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Martin Indyk In UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws WHAT IS OBAMA’S FOREIGN POLICY LEGACY? NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2019 / / Trump’s Middle East • • • ’ ’ FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM FA_ND19_cover.indd All Pages 9/23/19 2:01 PM ISO 12647-7 Digital Control Strip 2009 3% A 100 60 100 70 30 100 60 100 70 30 100 60 100 70 30 100 40 40 100 40 100 40 70 40 70 40 40 40 70 40 40 70 40 70 40 40 3 10 25 50 75 90 100 B 100 100 60 100 100 70 70 30 30 100 100 60 100 100 70 70 30 30 100 100 60 100 100 70 70 30 30 100 40 100 40 40 100 10 40 40 20 70 70 70 70 40 70 40 40 0 0 0 0 3.1 2.2 2.2 10.2 7.4 7.4 25 19 19 50 40 40 75 66 66 100 100 100 80 70 70 100 UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws We’ll walk you through your privacy sett ings, step by step. Privacy Checkup helps you manage your most import ant sett ings in minutes. Another way we keep your data private, safe, and secure. g.co/privacy A24035c10E_illo_Phone_vert_PrivacyCheckup_3u_smp.psd B24035_40a_Safety19_ForeignAffairs_NovDec_Privacy.indd 09.10.2019 EPSON jn 1 ForeignAffairs_SP_090919_1.indd Saved at 3-28-2019 5:38 PM from SelmanDesign19 by Freelance10 / Adam Printed At None Job info Approvals Fonts & Images Job None CD Johnny Fonts Client Google Account Mgr Chris Google Sans (Regular, Medium) Media Type Studio Artist Cat Live 6.25 in x 9.25 in QC Adam Trim 7 in x 10 in Images Bleed 7.25 in x 10.25 in Pubs Foreign Affairs Notes Materials due: Sept. 23 Issue: Nov. / Dec. Inks Cyan, Magenta, Yellow, Black UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws Volume 98, Number 6 TRUMP’S MIDDLE EAST Disaster in the Desert 10 Why Trump’s Middle East Plan Can’t Work Martin Indyk The Dream Palace of the Americans 21 Why Ceding Land Will Not Bring Peace Michael S. Doran There Will Be a One-State Solution 30 But What Kind o State Will It Be? Yousef Munayyer The Unwanted Wars 38 Why the Middle East Is More Combustible Than Ever Robert Malley The Middle East’s Lost Decades 48 Development, Dissent, and the Future o the Arab World Maha Yahya America’s Great Satan 56 The 40-Year Obsession With Iran COVER: LINCOLN COVER: Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon The Tunisia Model 67 AGNEW Lessons From a New Arab Democracy Sarah Yerkes November/December 2019 FA.indb 1 9/20/19 7:02 PM UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws DECISIVE. PRINCIPLED. VERSATILE. TRANSITION FROM YOUR LIFE IN SPECIAL OPERATIONS TO PARAMILITARY OPERATIONS WITH THE CIA. With your special operations training, you’ve proven that you’ll push yourself to the limit in defending what makes our country great. Now, we’re inviting you to go beyond – to serve our nation’s interests as a Paramilitary Operations Ofcer or Specialized Skills Ofcer with the CIA’s Directorate of Operations. You’ll conduct intelligence activities globally using your signicant combat and leadership experience in Special Operations or Combat Arms (Infantry and Aviation). Every company has a mission statement. Some are just more meaningful than others. Successful candidates for this position may be eligible for a one-time hiring bonus of up to 25% of their base pay. THE WORK OF A NATION. For additional information and to apply, visit: THE CENTER OF INTELLIGENCE. cia.gov/careers Applicants must have US citizenship and the ability to successfully complete medical examinations and security procedures, including a polygraph interview. An equal opportunity employer and a drug-free workforce. CIA120158m_PMOO_Media_Plan_ForeignAffairsMag_7x10.indd 1 9/12/19 4:51 PM UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws ESSAYS War Is Not Over 74 What the Optimists Get Wrong About Conict Tanisha M. Fazal and Paul Poast The Nonintervention Delusion 84 What War Is Good For Richard Fontaine The Unwinnable Trade War 99 Everyone Loses in the U.S.-Chinese Clash—but Especially Americans Weijian Shan The Progressive Case Against Protectionism 109 How Trade and Immigration Help American Workers Kimberly Clausing Nowhere to Go 122 How Governments in the Americas Are Bungling the Migration Crisis Alexander Betts Let Russia Be Russia 134 The Case for a More Pragmatic Approach to Moscow Thomas Graham Beyond Great Forces 148 How Individuals Still Shape History Daniel Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack ON FOREIGNAFFAIRS.COM Pratap Bhanu Mehta Alexander Stille on Kristine Lee on on the gutting of Italy’s precarious Chinese leadership at India’s democracy. triumph over populism. the United Nations. November/December 2019 FA.indb 3 9/20/19 7:02 PM UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws Master of Global Affairs a two-year program offering concentrations in peace studies, sustainable development, and global affairs Washington, DC Office a place to explore new insights and diverse policy perspectives nd.edu/ globalaffairs �UNIVERSITY OF NOTREDAME W UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws REVIEWS & RESPONSES Obama’s Idealists 162 American Power in Theory and Practice Peter Beinart How a Caliphate Ends 170 On the Frontline o the Fight Against ISIS Anne Barnard What Is White America? 177 The Identity Politics o the Majority Nell Irvin Painter The Virtue of Monopoly 184 Why the Stock Market Stopped Working Felix Salmon The New Masters of the Universe 191 Big Tech and the Business o Surveillance Paul Starr Recent Books 198 “Foreign Aairs . will tolerate wide dierences of opinion. Its articles will not represent any consensus of beliefs. What is demanded of them is that they shall be competent and well informed, representing honest opinions seriously held and convincingly expressed. It does not accept responsibility for the views in any articles, signed or unsigned, which appear in its pages. What it does accept is the responsibility for giving them a chance to appear.” Archibald Cary Coolidge, Founding Editor Volume 1, Number 1 • September 1922 November/December 2019 FA.indb 5 9/20/19 7:02 PM UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws November/December 2019 · Volume 98, Number 6 Published by the Council on Foreign Relations Editor, Peter G. 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Box 324, Congers, NY 10920 µ¬¤¢¢¶: Facebook.com/ForeignA airs ¤¢²¡¢£: The contents o Foreign A airs are copyrighted. No part o the magazine may be reproduced, hosted or distributed in any form or by any means without prior written permission from Foreign A airs. To obtain permission, visit ForeignA airs.com/permissions Foreign A airs is a member o the Alliance for Audited Media and the Association o Magazine Media. GST Number 127686483RT Canada Post Customer #4015177 Publication #40035310 FA.indb 6 9/20/19 7:02 PM UPLOADED BY "What's News" vk.com/wsnws TELEGRAM: t.me/whatsnws CONTRIBUTORS Writing in these pages in 2002, MICHAEL DORAN, then a professor at Princeton, was among the rst to argue that the primary motive behind the 9/11 attacks was to fuel conict within the Muslim world. Doran went on to serve in the George W. Bush administration, working in the White House, the State Department, and the Pentagon. In “The Dream Palace o the Americans” (page 21), Doran, now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, argues that only the Trump administration’s return to blunt power politics will yield any progress in the Israeli-Palestinian quagmire. MAHA YAHYA holds the rare distinction o having completed two doctoral dissertations, both on the connections among politics, memory, and urban change. From 2012 to 2018, Yahya led UN eorts to promote development and democ- ratization in 17 Arab countries. She also advised the World Bank and the UN Development Program on social and urban policy across the region. In “The Middle East’s Lost Decades” (page 48), Yahya, now director o the Carnegie Middle East Center, discusses why so many Arab states have stalled politically and economically. The son o Chinese civil servants, WEIJIAN SHAN grew up at the height o the Cultural Revolution and as a teenager spent six years as a forced laborer in the Gobi Desert. After obtaining several degrees in the United States, he taught at the Wharton School. Shan quickly rose to become one o the country’s most successful nanciers, serving as managing director o J.P. Morgan. Today, Shan is chair and CEO o the Hong Kong–based private equity rm PAG.
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