Faculty of Environmental Sciences Ayisha Mohammed Humaid Al Khatri Behavior Analysis and Modeling of Stakeholders in Integrated Water Resource Management with a Focus on Irrigated Agriculture: A Case Study for an Agricultural Coastal Region in Oman Behavior Analysis and Modeling of Stakeholders in Integrated Water Resource Management with a Focus on Irrigated Agriculture: A Case Study for an Agricultural Coastal Region in Oman DISSERTATION In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doktor rerum naturalium (Dr. rer. nat.) Submitted to the Faculty of Environmental Sciences Technische Universität Dresden January 31th, 2018 by Ayisha Mohammed Humaid Al Khatri (MSc.) Mother land; Sultanate of Oman Reviewers: Prof. Dr. Niels Schütze, TU Dresden Prof. Dr. Rüdiger von der Weth, Dresden University of Applied Sciences Assoc. Prof. Dr. Slim Zekri, Sultan Qaboos University Examination location and date: Dresden, 13. September 2018 Übereinstimmungserklärung: Die Übereinstimmung dieses Exemplars mit dem Original der Dissertation zum Thema: „Behavior Analysis and Modeling of Stakeholders in Integrated Water Resource Management with a Focus on Irrigated Agriculture: A Case Study for an Agricultural Coastal Region in Oman“ wird hiermit bestätigt. .................................................. Ort, Datum .................................................. Unterschrift ii iii “All good decision processes are social processes.” Prof. Dr. Thomas Dietz A member of the Steering Committee of the Standing Group on International Relations (SGIR) of the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) “The problem is reflected in how we manage water resources currently available, and whether we think of ourselves as a society globally have the political and the right to support the policies and invest in programs that protect the natural environment around us, and preserve water resources, and seek to use less of them to achieve the best results.” Jacques Diouf The Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) iv Acknowledgments This thesis is reflecting efforts of five years of work and research. It intends to explain the dilemma of limitation in successes of the already applied solutions for the salt water intrusion occurring in the agricultural coastal region in northern Oman, with respect to the behavior of the stakeholders. It outlines how integrated water resource management can encompass social issues. I thank God for the patience He provided me throughout my studies and for providing me the assistance and encouragements of many people. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my thesis committee members and supervisors, Prof. Dr. Niels Schütze, Prof. Dr. Rüdiger v. d. Weth and Dr. Slim Zekri for the opportunity to conduct this research and for all their support, guidance and compassion till I was able to complete this study. My special thanks go to Prof. Dr.-Ing Gerd H. Schmitz and Dr.Franz Helmut Lennartz who facilitate the issue of being a PhD student and researcher in one of the highest leading universities in the world, TU Dresden. I would like to extend my thanks and appreciations as well to Dr. Jens Grundmann for co-supervising me in general, and for his support during attending and presenting the work in conferences and workshops. Special gratitude, as well, to the Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Water Resources in Oman for giving me the opportunity to pursue this study, providing me with the necessary data and for supporting me during the data collection period. In particular, I would like to thank Ali Al Shammari and Ahmed Al Rawahi for supporting me in the field, and Ahmed Al Barwani for going through the manuscript. My sincere thanks also to the farmers, local government representatives in Oman, water experts and researchers’ representatives who contributed their time and ideas to the research, either as survey respondents, interviewees or participants in workshops during exploring preliminary findings. My sincere gratitude goes to the Ministry of High Education in Oman and the Graduate Academy of TU Dresden for their financial support towards my PhD research. Many and more thanks to my relatives, colleagues at the Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Water Resources in Oman, my friends in Dresden, and to all members of the Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology in TU Dresden, for their support and help. Thanks to all members of my family and especially my brother Said Al Khatri, who supported me during the unconventional circumstances that I faced during my studies. A fondest thank goes to my father for encouraging me during my studies, and my mother for her prayers. Thanks to all who, in one way or another, made this study possible and remarkable. v vi Abstract The scarcity of freshwater resources in the Sultanate of Oman, makes it essential that both surface and groundwater resources are carefully managed. Introducing new water demand management tools is important, especially for the coastal agricultural areas (e. g. Al Batinah coastal region) which are affected by sea water intrusion. Based on a social survey performed during this work, the existing situation generates conflicts between different stakeholders (SHs) which have different interests regarding water availability, sustainable aquifer management, and profitable agricultural production. The current aim is to evaluate the implementation potential of several management interventions and their combinations by analysing opinions and responses of the relevant stakeholders in the region. Influencing the behavior and drivers affecting farmers’ decision-making manner, can be a valuable tool to improve water demand management. The work also introduces the use of a participatory process within the frame of an integrated water resources management (IWRM) to support decision makers in taking better informed decisions. Data were collected by questionnaires from different groups of stakeholders. These data were analysed statistically for each group separately as well as relations amongst groups by using the SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Science) software package. Differences were examined between opinions of farmers and decision makers (DM’s) regarding potential interventions. Farmers’ frequency curves showed differences in opinions in some interventions, while differences in opinions were not so high within the group of DM’s. Therefore, Cross Tabulation and Discriminant Analysis (DA) were performed to identify the drivers influencing farmers’ opinions regarding the intervention measures. As an advanced step, a Bayesian Networks (BNs) approach is used for mapping stakeholders’ behaviors and to show the strength of a relationship between dependent and predictor variables. By using BNs it is possible to analyse future scenarios for implementation and acceptance of interventions. Key words: Stakeholders, Participatory process, Bayesian Networks, IWRM, Oman vii viii Contents Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................................... v Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... vii Contents ................................................................................................................................................... ix List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... xiii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ xv List of Symbols and Abbreviations ........................................................................................................ xvii 1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Motivation ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Regional Background ..................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Objectives and Structure of the Thesis ......................................................................................... 5 2 Literature Review .................................................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Participatory Approaches – Stakeholders into Support Tools for Decision Making in IWRM .... 13 2.1.1 How Society can be involved ............................................................................................... 13 2.1.2 Advantages of the Participatory Approach ......................................................................... 14 2.2 Stakeholders Relationships and Biological, Physical, Socio-economic Interactions in Water Resources ................................................................................................................................................ 15 2.3 Behavior Modeling of Stakeholders ............................................................................................ 19 2.3.1 The Use of Statistical Analysis of Questionnaires in IWRM ................................................ 19 2.3.2 Common Approaches in Supporting the Decision-Making Process