number of Scots language organisations.

Other languages

Groups which have come into the country as migrants at various times speak a number of other languages. The Italian community in Scotland, which was established in the nineteenth century and still maintains close contacts with Italy, retains its own language. Cantonese is the main language of the Chinese community. Other groups originally from the Indian sub-continent have brought their languages (among them Punjabi, Gujerati, Urdu, Hindi and Bengali) to Scotland.

Religions

The Church of Scotland

Since the Reformation of the 16th century the established church, the Church of Scotland, has been Protestant and from the end of the 17th century Presbyterian. Its governance is in the hands of four "courts":

The Kirk Session (comprising the "minister", as clergy in the Church of Scotland are known, and the "elders" in each parish), which is responsible for all decisions at parish level The Presbytery, comprising the ministers and one elder from each parish in a defined geographical area The Synod, which brings together ministers from a group of Presbyteries The General Assembly, or annual meeting of the Church, which is attended by all ministers and some elders in rotation. An annually elected "Moderator" presides over the General Assembly

The General Assembly very often discusses the major issues of the day, including education, and its views on them are widely reported. It has an education committee, which deals with matters in Scottish education affecting the Church. From the latter half of the 16th century until 1872 the Church of Scotland carried the main responsibility for elementary education. Even after education had become the responsibility of central government, the Church dominated the system of School Boards through to 1918, when they were replaced by local authorities. The Church of Scotland still has the right to be involved in the educational decision making of every local council.

The Roman Catholic Church

Until 1918 the Roman Catholic Church had its own primary and secondary school system. By the Education Act of that year, however, the State took over ownership of and responsibility for the schools, on the understanding that they would remain denominational. The Roman Catholic Church retains considerable influence over the appointment of staff, the teaching of religious education and the ethos of Catholic schools. Like the Church of Scotland, it has the right of representation in councils' educational decision making. The Scottish Catholic Education Service [11] (SCES) concerns itself with matters in Scottish education affecting the Church.

Religious Affiliation

Over half (54%) of the population stated their religion as Christian in the 2011 Census [6], a decrease of 11% compared to 2001. Thirty two percent of Scots would claim affiliation to the Church of Scotland and 16% to the Roman Catholic Church.

A few, mostly living in parts of the Highlands and some of the islands off the west coast, can trace their history back as far as pre-Reformation days. Most of the Roman Catholic population is descended from Irish immigrants in the 19th century, coming mainly into the west and south-west of Scotland.

There are various other Christian denominations in Scotland and several other world faiths are practised (notably Judaism, Islam, Hinduism and Sikhism). There is one Jewish primary school, but there are no other schools specifically for children belonging to faiths other than Christianity.

Employment and unemployment

The following table shows changes in employment and unemployment rates:

2000 2005 2014 2017 Employment Rate 68.5% 72.1% 72.8% 73.9% Unemployment Rate 7.6% 5.3% 5.9% 4%

Source: Scottish Government, 2017

Employed persons are all persons aged 16 -64 who, during the reference week, worked at least one hour for pay, profit or family gain, or were not at work but had a job or business from which they were temporarily absent.

Unemployed persons comprise persons aged 16-74 who were (all three conditions must be fulfilled simultaneously): 1. without work during the reference week

2. available for work at the time (i.e. were available for paid employment or self-employment before the end of the two weeks following the reference week)

3. actively seeking work (i.e. had taken specific steps in the four-week period ending with the reference week to seek paid employment or self-employment), or who found a job to start within a period of at most three months

Legislative References

Standards in Scotland's Schools etc. Act 2000 [12] (Act of the Scottish Parliament) : 2000, asp6.

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Source URL: https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-policies/eurydice/content/population-demographic-situation-languages-and-religio ns-95_ro

Links [1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/bulletins/natio nalpopulationprojections/2016basedstatisticalbulletin [2] https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/files//statistics/population-projections/2016-based-scot/pop-proj-2016-scot-nat-pop-pro- pub.pdf [3] http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/variables-classification/ethnic-group [4] http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/School-Education/PubPupilCensus [5] https://www.coe.int/en/web/compass/european-charter-for-regional-or-minority-languages [6] http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ [7] https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-policies/eurydice/content/legislation-77_en#Standards2000 [8] http://www.gaidhlig.scot/bord/education/ [9] https://education.gov.scot/scottish-education-system/policy-for-scottish-education/policy-drivers/cfe-(building-from-the -statement-appendix-incl-btc1-5)/curriculum-areas/Languages [10] https://education.gov.scot/improvement/searchresults?k=Gaidhlig [11] http://sces.org.uk/ [12] https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-policies/eurydice/content/legislation-77_en#standards