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An Evaluation of Alternative Manual Landuse Forecasting Methods Used in Transportation Planning

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An Evaluation of Alternative Manual Landuse Forecasting Methods Used in Transportation Planning I I I I 78-5866 KHISTY, Clement Jotindrakumar, 1928- AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE MANUAL LANDUSE FORECASTING METHODS USED IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING. The Ohio State University, Ph.D., 1977 Engineering, civil University Microfilms International,Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE MANUAL LANDUSE FORECASTING METHODS USED IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING DISSERTATION Presented In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University Hy Clement Jotindrahumar Khisty, B.S., M.S., M.C.P. » » * * » The Ohio State University 1977 Reading Committee: Approved By Dr. Zoltan A. Nemeth Dr. Slobodan Mitric A. Nemeth, Adviser Dr. Burkhard von Rabenau Spartmenfc of Civil Engineering Dr. Joseph Treiterer ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation has roots going back at least to 1970. Many people have contributed, in different ways and at different times, to its formulation. Among them are the staffs of the transportation and landuse planning agencies involved. The literature furnished by these agencies has been invaluable. The summaries of the landuse fore­ casting and distribution methods contained in this dissertation are excerpted from this literature. The author would like to express his appreciation to all these agencies. Thanks are also extended to Dr. Michael Godfrey, Dr. Slobodan Mitric, Dr. Zoltan Nemeth and Dr. Burkhard von Rabenau for their sin­ cere interest, encouragement and guidance throughout the course of this research. My deepest debt is to my friend Beverly Pritchett. She not only typed the final document, but also took up the responsibility of editing and proofreading the entire dissertation. VITA July k, 1928......... Born - Nagpur, Maharashtra, India I9H8................ B.S., Civil Engineering, Nagpur University, Nagpur, India 19k8-1957 .......... Civil Engineer, Department of Public Works and Electricity, India 1958-1959 .......... West German Government Fellowship 1959-196 9 .......... Officer in the Department of Technical Education, Ministry of Education, India 1970................ M.S., Civil Engineering, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio 1970-1973 .......... Transportation Engineer, Ohio-Kentucky- Indiana Regional Planning Authority, Cincinnati, Ohio 1973................ M.C.P., University of Cincinnati, Cin­ cinnati, Ohio 1973-1971* ........... Senior Transportation Engineer, Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission, Columbus, Ohio 197*1—1975 .......... Teaching Associate, Department of Civil Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1975- .............. Principal Planner, Toledo Metropolitan Area Council of Governments, Toledo, Ohio PUBLICATIONS Some Selected Publications are: "Transportation Pooling, 11 Toledo Metropolitan Area Council of Govern­ ments, Toledo, Ohio, February, 1976. iii "Transit Development in Central Ohio,” Traffic Engineering, Vol. U4, No. 1 0 , pp. 16-19, July, 197^. "Transportation Planning Process: Operations Plan," OKI Regional Planning Authority, Cincinnati, Ohio, April, 1972. "Structural Steel Tables," Asia Publishing House, London, U.K., 1972. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Civil Engineering Studies in-Transportation Engineering. Professors Michael B. Godfrey, Slobodan Mitric and Zoltan Nemeth Studies in Urban Economics. Professor Burkhard von Rabenau Studies in City and Regional Planning. Professors William Sims and Daniel Czamanski Studies in Transportation Geography. Professor Howard Gauthier Studies in Urban Sociology. Professor Kent Schwirian TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................... ii VTTA ................................... iii LIST OF TABLES....................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES ........ ....................... ix INTRODUCTION ......................................... 1 Chapter I. THE GENERAL PROBLEM............................ 2 The Planning Process. ....................... 2 The Problem................................. 3 Purpose and Scope of Research .................. 7 Research Approach ........ 7 Organization of This Research .................. 9 N o t e s ....................................... 10 II. THE NATURE OF PLANNING MODELS................... 11 Background ..... ......................... 11 Urban Spatial M o d e l s ......................... 11 Classification of M o d e l s ..................... 13 Characteristics of the Landuse Forecast and Landuse P l a n .............................. 17 Classification of Landuse Models .............. 18 Critique and Conclusions..................... 20 N o t e s ....................................... 23 III. SURVEY OF LANDUSE FORECASTING METHODS............ 25 Introduction ................................ 25 General Review . .......................... 25 Outlines of Ten Landuse Models ................ 28 Structural Linkages of the M o d e l s .............. Ul N o t e s ....................................... U7 v IV. A TEST OF TWO RESIDENTIAL LANDUSE MO D E L S ........... 1*9 Introduction .......................... 1*9 Methodological Problems....................... 50 Data Sources and their U s e ................... 51 Model Performance and the U - T e s t .............. 51 The Density-Saturation Gradient Method (DSGM) . 53 The Toledo M ethod............................ 65 Conclusions ..... TO N o t e s ....................................... 7U V. RECOMMENDATIONS AND GUIDELINES.................. 75 O v e r v i e w ................................... 75 General Guidelines Pertaining to Landuse Planning................................ 76 Specific Guidelines .......................... 8l Conclusions........................ 86 N o t e s ....................................... 88 APPENDIX A. SUMMARIES OF LANDUSE FORECASTING METHODS.......... 89 Akron, O h i o .............................. 89 Austin, T e x a s ............................... 99 Canton, O h i o ................................ 105 Chicago, Illinois ............................ 110 Columbus, O h i o .............................. 122 Kansas City, Missouri......................... 132 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma............ ll*3 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania................... 150 Rockford, Illinois .......................... 159 Toledo, O h i o ................................ 162 N o t e s ....................................... 175 B. DATA AND CALCULATIONS FOR THE D S G M ............... 176 C. DATA AND CALCULATIONS FOR THE TOLEDO METHOD .... 185 BIBLIOGRAPHY........................ 187 vi LIST OF TABLES Page 1. Landuse Studies Investigated ...................... 26 2. Residential Development Factors .................. 6l 3. U-Test at Ring and Census Tract L e v e l ............. 6k U. Capacity Landuse Projections by Planning Areas in City of T o l e d o ............................ &7 5. Development Cycle: Estimated Years Required to Achieve Given State of Development ........... 6? 6. Forecast Growth of Dwelling Units in Planning Areas. 68 7. Forecast and Actual Population for 1 9 7 k ........... 69 8. U-Test at Planning Area L e v e l .................... 71 9. U-Test at Census Tract Level ...................... 72 10. 1970 Travis County, Texas, Landuse With Projections to 1980 and 1990 (in acres).................. 102 11. Analysis of Existing Landuse Patterns Using Density- Saturation Gradient Method .................. 117 12. Allocating District Population to Zones Using Density-Saturation Gradient Method ........... 120 13. Employment by Industrial Category, Kansas City Metropolitan Region, 1970-1980-2000 ........... 138 lU. 1995 Projected Population by City, Association of Central Oklahoma Governments................ lU6 15. Percent of New Growth for 1970-1995 According to Allocation Model by Sectors, Rockford, Illinois . l6l 16. Inventory of Landuse Data, Toledo, O h i o ........... 166 17. Estimated Years Required to Achieve Given State of Development, Toledo, Ohio ................ 170 18. Distribution Worksheet, Toledo, Ohio .............. 172 19. Percentage Distribution of Remaining Growth, Toledo, O h i o ..................................... 173 20. Distribution Worksheet of Residential Development, Toledo, O h i o .............................. 17U 21. Groupings of Census Tracts Arranged by Distance from High Value Comer (DSGM)................ 176 22. 1965 Population, Density and Holding Capacity by Census Tracts (DSGM) ....................... 177 23. 1965 Residential Density by Distance Bands ......... 180 2k. 1965 Population as a Percentage of Maximum Holding Capacity by Distance B a n d s .................. l8l vii 25. 1971* Forecast of Population “by Distance Band and Census T r a c t .............................. 182 26. 197^ Actual Population by Distance Bands and Census Tracts ................................ 183 27. Distribution of Population to Census Tracts (DSGM)............................................. 18H 2 8. Planning Area to Census Tract (i9 6 0) Equi'va­ lency Table (Toledo M e t h o d ) ................... 185 29. Distribution of 197^ Forecast Population to Census Tracts, Toledo Method ............ .... 186 viii LIST OF FIGURES Page 1. The Transportation Planning Process .............. U 2. The Landuse/Transportation C y c l e ................ 12 3. Chadwick's Model Categorization .................. 13 U. Echenique's Model Classification ................ lU 5. Predictive and Planning M o d e l s ......... 16 6. Structural Linkage, Akron, O h i o .................. h2 7. Structural Linkage, Austin, Texas ............... k2 8. Structural Linkage, Canton, O h i o .............. k3 9. Structural Linkage,
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