Storm Season
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2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review
2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review WHITEPAPER Executive Summary The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a quiet season, closing with eight 2014 marks the named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or longest period on stronger). record – nine Forecast groups predicted that the formation of El Niño and below consecutive years average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main – that no major Development Region (MDR)1 through the season would inhibit hurricanes made development in 2014, leading to a below average season. While 2014 landfall over the was indeed quiet, these predictions didn’t materialize. U.S. The scientific community has attributed the low activity in 2014 to a number of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, predominantly anomalously low Atlantic mid-level moisture, anomalously high tropical Atlantic subsidence (sinking air) in the Main Development Region (MDR), and strong wind shear across the Caribbean. Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin was also influenced by below average activity in the 2014 West African monsoon season, which suppressed the development of African easterly winds. The year 2014 marks the longest period on record – nine consecutive years since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 – that no major hurricanes made landfall over the U.S., and also the ninth consecutive year that no hurricane made landfall over the coastline of Florida. The U.S. experienced only one landfalling hurricane in 2014, Hurricane Arthur. Arthur made landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane on July 4, causing minor damage. While Mexico and Central America were impacted by two landfalling storms and the Caribbean by three, Bermuda suffered the most substantial damage due to landfalling storms in 2014.Hurricane Fay and Major Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall on the island within a week of each other, on October 12 and October 18, respectively. -
Hurricane & Tropical Storm
5.8 HURRICANE & TROPICAL STORM SECTION 5.8 HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM 5.8.1 HAZARD DESCRIPTION A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (NOAA, 2013). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. The average wind speeds for tropical storms and hurricanes are listed below: . A tropical depression has a maximum sustained wind speeds of 38 miles per hour (mph) or less . A tropical storm has maximum sustained wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph . A hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones. A major hurricane has maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or higher (NOAA, 2013). Over a two-year period, the United States coastline is struck by an average of three hurricanes, one of which is classified as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions may pose a threat to life and property. These storms bring heavy rain, storm surge and flooding (NOAA, 2013). The cooler waters off the coast of New Jersey can serve to diminish the energy of storms that have traveled up the eastern seaboard. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record. -
Sensitivity Analysis of Hurricane Arthur (2014) Storm Surge Forecasts to WRF Physics Parameterizations and Model Configurations
OCTOBER 2017 Z H A N G E T A L . 1745 Sensitivity Analysis of Hurricane Arthur (2014) Storm Surge Forecasts to WRF Physics Parameterizations and Model Configurations FAN ZHANG AND MING LI Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, Maryland ANDREW C. ROSS Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania SERENA BLYTH LEE Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith Centre for Coastal Management, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia DA-LIN ZHANG Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland (Manuscript received 13 December 2016, in final form 17 July 2017) ABSTRACT Through a case study of Hurricane Arthur (2014), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) are used to investigate the sensitivity of storm surge forecasts to physics parameterizations and configurations of the initial and boundary conditions in WRF. The turbulence closure scheme in the planetary boundary layer affects the prediction of the storm intensity: the local closure scheme produces lower equivalent potential temperature than the nonlocal closure schemes, leading to significant reductions in the maximum surface wind speed and surge heights. On the other hand, higher-class cloud microphysics schemes overpredict the wind speed, resulting in large overpredictions of storm surge at some coastal locations. Without cumulus parameterization in the outermost domain, both the wind speed and storm surge are grossly underpredicted as a result of large precipitation decreases in the storm center. None of the choices for the WRF physics parameterization schemes significantly affect the prediction of Arthur’s track. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: the Way Ahead
INTERAGENCY STRATEGIC RESEARCH PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES THE WAY AHEAD FCM-P36-2007 February 2007 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research THE FEDERAL COMMITTEE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH (FCMSSR) VADM CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR., USN (RET.) MR. RANDOLPH LYON Chairman, Department of Commerce Office of Management and Budget DR. SHARON L. HAYS MS. VICTORIA COX Office of Science and Technology Policy Department of Transportation DR. RAYMOND MOTHA MR. DAVID MAURSTAD Department of Agriculture Federal Emergency Management Agency Department of Homeland Security BRIG GEN DAVID L. JOHNSON, USAF (RET.) Department of Commerce DR. MARY L. CLEAVE National Aeronautics and Space MR. ALAN SHAFFER Administration Department of Defense DR. MARGARET S. LEINEN DR. JERRY ELWOOD National Science Foundation Department of Energy MR. PAUL MISENCIK MR. KEVIN “SPANKY” KIRSCH National Transportation Safety Board Science and Technology Directorate Department of Homeland Security MR. JAMES WIGGINS U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission DR. MICHAEL SOUKUP Department of the Interior DR. LAWRENCE REITER Environmental Protection Agency MR. RALPH BRAIBANTI Department of State MR. SAMUEL P. WILLIAMSON Federal Coordinator MR. JAMES B. HARRISON, Executive Secretary Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research THE INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND SUPPORTING RESEARCH (ICMSSR) MR. SAMUEL P. WILLIAMSON, Chairman MR. JAMES H. WILLIAMS Federal Coordinator Federal Aviation Administration Department of Transportation MR. THOMAS PUTERBAUGH Department of Agriculture DR. JONATHAN M. BERKSON United States Coast Guard MR. JOHN E. JONES, JR. Department of Homeland Security Department of Commerce MR. JEFFREY MACLURE RADM FRED BYUS, USN Department of State United States Navy Department of Defense DR. -
The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on GFDL Hurricane Model Forecasts Using Global Analyses
JUNE 1997 TULEYA AND LORD 307 The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data on GFDL Hurricane Model Forecasts Using Global Analyses ROBERT E. TULEYA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey STEPHEN J. LORD National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, Washington, D.C. (Manuscript received 9 April 1996, in ®nal form 24 October 1996) ABSTRACT The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of NOAA have collaborated to postprocess Omega dropwindsonde (ODW) data into the NCEP operational global analysis system for a series of 14 cases of Atlantic hurricanes (or tropical storms) from 1982 to 1989. Objective analyses were constructed with and without ingested ODW data by the NCEP operational global system. These analyses were then used as initial conditions by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) high- resolution regional forecast model. This series of 14 experiments with and without ODWs indicated the positive impacts of ODWs on track forecasts using the GFDL model. The mean forecast track improvement at various forecast periods ranged from 12% to 30% relative to control cases without ODWs: approximately the same magnitude as those of the NCEP global model and higher than those of the VICBAR barotropic model for the same 14 cases. Mean track errors were reduced by 12 km at 12 h, by ;50 km for 24±60 h, and by 127 km at 72 h (nine cases). Track improvements were realized with ODWs at ;75% of the verifying times for the entire 14-case ensemble. With the improved analysis using ODWs, the GFDL model was able to forecast the interaction of Hurricane Floyd (1987) with an approaching midlatitude trough and the storm's associated movement from the western Caribbean north, then northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic east of Florida. -
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Hurricane History in North Carolina ashore. Dennis made landfall just below hurricane strength nine inches THE EXPRESS • November 29, 2017 • Page 6 at Cape Lookout on Sept. 4. The storm then moved of rain on the capitol city. Major wind damage and flood- North Carolina is especially at risk of a hurricane hitting through eastern and central North Carolina. It dumped 10 ing were reported along the North Carolina coast. Major the state. Below is a list of tropical storms and hurricanes to 15 inches of rain, causing a lot of flooding in southeastern damage was reported inland through Raleigh. Damages that have caused problems in the state in recent years. North Carolina. Because the storm had stayed off the coast topped $5 billion. Thirty-seven people died from Fran. 2011 Hurricane Irene – August 27. Hurricane Irene for many days, there was a lot of beach erosion and damage 1993 Hurricane Emily - August 31. Hurricane Emily made landfall near Cape Lookout as a Category 1. It to coastal highways. Residents of Hatteras and Ocracoke Is- came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane, but the 30-mile- brought two to four feet of storm surge along parts of the lands were stranded for many days due to damage to High- wide eye stayed just offshore of Cape Hatteras. Damage Outer Banks and up to 15 feet along parts of the Pamlico way 12. Two traffic deaths were credited to the storm. estimates were nearly $13 million. No lives were lost. Sound. Irene caused seven deaths and prompted more • Hurricane Floyd - September 16. -
The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track
Asia-Pacific J. Atmos. Sci. 47(1), 1-16, 2011 DOI:10.1007/s13143-011-1001-z The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track Wei-Kuo Tao1, Jainn Jong Shi1,2, Shuyi S. Chen3, Stephen Lang1,4, Pay-Liam Lin5, Song-You Hong6, Christa Peters-Lidard7 and Arthur Hou8 1Laboratory for Atmospheres, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA 2Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center, University of Maryland at Baltimore County, Maryland, USA 3Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA 4Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland, USA 5Department of Atmospheric Science, National Central University, Jhong-Li, Taiwan, R.O.C. 6Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Global Environment Laboratory, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea 7Hydrological Sciences Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA 8Goddard Modeling Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA (Manuscript received 5 February 2010; revised 11 June 2010; accepted 6 July 2010) © The Korean Meteorological Society and Springer 2011 Abstract: During the past decade, both research and operational 1. Introduction numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex micro- Advances in computing power allow atmospheric prediction physical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud re- models to be run at progressively finer scales of resolution, using solving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation increasingly more sophisticated physical parameterizations and system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dy- numerical methods. -
The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (Swath) Network of the U.S
The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) Network of the U.S. Geological Survey Past and Future Implementation of Storm-Response Monitoring, Data Collection, and Data Delivery Circular 1431 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover. Background images: Satellite images of Hurricane Sandy on October 28, 2012. Images courtesy of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Inset images from top to bottom: Top, sand deposited from washover and inundation at Long Beach, New York, during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Photograph by the U.S. Geological Survey. Center, Hurricane Joaquin washed out a road at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, in 2015. Photograph courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Bottom, house damaged by Hurricane Sandy in Mantoloking, New Jersey, in 2012. Photograph by the U.S. Geological Survey. The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) Network of the U.S. Geological Survey Past and Future Implementation of Storm-Response Monitoring, Data Collection, and Data Delivery By Richard J. Verdi, R. Russell Lotspeich, Jeanne C. Robbins, Ronald J. Busciolano, John R. Mullaney, Andrew J. Massey, William S. Banks, Mark A. Roland, Harry L. Jenter, Marie C. Peppler, Tom P. Suro, Chris E. Schubert, and Mark R. Nardi Circular 1431 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior RYAN K. ZINKE, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey William H. Werkheiser, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2017 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment—visit https://www.usgs.gov/ or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. -
Executive Summary
EX E CUTIV E SUMMARY CLIVE WILKINSON AND DAVID SOUTER 2005 – a hot year zx 2005 was the hottest year on average since the advent of reliable records in 1880. zx That year exceeded the previous 9 record years, which have all been within the last 15 years. zx 2005 also exceeded 1998 which previously held the record as the hottest year; there were massive coral losses throughout the world in 1998. zx Large areas of particularly warm surface waters developed in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic during 2005. These were clearly visible in satellite images as HotSpots. zx The first HotSpot signs appeared in May, 2005 and rapidly expanded to cover the northern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the mid-Atlantic by August. zx The HotSpots continued to expand and intensify until October, after which winter conditions cooled the waters to near normal in November and December. zx The excessive warm water resulted in large-scale temperature stress to Caribbean corals. 2005 – a hurricane year zx The 2005 hurricane year broke all records with 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes. zx In July, the unusually strong Hurricane Dennis struck Grenada, Cuba and Florida. zx Hurricane Emily was even stronger, setting a record as the strongest hurricane to strike the Caribbean before August. zx Hurricane Katrina in August was the most devastating storm to hit the USA. It caused massive damage around New Orleans. Status of Caribbean Coral Reefs after Bleaching and Hurricanes in 2005 zx Hurricane Rita, a Category 5 storm, passed through the Gulf of Mexico to strike Texas and Louisiana in September. -
1 Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Emily 11-21 July 2005 James L
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Emily 11-21 July 2005 James L. Franklin and Daniel P. Brown National Hurricane Center 10 March 2006 Emily was briefly a category 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) in the Caribbean Sea that, at lesser intensities, struck Grenada, resort communities on Cozumel and the Yucatan Peninsula, and northeastern Mexico just south of the Texas border. Emily is the earliest-forming category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin and the only known hurricane of that strength to occur during the month of July. a. Synoptic History Emily developed from a tropical wave that moved across the west coast of Africa on 6 July. The wave was associated with a large area of cyclonic turning and disturbed weather while it moved over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Shower activity became more concentrated on 10 July, and by 0000 UTC 11 July the system had become a tropical depression about 1075 n mi east of the southern Windward Islands. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. While the depression moved westward to the south of a narrow ridge of high pressure, initial development was slow due to modest easterly shear and a relatively dry environment, particularly to the north of the center. Although the circulation remained broad and somewhat ill-defined, the system became a tropical storm at 0000 12 July about 800 n mi east of the southern Windward Islands.