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Hood River Basin Study: Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model Technical Memorandum

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Hood River Basin Study: Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model Technical Memorandum Hood River Basin Study: Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model Technical Memorandum U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Pacific Northwest Region Pacific Northwest Regional Office Boise, Idaho April 2014 MISSION OF THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Protecting America's Great Outdoors and Powering Our Future The U.S. Department of the Interior protects America's natural resources and heritage, honors our cultures and tribal communities, and supplies the energy to power our future. MISSION OF THE BUREAU OF RECLAMATION The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. Photograph on front cover: Cover photos adapted from Wikimedia Commons (top left to bottom right): “The Hood River at Tucker County Park” by Gary Halvorson, Oregon State Archives is licensed under CC BY 2.0. “Aerial view of Hood River, Oregon, USA” and “An orchard and barn near East Side Road”by Sam Beebe is licensed under CC BY 2.0. Hood River Basin Study: Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model Technical Memorandum U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Pacific Northwest Region Pacific Northwest Regional Office Boise, Idaho April 2014 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Purpose and Scope.............................................................................................. 8 2.0 Model Description ...................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Input Data ......................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Meteorological Data ............................................................................. 11 2.1.2 Land Cover and Vegetation ................................................................. 12 2.1.3 Soil Types and Depths ......................................................................... 12 2.1.4 Elevation .............................................................................................. 13 2.1.5 Other Processed Data ........................................................................... 13 2.1.6 Glacier Characteristics ......................................................................... 14 2.2 Model Calibration............................................................................................. 14 2.2.1 Glacier Characteristics ......................................................................... 15 2.2.2 Snowpack ............................................................................................. 15 2.2.3 Streamflow ........................................................................................... 20 3.0 Historical Results ....................................................................................................... 22 3.1 Glacial Characteristics ...................................................................................... 22 3.2 Snowpack ......................................................................................................... 23 3.3 Streamflow ....................................................................................................... 25 4.0 Future Climate Change Results ................................................................................ 34 4.1 Glacier Characteristics ..................................................................................... 35 4.2 Snowpack ......................................................................................................... 39 4.3 Streamflow ....................................................................................................... 41 5.0 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 44 6.0 Literature Cited .......................................................................................................... 45 April 2014 – Hood River Basin Study: Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model iii List of Figures Figure 1. Shaded relief map of the Basin with key stream gage locations and glaciers. ........... 7 Figure 2. Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) average annual precipitation and average maximum daily temperature for the Basin. ........................... 8 Figure 3. Locations of meteorological stations considered for the DHSVM model. .............. 11 Figure 4. Spatial land cover, soil, and elevation data sets used to physically characterize the Basin for the DHSVM model. .................................................................................................. 13 Figure 5. Calibrated cumulative precipitation results for the DHSVM model. ....................... 17 Figure 6. Calibrated snow water equivalent (SWE) results for the DHSVM model. .............. 18 Figure 7. Calibrated streamflow results for the DHSVM model. ............................................ 21 Figure 8. Simulated historical glacier characteristics from water years 1920 through 2009. .. 23 Figure 9. Simulated historical April 1 snow extent values, averaged across the Basin. .......... 24 Figure 10. Simulated historical monthly snow extent values, averaged across the Basin. ...... 25 Figure 11. Locations specified for DHSVM model streamflow outputs. ................................ 28 Figure 12. Comparison between monthly median simulated historical flows and the range between the 10th and 90th percentiles of the USGS regional regression method for Green Point Creek................................................................................................................................ 30 Figure 13. Comparison between monthly median simulated historical flows and the range between the 10th and 90th percentiles of the USGS regional regression method for the East Fork Hood River. ...................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 14. Statistical comparison of simulated historical and observed streamflows for the Hood River at Tucker Bridge. ................................................................................................... 32 Figure 15. Statistical comparison of simulated historical and observed streamflows for the West Fork Hood River near Dee. .............................................................................................. 33 Figure 16. Summary of climate change projection selection results for the Basin Study. ...... 34 Figure 17. Comparison of simulated historical glacier volume with simulated future glacier volume under each climate scenario. ........................................................................................ 36 Figure 18. Comparison of simulated historical glacier extent with simulated future glacier extent under each climate scenario. .......................................................................................... 36 Figure 19. Comparison of simulated historical glacier melt contributions with simulated future glacier melt contributions under each climate scenario for Eliot Branch. ..................... 37 Figure 20. Comparison of simulated historical glacier melt contributions with simulated future glacier melt contributions under each climate scenario for the Middle Fork Hood River. ................................................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 21. Comparison of simulated historical glacier melt contributions with simulated future glacier melt contributions under each climate scenario for the mainstem Hood River at Tucker Bridge. .......................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 22. Comparison of simulated historical glacier melt contributions with simulated future glacier melt contributions under each climate scenario for the entire Basin.................. 39 iv Hood River Basin Study: Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model – April 2014 Figure 23. Comparison of simulated historical snow extents with simulated future snow extents under each climate scenario for the entire Basin. ........................................................ 40 Figure 24. Comparison of simulated historical snow melt contributions with simulated future snow melt contributions under each climate scenario for the entire Basin. ............................. 40 Figure 25. Comparison of simulated historical streamflow with simulated future streamflow (in cfs) under each climate scenario for the Hood River at Tucker Bridge. ............................ 41 Figure 26. Comparison of simulated historical streamflow with simulated future streamflow under each climate scenario for the Middle Fork Hood River. ................................................ 42 Figure 27. Comparison of simulated historical streamflow with simulated future streamflow under each climate scenario for the East Fork Hood River. .................................................... 42 Figure 28. Comparison of simulated historical streamflow with simulated future streamflow under each climate scenario for the West Fork Hood River. ................................................... 43 List of Tables Table 1. NRCS SNOTEL stations used in the DHSVM model. ............................................
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