The National Spatial Strategy

Minoru KIMURA Director, General Affairs Division National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism National Spatial Planning System  Role of National Spatial Planning An engine to promote ideal national development by unifying the directions of wide-spread policies regarding spatial planning, e.g. regional development, industry, culture, tourism, transport, telecommunication, energy, infrastructure, disaster prevention, environment, land and resources, landscape, mutual assistance community development  National Spatial Planning System National Land Use Planning National Spatial Strategies Promotion/Development Plan for Specific Prefectures Okinawa Promotion Basic Hokkaido Comprehensive Planned in an National Plan integrated manner National Plan Policy/Plan Development Plan

Prefectural Plans Regional Plans Specific areas which have own Metropolitan areas dev. plans promotion/development plans National Capital Region Dev. Plan Municipal Plans Plans on infrastructure Areas with special soils development Kinki Region Development Plan Priority Plan for Infrastructure Dev. Remote islands Chubu Region Development Plan Land Use Master Plans Basic Plan on Transportation Policy Amami Islands

Ogasawara Islands Areas controlled by individual laws Basic Plans for Housing Other plans Water Resource Development City area Long-term Development plan Snowy areas Basic Plans for land improvement Agriculture area Mountain village areas Basic Disaster Management Plan Forest Improvement and Conservation Forest area Works Master Plan Peninsular areas Basic Environmental Plan Long-term Development Plan Basic Plan for Food, Agriculture Natural Park area for Fishing Harbors and Fisheries Depopulated areas and Rural Areas

Natural conservation area Waste Disposal Facility Dev. Plan Northern Territories adjacent area Basic Plan for Fisheries 1 About the National Spatial Strategy (National Plan)

A comprehensive and basic plan to promote the use, improvement and conservation of National Land

 Based on the “National Spatial Planning Act” (Act No. 205, 1950, former “Comprehensive National Development Act” amended and renamed in 2005)  Coordinator: National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT  Plan duration: approx. 10 years  Procedures needed to finalize the National Plan: • Asking for and reflecting opinions from the public • Consultation with the heads of related administrative organs • Hearing the opinions of the prefectures and designated cities government ordinance • Studied and deliberated by the “National Land Development Council” in MLIT • Cabinet decision  Post-creation: • After a few years later from cabinet decision, MLIT conduct a policy assessment (policy review) based on the Policy Evaluations Act 2 History of the National Spatial Planning

New Comprehensive 3rd Comprehensive 4th Comprehensive Comprehensive National Grand Design for the 21st National Spatial Strategy 2nd National Spatial National Development National Development National Development Development Plan Century (National Plan) Strategy (National Plan) Plan Plan Plan Cabinet Oct. 5, 1962 May 30, 1969 Nov. 4, 1977 June 30, 1987 March 31, 1998 Decision July 4, 2008 Aug. 14, 2015 1.Transition to high 1.High growth economy 1.Stable economic 1.Concentration of 1.Global age (Global 1.Great turning point for socio- 1.The current of the times and growth economy 2.Concentration of growth population and various environmental issues, economic conditions issues surrounding the 2.Overpopulation and population and 2.Signs of functions in Tokyo mega-competition, and (population decrease/aging, national land (rapid globalization, and population decrease and disparity in income industry in decentralization of 2.Employment issues in exchanges with Asian declining fertility rates, 3.National income- metropolitan areas population and non-metropolitan areas nations) development of information unprecedented aging, and communication Background doubling plan (Pacific 3.Advancement of industry are more serious for 2.Decreasing population impending catastrophes, Belt Zone Project) information 3.It became obvious that reasons such as drastic and the aging society technology) aging of infrastructures, etc.) 2.Change/diversification of 2.Change in the values of technology, national resources and structural changes in 3.Information-oriented values of Japanese people Japanese people (growing globalization, and energies are limited industry society 3.Conditions surrounding sense of “rural regression,” technical renovation 3.Advancement of full- national land (single-polar etc.) scale globalization single-axial land structure, 3.Change in national space (increase in low-use/unused etc.) About 10 years from land, vacant houses, etc.) Target year 1970 1985 Around 2000 2010 - 2015 1977 About 10 years from About 10 years from Well-balanced Improvement of the 2008 2015 Basic Creation of a rich Formation of a Prepare the basics for development general living -Construction of national Objectives between regions environment environment multipolar country a Multi-axial structure land where various regional blocks develop Promotion of Active Development of Large-scale project Stable settlement Interactive network Participation and autonomously regional hubs development concept concept Cooperation Interaction-led Spatial -Creating national land Development Decentralization of industry Promote large-scale projects Promote development of Establish a multipolar pattern This plan conceives the that is beautiful and is needed to achieve the by developing non-metropolitan areas territory with the following participation of diverse comfortable to live in objectives of this plan. transportation networks, while controlling the initiatives: entities and cooperation Multilayered and Efforts must be made to such as the Shinkansen concentration of population 1.Promote a between regions as the basis [Five strategic objectives] resilient “Compact City develop regional hubs, by (bullet train) and and industry in metropolitan creative/innovative for national and regional and Networks” expressways, to mitigate the areas. Make efforts to improvement of each area development. 1.Exchange and cooperation organically relating them to with East Asia and promoting interaction uneven use of land and achieve a well-balanced use of national territory by [Four Strategies] [Specific direction] solve problems such as of the national territory maximizing regional 2.Creation of sustainable 1.The national land that shines with the existing production 1.Build nature-rich regions mass in Tokyo and other overpopulation, while responding to the characteristics locally and acts globally depopulation, and regional issues of overpopulation and 2.Develop backbone residential areas (small 3.Creation of disaster-resilient, (creating regional areas with metropolitan areas, with a cities, agricultural and flexible national land Development new transportation and disparities. depopulation, with the aim transportation, diversity, etc.) of creating a better living information, and fishing areas, hilly and 4.Management and 2.National land management method communication network. mountainous areas) inheritance of beautiful Such development shall be environment for citizens. communication networks and infrastructures that nationwide in accordance 2.Renovate metropolitan national land support safety and security, performed by maintaining areas (renovation, renewal, 5.Creation of regional areas the characteristics of the with the national program and economic growth or initiatives led by the and effective use of based on the "new public" as 3.Participation and peripheral areas and spheres in large cities) an axis achieving a chain reaction national government cooperation to support 3.Establish various 3.Form regional cooperation creation of national land that promotes regionally corridors (regional balanced development. interaction opportunities (fostering actors and through a joint effort partnership taking the form creating the society of between the national of axis) mutual assistance) government, each regions, 4.Form international spheres and private institutions. of interaction on a large scale (which has global interactive functions) 3 Gini coefficient on the prefectural income per capita

 According to Gini coefficient, regional gap had declined during the rapid economic growth period (60s-70s).  The gap had been on the increase around the economic bubble period, and then fell down again.  It came to rise again from the beginning to mid 00s, and then reduced late 00s before/after financial crisis

（Gini coefficient） 69 0.132 62 CNDP New CNDP 77 3rd CNDP 87 4th CNDP 98 21GD 08 NSS 0.14 （1961）

0.13 1st Oil Shock （1973） Corruption of 0.12 “Bubble Economy” （1991）

0.11 Great Hanshin- Awaji Earthquake （1995） Financial Crisis 0.10 （2008） 2nd Oil Shock （1979） Great East Japan 0.09 Asian Crisis Earthquake

Regional gap Regional （1997） （2011）

0.08 0.072 （2013） 0.07

0.06 1955 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 2005 2010 Source: Data Prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT, from “Prefectural Accounting” (Cabinet Office), and “Population Census”, “Population Estimates” and “Japan’s long-term statistical series” (Ministry of Internal Affaires and Communications) Note 1: Gini coefficient is an indicator to show income or wealth distribution, which ranges from 0 (minimum inequality) to 1 (maximum). Note 2: Data on prefectural income is based on 68SNA (from 1955 to 1989) and 93SNA (from 1990). 4 Development of Express Traffic Network (As of 1965)

Highways Shinkansen Bullet Trains Airports with runway over 2,000m

rd Source: Prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT (as of 3 March, 1965) 5 Development of Express Traffic Network (As of 2018)

Highways (in service) Highways (under construction) Highways (not yet project commencement) Shinkansen Bullet Trains (in service) Shinkansen Bullet Trains (on work order) Linear Shinkansen (on work order) Hub airports Other airports with runaway(s) over 2,000m

st Source: Prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT (as of 1 June, 2018) 6 Long-Term Population Trends in Japan  The total population of Japan is likely to return to the level of a century ago (around the year 1850) over the next 100 years.  This change is a very rapid decline that is unparalleled in a thousand years. 128.06 mil. (2010) (mil.) 130 127.09 mil. Peak in 2008 (2015) (2030) 120 119.13 million 128.08 million Aging rate 31.2% 110 Aging rate 22.1% 100 (2050) End of 101.92 million 90 War Aging rate 37.7% (1945) 80 71.99 mil. (high-end projections) 70 72.85 mil. (2100) (median projections) 60 59.72 mil. (2100) Kyoho Meiji Aging rate 38.3% 50 Reforms Restoration (1716-45) (1868) (low-end projections) 40 Est. of 33.30 mil. 49.06 mil. (2100) Est. of Edo 31.28 mil. 30 Est. of Muromachi Kamakura bakufu bakufu (1603) bakufu ‘(1338) 20 (1185) 12.27 mil. 8.18 mil. 10 7.5 mil. 0 （Year） Source: Long-term analysis on population distribution in Japan (National Land Agency, 1974) Note: The data from 1920 and later is based on “Population Census”, “Population Estimates” and “Population interpolation estimated from 2005 and 2010 census results” (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications), and “Population Projections for Japan (estimated in 2017)” (IPSS). 7 Global Trends of Ageing

Average life expectancy of major countries Ageing rates of world major cities (%) 1950 2015 2055 2100 40.0 Japan Japan 62.17 83.31 88.69 93.73 Korea 35.0 China Korea 47.92 81.43 88.39 93.60 Thailand China 43.39 75.43 83.49 89.94 30.0 India Thailand 50.80 74.14 81.13 87.03 France France 67.05 81.85 87.65 92.77 25.0 Germany Germany 67.52 80.66 86.72 91.96 UK 20.0 USA UK 69.28 80.45 86.20 91.04 USA 68.58 78.88 84.58 89.33 15.0 Source: UN World Population Prospects, The 2015 Revision

10.0 Ages half of those born in 2007 will reach

5.0 Japan 107 USA 104 0.0 France 104 UK 103 Source: UN World Population Prospects, The 2015 Revision Source: The 100 YEAR LIFE Lynda Gratton, Andrew Scott 2016 8 Demographic trends in three metropolitan areas and regional areas

 During the period of high economic growth, the population flowed into the three metropolitan areas.  The population inflow settled down around1980, but afterward it flowed into the Tokyo area up to around the economic bubble period.  After the burst of the bubble economy, the outgoing migration of the Tokyo area temporality exceeded the incoming migration, but the inflow increased again in the 2000s.

62 CNDP 69 New CNDP 77 3rd CNDP 87 4th CNDP 98 21GD 08 NSS 152nd NSS 60060 Excess of incoming migration (Tokyo area) was at peak in 1962 (390,000 people) Bubble economy burst (1991) ) 40040 1st oil crisis (1973) Great Great East Japan Earthquake Tokyo area nd Hanshin-Awaji 2 oil crisis earthquake (2011) 20020 (1979) (1995)

Osaka area 1,000/people 0 0 Nagoya area

- Act on Industry Restriction in Regional areas Asian -200-20 the National Capital Region currency 2017 (1959-2002) crisis (1997) - Act on Restriction of Factories, ＋120,000 ppl etc. in Kinki Region - Technopolis Act Lehman's (1964-2002) (1983-1998) fall (2008) (Tokyo area) -400-40 - Key Facilities’ Siting Law -5,000 ppl (1988-1998) (Nagoya area) - New Industrial Cities Act - Act for Industrial Development in Special Areas (1962-2001) - Regional Core Cities Act -9,000 ppl (1992 - ) -600-60 (Osaka area)

Excess of incoming migration ( migration incoming of Excess Excess of outgoing migration -106,000 ppl (regional area) was at bottom (Regional area) in 1961 (650,000 people) -800-80 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 (year) Source: Data prepared by National Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Bureau, MLIT, based on the “Basic resident register migration report” (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). Note: The above areas are classified as follows: Tokyo Area: Tokyo Metropolis and Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa Prefectures Nagoya Area: Gifu, Aichi, and Mie Prefectures Osaka Area: Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, and Nara Prefectures Three Metropolitan Areas: Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka Areas Regional Area: regions other than the Three Metropolitan Areas 9 Int’l Comparison of Population Concentration to Capital Areas

 The level of population concentration to the capital area in Japan is higher compared with those of other major countries.

Comparison with Western Countries Comparison within East Asian Countries 50 50 45 45 Korea (Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province) 40 40 35 35 Tokyo (Japan) 30 30 Japan (Tokyo)

25 25

20 20 Korea (Seoul)

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0 1950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010

（年） （年） Population in Capital Area / total population (%) population total Capital / Area in Population 日本（東京）Japan (Tokyo) UK英国（ロンドン） (London) Japan日本（東京） (Tokyo) Korea韓国（ソウル） (Seoul) Korea*＜参考＞韓国（ソウル＋インチョン＋京畿道） Thailandタイ（バンコク） (Bangkok) イタリア（ローマ）Italy (Rome) Franceフランス（パリ） (Paris) China中国（北京） (Beijing) Indonesiaインドネシア（ジャカルタ） (Jakarta) ドイツ（ベルリン）Germany (Berlin) USアメリカ（ニューヨーク） (New York) Philippinesフィリピン（マニラ） (Manila) *Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects The 2011 Revision Note 1: Figures of Berlin, Seoul and Incheon are municipal populations, and those of other cities and Gyeonggi Province are regional populations. Note 2: Definition of Tokyo is based on “Kanto Metropolitan Area” of “Population Census 2005” (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) which consists of Tokyo Special Ward, Saitama, Chiba, Yokohama and Kawasaki Cities, and surrounding municipalities. 10 Disaster risk areas and the resident population of the areas

 The disaster risk areas spread across the nation, with approx. 35% of the national land corresponding to any type of disaster risk area.  However, the population exposed to the disaster risks (2010) accounts for 70% or more of the total, which indicates a biased distribution of population in the disaster risk areas.

Risk area size Population in risk area Target disaster (% to national land area) (2010, % to total population)

Flood Approx. 20,000 km2 (5.3%) 36.71 mil. (28.6%)

Landslide disaster Approx. 59,200 km2 (15.7 %) 613,000 (4.9%)

Earthquake disaster 2 (damage by seismic intensity) Approx. 44,300 km (11.7 %) 58.88 mil. (46.3%)

Earthquake disaster 2 (damage by liquefaction) Approx. 48,700 km (12.9 %) 57.43 mil. (44.8%) Tsunami disaster Approx. 19,000 km2 (5.0 %) 26.10 mil. (20.4%) Any of the five disasters Approx. 131,400 km2 (34.8 %) 94.42 mil. (73.7%) Note 1: Definition of the risk area of each disaster is as follows: [Flood]: In the “estimated flooded area data” in National Land Numerical Information, areas indicating a flood depth > 0. [Landslide disaster]: In the “Landslide hazard points data” in National Land Numerical Information, areas such as danger areas related to debris flow, landslide, and steep slope failure. The data partially includes point and line data and therefore was converted into area data based on the national average area of each point. [Earthquake disaster (damage by seismic intensity)]: In the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps published by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, areas whose probability of being hit by earthquakes of intensity 6 or over is 25% or over. [Earthquake disaster (damage by liquefaction)]: areas from which meshes that are academically considered to have high risks of liquefaction are extracted from the detailed topographical classification meshes and the mesh gradients in the Japan Engineering Geomorphologic Classification Map. [Tsunami disaster]: The tsunami inundation area calculated by simple numerical calculation. Since the “tsunami inundation estimates” based on the Act on Regional Development in Tsunami Disaster are not yet set across the country, simple estimates are used instead. Note 2: For the population in risk areas, the population in a mesh (1 km) overlapping with risk areas was Superimposed map of extracted from the population distribution in the 2010 Census regional mesh statistics (provided by Ministry of the five disaster risk areas Internal Affairs and Communications). If a risk area boundary was present in the mesh, area-proportional distribution was used. 11 Towards Revision/Upgrading of Monitoring Methods

Positioning by c.m. Private Local from quasi-zenith satellites Sector Authorities G-Space Information “Visualization of National Centre Land Information” Gathering and Provision of Overlaying of data World Geodetic System Data Monitoring of Spatial etc. Population mesh data, and Development Data on Traffic Network spatial planning related data, - Micro-perspective regional Mesh data on etc. analysis population estimates - Macro-perspective comparative analysis of municipalities and Hazard map, etc. prefectures Self- - International comparison based driving Distribution on World Geodetic System Detailed in of goods by - Policy making 2 scale of 500 m unmanned aircraft

12 Examples of the Monitoring Indicators  Focusing on the active two-way flow, convection, of people, goods, money and information arising between distinctive regions. The following is the monitoring based on the occurrence and motive force of the convection.

Monitoring Indicators Current Concept [Definition of indicator] (Source) Value

Establish and take advantage of Small Number of small centers 1,260 [The number of small centers currently established] (Cabinet Office) Stations consolidating core functions (Oct. 2016) Number of municipalities announcing a land optimization Formation of compact city in local cities plan 124 [Number of municipalities that developed and announced a land optimization plan] (MLIT) (May. 2017)

Development of a vibrant economy and living Number of areas with a cooperative center urban plan 23 area with a Collaborative urban area for regional [Number of areas that formulated a cooperative center urban plan] (MIC) hub, etc. (Mar. 2017)

Strengthening the competitiveness of the Agricultural, marine products and food export 745.1 billion yen transport-export industry [Export amounts of agricultural, marine products and food from wide area blocks] (MOF) (2015)

- Promotion of regional-oriented innovation Number of certified projects using local resources [Number of 1,677 - Fostering a town for growing entrepreneurs local resource utilization projects that were certified based on the Act on Promotion of Business Activities by Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Utilizing Local Resources]（SME） (Dec. 2016) Promotion of local migration or relocation, two- Proportion of young generation amongst the users of The 45.9% residence lifestyle, & living and working in two Furusato Kaiki Shien Center (2016) areas Proportion of young generation (30s or younger] (Furusato Kaiki Shien Center) Development of Tokyo metropolitan area to Tokyo: 3rd ranking be a model global city to overcome Global Power City Index （Institute for Urban Strategies The Mori Memorial Foundation） (2016) competition between international cities

Establishment of smart wellness housing Number of UR estates working on regional medical welfare centers 47 and cities in metropolitan areas [Number of UR estates starting to establish regional medical welfare centers] (Urban Renaissance Agency) (Jan. 2016) 13 Example of Regional Analysis by Overlaying Multiple Data/Info

 In terms of ≪points per 1 km2≫, the points where the population will decrease to half or less account for 60% or more.  According to the analysis by overlaying population and urban facilities location data by 1km sq. mesh, villages located close to local authorities or their branches, or primary schools have possibilities to survive, even in non-urban areas. ⇒ Access to basic services are significant for villages to survive. Estimated Population Rate of decrease/increase by 1 sq km mesh Decrease 50% and more Decrease In-

Disappear Decrease of less than crease -ance of residents

50% and 50%

in 2050 in

in 2010 in

Population of Rate Decrease Population residents more Nation- 128.06m 97.08m ▲24% 63% 19% 44% 35% 2% wide Population by the distances from local Facing the risk (million) authorities in non-urban areas of extinction 5005.0 1.0 Certain numbers of Numbers of local 4004.0 residents may remain 0.8 authorities and in central districts branches: 2,894 3003.0 0.6

2002.0 0.4

1001.0 0.2

0.00 0.0

Increase/decrease of population from 2010 to 2050 Population in 2010 Population in 2050 Rate of 2050/2010 (right axis) 2010(estimated)年人口 Increase Decrease 0% -50% Source: “Grand Design of National2050年人口（推計） Spatial Development towards 2050” (MLIT, July 2016) Decrease 50-100% Note: Population data prepared2010年 from→2050 “Population年の倍率（右目盛り） Census 2010”, (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Disappearance of residents Communications) and “Population Estimation by mesh units” (MLIT). Data on zoning and locations of local authorities and branches are from “National Land Numerical Information” (MLIT), and distance from local authorities/branches to each 1km sq. mesh from “Distal Road Map” (DRM). 14