It’s that time of year when the winter Jumps Season is just starting to get into top gear. The air of anticipation is all around, as the connections will have their hopes and dreams confirmed or dashed in the coming months. Plenty of reputations will be put to the test, some horses will confirm these high expectations, whilst others will fail to do so. All roads now lead to Cheltenham and the Festival March. That remains a bit of a shame, as there are some big chases to look forward between now and the end of the year:

% The BetVictor Gold Cup in November at Cheltenham % The at Haydock % The , formerly the Hennessey Gold Cup, at Newbury % The Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown % The King George at Kempton on Boxing Day % The Coral Welsh at Chepstow

Whilst Cheltenham will obviously be at the back of our minds over the winter, let’s not wish the months away and let some historic races pass us by. These are great races to win in their own right and are sure to provide plenty of highlights through to the end of 2018. I think most pundits will be compiling their ten to follow list or Dark Horse Guide for this winter Jumps Season. We’re no different here at Race Advisor. Only we go that extra mile. It’s not just ten horses were giving you but twenty! This guide is a mixture of established stars, who can still offer us some value betting opportunities, and unexposed horses who will hopefully pay their way during the winter months. There are handicappers and horses who should be plying trade in graded company during the season. It’s up to you how use the guide. You can either blindly back them on each of their runs, or you can take a more selective approach, and only back each horse when they get their optimum conditions. Whatever you do, it’s wise to put all twenty horses into a tracker like Eyecatcher Pro so you will be able to keep an eye out for when they are due to run. Let’s not ‘beat about the bush’. We are in the game to make some nice profits from this select group of horses and to enable you to do the same. Just as our Dark Horses Flat Season Guide did for those of you who were following it. This is what we wrote about St Leger winner Kew Gardens back in April, in our Flat Season guide: “… he will no doubt start off in one of the Derby Trials and depending how he fares there, a tilt at Epsom could be on agenda, but even at this early stage of the year he already has the look of a St Leger horse”! And there were plenty more like that in the Flat Season guide.

What do you get? Firstly, all the horses contained in this guide entered our trackers last season, for one reason or another. So, you are getting access to our private list of horses to follow. Each of the horses is profiled in detail, with optimum conditions for each horse, and any useful stats. Unlike other guides, you will find runners from the Mullins, Elliott, Henderson, Tizzard and Nicholls stables. We make no apologies for this, given that these five trainers win more than their fair share of the big races, and we want winners! At the end of this guide you will see our ante-post portfolio which will be useful for those of you who fancy a dabble ante-post at big prices. You will also find a bonus ante-post selection for the King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day.

For ease of use. We have divided our horses by National Hunt race type: 1. The Hurdlers 2. The Graded & Handicap Hurdle Contenders 3. The Chasers 4. The Graded & Handicap Chase Contenders And the final two sections: 5. Dark Horses Ante Post Portfolio 6. King George VI ante Post Selection

1. Hurdlers

Our group of hurdlers is divided into those horses who are set for their first season over smaller obstacles, and the more experienced hurdlers. Let’s begin with the novices.

Novice Hurdler

Sadly, one of the horses that was in the tracker for novice hurdling this winter, Rapid Escape, who was 4th in the Punchestown Festival Bumper, died of colic over the summer. Which means we have added a late substitute. More on that at the end of this section.

1. Portrush Ted – Warren Greatrex

The 6-year-old caused a bit of shock when winning the Grade 2 Aintree Bumper at the Grand National Festival in April, racing in the first-time tongue tie. The son of Shantou was always in a prominent position during the race. Gavin Sheehan took the gelding to the front three from home, and you had to like his attitude in the finish. He found plenty to hold-off his rivals and register a 3¼ length margin of victory. This win came over 2m 1f, but the further he went the stronger he looked. A step-up in trip looked the way to go once going hurdling. Portrush Ted made his debut over obstacles, beating three rivals over 3m at Perth back in August. He ran out a 17-length winner at the finish, but given he was sent-off at long odds, the margin of victory could have been expected. Connections will have been happy with his general performance, although his jumping will need to improve, which I am sure it will. He seems to have improved physically over the summer, which is another positive. He has now won on good, and soft, going. All three of his career wins have come when racing 60+ days since his last run. So, it could be that he’s best caught after a decent break. At this stage of his career I wouldn’t be too dogmatic about his days-since-run record, but it’s worth keeping in mind. If his jumping improves, he could take high order in the staying novice hurdle class. He could even be a 3m Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle horse later in the season.

2. Tornado Flyer –

The 5-year-old made a great NHF debut when winning a Fairyhouse bumper at the start of the year. The son of Flemensfirth was next seen finishing 3rd in the , when he was noted staying-on well to 3rd at the finish. He immediately went into the tracker after Cheltenham. We’re glad we did, as he improved to win a Grade 1 bumper at the Punchestown Festival at a very generous 12/1. He still looked inexperienced in winning this valuable race. There should be plenty of improvement to come from the gelding this winter, and he could be a leading Cheltenham novice hurdle contender. For those of you who like your ante-post bets, Tornado Flyer can be backed at 25/1 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle, and he’s a best priced 25/1 for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle. Those prices could look very big come March.

3. Acey Milan – Anthony Honeyball The 4-year-old made it 3 wins from 4 runs in NHF races, when staying on strongly for his nine rivals at Newbury in February. He was then sent off 9/2 favourite for the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. His backers didn’t collect as he could only finish 4th. He wasn’t disgraced, but just lacked the speed of the three that finished ahead of him. Tornado Flyer was about two lengths in front of him, and we know what he did on his next start. The son of Milan is open to plenty of improvement when going over hurdles, he should stay at least 2m 5f and could get further in time. All his career wins have come on soft or heavy going, so he will probably be at his best with plenty of ease in the going.

4. Pym –

The son of Stowaway could only finish 9th behind Portrush Ted in the Aintree bumper. He ran little better than his final position suggests, as he was slightly hampered on the bottom bend. I am not totally sure he enjoyed the soft ground, and he also looked ‘a work in progress’ at Aintree. I was impressed with the 5-year-old’s first start over timber when winning a 2m novice hurdle at Chepstow. Granted, he was allowed to set his own pace, and he was a bit novicey at one or two hurdles. However, he had to knuckle down to hold off the eventual runner up. A better jump at the last probably won Pym the race. He looks a good hurdling prospect who can only improve with racing. During his ATTHERACES website Stable Tour, the trainer highly regarded the gelding, describing him “as a horse we have been waiting for and he looks an exciting prospect”. He won an Ayr bumper on good to soft, and the going was good at Chepstow. He is untested on really deep winter ground, but connections will probably look to avoid really heavy ground. His owner, Mrs Patricia Pugh, also owns . Maybe she has another Cheltenham winner on her hands in Pym. He’s a best priced 25/1 for the Supreme Novice Hurdle, which could look good come March.

5. Face The Facts – Willie Mullins

This is the late replacement to the list. Trainer Willie Mullins had to go to 100,000 guineas to land this former John Gosden trained horse at last year’s Newmarket Autumn Tattersalls Sales. He didn’t make the racetrack last winter, but hopefully he is over whatever kept him away. The son of Nathanial was 104 rated on the flat when with Gosden, and the highlight of his flat performances was a win in a 2m listed race at Newmarket back in September 2017. It was stamina that won him the race that day. Earlier in the season he had finished five lengths behind stablemate Stradivarius in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. If he takes to hurdles, it seems that the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, or the even the 3m Albert Bartlett, would be races that connections would be looking at, rather than at the Supreme. The trainer has had plenty of recent success with highly rated staying flat horses. He, and owner Graham Wylie, purchased Nichols Canyon from John Gosden, and he later went to Cheltenham Festival glory. Mullins also had Cheltenham success with another good staying handicapper in . But the horse that Face The Facts reminds me of is Thomas Hobson who was also an ex-Gosden trained horse. Like Face The Facts he was off the track for a long period after switching stables, in his case 583 days, before his hurdle debut. He’s the one I am looking forward to the most of this group, and hopefully it won’t be long before we see him back on the racecourse.

That’s the novice hurdles dealt with. Two Mullins and one Henderson horse among the five. We are not just after winners, we are also looking for horses that could win big pots at the Spring festivals.

2. Graded & Handicap Hurdle Contenders

1. Midnight Shadow – Sue Smith

You don’t associate trainer Sue Smith with handicap hurdlers, which may be the reason I think this son of Midnight Legend went a bit under the radar at the end of the season. He was a winner of the Uttoxeter novice hurdle on his seasonal reappearance back in October 2017. Connections showed how highly they regarded the gelding, by stepping him up to a listed novice hurdle at Haydock for his next run. He performed really well to finish a neck second. Thing’s didn’t really go to plan for the 5-year-old on his next four starts, until his final start in the Scottish at Ayr. He was an unfancied 25/1 that day, but everything finally clicked. Jockey Danny Cook always had the horse in a good position and he took up the running after the third last. Coming to the last, you half expected a couple of his challengers to go past him on the run-in. However, he found plenty of pressure to hold onto the win. After the race, Cook told the Racing Post that the horse “was a bit of a hothead but he settles better in his races now. He'll go from strength to strength, he's a big, raw horse”. The handicapper has put him up 6lb for his Ayr win, but I think he can remain competitive off his new mark. No doubt connections will be itching to send him over fences, but I am hoping he will start off over hurdles, at least in the short term, as there is a decent pot in him over the smaller obstacles. A race like the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham could be an ideal race for this improving 5-year-old, who seems fairly ground versatile. On the 17th October Midnight Shadow made his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby. Sent off the 5/4 favourite, he was travelling like the most likely winner coming two out, but a mistake at the second last, and the final hurdle, probably cost him the race. He was beaten just a neck into second. This was an encouraging start to the season for the 5-year-old, especially as the trainer’s few autumn runners had been looking like they needed the run.

2. We Have A Dream – Nicky Henderson

We Have A Dream improved with each of his five starts over hurdles last season according to Racing Post Rating’s (RPR’s). He started off at the end of last year with easy win in a Warwick juvenile hurdle, and a win in the Scottish Trial Juvenile Hurdle at Musselburgh. After that decisive win, he became one of the leading fancies for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Sadly, for connections, he was a sick horse in March and wasn’t able to take his place in the race. He returned to action with a fairly comfortable win in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at the Grand National Festival. On the evidence of this run he would surely have gone close at Cheltenham. He was bought to jump a fence, but after Aintree the trainer said, “We can dream about the Champion Hurdle now”. High praise indeed from this top trainer. Of course, the 4-year-old does have one negative stat to overcome if he’s to win the Champion Hurdle. Only 1 winner from 64 runners and 11 placed has won from that age group since 1997. was the last former juvenile hurdler to win the race back in 2008. Plenty of good ones have tried, including the likes of Binocular (6/4) also trained by Henderson. The trainer is 0 winners from 10 runners, 5 placed, 50% with 5-year-olds in the Champion Hurdle. Mind you only two of them started at single digit odds. If any trainer can train a 5-year-old to Champion Hurdle, it’s Nicky Henderson! We Have A Dream is an improving, uncomplicated horse, who has a decent change of gear. I think he’s the “Dark Horse” of the Champion Hurdle. He’s available to back at 20/1, which makes him look overpriced.

3. The King Of May – Brian Ellison

The 4-year-old was a winning juvenile hurdler in France before joining his present trainer. He made his stable debut in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial, finishing 6¾ lengths behind We Had A Dream. He was well fancied for the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, being sent off just 12/1 for that very competitive race. He was in the lead coming two out, but a small mistake there and his race was soon over, he eventually faded out of it finishing 10th. He ended last season finishing second to a useful Paul Nicholls horse at Market Rasen. He starts his second season hurdling off what looks a decent mark of 125. I am sure he can win races off that sort of mark in the coming months. So far, he has only run on soft ground for his present stable, so maybe he will be seen to better effect when he does get a slightly better surface. His shrewd trainer should be able to place him to win on the northern tracks.

4. Wemyss Point – Philip Kirby

Another horse trained in the North, the 6-year-old finished runner-up on three of his four starts in NHF races. He went novice hurdling last season, winning at Wetherby on his second attempt over the smaller obstacles; the first three pulling nicely clear of the rest. That win came over 2m 3½f and he showed that he can stay further when he came in 3rd in a 2m 5½f, albeit in a race that turned into a bit of a sprint in the straight. This year, he won a 2m 5½f flat race at Pontefract on his flat handicap debut. He ran poorly on his handicap hurdle debut at Aintree back in May, pulling-up well before the finish, and he finished a well-beaten last, back on the level at Pontefract on good to firm in June. He’s not raced since Pontefract, which suggests something was amiss with the gelding in May & June. A real stamina test clearly suits him, as does plenty of ease in the ground. The form of his Wetherby win has been franked by the second and the third, who have both won over hurdles twice since. Staying with handicap hurdles that can be won with this gelding up North this winter.

5. Sussex Ranger – Gary Moore

The 4-year-old jumped really well to win a juvenile hurdle at Fontwell, on first start over hurdles, before winning a Sandown juvenile hurdle on his next start. He was then upped to Grade 1 company at Chepstow on his third start. That day he came up against We Have A Dream, but still managed to get within 1½ lengths of the Henderson horse. Maybe he wasn’t right on the day, or maybe Cheltenham didn’t suit him, but he ended last season last of the seven finishers in the Triumph Hurdle. He didn’t really run well that day and was under pressure a fair way out. To my eye, he starts his second season hurdling off what looks a nice handicap mark of 139; We Have a Dream is now rated 156. Over 2m he needs a good stamina test and looks the sort who will be suited by a strongly run big field handicap. He can probably stay further than 2 miles over hurdles, as he stayed two miles on the flat. Has the look of horse whom the trainer could aim at those valuable winter handicap hurdles, such as the Betfair Handicap Hurdle at Newbury. That’s a race Moore has done well at in the past. Since 2007 he’s had 3 winners from 11 runners, with 4 placed in the race, and two of those winners were 5-year-old’s like Sussex Ranger will be next year. He will surely be placed to win a handicap hurdles this winter and could easily land a big pot.

3. The Chasers

Now we come to the real stars of the jumping scene, the steeplechasers. As with the hurdlers, I have split the chasers into two parts. Starting with the novice chasers.

Novices Chasers

I mentioned in the previous section that there are a couple of horses among the non-novice hurdlers who could easily go over the larger obstacles this winter. Initially I had eight potential novice chasers for the horses to follow, so let’s hope I picked the right five.

1. Cilaos Emery – Willie Mullins

I am not totally sure that the Cilaos Emery will go novice chasing this year, but I’m hoping he does. The 6-year-old finished 5th in the Supreme in 2017, on just his third start as a hurdler. Given his relative inexperience, it was a decent run in the circumstances. He then went on to beat Melon in a Grade 1 by a length, at the Punchestown Festival. He had just the two starts last season and hasn’t been since finishing runner-up to Mick Jazz in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. There’s a chance that he stays over hurdles but let’s hope the trainer decides to put him over a fence this season. His prominent style of running looks perfect for 2m chases. His hurdle form in beating Melon looks good in the light of what Melon achieved over hurdles last season. As he didn’t race in the second half of the last season, he could be a bit under the radar when he starts off this season. I am not sure whether he’s recovered from what kept him off the track though. He’s won on varying types of going, from soft to heavy to good to yielding, although two of his three career wins have come on good to yielding. He can clearly go well fresh and is 2 wins from 3 runs when racing. It is 121+ days since his last start. If he does go chasing, he would be a contender for the Novice Chase!

2. Joke Dancer – Sue Smith The 5-year-old made a good start to his jumping career last season, winning three of his eight starts, and ending the season on an official rating of 129. Arguably his best performance came when winning a Class 2 handicap at Newcastle in February, on heavy ground. The son of Authorised has done all his racing at around 2m and that will surely be his trip when going over fences. Two of his hurdle wins have come at Haydock, so don’t be surprised to see him racing there over the winter. As for the most suitable conditions, he’s 3 wins from 6 runs, strike rate 50% with 4 placed and a place strike rate of 67%, when racing between 16 and 60 days since his last run. At his best when the mud is flying, all three wins have come on soft or heavy ground. He’s yet to race right-handed which could be significant. He enters the new season with plenty of scope for improvement and will surely win races over fences in the North.

3. Coole Hall – Rose Dobbin

Another from a northern stable, that of Rose Dobbin. This trainer is improving her strike rate each season, and also seems to be getting better horses to train. Coole Hall is one of few who could be worth following from this yard over the winter. Whatever he did over hurdles was probably a bonus from this son of Flemensfirth, who was bred for the large obstacles. The trainer’s husband told the Racing Post, “Coole Hall is a lovely horse, a proper old- fashioned type”, after winning a novice hurdle at Newcastle last December. A winning pointer in Ireland, he was beaten just a nose on his hurdle debut at Perth in April of last year. The 6-year-old went one better on his next start 12 months ago, when staying on well to win a Kelso novice over 2m 5f. He won three of his five hurdle starts last season. Disappointing however, when he could only manage 6th of 8, behind Chef Des Obeaux, in a Grade 2 at Haydock in February. That was the end of his season, so he probably wasn’t right that day. He will surely be jumping fences this season and should be able to stay 3m. He goes well on soft ground, and has the look of a chaser who can win races over the larger obstacles; I am sure of that, particularly in the North.

4. Blow By Blow – Gordon Elliott There has to be a Gordon Elliott in this section, and there are plenty to choose from. My choice is Blow By Blow. I really like this one. He’s a big chasing type who will surely win races over fences, and he could be high class novice chaser by the end of the season. The 7-year-old was a very highly rated bumper horse, winning three of his four starts in that race type when trained by Willie Mullins. He ended his 2015-16 season with a good win in the Grade 1 NHF race at the Punchestown Festival. The son of Robin Des Champs was one of the Gigginstown horses moved to Gordon Elliott. He missed the whole of the next season and only returned last November, after a 567-day break. to make his hurdle debut when finishing 3rd at Fairyhouse. He got his head in front on his third start over hurdles when beating four rivals at Navan. He then disappointed on his next two starts, before a return to form when landing a Thurles Grade 3 novice hurdle in February. Following that, he then headed for Cheltenham for the Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4½f. Making his handicap debut off a mark of 144, he went into the lead at the second and soon went clear of his rivals. He was never headed after, although it looked like he might be challenged coming to the last, and he stayed on too strongly for his rivals, to win by five lengths. He looked to have been feeling the effects of a hard season when running flat on his last two starts. Like stablemate Delta Work, he looks like he will be suited by 3m+ novice chases this season. Given he has winning form at the Cheltenham Festival, and he could be the sort to come back again for a race next year. There is plenty of stamina on the dam side, and you could see him running in the 4m National Hunt Chase next March.

5. White Moon – White Moon has the potential to be real dark horse if going novice chasing. A point winner in Ireland, he only made his debut over hurdles 12 months ago. Winning a good ground maiden hurdle at Wincanton. After that impressive win, Joe Tizzard said “White Moon is a lovely big chaser in the making… and looks to have a future”. He then showed he handled soft ground, as well as good, when winning at Exeter under a penalty. He was arguably even more impressive that day. Taking-up the running three out he soon drew clear to win by a long looking 6 lengths. He was then sent off just 7/2 for a Grade 2 at Sandown. He ran well below par and finished last beaten over 50 lengths. That was not his true running and he was found to be lame after the race. The six-year-old is open to plenty of improvement over fences and looks like a staying chaser in the making. He’s another who could be a contender for novice chases at the Cheltenham Festival. Jockey Harry Cobden told Racing UK: “He has got big days ahead of him. I’ve schooled him over fences at Colin’s yard, and he pings round with ease for a novice chaser.” It looks like White Moon is over what kept him off the track and is now on- course and ready for his return to action.

4. Graded & Handicap Chase Contenders

Another section where I had a big shortlist, which had to be cut down to a manageable number.

1. Clan Legend – Nick Alexander

This son of Midnight Legend is a consistent handicap chaser, who wins his share of races. A useful hurdler at Class 4 or lower, he has 5 wins from 12 runs, strike rate 42% with an SP profit of +8.25. He’s a slightly better horse over fences, where he has 3 wins from 8 runs, strike rate 38% with an SP profit of +7.58. Last season he improved his RPR’s both over hurdles and fences. He only ran five times, but he won once over hurdles and once over fences. He was also a good second at Wetherby over the larger obstacles, but then unseated his rider four out at Newcastle when still travelling well. He starts the new season off a career high over both hurdles and fences, and 5lb lower over the smaller obstacles. The key to the 8-year-old is soft or heavy ground. When heavy is in the going description, he’s 6 wins from 14 runs, strike rate 43% with an SP profit of +14.58. He also seems to come to hand in the early part of the season with 5 wins from 7 runs, strike rate 71% and SP profit +18.25. Interestingly, he’s won on seasonal reappearance in the each of the last three years. His form figures on soft to heavy ground during October/November are 111141. He will no doubt be mixing it up North, between hurdles and chases again this season. At modest level he looks like a Saturday horse. His record on the big betting day of the week is 4 wins from 7 runs, strike rate 57% with an SP profit of +14.83. The trainer does well with his runners in the winter - November to March and Saturday handicaps. Since 2014 he’s had 20 winners from 82 runners, strike rate 24% , SP profit +31.08, A/E 1.64, 29 placed and a place strike rate of 35%. With those racing in class 3 to 5 providing all 20 winners from 71 runners, strike rate 38%, SP profit +42.08, A/E 1.71, 28 placed with a place strike rate of 39%. Most importantly, he provides punters with value bets, performing 71% better than market expectations.

2. Dingo Dollar – Alan King

I really like the look of the Alan King trained chaser. Whilst some of the horses on the list can’t really be described as true Dark Horses, I think Dingo Dollar can. The 6-year-old has a very likeable profile. He was 2 wins from 5 runs, strike rate 40%, 3 places with a place strike rate of 60% over hurdles. However, he was always set to make a better chaser than a hurdler. He went chasing last season winning two of five starts over fences. He broke his maiden tag over the larger obstacles, when landing novice handicap chase at Newbury by 15 lengths, with the subsequent winner Joe Farrell back in 3rd. He then made all, to win a three-runner novice chase at Doncaster in the first time cheekpieces. The gelding ended his season with solid second placed effort in a valuable 16 runner novice handicap chase at Ayr in April. Taking up two out, what was noticeable was, how well he jumped. He just failed to give 12lb to a useful Irish handicap chaser. After the race he was reported to have finished slightly lame due to losing a shoe. In the circumstance his effort can be marked-up. He starts his second season chasing off a mark of 148, but he can improve for going over fences and a step-up in trip looks likely to beckon this season. I think he could be even better over 3m 2f+. He has tended to need his first start of the season. Although he’s won on soft ground, I think he’s better horse on good, or good to soft. But I wouldn’t be too dogmatic about this. Indeed, I was chatting to another pundit who thinks he will be better on soft. He has the makings of a good staying handicap chaser this season, but I think he could end-up being better than that. I don’t think I saw a better jumping novice chaser all last season than him. At times he can take lengths out of his rivals. He’s also a big chasing type, with a big stride which devours the ground. I think he’s a potential 156+ horse over fences, which means he’s starting the season on a winnable mark. What will be his early season target? Surely it will be the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury (formerly Hennessey Gold Cup). He already shown he handles the track, and his trainer won this race in 2015 with a similar aggressive jumper in Smad Place. He can be backed at a best priced 25/1 in the ante-post for that race. If he does run in the Ladbroke, whatever his fate, he will race off his present handicap mark.

3. Double W’s – Ruth Jefferson

Last season we lost one of my favourite jump trainers in Malcom Jefferson. His stable was taken over by his daughter Ruth, and she showed she can place her horses to good effect. Double W stays in training with Ruth, which is good news for the stable, as there is a decent pot in him this season. Last season was a big disappointment. He only ran five times and was at least 12lb below his best. The previous season he had won a valuable 2m handicap chase at the Aintree Grand National Festival. After last year’s poor efforts, he can race off 8lb lower than that last winning mark. He’s undoubtedly on a tempting handicap mark, if his trainer can coax him back to something like his best. What are the 8-year-old’s optimum conditions? At around 2m, he’s 5 wins from 10 runs, strike rate 50%, SP profit +13.25, with 8 placed at a place strike rate of 80%. Meanwhile, he’s 0 wins from 15 runs, with 6 placed at a place strike rate of 40% when racing beyond 2m. All five career wins have come on good, or good to soft, so a sound surface is essential. All his wins have also come when officially rated 139 or less. His form figures, when racing at around 2m and rated 139 or less, are 12321111, all with Brian Hughes in the saddle He starts this season off 131, so there is plenty of scope to win a handicap or two this season when he gets his optimum conditions.

4. Terrefort - Nicky Henderson

Nicky Henderson came so close to winning last season’s when Might Bite was runner-up to . Might Bite will no doubt bid to go one better in 2019. However, his trainer might just have another contender in the shape of Terrefort. The 5-year-old had plenty of experience of chasing while training in France. He only joined the Henderson yard at the end of last year. He made his debut for the yard in January, winning a Huntingdon novice limited handicap by 10 lengths. That impressive win marked the horse down for a good future over fences. He was upped in class for his next start in the 2m 4f Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown. He had a real race, and it was his stamina that won him the race by just a neck. He was then sent off the 3/1 favourite for the JLT Novice Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but found the mare Shattered Love, just a shade quicker over the 2m 4f distance. The pair pulled clear of the rest and the form looks solid. That wasn’t the end of his season though. He was stepped-up to 3m 1f for the Grade 1 Mildmay Novices' Chase at the Aintree Grand National Festival, and he saw out the trip in the strongly-run race really well. Terrefort had 33/4 lengths to spare over top novice chasing mare Ms. Parfois, and was a further 9 lengths ahead of the highly regarded Elegant Escape trained by Colin Tizzard. The race has been won in recent years by the likes of , Native River and Might Bite. This win marked him down as a high-class chaser in the making, and he ended last season with a rating of 158. For reference, Might Bite was rated 161 after his win, Native River 155 and Silviniaco Conti 156. He won’t have to improve much this season to be a genuine Cheltenham Gold Cup contender. Since coming over to Britain, all three of his wins, and indeed runs, have been on soft ground. The trainer has indicated that next month’s Intermediate Chase at Sandown, won last year by Might Bite, could be his first start of the season, with tilt at the Ladbrokes Trophy a real possibility despite his big weight.

5. The Dutchman – Colin Tizzard

Finally, last but not least, a horse that could be challenging for Grand National glory come the end of the season. The Dutchman, a 148 rated chaser, caught my eye on a couple of occasions last season. The 8-year-old has been a useful novice chaser for previous trainer Sandy Thomson. He was in the process of running a big race in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby when falling four out. He joined the Tizzard yard last autumn and caught my eye for the first time when finishing runner-up, beaten by 17 lengths, to Sam Spinner at Haydock. His first start over fences was in the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase, again at Haydock, in January. There were excuses for his poor run in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on his next outing. However, at his next run in the Grand National, he didn’t go off unfancied at 20/1. Jockey Harry Cobden always had him in a prominent position, and I thought he was still going really well, when he unseated the jockey at Foinavon second time around. I am not sure he would have beaten eventual winner , but I am sure he would have got into the places. Colin Tizzard has been upbeat about the horse in his Stable Tour on the ‘At The Races’ website. This what he had say about the horse: “He won that big race for us up at Haydock and I am sure we will go back that route. He seems better this time than he was last year and has had a wind operation. He was on the back foot most of the time but still managed to run two or three good races. We have had a lovely prep with him this time and once the heavy ground comes, we will get him out again. He’s a good handicapper!” He's had a wind-operation which is interesting. Whether he ends-up in the National or not, he’s capable of winning another valuable handicap chase this winter, especially when the mud is flying, 2 wins from 6 runs, with 4 placed on heavy ground.

5: Dark Horses Ante Post Portfolio:

Not everyone likes to have an ante-post bet, but for those of you who do, here are some of the ante-post bets in the portfolio. All prices are correct at the time of writing -17/10/18.

Cheltenham - Tuesday 12th March 2019 Supreme Novice Hurdle – Pym – 25/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes Cheltenham - Tuesday 12th March 2019 Champion Hurdle – We Have A Dream – 20/1 @ William Hill & Paddy Power Cheltenham Tuesday 12th March 2019 National Hunt Chase – Blow By Blow – 25/1 – Generally available Cheltenham - Thursday 14th March 2019 Ballymore Novice Hurdle – Tornado Flyer – 25/1 @Bet365 Cheltenham - Friday 15th March 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup – Terrefort – 33/1 @ Sky Bet & Betfred or 25/1 – Generally available

Newbury - Saturday 1st December 2018 Ladbrokes Trophy – Terrefort – 16/1 @ BetVictor or 12/1 @ Bet365 & Sky Bet Ladbrokes Trophy – Dingo Dollar – 25/1 – Generally available Aintree - Saturday 13th April – The Dutchman – 50/1 – Generally available

6: Bonus Ante Post Selection:

I am a big fan of the Paul Nicholls trained . He just failed to make the cut for our “Dark Horses”. The 7-year-old grey has won twice at Cheltenham, but for me at Grade 1 level, he needs a flatter track than he showed on his final start of last season He put a disappointing 4th, in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, behind him, at the Aintree Grand National Festival when winning the 2m 4f Grade 1 . He’s yet to race beyond 2m 5½f, but I think he can get 3m on a flat track like Kempton. He starts the 2018-19 season with 7 wins from 12 runs, strike rate 58% SP profit +17.07 with 8 placed and a place strike rate of 67% over fences. Here are five reasons why I think he will win the King George VI at Kempton on Boxing Day:

1. He’s 2 wins from 2 runs 100% at Kempton 2. He’s 3 wins from 3 runs 100% in December 3. He’s 5 wins from 5 runs 100% + 7.57 when going right handed 4. He’s 2 wins from 3 runs 67% +13.5 in Grade 1 races on flat/galloping tracks with form figures F11 (he fell at the last at Aintree when still in the lead) 5. He’s 7 wins from 10 runs, strike rate 70%, SP profit + 19.07, 8 placed with a place strike rate of 80% with soft in the going description over fences.

He’s by no means a certain runner for the King George, but hopefully trainer Paul Nicholls will roll the dice and let him go 3m at Kempton! Kempton - Wednesday 26th December 2018 King George VI Chase – Politologue - 20/1 @ Paddy Power or 16/1 – Generally available.

The end…. There you have it, 20 horses that caught the eye last season and look set to win plenty of races this winter. I hope you found this National Hunt “Dark Horses” guide an informative read, and that it will lead you to plenty of winners over coming months. Here’s wishing you a profitable winter jumps season!