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Geostatistical Models with the Use of Hyperspectral Data and Seasonal Variation - a New Approach for Evaluating the Risk Posed by Invasive Plants

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Geostatistical Models with the Use of Hyperspectral Data and Seasonal Variation - a New Approach for Evaluating the Risk Posed by Invasive Plants Title: Geostatistical models with the use of hyperspectral data and seasonal variation - a new approach for evaluating the risk posed by invasive plants Author: Katarzyna Bzdęga, Adrian Zarychta, Alina Urbisz, Sylwia Szporak- Wasilewska, Michał Ludynia, Barbara Fojcik, Barbara Tokarska-Guzik Citation style: Bzdęga Katarzyna, Zarychta Adrian, Urbisz Alina, Szporak- Wasilewska Sylwia, Ludynia Michał, Fojcik Barbara, Tokarska-Guzik Barbara. (2021). Geostatistical models with the use of hyperspectral data and seasonal variation - a new approach for evaluating the risk posed by invasive plants. "Ecological Indicators" (2021), vol. 121, art. no. 107204, s. 1-21. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107204 Ecological Indicators 121 (2021) 107204 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ecological Indicators journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind Geostatistical models with the use of hyperspectral data and seasonal variation – A new approach for evaluating the risk posed by invasive plants Katarzyna Bzdęga a,*, Adrian Zarychta a, Alina Urbisz a, Sylwia Szporak-Wasilewska b, Michał Ludynia a, Barbara Fojcik a, Barbara Tokarska-Guzik a a Institute of Biology, Biotechnology and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Silesia in Katowice, Jagiellonska 28, 40-032 Katowice, Poland b Water Centre, Warsaw University of Life Science - SGGW, Nowoursynowska 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: The general trend of ongoing plant invasion and the increasing number of species that may become invasive in Heracleum sosnowskyi the future, force seeking solutions that can improve the efficiency and economy of their management. Thus, we Fallopia spp. applied a novel approach combining the use of geostatistical interpolators such as ordinary kriging (OK) and co- Spatial distribution kriging (CK) with environmental and hyperspectral data to evaluate the potential threat associated with the Spectral vegetation index distribution of invasive plant species and to predict their probabilities of occurrence above the selected threshold Remote sensing Kriging of 10%. The specific spatial patterns of the probability of occurrence of Heracleum sosnowskyi and Fallopia spp. were modelled in two study areas in southern Poland. The significant achievement of this study was the application of geostatistical tools producing results characterized by a degree of precision quantified by cross- validation errors, and prediction errors after field verification. OK and CK returned root mean squared error (RMSE) values in a range from 0.21 to 0.51 and 0.21 to 0.47, respectively. For OK and CK, the prediction errors resulting from field verification in the following year were between 0.03–0.39, and 0.03–0.29, respectively. Additionally, the study provided the first prediction maps (2D) and Digital Prediction Models (DPMs) (3D) vi­ sualizations of the probability of occurrence of both invasive plants. Although the proposed approach is illus­ trated with real case studies related to Heracleum sosnowskyi and Fallopia spp., it could be extended to other species. This demonstrates the potential of an effective alternative strategy for evaluating the risk posed by invasive plants, that will be able to provide fast, low cost and effective prediction and monitoring of their spread. For institutions dealing with invasive plants, this may be beneficialand help to reduce the negative consequences of their improper management. 1. Introduction development of Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing and geostatistics may help to achieve the above-mentioned research The classical approach to research on the occurrence of invasive goals and deserves attention - in particular the possibilities offered by plant species requires both fieldand off-site studies. These are methods these tools (Hutchinson and Gallant, 1999; Ai and Li, 2010). For pre­ and techniques well known for controlling the spread of invasive species dicting the potential distribution of invasive taxa in their invaded range, (cartographic studies of distribution ranges, monitoring, management ecological or climatic niche modelling is used (Broennimann and Gui­ and other methods to control these species) (Tokarska-Guzik, 2005 and san, 2008; Fernandez´ and Hamilton, 2015; Ramírez-Albores et al., 2016; the literature cited therein). However, modern methodological and Jovanovi´c et al., 2018). technical facilities are often used to refine and automate the whole Remote sensing is increasingly being used to study invasive species research. These may enable a more detailed analysis of ranges of inva­ of plants as it allows modelling their spread and may be a tool for rapid sive species occurrence and the dynamic of invasiveness, as well as and efficient monitoring in the future (Ishii and Washitani, 2013; Roc­ preparation of more effective activities aiming to combat them. The chini et al., 2015; Chance et al., 2016; Müllerova´ et al., 2017; Martin * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (K. Bzdęga), [email protected] (A. Zarychta), [email protected] (A. Urbisz), [email protected] (S. Szporak-Wasilewska), [email protected] (M. Ludynia), [email protected] (B. Fojcik), [email protected] (B. Tokarska-Guzik). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107204 Received 28 November 2019; Received in revised form 13 November 2020; Accepted 18 November 2020 Available online 8 December 2020 1470-160X/© 2020 University of Silesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). K. Bzdęga et al. Ecological Indicators 121 (2021) 107204 et al., 2018). 2011). Geostatistics as a branch of applied statistics began in the mining Therefore, many legal conditions are being implemented to minimize 0 industry in the early 1950 s (Krige, 1951), and the first geostatistical or prevent this phenomenon. Identification of priority invasive plant concepts were developed by Matheron (1962), Matheron (1965). The species and identification of various pathways and vectors of their dynamic development of geostatistical methods has contributed to their introduction seems particularly important. Attention should also be paid use in other fields, mainly in earth and environmental sciences. Apart to techniques for rapid detection of newly arrived alien species and from mining geology (Van der Meer, 2006; Mucha and Wasilewska- monitoring of previously established ones (Genovesi and Shine, 2004; Błaszczyk, 2012; Shirazi et al., 2018), these methods are used in a va­ COM, 2011; Convention on Biological Diversity, 2014; Regulation UE, riety of studies and fields, such as hydrogeology (Dai et al., 2017), hy­ 2014). drology (Shaqour et al., 2016), climatology and meteorology (Ishida and Currently, a marked growing interest in research on prediction of Kawashima, 1993; Kwiatkowska-Malina and Borkowski, 2014; Pravi­ plant spread from the place of their introduction may be observed lovic et al., 2018), geomorphology (Zarychta, 2015), soil science (Ferr´e (Gallien et al., 2010; Elith, 2014; Gillard et al., 2017). et al., 2015; Zarychta and Zarychta, 2015; Veronesi and Schillaci, 2019), Due to the fact that data on the current distribution of invasive alien and remote sensing (Ciampalini et al., 2012). plants is essential for understanding the process of their spreading and Geostatistical methods are also used to analyse spatial patterns of occupying new habitat types, different concepts of invasion ecology, insect populations and their spatial structural dynamic in different types environmental variables, types and data sources (e.g. literature data of environments. This can be important in ecological studies and pest such as scientific publications, unpublished floristic data, distribution management (Zhou et al., 2012). maps provided from online databases, herbarium collections and field Geostatistical modelling and remote sensing data have allowed to observation data) are used and analyzed. estimate the spatiotemporal dynamics of an agrocoenosis vegetative A thorough estimation of the occurrence of invasive species together cover (Zhukov et al., 2013) and describe spatial variations in Leaf Area with their potential to occupy new areas is especially important for Index (LAI) in subtropical forests (Zhu et al., 2016). Despite the management policy and protection of valuable natural areas (Robertson demonstrated usefulness of geostatistical methods in natural sciences, et al., 2010; Groom, 2013a, 2013b). the number of studies using them in plant species spatial distribution is Such data are collected in different online information systems with still small. Among the available geostatistical techniques, ordinary different coverage: global such as CABI (2018), GISD (2018), and GISP kriging is the most used, while multivariate estimation techniques (e.g. (2018); European such as DAISIE (2017), EASIN (2018), NOBANIS co-kriging) are less frequent in plant science studies. Works worth (2018), and EPPO (2018); and regional such as the National Biodiversity mentioning, address among others, the analyses of spatial distribution Data Centre - Ireland (2018), Alien Species in Poland (2018), and BFIS and preservation of the species richness and diversity in a shrub savanna (2018). (Batista et al., 2016), estimation of changes in the distribution of There is an urgent need to develop and apply an effective alternative vascular plants (Groom, 2013a), mapping of Posidonia
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