Presidential Candidates: Trends on Favorability, Awareness

The Harris Poll A Service of Harris Interactive

THE HARRIS POLL #72 FOR RELEASE: SATURDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1999

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: TRENDS ON FAVORABILITY, AWARENESS

· GEORGE W. BUSH STILL HAS HIGHEST POSITIVES BUT HIS NEGATIVES HAS INCREASED

· JOHN McCAIN AND BILL BRADLEY NOW HAVE HIGHEST FAVORABILITY/UNFAVORABILITY RATIOS

· MANY PEOPLE STILL HAVE NO OPINIONS OF GARY BAUER AND ALAN KEYES

· POTENTIAL REFORM PARTY CANDIDATES DONALD TRUMP AND PAT BUCHANAN HAVE HIGHEST NEGATIVES AND (BY WIDE MARGIN) WORST POSITIVE/NEGATIVE RATIOS ______

by Humphrey Taylor and Jonathan Siegel

There has been some substantial movement in public perceptions of the presidential candidates. John McCain, Bill Bradley and Steve Forbes have all made substantial gains since mid-October. George W. Bush, while still a clear leader on “favorability” has slipped. Perceptions of Al Gore seem stuck in a rut. And the public is still overwhelmingly hostile to two of the leading candidates for the Reform Party nomination, Pat Buchanan and Donald Trump. These are the results of a Harris Poll conducted over the Internet as part of the Harris Election 2000 series. It is based on 12,170 interviews completed between November 12 and 19, 1999.

Harris Interactive Inc. 111 Fifth Avenue NYC (212) 539-9600 Here is how the candidates have been doing: · George W. Bush still maintains a big lead with the highest favorability rating (53%) over Al Gore (38%) and Bill Bradley (also 38%), but his favorable to unfavorable ratio has declined from 2.12 to 1.66.

· John McCain has increased his positive rating (since October) from 20% to 35% and now has by far the highest positive/negative ratio (3.18).

· Bill Bradley has also improved. His positive rating is up from 31% to 38% and his positive/negative ratio is up from 1.63 to 1.90, second only to McCain.

· Steve Forbes has also improved sharply. His positive ratings is up from 25% to 34% and his positive/negative ratio has increased from 0.86 to 1.42.

· Donald Trump (61%) and Pat Buchanan (56%) have by far the highest negative ratings. They also have the worst (i.e. lowest) favorable to unfavorable ratings ratios – with Trump at 0.23 and Buchanan at 0.29.

· Almost everyone surveyed has heard of Bush, Gore, Trump, Buchanan and Jesse Ventura. Many people have never heard of Gary Bauer (44%) and Alan Keyes (38%).

Humphrey Taylor is the Chairman of The Harris Poll. Jon Siegel is the Director of the Harris Election 2000 program.

2 TABLE 1

POSITIVE/NEGATIVE RATINGS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

“For each of the following people, please indicate your opinion, in general, of that person.”

Favorable/ Favorable Unfavorable No Never Unfavorable Opinion Opinion Opinion Heard of Ratio Oct Nov Oct Nov Oct Nov Oct Nov Oct Nov

Gary Bauer % 4 9 14 14 29 33 53 44 0.29 0.64 Bill Bradley % 31 38 19 20 37 33 13 8 1.63 1.90 Pat Buchanan % 12 16 53 56 32 25 3 3 0.23 0.29 George W. Bush % 55 53 26 32 19 15 * * 2.12 1.66 Steve Forbes % 25 34 29 24 37 36 9 6 0.86 1.42 Al Gore % 36 38 45 47 19 15 * * 0.80 0.81 Orrin Hatch % 9 17 24 25 35 35 32 23 0.38 0.68 Alan Keyes % 8 16 13 12 32 34 48 38 0.62 1.33 John McCain % 20 35 14 11 30 30 36 24 1.43 3.18 Jesse Ventura % 29 33 44 38 22 25 5 4 .066 0.87 Donald Trump % 14 14 62 61 23 24 1 1 0.23 0.23

3 TABLE 2

HARRIS POLL ONLINE SUMMARY OF CANDIDATES’ POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES

Highest Positives Highest Negatives

Oct Nov Oct Nov % % % % George W. Bush 55 53 Donald Trump 62 61 Al Gore 36 38 Pat Buchanan 53 56 Bill Bradley 31 38 Al Gore 45 47 John McCain 20 35 Jesse Ventura 44 38 Steve Forbes 25 34 George W. Bush 26 32

Best Positive/Negative Ratios Worst Positive/Negative Ratios

Oct Nov Oct Nov % % % % John McCain 1.43 3.18 Donald Trump 0.23 0.23 Bill Bradley 1.63 1.90 Pat Buchanan 0.23 0.29 George W. Bush 2.12 1.66 Gary Bauer 0.29 0.64 Steve Forbes 0.86 1.42 Orrin Hatch 0.38 0.68 Jesse Ventura 0.66 0.87 Al Gore 0.80 0.81

Highest “Never Heard of” Best Known

Oct Nov Oct Nov % % % % Gary Bauer 53 44 George W. Bush 100 100 Alan Keyes 48 38 Al Gore 100 100 John McCain 36 24 Donald Trump 99 99 Orrin Hatch 32 23 Pat Buchanan 97 97 Bill Bradley 13 8 Jesse Ventura 95 96

4 Methodology

This Harris Interactive Election 2000 study was conducted between November 12th and November 19th with a national sample of 12,169 respondents from the Harris Interactive Inc. panel of Internet users. Data were weighted by age, sex, education, income, race/ethnicity, and region as well as propensity to be online, a composite of several factors, in order to generalize the results to the national population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size and after weighting the data, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population of the United States had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include question wording and question order, non- response, and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Furthermore this is not a probability sample.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

2004 Q346

Contact Harris Interactive, 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10003, or by fax (212) 539- 9669, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release.

Harris Interactive (www.harrisinteractive.com) is a leading market research and polling firm, using Internet- based and traditional methodologies to provide its clients with information about the views, experiences and attitudes of people worldwide. Known for its Harris Poll, Harris Interactive has over 40 years experience in providing its clients with market research and polling services, research, multi-client research, service bureau research and customer relationship services. Harris Interactive conducts its Internet research using its Internet database of approximately 4.2 million online panelists and its proprietary technology.