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Qatar Review 2020 – 2021 Outlook

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Qatar Review 2020 – 2021 Outlook Qatar Review Outlook www.valustrat.com ValuStrat Price Index - VPI Qatar Residential Base: Q1 2016 = 100 All prices are quoted in Qatari Riyal unless otherwise stated Sales and Rent performance are measured on quarterly basis while hotel performance are on yearly basis 2020 Review FIRST QUARTER REVIEW 2020 VPI Residential VPI Residential Capital Values Rental Values 70.8 62.4 -3.4% -5.0% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Residential Ready Residential Ready Ticket Size Sales Volume 2.5m 441 QAR Transactions -10.7% 0% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Office Rent 83 per sq m QAR -3.5% Q-o-Q Hotel Hotel ADR Occupancy 352 63% QAR -5.0% -5.0% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Jan COVID - 19 PANDEMIC • The VPI – Residential Capital Values for Qatar stood at 70.8 points, dipping 0.5% since Q4 2019 and 3.4% annually. The average capital value of a residential unit • First confirmed case in Qatar was recorded on 29th February 2020 stood at QAR 7,876 per sq m. More specifically, apartments were QAR 11,435 1W per sq m and villas were QAR 6,105 per sq m • Suspension of inbound flights except for transit and cargo • The residential rental VPI in Qatar stood at 62.4 points, softening 1% quarterly, • Adoption of distance learning as schools and universities were suspended 5% annually and 14.7% since Q1 2018. The highest annual corrections were experienced in secondary locations for apartments while for villas, declines • Lock-down of industrial area (Streets No. 1-32) were observed in relatively prime locations such as Ain Khaled, Abu Hamour, • Closure of cinemas, theatres, children’s play areas, gyms, money exchange Duhail and Al Waab 2W locations and wedding venues • Gross yields for residential units averaged an overall 5.1% equivalent to 6.1% for apartments and 4.5% for villas • Closure of non-essential retail stores and bank branches in commercial complexes and shopping centres with the exception of food outlets and pharmacies • Closure of all museums 3W • Public events and gatherings prohibited PROJECT LAUNCHES • Public health awareness campaigns and intensified food inspections to ensure health compliance • Mall of Qatar announced a plan to expand with 1,000 residential units, an international school campus and a theme park • Imposition of work from home for 80% of employees in the private sector • Qetaifan Projects signed a memorandum of understanding with ADMARES 4W • Government of Qatar announced a QAR 75 billion economic stimulus package for Construction and Trading to construct and operate 16 floating hotels on the private sector and real estate companies shores of Qetaifan Island North to provide accommodation during the FIFA World Cup 2022 • Qatar Central Bank (QCB) put in place mechanisms to encourage banks to postpone loan installments and obligations of the private sector with a grace • Public Works Authority (Ashghal) launched QAR 4 billion infrastructure project, period of six months comprising 10 new construction contracts, projected to serve 8,400 land plots upon completion Feb • Ashghal launched the first phase of Ras Bu Abboud Beach Development project and Al Daayen Park Development project to be developed as leisure and tourist destinations RETAIL • Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure proposed data centre projects under Qatar Free Zones Authority (QFZA) • Mall of Qatar, Doha Festival City, Msheireb Properties, Ezdan Mall (Gharrafa, Al 5W Wakrah and Al Wukair) and Barwa Real Estate announced rent exemption for their commercial tenants for a period of three to six months starting from March 2020 • There was a significant increase in demand for food and grocery products in March 2020 due to panic buying in light of uncertainty regarding social mobility ECONOMY measures 6W • Al Meera opened a store at The Mall, D-Ring Road, spread over 1,800 sq m BUA, • International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) leading to 55 Al Meera stores in total in Qatar. In addition, Al Meera launched of Qatar to grow by 2.8% annually in 2020 Sainsbury products (leading British supermarket chain) within all outlets • As per revised estimates of GDP with a base year of 2018 by PSA (Planning & Statistics Authority), real GDP expanded by 0.9% annually during Q1 2020 • Consumer Price Index (CPI) reduced by 0.8% YoY and QoQ. The housing and 7W utility index declined 3.9% YoY and 1.5% QoQ HOTEL • Qatar Central Bank reduced interest rates twice in line with cuts made by the US Federal Reserve • As per Qatar National Tourism Council (QNTC), the total stock by end of 2019 • Qatar annual exports and imports deflated by 14.7% and 3.6% respectively was 27,261 keys (130 hotels and hotel apartments). 24,562 keys are hotel rooms and 2,699 are hotel apartments • Economically active population increased by 1% YoY during Q1 2020 8W • 988 keys were added with the opening of Pullman Hotel in West Bay, Imperium Residences in Najma, Dusit D2 Salwa Doha in Muraikh and Al Liwan Suites in Rawdat Al Khail and Diyafa Hotel Suites in Al Sadd • Occupancy of hotel and hotel apartments dropped 5% and 8% YoY respectively in March 2020 RESIDENTIAL Mar • ADR (Average Daily Rate) of hotels and hotel apartments reduced by 5% and 10% annually respectively compared to 2019 • Transaction volume for residential houses decreased by 13% YoY and no changed compared to Q4 2019. Median transacted ticket size of residential houses was QAR 2.5 million. A significant fall in Q1 volumes was attributed to sharp declines in March 2020, as compared to the first two months of the year which had experienced a rise in comparison to 2019 9W • 900 apartments and 500 villas were added, leading to a total residential supply TOURISM of 299,100 units. 60% of the new supply was concentrated in Lusail • 50% decrease in new enquiries for sale and rental properties • Total international guests reached 546,609, down 7% YoY • In March 2020 with the advent of the pandemic, the government of Qatar imposed a ban on inbound tourists causing the volume of tourists to plunge. 10W Moreover, all recreation facilities and F&B outlets in hotel properties were also mandated to close • There was a reported rise in residents occupying hotel apartments due to OFFICE the flexibility of short-term leasing contracts they offered • There was an addition of three mixed-use buildings and two office buildings comprising 60,000 sq m GLA of office space 11W • A drop in new inquiries was reported beginning from March 2020. Main transactions focused upon lease renewals compared to new leasing activity • Companies in midst of renewing existing office contract or looking for new office spaces preferred flexible short-term contracts 12W SECOND QUARTER REVIEW 2020 VPI Residential VPI Residential Capital Values Rental Values 69.9 61.3 -4.1% -5.2% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Residential Ready Residential Ready Ticket Size Sales Volume 2.5m 279 QAR Transactions 0% -36.7% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Office Rent 82 per sq m QAR -1.2% Q-o-Q Hotel Hotel ADR Occupancy 367 52% QAR -2.4% -13.0% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Apr COVID - 19 PANDEMIC • The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) displayed an average residential capital value of 1W QAR 718 per sq ft (QAR 7,731 per sq m) as at Q2 2020, falling by 1.4% QoQ, 1.9% • The Supreme Committee for Crisis Management of Qatar announced on June since Q4 2019 and 4.1% YoY 8th a controlled phased lifting of COVID-19 restrictions • ValuStrat Price Index for residential rental values softened 1.7% compared to Q1 • Phase 1 of the lifting of restrictions was imposed for the timeline June 15th to 2020, 2.6% compared to Q4 2019 and 5.2% compared to Q2 2019 June 30th which involved removing partial restrictions on mosques, outdoor activity, private healthcare facilities and malls 2W • Gross yields for residential units averaged at an overall 5.1%, equivalent to 6.2% for apartments and 4.6% for villas • Government of Qatar announced mandatory 14-day hotel quarantine for Qatari nationals entering the country, while other nationalities weren’t allowed to enter until August 2020 3W LAWS & REGULATIONS RESIDENTIAL • Public Private Partnerships (PPP) Law No. 12 of 2020 was published to regulate 4W the operation of PPPs, which are used to deliver projects in water and power and now expanded to include other sectors • Transaction volumes for residential houses decreased by 26.2% YoY and 36.7% compared to Q1 2020. The median transacted ticket size of residential houses was QAR 2.5 million. Volume fell significantly during April and May 2020, which was then offset by a rise in June May • 1,450 residential units were added, leading to a total residential supply of 300,550 apartments and villas MARKET SENTIMENT • Approximately 90% of the new supply was concentrated in Lusail, Al Dafna and Musheireb Downtown including notable developments of Al Shahed Tower in Al • Developers reported no significant delays in construction schedules of under 5W Dafna and Phase 1B in Mushiereb Downtown development real estate projects • Companies reported increased caution in expanding operations, which may contribute to a slowdown in growth of expatriate families and demand for offices in the medium term 6W RETAIL • Between March-May 2020 there was the closure of all retail shops in shopping centres and commercial complexes except for pharmacies and shops that sold 7W food. In June 2020, with the advent of phase 1, the ban on non-essential retail PROJECT LAUNCHES shops was partially lifted • Barwa Real Estate was selected by the Public Works Authority (Ashghal) to • No shopping centres were opened during H1 2020, whilst 60,000 sqm GLA of develop eight schools through Public Private Partnerships (PPP) unorganised retail space was added 8W • United Development Company (UDC) awarded QAR 1.5 billion contracts for the • Due to loss of revenue, cash flow management became a major challenge with development of Gewan Island on The Pearl, to be completed by 2021 retailers citing rental payment as the main issue.
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