THE SPRING 2019 PLOUGHSHARES MONITOR VOLUME 40 | ISSUE 1

The Khashoggi Affair Arms sales, murder, and the illusion of firmness

Civil Society is under Surveillance And why it matters

The Future of War Missiles, space, How the Military and the United is using AI States in 2019 It's time to worry

It's a new race The Nobel Peace to the Lectures (and beyond)! Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad on Let's ensure we keep combating war crimes the peace “and they shall beat their swords into ploughshares, The Ploughshares Monitor and spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift Volume 40 | Issue 1 up sword against nation; neither shall they learn war PROJECT PLOUGHSHARES STAFF any more.” Isaiah 2:4 Cesar Jaramillo Executive Director

Julia Bandura Matthew Pupic Tasneem Jamal Benjamin Skinner Branka Marijan Wendy Stocker Sonal Marwah Barbara Wagner Spring 2019 Jessica West

From the Director’s desk The Khashoggi affair The Ploughshares Monitor is the quarterly by Cesar Jaramillo 3 journal of Project Ploughshares, an operating division of The Canadian Council of Churches. Ploughshares works with churches, nongovernmental organizations, and Preserving the peace governments, in Canada and abroad, to advance policies and actions that prevent war and armed The new race to the moon—and beyond violence and build peace. Project Ploughshares by Jessica West is affiliated with the KCU Centre for Peace 6 Advancement, Conrad Grebel University College, University of Waterloo.

Office address: Protecting our heritage Project Ploughshares 140 Westmount Road North A conversation with Michelle Hanlan about the Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G6 Canada Moon and culture 519-888-6541, fax: 519-888-0018 9 [email protected]; www.ploughshares.ca by Jessica West Project Ploughshares gratefully acknowledges the ongoing financial support of the many individuals, national churches and church agencies, local congregations, religious orders, and organizations across Canada that ensure The future of war that the work of Project Ploughshares continues. Missiles, space, and the U.S. in 2019 12 by Jessica West We are particularly grateful to The Simons Foundation Canada in Vancouver for its generous support.

The military, AI, and why it's time to worry All donors of $50 or more receive Weapons with autonomy are sneaking in a complimentary subscription to The Ploughshares Monitor. Annual 15 by Branka Marijan subscription rates for libraries and institutions are: $35 in Canada, $45 (U.S.) in the United States, $50 (U.S.) internationally. Single copies are $5 plus shipping.

Unless indicated otherwise, material may be Civil society under surveillance reproduced freely, provided the author and And why it matters source are indicated and one copy is sent to Project Ploughshares. Return postage 18 by Branka Marijan is guaranteed. Publications Mail Registration No. 40065122. ISSN 1499-321X.

The Ploughshares Monitor is indexed Combating war crimes in the Canadian Periodical Index. Lectures from the 2018 Nobel Peace Laureates 21 by Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad Printed at Waterloo Printing, Waterloo, Ontario. Printed with vegetable inks on paper with recycled content. Funded by the Government of Canada

The Ploughshares Monitor, the quarterly publication of Project Ploughshares, is available online at www.ploughshares.ca. From the Director’s Desk

From the Director’s Desk The Khashoggi affair: Arms sales, murder, and the illusion of firmness

Written by Cesar Jaramillo

stanbul, Turkey. Tuesday, October 2, I2018. At exactly 1:14 p.m., exiled Saudi citizen Jamal Khashoggi enters the consulate of Saudi Arabia in the heart of the Turkish metropolis. He wears gray pants and a beige shirt with a black sports jacket. With his round, bespectacled face, receding hairline, and incipient white

beard, he could pass for Jamal Khashoggi is filmed moments before entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on October 2, 2018. CBC a university professor. In fact, he is a staunch he might be interrogated or, worse, forcibly critic of the Saudi regime and a columnist for returned to Saudi Arabia. What neither of The Washington Post. them envisions is that Jamal Khashoggi will Khashoggi is tending to a personal matter: not leave the consulate alive. Or that his death he requires consular documentation to get will unleash an international diplomatic storm married—the second time for the 59-year- that will test the true commitment of Western old journalist—to Hatice Cengiz, his Turkish liberal democracies to the protection of human fiancée, 22 years his junior. He knows that he is rights. on the blacklist of the Saudi government and, in particular, in the crosshairs of the powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has State-sponsored murder been a frequent target of Khashoggi’s diatribes The multiple, changing versions of events in The Post. In the apparent safety of a foreign released by the Saudi government singly and country, however, Khashoggi lowers his guard. collectively defy credibility. But, individually Cengiz waits outside the consulate, with clear and together they seek to exculpate Prince instructions to alert the media and authorities Mohammed bin Salman of any responsibility in if anything delays his departure. They fear the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. More broadly,

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 3 From the Director’s Desk

they serve to deny any direct link between the Intelligence Agency, the murder could only incident and the government of Saudi Arabia. have been carried out with the approval of the The truth, highest levels however, has of the Saudi gradually government surfaced— and, in largely thanks particular, of to an audio Crown Prince recording of Mohammed the events bin Salman. inside the In an consulate that intercepted the Turkish conversation government from a year was somehow before the able to killing that

produce, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, top, looks toward Prime Minister Justin surfaced in and which it Trudeau as they arrive to take part in a family photo at the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina early 2019, on Friday, Nov. 30, 2018. Sean Kilpatrick/CP sent to the he tells an intelligence aide that he agencies of the United States and several will “use a bullet” on Khashoggi should the European governments. Khashoggi’s struggle, journalist’s criticism of the Kingdom persist. his futile pleas for his life, and the moment of his last breath were apparently all captured in that recording. Human rights vs. commercial interests It is now clear that Jamal Khashoggi was the While the Khashoggi murder illustrated the victim of premeditated murder. Video footage Saudi regime’s contempt for human rights and from the Istanbul airport and security cameras warranted intense media attention, it was only throughout the city indicate that at least a the latest incident in a consistent pattern of dozen operatives from the Saudi intelligence repression and human-rights violations at home services arrived in Istanbul a few hours before and abroad. By any modern standard, Saudi Khashoggi was scheduled to visit the consulate. Arabia is a human-rights pariah. The commandos, led by General Ahmad According to Washington-based Freedom Asiri—a known confidant of Mohammed bin House, the country is among the “worst of the Salman—headed back to the airport, then to worst” human-rights offenders in the world. Riyadh, immediately after Khashoggi was killed Year after year, authoritative organizations such and his body methodically dismembered for as Amnesty International and Human Rights discreet disposal outside the consulate. Watch condemn the consistent, systematic Agnes Callamard, the repression of the Saudi civilian population special rapporteur leading an inquiry into the by the governing regime. The Canadian death, has called the incident “a brutal and government’s own human-rights assessment on premeditated killing, planned and perpetrated the Kingdom points to the “high number of by officials of the state of Saudi Arabia.” executions, repression of political opposition, Western intelligence agencies concur: an arbitrary arrest, suppression of freedom of operation of such magnitude required prior expression and discrimination against women.” authorization. According to the U.S. Central Saudi violations of human rights and

4 The Ploughshares Monitor Spring 2019 From the Director's Desk

international humanitarian law are not have to sell weapons to the Saudis. Strategic confined to home territory. The catastrophic considerations related to Saudi Arabia’s regional humanitarian crisis currently facing influence, including its stand against the Iranian neighbouring Yemen is the direct result of a government, as well as the power it wields in the military intervention led by Saudi Arabia. A global oil market, also constitute key factors. UN panel has denounced the “widespread and systematic attacks on civilian targets” by the Saudi coalition in Yemen, and organizations A troubling precedent such as the International Committee of the The Canadian government claims that it would Red Cross have indicated that the bombing likely face financial penalties if it were to cancel campaign, operated by Saudi Arabia, the 2014 multi-billion-dollar deal to sell light indiscriminately targets combatants and armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia. By this civilians alike. logic, it seems that the Government of Canada’s Yet leaders the world over refuse to sanction sovereign mandate, prerogative, and obligation the reprehensible behaviour of Saudi Arabia. to faithfully implement the law—including Weeks after the killing, Canadian Prime cancellations of arms export permits—are Minister Justin Trudeau pledged, with apparent somehow subordinate to the language of a resolve, that Canada would “not hesitate” to commercial contract. freeze arms exports to Saudi Arabia after the And this raises some troubling questions. horrific assassination, emphasizing that Canada How can the duty to implement the law will be “firm” in promoting and protecting be trumped by financial expediency? Is the human rights. government attempting to deflect the focus However, as the media storm has subsided, it from international human-rights obligations to the size of the financial penalty Canada would pay? How much would The catastrophic humanitarian crisis Canada be willing to pay to support human currently facing neighbouring Yemen is rights abroad? Why the direct result of a military intervention led by is Canada seen to be breaking the contract if Saudi Arabia. it suspends shipments, but Saudi Arabia isn’t has become clear that the deed will mostly go when it commits gross violations of human unpunished. Germany took the bold measure rights, in defiance of domestic and international of halting all arms shipments to Saudi Arabia. export regulations? But, with the United States, the United The unrelenting pattern of human-rights Kingdom, France, and Canada continuing to violations in Saudi Arabia, the deterioration of “export arms to the Kingdom, it seems unlikely the humanitarian situation in Yemen, and the that the German example will be replicated. assassination of Jamal Khashoggi have served Why so little negative response to such to mobilize public opinion in Canada and other egregious behaviour? The answer, to a arms-exporting countries against the Saudis. significant extent, has to do with the lucrative But, thus far, most countries have opted to keep contracts that some arms-exporting countries the juicy contracts. □

Cesar Jaramillo is Executive Director of Project Ploughshares. He can be reached at [email protected].

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 5 The Race to the Moon

The race to the Moon— and beyond Preserving the peace

Written by Jessica West

new space race is on. Symbolized by United States and Russia, but China and other the historic landing of China’s robotic ascending powers. India’s second robotic mission A explorer on the far side of the Moon, the to the Moon is expected to launch later this goal this time is to create a permanent human year. Japan’s lunar program includes plans for presence on the Moon and beyond. Let’s hope a robotic base. The European Space Agency that, as the race heats up, we don’t forget the also has a robotic lunar program and interest in lessons of the past that can help to preserve resource extraction. The United Arab Emirates peace in outer space. will participate with NASA in lunar missions that are a preamble to an ambitious journey to Mars. Racing to the Moon: Then and now Nonstate participants include Israeli Sparked by the Soviet Union’s launch of the nonprofit SpaceIL, which launched the first first artificial satellite in 1957 and culminating private robotic lander to the Moon in February, in the lunar footprints by U.S. astronaut and will be followed by commercial company in 1969, the first space race Moon Express. Others—such as ispace and showcased the military, economic, and cultural Astrobotic—are setting up businesses to shuttle competition between two superpowers. items between Earth and the Moon. Billionaires The goal of today’s space race is more than Elon Musk (SpaceX) and Jeff Bezos (Blue flags and footprints. According to the United Origin) have long-term goals for the human States, the intent is to establish a permanent colonizing of space. presence on the Moon as “a foundation for an eventual mission to Mars and, perhaps someday, to many worlds beyond.” This is a marathon, An unclear vision of peace not a sprint. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST) was This new lunar race involves not only the established to preserve outer space as a global

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commons to be used by all for peaceful purposes. stretched as states engage in more active uses of It stipulates that the exploration and use of outer space, which can seem aggressive, or depict outer space is to be “carried out for the benefit outer space as a warfighting domain. What and in the interest of all countries.” The Moon this means for the Moon is not clear. Efforts to is reserved exclusively for peaceful purposes, operationalize peaceful uses in the 1979 Moon with the treaty prohibiting military bases, Treaty failed. It is imperative to both define and fortifications, manoeuvres, and testing of restrict nonpeaceful behaviours, and to think weapons. expansively about the meaning of peace and To advance humanity’s presence in outer universal benefit. space and share the benefits fairly, the world’s governments must clarify and reaffirm the principle of peaceful use. Otherwise, a space race that is already marked by strategic Controlling the use of weapons competition, military tensions, and a growing in outer space focus on warfighting capabilities could result in The first space race coincided with a nuclear unspeakable harm far beyond our planet. arms race, with rockets common to both. Since This is not simply a matter of distinguishing then, there has been no end to Doomsday- between military and civilian uses of space, like plans for weaponizing outer space. For which can look alike, sometimes on purpose. this reason, the OST specifically banned the Nonaggressive military use of satellites in outer stationing or orbiting of weapons of mass space has long been considered “peaceful.” But destruction on the Moon or elsewhere in outer the idea of acceptable military use is being space.

Sparked by the Soviet Union’s launch of the first artificial satellite in 1957 and culminating in the lunar footprints by U.S. astronaut Neil Armstrong in 1969, pictured above, the first space race showcased the military, economic, and cultural competition between two superpowers. NASA

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 7 The Race to the Moon

But the business of controlling arms in other national space agencies, including that outer space isn’t done. While to the best of my of Russia, to create a new international space knowledge, outer space remains free of weapons, station in lunar orbit as a gateway to deep- space exploration. The European Space Agency is promoting All cultures on Earth value the Moon. a global Moon They need to have a say in the activities Village. Airbus heads a partnership that that take place there and how the Moon should launched not-for- be protected. The Moon must not become the profit organization The Moon Race to possession of one state or group. involve the private sector in cooperative, sustainable lunar there is a growing risk that, as geopolitical exploration. But we need to make sure that all tensions grow and space becomes key to cooperation remains true to the principle of warfighting, military confrontation will follow. universal benefit. “Despite various efforts at the United Nations, there is currently no serious dialogue that might lead to arms control in space. And the risks are Messages of peace growing for all of us. Direct confrontation in Outer space is part of our common human outer space could poison the environment—in heritage. Achievements on the Moon and in deep outer space and on Earth. And it could distort space are the achievements of all humanity. The the goals of the current Moon race. peoples of Earth need to have a say in what future achievements should be. As the stakes become higher, it is critical to ensure that our Expanding cooperation many voices and interests are represented, and Cooperation is a core component of peace in that the benefits that follow will be shared by all outer space. Early efforts to nurture cooperation peoples. between the United States and Soviet Union All cultures on Earth value the Moon. were stymied by distrust and the intensity of They need to have a say in the activities that competition. But over time, space exploration take place there and how the Moon should be and science emerged as focal points of protected. The Moon must not become the unprecedented collaboration. possession of one state or group. The International Space Station is the single The astronauts, the first to visit most expensive object ever built—and it was the Moon, left behind a tiny disc inscribed with built by the cooperative efforts of many nations, messages of peace and goodwill from 74 different including Canada. Today, there is evidence that nations. For the first time since the Apollo this spirit of cooperation is extending to new program, we are in a moment in which we could lunar missions. expand humanity’s presence beyond Earth. The United States and China collaborated on Whether or not it will change our collective the Chang'e 4 lunar landing. There is growing destiny, it provides an opportunity for a new momentum, led by NASA and supported by beginning. Let that beginning be built on peace. □

Jessica West is a program officer with Project Ploughshares. She can be reached at [email protected].

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The race to the Moon— and beyond Protecting Q our heritage &A Jessica West in conversation with Michelle Hanlon, co-founder of For All Moonkind

essica West: You have taken an interesting piqued. Since humans have been interacting route to your present role as President with space for a relatively short period of Jof the not-for-profit organization For All time, people don’t really think about heritage Moonkind, one with some Canadian connections. in space. But there are more than 80 sites on For instance, you earned your LLM in Air and the Moon that host humanmade materials— from McGill University in Montreal; including Luna-2, the first ever humanmade along with Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield, object to reach the Moon; the Apollo 11 lunar you are an Advisor to the Creative Destruction module that supported the first human landing Lab in Toronto. You’re also Associate Director on the Moon; and the Chinese rover! of the National Center for Remote Sensing, These sites bear witness to humanity’s Air and Space Law at the University of greatest technological achievement: breaking Mississippi, and have an interesting legal career our terrestrial bonds to explore, and use, space. in commercial and public law. What inspired And we do mean all of space. I like to say that you and cofounder Tim Hanlon to start For All just as several sites on Earth are considered Moonkind in 2017? cradles of our human civilization, Tranquility Base marks the cradle of our spacefaring future. For All Moonkind seeks to protect and preserve Michelle Hanlon: A statement by Jan Woerner, all our heritage in outer space, but starts with chair of the executive board of the German the Moon because it offers the most tangible Aerospace Centre, made me think about human sites to demonstrate our mission. heritage in space. At a meeting in China in 2016, While there is a relatively robust regime to he told the press: “I sometimes make the joke: protect human heritage here on Earth, those ‘Okay, let’s have a European mission to go to the protections do not extend to heritage in space. Moon and bring back the American flag.’” But it’s not just about the “bootprint.” I am a space lawyer and my curiosity was Certainly, it would be devastating on multiple

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 9 The Race to the Moon

levels if humanity’s first off-world footsteps were accidentally or intentionally erased or otherwise disturbed. But what’s more According to NASA, the first important is the unity that bootprints on the Moon, seen preservation can achieve. here in illustrated form, will be there for a million years. One hundred ninety- There is no wind to blow three nations have them away. ratified the World Heritage Convention. Every nation on Earth recognizes the importance of preserving our history. At For All Moonkind, we believe this message of unity and community is an important one to advance as the human race continues to take baby steps toward a future that is inexorably tied to space. If people can come together as a community to recognize and protect our history in space, perhaps we support can build on that unity as we continue our from exploration of, and expansion into, space. commercial entities. The private companies that are going back to the JW: What are the greatest threats to the Moon—PTScientists, Astrobotic, TeamIndus— preservation of human culture on the Moon? have formally pledged their support of our Mission. Their CEOs are members of our Leadership Board. And many other aerospace MH: Lack of awareness and complacency! companies have lent their support both formally People don’t really think about heritage in and informally. space. Given this, we have decided to create an Many “space” people believe that the sites alternate track to a Convention. We are working are protected by Article IX of the Outer with private entities to develop agreed guidelines Space Treaty, which requires that all activity and principles regarding heritage. PTScientists in space be conducted with “due regard to has already signed a Declaration and we are the corresponding interests of all other States moving into a second phase of drafting with Parties to the Treaty.” However, there is no legal several other companies. We actually see the definition of “due regard.” What does it mean? commercial “buy-in” happening more swiftly It can’t possibly mean that you can never move than formal advancement at the government any object placed by another nation on another level. celestial body in space, as this could potentially Still, we have been granted Observer status at lead to incredible absurdities. the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space and remain deeply grateful JW: How have the goals of For All Moonkind for the consideration and recognition we have been received internationally? received from the UN’s Office for Outer Space Affairs and all of the members and observers of MH: Interestingly, we have received the greatest COPUOS.

10 The Ploughshares Monitor Spring 2019 The Race to the Moon

JW: I’ve been reading about Apollo 11 and of the World Heritage Convention indicate that watching videos about that mission. It’s 193 nations agree that it is important to preserve fascinating and thrilling. And this is just one of our human heritage. That’s certainly one small many stories. What do you hope that humans step on the way to peace. will learn from the history of human lunar Our first footprints on the Moon were made exploration? by American Neil Armstrong. However, Armstrong made it to MH: Archaeologists will the Moon on the backs tell you that our journey of tens of thousands of to the Moon confirms engineers and scientists human beings as a who worked around migratory, exploratory the clock to build his species. And the sites spacecraft. And those on the Moon offer engineers and scientists incredible treasure. relied on centuries of They are the very first science and astronomical archaeological sites observations produced that are not on Earth, by humans from around and they are pristine, the globe. untouched by other We can only view our humans and preserved steps on the Moon— by an atmosphere that and all our heritage in has no weather. space—as memorials We must not forget to our common, that we reached the human achievement. Moon at a time of great Preservation reminds us strife on Earth. What that we are one species. does that tell us about Michelle Hanlon is the co-founder of For All Moonkind. The universality of our ourselves? What’s the achievements in space difference between the Cold War competition can guide us to universal and unifying goals. and the New Space competition that rages The biggest challenge is the apathy and today? The lessons of history are there for us, lack of awareness of the general public. The and we’d be wise to heed them. good news is that this is being recognized at the governmental level. Included in the Long- term Sustainability Guidelines agreed by JW: Peace is an underlying theme of your work. COPUOS last June is the need to raise awareness Can you explain the connection between cultural among the general public. Slowly but surely, preservation and peace? How does For All governments are recognizing that the populace Moonkind contribute to this goal? needs to understand just how intertwined our lives are with space. □ MH: Russel Train realized that recognition of our common human heritage can strengthen “a sense of kinship with one another as part of a A longer version of this interview can be found single, global community.” The 193 ratifications at www.Ploughshares.ca.

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 11 The Future of War

SNAPSHOT The future of war Missiles and space as seen by the United States in 2019

Written by Jessica West

Two new policy documents released in the United States cast light on what future war could look like, especially the central and entwined roles of missiles and outer space.

The Missile Defense Review (MDR)

What is it? MDR is a review of the status of U.S. missile defence capabilities, the perceived level of threat, and a roadmap for future investment priorities and technology development; an unclassified version was released to the public on January 17, 2019.

What's new? It reveals the U.S. government’s desire to expand the role, goals, and technical capabilities of its ballistic missile defence systems.

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Expanded role In addition to containing regional threats posed by North Korea and Iran, missile defence capabilities are also being developed to supplement traditional nuclear deterrence in response to the capabilities of strategic actors Russia and China.

Expanded goal The review expands the focus of missile defence beyond ballistic missiles to cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles.

Expanded capabilities The review emphasizes the development of capabilities to intercept missiles at the early, boost-phase of flight and directs the Department of Defense to explore options to achieve this end, including:

• The use of F-35 Lightning fighter planes armed with a kinetic interceptor;

• A high-energy laser mounted on an unmanned drone;

• A study of the development and fielding of an intercept layer orbited in space.

Space is a recurring theme when the future of missile defence is discussed. The review prioritizes a space-based sensor layer to facilitate the interception and tracking of missile launches, including hypersonic weapons, from “birth to death.”

Space Policy Directive-4: Establishment of the United States Space Force

What is it?

Signed by President Trump on February 19, 2019, this directive calls on the Department of Defense to “marshal its space resources to deter and counter threats in space” and to propose legislation to establish a Space Force as a sixth branch of the U.S. military within the Department of the Air Force, as a “step toward a future military department for space.”

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 13 The Future of War

What's new?

If approved by Congress, the Space Force is intended to ensure an unrestricted ability to access and operate in space, and to provide vital capabilities for the U.S. armed forces at all times, including “across the spectrum of conflict.” The directive views outer space as an independent domain of warfare and not only as a site from which to provide support to military operations on Earth. In response to perceived military threats, it suggests a more aggressive use of outer space, directing the new Space Force to engage in both combat and noncombat operations, which could be both offensive and defensive.

Analysis

These two documents point to the emergence of a new U.S. security policy that anticipates less constrained warfare and strategic confrontation. President Trump has declared that U.S. capabilities will be aimed at destroying enemy missiles “anywhere, anytime, anyplace,” reflecting what theUnion of Concerned Scientists labels a “missile defeat” policy.

Missiles clearly have a central role in this vision and in that of other states. While the Intermediate- Range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the United States and Russia was abrogated on February 1, 2019, missile capabilities and defence systems are being advanced in China, Iran, North Korea, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

This new arms race suggests that the era of arms-length nuclear deterrence is ending. The MDR signals more direct engagement with powerful forces such as Russia and China in local theatres of conflict. Such engagement invites escalation, which seems increasingly likely in outer space.

Developments by any space power on future missile defence interceptors in orbit would certainly provoke reaction from other powers. Plans for military confrontation in space threaten the continued existence of outer space as a domain for peaceful uses and the sustainability of the space environment. Strategic confrontation in space increases the odds of nuclear escalation on Earth. □

14 The Ploughshares Monitor Spring 2019 Autonomous Weapons

Autonomous weapons The military, AI, and why it's time to worry

Written by Branka Marijan

n February 2019, the U.S. Department So, what are we worried about? of Defense released Summary of the 2018 Shanahan’s comments implied that critics are IDepartment of Defense Artificial Intelligence only worried about the most sophisticated Strategy: Harnessing AI to Advance Our weapons imaginable. Not so. As Mary Security and Prosperity. The DoD’s first publicly Wareham, the advocacy director at Human released document on AI calls for greater Rights Watch who heads up the Campaign to application of AI technologies across the U.S. Stop Killer Robots, noted, “We are not talking military. Everything from decision-making to about walking, talking terminator robots identifying potential malfunctions of hardware that are about to take over the world; what will be shaped or monitored by AI systems. we are worried about is much more looming: There is no mention of fully autonomous conventional weapons systems with autonomy. weapons systems—still seemingly years away They are beginning to sneak in.” from development. During a briefing following The summary clearly states: “By improving the release of the summary, Air Force Lt. Gen. the accuracy of military assessments and Jack Shanahan, the director of the Pentagon’s enhancing mission precision, AI can reduce the new Joint Artificial Intelligence Center,stated , risk of civilian casualties and other collateral “We are nowhere close to the full autonomy damage.” This is the talk that is worrying. question that most people seem to leap to a Why? Because, as Paul Scharre, a former conclusion on when they think about DoD and U.S. Army Ranger and analyst at the Center AI.” for a New American Security, warns in his

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 15 Autonomous Weapons

book, Army of None: Autonomous Weapons lives. and the Future of War, there is a risk that But, as Bousquet illustrates in his book, military leaders will be “seduced by the allure promises of accuracy and precision often do not of machines—their speed, their seeming reflect the reality. So, while weapons are getting perfection, their cold precision.” more precise over time, they are still not able to prevent the harming of noncombatants. More importantly, autonomous weapons will The promise and reality be used in contexts determined by governments of precision weapons and militaries with political and strategic As Antoine Bousquet points out in his new agendas. Sophisticated weapons can still be book, The Eye of War: Military Perception used to commit atrocities. In 2018, for example, from the Telescope to the Drone, in the last few the Saudi-led coalition chose to bomb a school decades, military leaders and defence firms bus in Yemen. These choices will not go away have focused on the “surgical strikes” and with the introduction of autonomous weapons. pinpoint accuracy that modern weaponry is Nothing about these weapons can stop the supposed to make possible. In his view, such powers that own them from disregarding the descriptions fuel “delusional fantasies of possibility of collateral damage—or even frictionless exercises of power through military deliberately targeting civilians. force,” while “the high precision of modern weapon systems is often questionably invoked to assert ethical superiority by the side that Reframing our view uses them.” of autonomous weapons This ethical superiority has been observed The U.S. DoD’s strategy on AI reflects current in United Nations discussions on autonomous efforts by some to reframe the discussion on systems. The United States and some other autonomous systems in terms of its possible countries have suggested that autonomous benefits, especially for noncombatants. But weapons, in their hands, would protect civilian this isn’t the right focus. And we should

BELOW Though this illustration depicts what many people imagine when discussing the current state of autonomous weapons, Mary Wareham, the advocacy director at Human Rights Watch who heads up the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, explains: “What we are worried about is much more looming: conventional weapons systems with autonomy. They are beginning to sneak in."

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not be fooled by the allure of rhetoric that suggests that the use of AI in weapons will necessarily lead to better protection of civilians. The countries and groups that genuinely want to focus on reducing risk for noncombatants are not relying on technical solutions to what are ultimately political and ethical problems. Instead, they look to strengthen international laws and norms regulating warfare, including a ban on certain weapons that harm civilians. Given technical advancements and the appeal that the new technology holds what situations can weapons be legitimately for militaries, there is more than a employed)? little urgency to this task. There are incredible gaps in the international The greater the precision and accuracy of legal regime guiding military drones, which are already used by a number of countries and are There are incredible gaps in the under consideration by others, including international legal regime guiding military Canada. When is it drones, which are already used by a number of acceptable to employ drones as a weapon, countries and are under consideration by others, for example? And including Canada. When is it acceptable to employ what accountability measures are in place drones as a weapon, for example? to address the use of drones in non-conflict contemporary weapons, the more we need regions? to question how targets are determined and AI is being used and will be used by “when collateral damage is deemed legitimate. militaries, but it must be used within And there are other critical questions. Who internationally recognized limits. The best exactly are the civilians and the combatants way to ensure the beneficial uses of AI is to in a given conflict (in other words, who are have legally binding instruments in place that the appropriate humans to target)? What prohibit the use of weapons that are not under distinguishes peace from conflict (or, in human control. □

Branka Marijan is a Program Officer with Project Ploughshares. She can be reached at [email protected].

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 17 Cyber Security

Civil society Under surveillance —and why it matters

Written by Branka Marijan

ast December, Bahr Abdul Razzak, religious practices. a Syrian refugee and a researcher at In the months prior to this meeting, Citizen LCitizen Lab, a digital watchdog based at Lab had revealed that NSO Group software was the University of Toronto, received a message being used to infect the phones of dissidents, on LinkedIn. The message was from Gary human-rights activists, and journalists all over Bowman, a South African technology executive the world. Most notable was the cell phone based in Madrid. Bowman said that he had belonging to a friend of Jamal Khashoggi, the come across Razzak’s profile on LinkedIn journalist murdered in the Saudi embassy in and was impressed by his efforts to support Turkey. refugees, as well as his tech background. Razzak and his colleagues at Citizen Lab Bowman wanted to discuss a new tech initiative quickly discovered that the company Bowman with Razzak in person. The two agreed to meet supposedly worked for did not exist. They at a hotel in Toronto. alerted journalists from the Associated Press At the meeting, Razzak quickly realized and an AP reporter in Spain went to the that Bowman was not actually interested in address of Bowman’s company offices and discussing refugees or initiatives. Instead, found no trace of them. he asked questions about Razzak’s work at A few weeks later, Razzak’s colleague John Citizen Lab, his views on Israel and Israeli Scott-Railton received a message from a cyber-espionage company NSO Group, and his director of an agricultural tech firm based in

18 The Ploughshares Monitor Spring 2019 Cyber Security

Paris. After a careful search and assistance firms raises serious questions about how civil from AP, Scott-Railton realized that he, too, society organizations and ordinary citizens was being targeted. But Scott-Railton still are to protect their freedoms and rights. agreed to meet the French businessman in New York, armed with recording devices and with AP journalists close by. Again, the businessman was most interested in discussing the work of Citizen Lab. The journalists and researchers finally questioned the man openly, but didn’t learn much. They still don’t know who the two men were and why they were so interested in Citizen Lab.

Spies for hire If this sounds like something out of a le Carré novel, it should be noted that this experience is not unique to Citizen Lab. Many civil society groups and activists—yes, in Canada, as well as in many other countries—have solid grounds for believing that they have been and are still under surveillance—by national security These questions are just as valid in democratic agencies and now, increasingly, by private societies as in the countries in which citizens entities. still struggle to obtain these rights. In December 2017, The Guardian reported on In a recent op-ed posted on Al-Jazeera, a corporate spy using the alias Stefan Chase says that many organizations and individuals are engaged in corporate intelligence. According to Chase, finding a spy is as easy as ordering an Uber, as long as you have the cash to pay for the service.

Civil society vulnerabilities Civil society groups are easy targets for spies. As Lennart Maschmeyer, a PhD candidate at the University of Toronto and a fellow at Citizen Lab, points out, civil society groups lack the resources and tools to protect the widespread surveillance of political groups themselves against such actors and against by corporate intelligence firms. According to digital espionage capabilities. Few have the Guardian reporters, “the police have claimed resources and understanding of Citizen Lab. that commercial firms have had more spies Maschmeyer reinforces the idea that the embedded in political groups than there were targeting of civil society groups is not simply undercover police officers.” a concern in authoritarian states. But it is The lack of oversight and regulation of these certainly the case that private companies are

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 19 Cyber Security

providing spyware to authoritarian regimes. capabilities. Up-to-date digital literacy skills Some of this spyware is sophisticated, allowing are important for everyone today and they are governments to track the movements, and crucial for those involved in advocacy. gain access to the personal information, of Governments must also play their part. individual activists. Commercial spyware companies, particularly those that sell spyware that is then used to target human-rights It is not easy to prevent your organization activists and other nongovernmental from being monitored or infiltrated, organizations, must especially in this age of algorithms and smartphones. be regulated and controlled. As Maschmeyer notes, the effects of Private companies need to operate under infiltrating civil society organizations are a code of ethics that prohibits sales of difficult to assess. Financial damage rarely surveillance technologies to actors who are occurs. Rather, individuals and their family likely to use them to cause harm. members are persecuted in some way; in non- The Citizen Lab case provides a stark democratic countries they could be arrested. reminder of the need to protect the rights and And trust is lost, on many levels—by those freedoms of civil society groups. Not just for “directly involved, and within the extended the benefit of individuals, but for all of us who communities to which they belong. value democratic norms. □

The need for digital literacy and ethics In some societies, the effects of spying can be prison and even death for those who engage in civil society activities. In many others, the effects are not so extreme. However, when an organization is made to feel insecure, when it doesn’t know which, if any, of its members have ulterior motives, then activism and advocacy work suffer. It is not easy to prevent your organization from being monitored or infiltrated, especially in this age of algorithms and smartphones. But it is possible to become better aware of cybersecurity

20 The Ploughshares Monitor Spring 2019 Nobel Peace Lecture

Nobel Peace Lectures 2018

Combating war crimes

Both laureates have made a crucial contribution to focusing attention on, and combating, war crimes. Denis Mukwege is the helper who has devoted his life to defending these victims. Nadia Murad is the witness who tells of the abuses perpetrated against herself and others. Each of them in their own way has helped to give greater visibility to war-time sexual violence, so that the perpetrators can be held accountable for their actions. ~ The Nobel Foundation

Excerpts

y name is Denis Mukwege. I come from one items contain minerals found in our country. Mof the richest countries on the planet. Yet Often mined in inhuman conditions by young the people of my country are among the poorest children, victims of intimidation and sexual of the world. The troubling reality is that the violence. When you drive your electric car; abundance of our natural resources—gold, when you use your smartphone or admire your coltan, cobalt and other strategic minerals—is jewellery, take a minute to reflect on the human the root cause of war, extreme violence and cost of manufacturing these objects. abject poverty. We love nice cars, jewellery and gadgets. I have a smartphone myself. These With this Nobel Peace Prize, I call on the

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 21 Nobel Peace Lecture

world to be a witness and I urge you to join the measures that give survivors compensation us in order to put an end to this suffering that and satisfaction and enable them to start a shames our common humanity. The people of new life. It is a human right. I call on States to my country desperately need peace. support the initiative to create a Global Fund for reparations for victims of sexual violence in The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to us today armed conflicts. will be of value only if it leads to concrete change in the lives of victims of sexual violence Fourth, on behalf of all widows, all widowers all over the world and the restoration of peace and orphans of the massacres committed in in our countries. So, what can we do? What can the DRC and all Congolese in love with peace, you do? I call on the international community to finally consider the First, it is “Mapping Project incumbent upon all report” [conducted of us to act in this by the office of the direction. Taking United Nations action is a choice. High Commissioner Taking action for Human Rights, means saying ‘no’ to “which describes no indifference. If there fewer than 617 war is a war to be waged, crimes and crimes it is the war against against humanity and the indifference which perhaps even crimes is eating away at our of genocide”] and its societies. recommendations.

Second, we are all May justice prevail. indebted to these women and their loved-ones and ~ By Denis Mukwege we must all take ownership of this fight; including states World Health Organization Photo by ceasing to welcome oday is a special leaders who have tolerated, or worse, used Tday for all Iraqis, sexual violence to take power. States must stop not only because I am the first Iraqi to win welcoming them by rolling out the red carpet, the Nobel Peace Prize. It is also the day when and instead draw a red line against the use of we celebrate the victory of liberating Iraqi rape as a weapon of war. This red line would territory from the terrorist organization of ISIS. consist of imposing economic and political The Iraqis from the North to the South united sanctions on these leaders and taking them to their forces and fought a long battle on behalf court. of the world against this extremist terrorist Third, we must acknowledge the suffering organization. This unity gave us strength. We of the survivors of all acts of violence against also need to unite our efforts to investigate women in armed conflicts and support their the crimes of ISIS and prosecute those who holistic recovery process. I insist on reparations: welcomed, helped and joined them to control vast areas in Iraq. There should be no place for

22 The Ploughshares Monitor Spring 2019 Nobel Peace Lecture

terrorism and extremist ideas in post-ISIS Iraq; community has been subjected to genocide we must join forces in building our country; we for more than four years. The international must contribute together to achieve security, community did nothing to deter it nor to stability and prosperity for the benefit of all stop it. It did not bring the perpetrators to Iraqis. justice. Other vulnerable communities have In the 21st century, in the age of globalization been subjected to ethnic cleansing, racism and human rights, more than 6,500 Yazidi and identity change in plain sight of the children and women became captive and were international community. sold, bought, and sexually and psychologically The protection of the Yazidis and all abused. Despite our daily appeals since 2014, vulnerable communities around the world is the the fate of more than 3,000 children and women responsibility of the international community in the grip of ISIS is and international still unknown. Young institutions in charge girls at the prime of of defending human life are sold, bought, rights, the protection held captive and raped of minorities, the every day. protection of the For almost four rights of women and years, I have been children, especially in travelling around areas where conflicts the world to tell my and internal wars take story and that of place. my community and Let us all unite other vulnerable to fight injustice communities, without and oppression. Let having achieved us raise our voices any justice. The together and say: No perpetrators of sexual to violence, yes to violence against peace, no to slavery, Yazidi and other yes to freedom, no to women and girls are racial discrimination, yet to be prosecuted yes to equality and for these crimes. Globe and Mail Photo to human rights for If justice is not done, this genocide will be all. No to exploiting women and children, yes to repeated against us and against other vulnerable providing a decent and independent life to them, communities. Justice is the only way to achieve no to impunity for criminals, yes to holding peace and co-existence among the various criminals accountable and to achieving justice. components of Iraq. If we do not want to repeat cases of rape and captivity against women, ~ By Nadia Murad we must hold to account those who have used sexual violence as a weapon to commit crimes against women and girls. th We celebrate these days the 70 anniversary Copyright © The Nobel Foundation 2018 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which aims at preventing genocides and calls Both lectures were delivered in Oslo, Norway on December 10, 2018. They have been abridged for publication here. For for the prosecution of their perpetrators. My the complete lectures, go to www.nobelprize.org.

Spring 2019 The Ploughshares Monitor 23 Farewell, Sonal!

Project Ploughshares would like to announce that after four successful years handling the Forced Displacement and Migration file for Project Ploughshares, Program Officer Sonal Marwah has taken a position with Médecins Sans Frontières.

We wish Sonal all the best in her new post and thank her for her hard work and contributions to Project Ploughshares.

Join our work to advance international peace and security by making a donation today! Visit www.ploughshares.ca or call 519-888-6541.