Spotlight on 2014 2 Spotlight on 2014

spotlight on 2014 2 Spotlight on 2014

table of contents

introduction 3 impact in 2014 36

harnessing the power of ICT 4 events in 2014 38

safeguarding society 12 council of advisors 40

building healthier our staff 42 communities 20 clients and collaborators 44 innovating for efficiency 28 references 46 3

introduction

Today’s policy world is a complex smarter across more applications, and interconnected place. Changes to build public trust in security unfolding in one area can impact while safeguarding society’s on another. For example, increasing freedoms, to improve health and the convenience of internet- mental well-being for individuals connected devices can pose and communities, and to find greater risks to our privacy and innovative and efficient spending security. solutions while not diminishing outcomes for people. While policymaking can transform the lives and environments of The interconnectedness of individuals, communities and our world will intensify, so that societies for good or ill, it is transformation, as a theme in an important but challenging policymaking, will become more business. Policy consequences important. For RAND Europe’s part, can take unexpected turns. we are proud of our achievements in 2014 but are not complacent. This is where RAND Europe aims to We look forward to new policy support policymaking. We provide transformations brought about the evidence, expertise and robust by revealing new knowledge, analysis to help inform policies to reducing the uncertainty of our change people’s lives for the better. complex world, challenging In this year’s Spotlight we highlight conventional wisdom and making our contributions to achieve this sense out of the big picture of goal. We focus on some of the interconnected policymaking. big issues that our clients faced in 2014 and describe research findings that have helped them transform thinking and, in many cases, policy and practice. You will read about efforts to harness Hans Pung, President technology to make it work [email protected] harnessing the power of ICT

Technology innovation has transformed our world in ways that would make past generations gasp. But even as we solve old challenges, we encounter new ones. In 2014, RAND Europe explored the still- unrealised power of information technology to overcome current constraints and catalyse opportunities. Whether tackling issues such as overcrowding, pollution or ill-health, or facilitating new collaborations and discoveries, intelligent information and communication technology (ICT) policies can improve life for individuals, communities and nations.

6 Spotlight on 2014 smartest cities in Europe

6 smart characteristics 5 smart characteristics 4 smart characteristics living and working smarter 3 smart characteristics

In 2010 the number of people best practices. As a first step, we worldwide who live in cities developed a definition of a Smart overtook the number who do not, City as one ‘seeking to address and the urban population is still public issues via ICT-based growing. While cities offer unique solutions on the basis of a multi- opportunities, they also face rising stakeholder, municipally-based challenges from poverty, inequality, partnership’. We specified that a unemployment and energy Smart City initiative should include management. Now city leaders are at least one of six characteristics: exploring ways to harness ICT to Smart Governance, Smart Economy, create ‘Smart Cities’ that are better Smart Mobility, Smart Environment, places to live and work. Smart People and Smart Living. The European Parliament asked Based on this definition, half of RAND Europe (with the Danish Europe’s cities with populations Technological Institute, TNO and above 100,000 could be identified WIK) to take stock of Smart Cities as Smart, with Nordic Member across European Member States States, Italy, Austria, Estonia and to identify success factors and Slovenia having the highest proportion. The most common focus is Smart Environment (33 per cent), followed by Smart Mobility. what makes a city Smart? However, despite the race to “There is a risk that future-proof urban environments, fewer than half of the identified some cities will be Governance Mobility People initiatives are being implemented or reinventing the wheel services and interactions link all sustainable, integrated e-skilled, innovative, piloted; most are still at the planning if we cannot compare types of organisations via ICT transport and logistics data users phase. The researchers found that common metrics were urgently the achievements of m needed to benchmark progress and Smart initiatives” 60 evaluate achievements, otherwise Economy Environment Living Catriona Manville, more urban residents projects cannot be scaled up or ICT-enabled physical and virtual renewable energy, pollution ICT-enabled lifestyles, per year worldwide learning shared. Senior Analyst ﬂows of goods, services and control, utility management behaviour and consumption knowledge 7 smartest cities in Europe

6 smart characteristics 5 smart characteristics 4 smart characteristics 3 smart characteristics

what makes a city Smart?

Governance Mobility People services and interactions link all sustainable, integrated e-skilled, innovative, types of organisations via ICT transport and logistics data users

Economy Environment Living ICT-enabled physical and virtual renewable energy, pollution ICT-enabled lifestyles, ﬂows of goods, services and control, utility management behaviour and consumption knowledge 8 Spotlight on 2014

(not so) big data

Healthcare is a vast landscape for pharmaceuticals company Pfizer. data generation and analysis. But We found the many barriers to the potential for using large-scale exploiting it included a lack of ‘real-world’ health data to help common data quality standards, no assess treatments and improve standards for collaboration between services is currently limited by our data producers, owners and users, inability to pool or mine it effectively. and data protection legislation. We Real-world data comes from any recommended that developing source aside from randomised common standards is the first controlled trials, such as hospital step towards reaping the value of statistics, insurance data, social research based on real-world data. media, digital marketing data, patient monitors or population health data. RAND Europe examined forms and uses of real-world data in the European healthcare sector for

“Real-world data has significant potential to improve our current processes for drug discovery, and to help assess the effectiveness of medical treatments” Celine Miani, Analyst 9

military intelligence

New technologies are essential to make a unique contribution. Rigid the future of the armed forces, but internal processes are a barrier to most research and development collaboration, for example with investment now occurs in the innovative small- and medium- civilian sector rather than the sized enterprises in areas such as military. The UK Ministry of Defence 3D printing or virtual environments. (MOD) asked RAND Europe to help it The MOD should also move from a legacy assess wider investment in relevant focus on developing things to one technologies. The team suggested on outcomes, and look for ways to systems that the MOD should invest more make useful connections across strategically in areas where it can disciplines.

Sharing and using information 84,400 across borders is essential for EU 73,030 institutions performing functions to support border management, 60,040 intelligence and criminal 43,600 justice. But dealing securely with personally identifiable 30,980 information is a major challenge. A RAND Europe study has found 16,490 17,270 9,170 10,350 that the institutions’ internal 2,415 policies and rules for information security and data protection, coupled with ageing IT systems, are not keeping pace with those in the commercial sector. The 3D printing simulation electro-optical hybrid unmanned institutions therefore cannot techniques systems energy systems fully exploit ICT developments how much research is for defence? such as cloud computing and the rise of personal devices. total publications defence publications 10 Spotlight on 2014

saturation saturation level car travel China predicted km per capita Brazil 7,800km actual 11,300km

Russia 10,200km 15,000 India 7,000km United States 16,300km 10,000

Australia 5,000 Germany 10,800km Japan 9,700km 6,400km

automobility score using automobility scores to predict long-term travel saturation levels driving lessons

Users who lag behind the innovation understand factors that determine by policy measures, especially curve can learn valuable lessons car travel levels in four developed where infrastructure and spatial from early adopters. Adoption of the countries and to quantify their patterns are still being developed. motor car, a century-old technology, impact on future BRIC driving levels. The demand for driving can be is increasing in developing Besides income per capita, we dampened. countries, including the fast-growing found nine key factors, including BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, quality of infrastructure, fuel price, India and China) that house over 40 policy and regulation, available “Income is not per cent of the world’s population. alternatives, a domestic car industry necessarily destiny With pollution, urban sprawl, traffic and spatial dispersion. Using these when it comes to jams and road fatalities part of this factors, the level of ‘automobility’ for emerging picture, policymakers can each country was defined, and used increasing car demand take lessons from the developed to project saturation car travel levels – policy matters” world to help steer travel demand. in the BRICs. We conclude that while RAND Europe worked with the rising incomes tend to encourage Charlene Rohr, Senior Institute for Mobility Research to car use, this can be countered Research Leader 11 sitting comfortably?

Many social media users know devices. RAND Europe examined that platforms for sharing and the issues for Ofcom and found broadcasting text and images that internet connectivity and also gather user profile data on a device convergence are changing massive scale. But how many of broadcasting distribution channels us realise that the same is true of and value chains. New, potentially smart TVs and games consoles? complex risks include internet Now that our ‘lean back’ living fraud (such as identity theft), room devices are also internet- cybercrime and bullying, and connected, we need to sit up and abuse of personal data. It is often take notice of potential privacy unclear from device information and security threats. Relaxing whether service providers are watching TV, our guard is down collecting user data and why, and compared with searching internet what consumers can do if they sites through ‘lean forward’ object. Policymakers must monitor this fast-moving environment, and both industry and consumers need to adopt better practices to protect security and privacy. safeguarding society

Threats to community safety concern us all, but big decisions on security issues typically fall to a few. They face a dual challenge: how to keep society safe whilst also respecting and protecting social values. What freedoms will people surrender in return for greater security? How can the appeal of violent extremist groups be reduced? What constitutes an ethical decision? RAND Europe has conducted multiple projects to help policymakers understand perceptions, set priorities and build public trust. 14 Spotlight on 2014

CCTV preferences in the European Union over 12,000 people responded across 27 EU Member States

1st place advanced CCTV that can recognise faces

2nd place advanced CCTV that can detect abandoned bags

advanced CCTV that can 3rd place recognise suspicious movements of people

standard CCTV that 4th place works like a television 15

CCTV preferences in the European Union over 12,000 people responded privacy vs security? across 27 EU Member States Threats to our safety range from understand views in three real-life accountability, such as a court local street crime to international scenarios: travelling by train or warrant. When selecting internet 1st place advanced CCTV that terrorism and cybercrime to metro, choosing an internet service service providers, respondents can recognise faces pandemic disease. In confronting provider, and storing personal would pay more for privacy- such threats, policymakers must health data. RAND Europe initiated enhancing tools to protect their weigh up individual rights against work in this area with an internally usage data. the collective needs of society. funded study in 2008, which Socio-economic factors, such as Decisions often involve a trade- triggered interest across Europe. advanced CCTV that can age, also play a role. Older people 2nd place off between privacy and security, The PACT study has since provided detect abandoned bags are generally less averse to CCTV issues that are inherently difficult new insights on this important issue. cameras or internet surveillance. to measure and compare. Are We found views were broadly Younger people are more relaxed people willing to accept intrusions consistent across Europe, but about their internet and health data, advanced CCTV that can into their private lives, such as varied significantly by context. For but more averse to physical security data-sharing or high-resolution 3rd place recognise suspicious example, most people support checks. surveillance cameras, in return for movements of people CCTV cameras at train and metro enhanced communal security? stations and are happy for these to In 2014, RAND Europe completed have advanced face-recognition the first pan-European survey features. However, they were very standard CCTV that “Security and privacy 4th place to explore citizens’ views on unhappy about sharing CCTV works like a television these issues for the European footage outside their home country. do not need to be Commission’s project, PACT (Public By contrast, people support in tension. People Perception of Security and Privacy: EU-wide access to health device across Europe show a Assessing Knowledge, Collecting data, though they oppose sharing Evidence, Translating Research into beyond medical practitioners. nuanced understanding Action). Over 13,500 people were of privacy” On the internet, people oppose interviewed and a further 12,800 police monitoring of their surveyed online. We used stated- Sunil Patil, activities unless there is suitable preference choice experiments to Senior Analyst 16 Spotlight on 2014

police ambassadors

Highly visible mounted police Public engage more than on neighbourhood patrol have the effect of boosting levels of public trust and confidence in the police. This finding comes from the first study of the benefits and effectiveness of mounted units, conducted by RAND Europe and the University of Oxford. Mounted police have been part of British policing for nearly two centuries, x but evidence of their impact had not 6 more with mounted been systematically recorded. The police than with foot patrols Association of Chief Police Officers commissioned the research to better understand the value of mounted police and inform police managers facing tough resourcing decisions. The researchers studied the effects of mounted units in different scenarios: on neighbourhood patrols, at football matches, in public “We have shown for demonstrations and the first time how the at a music festival. They found that the presence value of mounted units of mounted units facilitated can be systematically positive engagements with measured and the public in neighbourhood settings, with the horse-and- demonstrated” rider combination acting as Chris Giacomantonio, an ice-breaker for greater interaction. Analyst 17

building bridges

Diaspora communities – those for proactive communication In comparison with their migrants and their descendants from country partners. There was receiving countries, diaspora who maintain strong ties with a positive correlation between groups have: their countries of origin – can form diaspora groups’ levels of a bridge between sending and engagement with partners and their receiving countries. Diasporas are satisfaction with that engagement. increasingly seen as important Those seeking to engage with partners by governments, to help individual diaspora groups need to them strengthen relationships with tailor their approaches to specific the homelands of diaspora residents contexts: a group will have different Higher rates of high and implement strategies to improve characteristics in each country educational attainment political, security and economic setting. outcomes. Since both Europe and Comparing patterns of education the US wish to improve engagement and employment we also found with diaspora groups, the EU asked that, on the whole, diaspora groups RAND Europe and the Institute for achieve better outcomes on a Higher share of working- the Study of Labor (IZA) to map range of socio-economic indicators age population different groups and recommend than their kin at home. Within their engagement strategies. receiving countries, the picture is We mapped diasporas from 24 more complex, however. Diaspora sending countries in Asia, the groups have a higher share Middle East, North Africa and Sub- of working-age members and Saharan Africa now living in the 28 higher rates of high educational Lower rates of EU Member States and the US. Our attainment than the populations of labour force participation survey of diaspora organisations these countries, but lag behind on found they had a strong desire employment outcomes. 18 Spotlight on 2014

radical indicators

DEMOGRAPHIC POLITICAL

ECONOMIC SOCIAL TIO LISA N FAC ICA TO AD RS R

CULTURAL PSYCHOLOGICAL

Understanding radicalisation, data to test hypotheses about the Offering alternatives (such and how to counter it, are radicalisation process and potential as education and access to hot topics for researchers interventions. The consortium of 11 internships) and helping subjects and practitioners worldwide. partners, including RAND Europe, develop personal skills (such as Meanwhile, governments are has developed an innovative non- conflict management) helped devoting huge resources to tackle linear model based on typologies reduce their susceptibility to being the threats posed by groups and of radical groups, cultural aspects radicalised. Where radicalisation individuals with extreme views and observable indicators of is at a more advanced stage, who are prepared to commit radicalisation. The researchers interventions should target violent acts in support of their found that successful interventions individuals rather than groups, cause. The EU project, SAFIRE to prevent violent radicalisation ideally in close cooperation with (Scientific Approach to Finding addressed psychological factors people they see as credible, such Indicators for, and Responses to, such as self-esteem, negative as former members of extremist Radicalisation), collected new emotions and feelings of injustice. groups. 19 ethical minefield

Counter-terrorism (CT) methods to help support ethical professionals must often take decisionmaking. The researchers “Healthcare professionals quick decisions that affect privacy, identified six groups of methods, liberty, security and broader which included mitigation address ethical problems human rights – yet they must also to prevent ethical problems with tools that can ensure these have a sound ethical arising, leading by example, be adapted for use in basis. For example, how should and independent checking and CT professionals balance a duty of oversight. All methods need to take counter-terrorism” transparency with use of sensitive account of four features common Stijn Hoorens, material? How can they ensure to CT work: the desire to eliminate the legitimacy of interventions risk, the need to collaborate Head of Brussels office in life-or-death situations? At the across organisations and nations, request of the Dutch Ministry of and requirements for both Security and Justice, and drawing time-sensitivity and on the experience of other public secrecy. sectors – healthcare, social work, policing and the military – in the Netherlands, UK and France, RAND Europe researchers assembled an inventory of

building healthier communities

The wider effects of mental or physical ill-health extend far beyond the individual, to families, employers, the economy and society as a whole. RAND Europe’s work in health and healthcare demonstrates the value of sharing health evidence widely. From engaging employers and other agencies in employee health to clarifying the full range of clinical research impacts, a broader understanding of issues and benefits can help build a culture of shared responsibility for health improvement. 22 Spotlight on 2014

working at well-being

Mental ill-health is an increasingly health and well-being for those recognised problem worldwide, affected by anxiety and depression, with immense social and economic while reducing the high cost impacts. In the UK alone, 6.1 of services. The research team million working-age people (18 reviewed existing service provision per cent) have a common mental and identified two factors for health disorder at any given time, success. First, early access to and the cost of sickness absence, services is crucial to prevent people benefits and productivity loss from falling out of work and to help is estimated at £70–100 billion. bring them back into work. Second, “Improving the More than 40 per cent of sickness health and employment services employment benefit claimants have a mental must be better integrated. The outcomes of those or behavioural disorder as their researchers recommended four primary health condition. Yet the new interventions (see right), three with common mental numbers of working-age people of which are now being piloted in health problems is a seeking treatment and receiving a selected areas. Most would lead complex issue and correct diagnosis are low. The UK to cost savings. The aim is that the Department for Work and Pensions pilots will provide a business case there is no ‘one size fits and England’s Department of to Clinical Commissioning Groups all’ solution” Health asked RAND Europe to and Jobcentre Plus offices and research new approaches to demonstrate what improvements Joanna Hofman, improve employment outcomes, are possible. Senior Analyst 23 mental health affects many people

working-age seek receive people have a help & 24% treatment 6.1 m mental health problem 39%

out-of-work people (unemployed and long-term 1.8 m sick and disabled) have mental health problems

RAND Europe recommended four interventions for piloting:

embed vocational support into primary care settings

enhance support to those out of work, using group work to build resilience against setbacks faced when job-seeking

provide access to online mental health and work assessments and support – for example building on computerised cognitive behavioural therapy interventions (not yet implemented)

offer telephone assessments and support to people with common mental health problems who are out of work 24 Spotlight on 2014

unhealthy habits

Britain’s Healthiest Company The results do not bode well for competition – the largest survey the employees’ health. Nearly two- of workplace wellness in the UK, thirds of respondents reported at “The office is a great place with more than 80 companies and least two bad lifestyle habits that 25,000 employees in 2014 – is in its put them at serious risk of future to help people improve their second year. Entrants were surveyed chronic conditions, such as heart health through practical on a range of workforce lifestyle, disease, diabetes or high blood methods and inspiring environmental and clinical risk pressure. One in five employees factors, and on workplace policies, already suffers from at least one of leadership” practices and facilities that affect these conditions. Yet employees Professor Dame Carol Black, employee health. RAND Europe, appear overly optimistic about together with the University of their health. Over half of those Chair of the academic Cambridge, designed and ran the employees with at least three advisory group for Britain’s surveys, and provided customised lifestyle risk factors believe they Healthiest Company reports to employers. are in ‘good’ or ‘very good’ health, making them less likely to be motivated to change bad habits. The competition organisers VitalityHealth, a private health insurer, hope that employers can actively support their workforce to adopt healthier behaviours.

62% of respondents reported at least two bad lifestyle habits 25

creating a health culture Cultural a culture for health Social social determinants of health Clinical lifestyle-related diseases Biomedical antibiotics, early vaccines Structural clean water, sewers, drainage

Viewing the patterns of health and Lancet with the Chief Medical and attendant actions. Across disease across a whole population Officer for England, Professor Dame society, individuals, public and can generate radical new insights Sally Davies, who propose that a private institutions and government into causes and cures that could fifth wave of health improvement is will need to work together towards not be gleaned from individual now needed to tackle the globally health as a common good. The patients. Over the past 200 years, rising burden of chronic diseases mechanisms that will enable this the population-based science of such as diabetes, cancer and heart cross-societal approach include public health has been associated disease. This next wave of public maximising the perceived value of with four successive ‘waves’ of health improvement requires a health and incentives for healthy health improvement described as culture for health, where healthy behaviour, promoting healthy structural, biomedical, clinical and, behaviours are viewed as the norm choices as default choices, and most recently, social. So say RAND and institutional, social and physical minimising factors that promote Europe researchers, writing in The environments support this mindset unhealthy behaviour. 26 Spotlight on 2014

fighting cancer

What do taxpayers and charities a monetary value. After subtracting who fund cancer research get the total public and charitable for their money? A RAND Europe expenditure on cancer-related assessment (with collaborators) of research in the UK between 1970 the economic gains from cancer and 2009, allowing for the time lag research suggests that the £15bn between investment in research spent over the past 40 years has and impact for patients, the net gain been well invested. Using a method was equivalent to an annual return we previously devised and applied of 10 per cent. Adding the estimated to cardiovascular and mental health ‘spillover’ effect to the wider research, we analysed the health economy increases this to 40 per benefits of cancer interventions (e.g. cent, slightly ahead of cardiovascular screening and treatments) between (39 per cent) and mental health (37 1991 and 2010 and assigned them per cent) research.

Every £1 spent on cancer research gives a perpetual annual return of 40p 27 mapping africa’s research landscape

Low- and middle-income countries publications as any other country. and funding allocated, followed bear the highest burden of poverty- The next most studied countries by malaria, TB and neglected related and neglected infectious were Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania infectious diseases. Despite this, diseases (PRNIDs) worldwide, yet and Malawi. This trend was also the majority of interviewees stated these regions sorely lack capacity observed in the literature relating to that lack of funding is the main in health research systems. A research funding. barrier to developing clinical recent study by RAND Europe with research capacity in Africa, closely Overall, global funding for the Baird’s CMC, for the European and followed by low understanding three main poverty-related Developing Countries Clinical Trial among policymakers of the value of diseases – HIV/AIDS, malaria and Partnership, mapped the landscape research. A more holistic approach tuberculosis (TB) – has increased of PRNID research funding across is needed that considers the wider in the past decade. Our analysis health and research systems sub-Saharan Africa. A literature found a high relative coverage of in these countries, not just the review and interviews with over 300 HIV/AIDS in research conducted processes of clinical research. policymakers, non-governmental organisations and researchers in 46 countries found significant regional differences in the volume of clinical research and development. South Africa was twice as likely to be the country of focus in health research

“Over 50 per cent of level of health respondents in over 60 research capacity per cent of countries said that lack of policymaker state of the art understanding was established an important barrier existing research infrastructure to developing clinical but could beneﬁt from research” capacity strengthening basic infrastructure and capacity Gavin Cochrane, development is needed Analyst not applicable/data unavailable innovating for efficiency

Across the EU, public spending accounts for almost half (49 per cent) of GDP each year, aver- aging €12,617 per person in 2013. RAND Europe’s growing body of work in this area analyses the impact of approaches that aim to encourage innovation and collaboration, reduce losses and improve outcomes for society. Whether fully funded by government, or co-funded by industry or the third sector, the onus is on policymakers to reduce total spending, increase efficiency and value for money and limit financial risk.

30 Spotlight on 2014

the Peterborough Social Impact Bond to reduce reoffending

if reoffending is savings from successful reduced, savings interventions are paid may be created for back to private investors the MOJ Ministry of Justice private investors fund interventions

impact of interventions on reoffending is measured

some commit some reoffend prison offenders released no further offences into community

challenges in rolling out SIBs

Outcomes must be measurable and clearly Investors making decisions about which All parties involved may need encourage- deﬁned. A broad enough range of data should be interventions to support may need to apply ment to share the data generated about collected to allow detection of wider (perhaps new skills to critically appraise evidence SIB-funded interventions. This will help unintended) beneﬁts or negative outcomes. regarding the effectiveness of interventions. develop the evidence base on what works to address social problems. 31

social investment

Stretched government finances reduce reoffending by those have driven the development of serving short custodial sentences, new ways to fund a range of public by offering a variety of support services. Initiatives using ‘payment services before and after release, by results’ mechanisms, in which around employment, housing and government only pays for services well-being. RAND Europe’s ongoing that prove to be effective, include research is based on interviews interventions to improve outcomes with a wide range of stakeholders for children in care and to tackle drug involved in the pilot, conducted misuse. RAND Europe has a portfolio over four years. of research on the use of payment Factors felt to contribute to by results in the UK, including an successful implementation of the evaluation of the first Social Impact pilot included: Bond (SIB), introduced at HM Prison Peterborough. 1. Using the flexibility of SIB funding to respond swiftly to service users’ Under a SIB, private investors fund “Through our needs, through one-off purchasing, interventions to address specific commissioning and co-funding. evaluation of the challenges such as recidivism or homelessness. If – and only if – the 2. Investing time in building world’s first Social programme succeeds at improving partnerships with local agencies Impact Bond we outcomes and reducing demand and service providers, especially the can share important prison. for public services, the government learning points for (or other party such as a local 3. Providing payment up-front to authority) pays some of the savings voluntary, community and private- others” back to investors as a return on their sector providers who work with investment. service users on release. This Emma Disley, means that SIB investors bear the Associate Research The Peterborough SIB aims to financial risk of failure, not providers. Group Director 32 Spotlight on 2014

open discovery

New funding and organisational domains of the human genome, with the usual peer review process, models for drug discovery working out the structures of allowing it to move quickly into new may be helping to address the proteins that could be targets for areas of research. The evaluation current ‘productivity crisis’ in new drugs. The consortium makes by RAND Europe and Canada’s the pharmaceutical sector. The all its research outputs freely Institute on Governance found that Structural Genomics Consortium available and has established SCG research is seen as reliable (SGC) is an open-access, public– an open collaborative network and highly reproducible. This is private partnership of 20 research of scientists worldwide. Funders valued by investors as new projects groups affiliated with the University – including the Wellcome can be based on the findings with of Oxford and the University of Trust, several Canadian public confidence. The SGC’s role in ‘de- Toronto. The SGC mission is to sector investors, and nine large risking’ novel areas of science, and catalyse research in less-studied pharmaceutical companies – jointly enabling rapid, efficient research choose the research topics. processes was often cited as an The SGC’s funding model avoids incentive for investment. Overall, the delays and perceived this innovative open-access model conservatism associated could play a significant role in accelerating drug discovery.

“The extensive collaborations between academia and industry were the most frequently mentioned strength of the Structural Genomics Consortium” Molly Morgan Jones, Associate Research Group Director 33

the costs of complexity

Fraud and error in the social A highly complex benefit system benefits in UK, 2013 security system can mean appears to increase both fraud and substantial financial loss to the error: certain means-tested benefits taxpayer, accounting for 2 to 5 or those with complex eligibility £1.2bn per cent of social security costs requirements are more prone to overpayment in countries such as Australia, problems. Simplifying the benefit due to fraud Ireland, the Netherlands, New system and administration processes Zealand, Sweden, the UK and the is likely to have the biggest impact US. With budgets under pressure in reducing benefit fraud and error, in many countries, the World though a low level of fraud and error £1.6bn Bank asked RAND Europe for is likely to remain, beyond which it underpayment recommendations. is difficult and not cost-effective to due to error make further reductions. Our researchers started by pinning claimant down definitions for terms that were being used inconsistently. Fraud occurs when claimants deliberately provide false information, or withhold relevant FRAUD ERROR information, to receive payments. But other reasons for over- or underpayment of social security benefits include official corruption intentional unintentional and unintentional error by claimants or officials. Few countries measure fraud systematically. CORRUPTION ERROR However, governments that do measure, such as the UK, find that error within the benefits system can be a more substantial economic problem than fraud. state/service provider 34 Spotlight on 2014

hospital care

The hospital landscape in Europe improve quality, as and elsewhere is diverse and increased size enables changing, reflecting different larger outlays and spreads historical developments, cultures investment risk. A high volume of and political contexts. A RAND services, such as certain surgical Europe study commissioned procedures, is also associated with by the Department of Health better care quality. But bigger may in England examined different not always be better: closing local of stay included: multidisciplinary hospital ‘models’ in four other services risks reducing access. team working, for example in stroke countries. We found a trend In a separate study, RAND Europe care; improved discharge planning; towards privatisation and hospital examined strategies to reduce early-supported discharge groups in France, Germany and the length of stay in hospital, looking programmes; and care pathways. United States, with private hospitals at their impact on cost, care quality Nursing-led inpatient units were helping to deliver publicly funded and patient experience. Those linked to improved outcomes, but healthcare. The evidence reviewed showing potential to reduce length appeared, if anything, to increase suggests that consolidation can length of stay. 35

new horizons

A European Union list of global skillset needed for international issues identifies seven ‘grand collaboration. The Commission challenges’ (see below) which are should also agree a strategic in line for €30bn of the ’Horizon research agenda with each partner 2020’ research funding round. country. Some nations set other The European Commission asked priorities which might also be RAND Europe to assess the role considered, for example building the EU should play in enabling education and skills (India), or international research collaboration space exploration (the US). And, on these topics. We recommended since there is little evidence on that Horizon 2020 should be open what has worked best in the EU’s to research collaborations with research collaborations to date, bn emerging economies which might an evaluation of this work and its 30 generate exciting new ideas, and impacts will be essential to direct €for grand challenge research encouraged the Commission to new funding most effectively. collaborations over 6 years support the broad, multidisciplinary

‘grand challenge’ research topics

health & well-being food security transport energy climate action society security 36 Spotlight on 2014

impact in 2014

RAND Europe’s impact is realised in many different contexts, from changing policy and practice and getting media attention to providing thought leadership and reaching decisionmakers. Here are some ways in which our work created impact in 2014:

CHANGING POLICY AND PRACTICE SHARING EXPERTISE

The UK Department for Culture, Media & Sport used our findings on At Committees of the European people’s willingness to pay for a mobile phone signal in their impact Parliament, Cecile Hoareau assessment, Tackling Partial Not-Spots in Mobile Phone Coverage. McGrath gave evidence on work England’s Department for Health and the UK Department of Work and comparing higher education Pensions took up our recommendations by piloting three new approaches entrance qualifications across to helping people with common mental health problems back into work Europe, while Marco Hafner (see p. 22). RAND Europe’s assessment of the impact of providing energy presented findings from the report efficiency ratings in online sales sites for electrical goods contributed The Cost of Non-Europe in the to the framing of ten new EU ‘delegated regulations’ in 2014. The new Single Market: Free movement of legislation, to mandate display of efficiency ratings online in the familiar goods. Eleanor Winpenny testified A–G colour bar format, is binding and directly applicable in all Member before a UK House of Lords Sub- States. Our recommendations in Making and Breaking Barriers (see p.16) Committee discussing the EU’s have led to standard operating procedures for how mounted police work. alcohol strategy. 37

LEADING THOUGHT APPEARING IN THE MEDIA

RAND Europe’s ongoing evaluation RAND Europe research hit media outlets across the world in 2014. of the world’s first Social Impact Estimating the economic costs of antimicrobial resistance featured in Bond (SIB) (see p. 30) has led to multiple top broadcast and print outlets across Europe, Asia, Russia and involvement in two further projects, the United States. The mounted police report (see p. 16) was picked up as both for England’s Department of far afield as the NigerianGuardian and Horsetalk online in New Zealand, as Health. For the pilot of a payment- well as on UK television and radio. Christian van Stolk described workforce by-results mechanism to support health in South Africa on CNBC, while Charlene Rohr discussed traffic interventions in drug and alcohol congestion on BBC Two’s Daily Politics news show. BBC Radio 4’s Today addiction, we are evaluating the referred to our study on the role of the internet in radicalisation. Our work processes at eight local sites; for the on amenable mortality was cited in The New York Times; a RAND Europe health and social care ‘trailblazer’ opinion piece on workforce gender equality appeared in the European SIBs in 10 sites, we are evaluating Voice and another on academic research impact ran in the Guardian feasibility, benefits and costs. Higher Education Network online. 38 Spotlight on 2014

events in 2014

Events held in 2014 provided opportunities to inform various audiences of our own thinking and research findings as well as chances to hear from thought leaders and other experts. Here’s a selection:

THE SUMMER RECEPTION UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE FESTIVALS

Cambridge-based entrepreneur Dr Professor Dame Sally Davies, Chief Medical Officer for England, informed Hermann Hauser CBE was guest a 400-strong public audience at our Science Festival event with her speaker at our annual reception, lecture entitled The drugs don’t work: the global threat of antimicrobial co-hosted by Professor Frank Kelly resistance. Recent RAND Europe research (Estimating the economic costs CBE, Master of Christ’s College, of antimicrobial resistance) supports her alarming thesis: drug-resistant Cambridge, and a member infections will cost millions of lives by 2050, with a knock-on loss of up of RAND Europe’s Council of to $124 trillion in GDP, unless action is taken. Our Festival of Ideas panel Advisors. Dr Hauser touched on discussed The Cost of Non-Europe, covering the benefits that Europe wide-ranging future technology stands to gain from closer integration. RAND Europe researcher Marco trends, from our dependence on Hafner presented findings from a study on the economic benefits of free machine learning to the increasing movement of goods. Other panellists addressed a closer Europe through use of diagnostics and computer arts and culture and security and political ties. All agreed that evidence and science in healthcare. objectivity is important to inform debate on these highly charged issues. 39

BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES CAMBRIDGE AHEAD CCHSR ANNUAL LECTURE

During a signing ceremony, Hans We conducted a first-of-its-kind Baroness Julia Neuberger, Pung, President of RAND Europe, Quality of Life survey for Cambridge influential faith and thought leader, and Prof Stefan Vodenicharov, Ahead (CA), a group dedicated addressed an audience of 100 for President of the Bulgarian Academy to long-term growth for the city the Cambridge Centre for Health of Sciences (BAS), signed a and region. During a review of Services Research (CCHSR), a Memorandum of Understanding, CA’s inaugural year, RAND Europe collaboration between RAND which outlines their mutual reported on the results of the Europe and the University of commitment to cooperate on joint survey. Our research identified Cambridge. Baroness Neuberger projects undertaken to help BAS in the big issues facing Cambridge – shared her views on what matters its strategic directions and research transport, housing and education – when caring for dying people. practice. RAND Europe will assist and revealed what people thought She highlighted the need for more BAS in the areas of capacity building, about them. Results will be used in familiarity with death in certain research partnering and core support. the strategy CA is now developing. cultures, including in the UK. 40 Spotlight on 2014

council of advisors

Our Council of Advisors provides essential independent guidance, informed by diverse experience and professional distinction. Members support our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Their commitment to excellence in policy analysis is valued.

NEW COUNCIL APPOINTMENTS OUR COUNCIL

We welcomed three new members continued her interest in policy Michael D Rich (Chairman) to our Council of Advisors in 2014. and strategy development with President and Chief Executive Starting his academic career in a focus on both innovation and Officer, RAND Corporation economics, László Andor turned to practical delivery, and the use László Andor writing and journalism, which led of data and evidence to support Former EU Commissioner for to politics. Among various posts, decisionmaking. Sir Gregory Winter, Employment, Social Affairs & he has advised the Hungarian Master of Trinity College, Cambridge Inclusion Prime Minister and served as EU and a Fellow of the Royal Society, Commissioner for Employment, is best known for his research and Paul Adamson OBE Social Affairs & Inclusion until inventions relating to therapeutic Partner and Chairman, Forum 2014. Dr Gill Samuels was formerly antibodies made at the Medical Europe and Editor-in-Chief, E!Sharp Executive Director of Science Research Council’s Laboratory of Sir John Boyd KCMG Policy for Europe at Pfizer. She has Molecular Biology in Cambridge. Chairman, Asia House 41

Lord Crisp KCB Frank Kelly CBE FRS Gill Samuels CBE Independent Member of the Master, Christ’s College, Cambridge Member, Council of University House of Lords College London and Trustee, The Rt Hon Lord Kinnock Science Museum Philippa Foster Back CBE Member of the House of Lords Director, Institute of Business Ethics Sir Gregory Winter CBE FRS Gunvor Kronman Master, Trinity College, Cambridge Susan Hitch CEO, Hanasaari, the Swedish– Manager, Lord Sainsbury of Finnish Cultural Centre Turville’s pro bono programme The Hon Philip Lader David Howarth Chairman, The WPP Group Reader in Law, University of The Rt Hon Michael Portillo Cambridge Broadcaster and Writer 42 Spotlight on 2014

our staff

The key to RAND Europe’s success is our people. And our impact is enhanced by their range of perspectives, diversity of backgrounds and the convergence of different cultural insights, research expertise and policy interests.

NEW STAFF APPOINTMENTS

Three new senior appointments Jeremy Lonsdale and Tom Ling, team and rejoins us, having been in 2014 will build our expertise both Senior Research Leaders, Head of Impact, Innovation & and increase impact. Paul Cornish add vast experience to our current Evidence at Save the Children for has joined to direct our research Evaluation and Performance Audit the past two years. Lonsdale and group in the areas of defence, research practice. Lonsdale is Ling previously worked together, security and infrastructure. He appointed on secondment from the writing a well-received book, previously served in distinguished UK’s National Audit Office (NAO), Performance auditing: contributing academic positions at Chatham where he was previously Director- to accountability in democratic House and the University of General, Value for Money (VFM), government. Exeter and has particular interests and responsible for the quality in cybersecurity, civil−military assurance of NAO’s VFM for the relations and other aspects of UK Parliament. Ling previously contemporary international security. led RAND Europe’s evaluation 43

OUR EXPERTISE

Choice Modelling and Valuation Defence Acquisition and Health and Healthcare [email protected] Industrial Policy [email protected] [email protected] Martin Roland (mr108@medschl. Criminal Justice, Migration, Drugs cam.ac.uk) and Illicit Markets Security and Counter-terrorism [email protected] [email protected] Innovation Policy [email protected] [email protected] Employment, Education and National Strategy, Defence Policy Social Policy Science Policy and Cybersecurity [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Evaluation and Performance Audit Digital Agenda [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 44 Spotlight on 2014

clients and collaborators in 2014

Public sector Foundations, charities and universities Private sector 46 Spotlight on 2014

references

All published by the RAND Corporation, 2014, unless otherwise stated.

living and working smarter (pp. 6–7) Summary report by Chris Giacomantonio et al. European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, 2014 WHO Global Health Observatory website building bridges (p. 17) Mapping Smart Cities in the EU by Catriona Mapping Diasporas in the European Union innovating for efficiency (p. 28) Manville et al. Brussels: European Parliament, and United States: Comparative analysis and European Commission Economic and Financial January 2014 recommendations for engagement: summary Affairs website report by Jirka Taylor et al. (not so) big data (p. 8) social investment (pp. 30–31) Health and Healthcare: Assessing the Real- radical indicators (p. 18) Phase 2 report from the payment by results World Data Policy Landscape in Europe by SAFIRE project results website Social Impact Bond pilot at HMP Peterborough Celine Miani et al. by Emma Disley & Jennifer Rubin. London: ethical minefield (p. 19) legacy systems (p. 9) Ministry of Justice, 2014 Handling ethical problems in counterterrorism: Information Security and Data Protection Legal An inventory of methods to support ethical open discovery (p. 32) and Policy Frameworks Applicable to European decisionmaking by Anaïs Reding et al. The Structural Genomics Consortium: A Union Institutions and Agencies by Neil knowledge platform for drug discovery by Molly Robinson & Jan Gaspers working at well-being (pp. 22–23) Morgan Jones et al. military intelligence (p. 9) Psychological Wellbeing and Work: Improving service provision and outcomes by Christian van the costs of complexity (p. 33) Future technology landscapes: Insights, analysis Stolk et al. London: Department for Work and The Economic Cost of Social Security Fraud and and implications for defence by Maryse Penny Pensions and Department of Health, January Error et al. 2013 2014 hospital care (p. 34) driving lessons (p. 10) unhealthy habits (p. 24) The changing hospital landscape: An Driving in the Future in Developing Countries by Britain’s Healthiest Company website. Special exploration of international experiences by Ellen Liisa Ecola et al. supplement to The Sunday Telegraph, 20 July Nolte et al. sitting comfortably? (p. 11) 2014 Organisational Interventions to Reduce Living Room Connected Devices: Opportunities, creating a health culture (p. 25) Length of Stay in Hospital: A Rapid Evidence Assessment by Celine Miani et al. Health security challenges and privacy implications for For Debate: A New Wave in Public Health users and industry by Neil Robinson et al. Services and Delivery Research, 2, December Improvement by Sally C. Davies et al. The 2014 privacy vs security? (pp. 14–15) Lancet, 384:9987, No. 9957, pp. 1889–1895, 22 November 2014 new horizons (p. 35) Public Perception of Security and Privacy: Assessing Knowledge, Collecting Evidence, fighting cancer (p. 26) The international dimension of research and Translating Research Into Action. D4.1 Headline innovation cooperation addressing the grand Estimating the returns to UK publicly funded challenges in the global context by Cecile Findings Report, February 2014 by Bhanu cancer-related research in terms of the net value Patruni et al. Hoareau McGrath et al. Brussels: European of improved health outcomes by Matthew Commission, 2014 Security at what cost? Quantifying trade-offs Glover et al. BMC Medicine, 12:99, 2014 across liberty, privacy and security by Neil impact in 2014 (pp. 36–37) Robinson et al. 2010 mapping africa’s research landscape (p. 27) Africa Mapping: Current State of Health Research changing policy and practice: police ambassadors (p. 16) on Poverty-Related and Neglected Infectious Psychological Wellbeing and Work: Improving Making and Breaking Barriers: Assessing the Diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa by Ana Lúcia service provision and outcomes by Christian van value of mounted police units in the UK – Cardoso et al. The Hague, Netherlands: Stolk et al. London: Department for Work and 47

Pensions and Department of Health, January by Ines von Behr et al. 2013 Image credits 2014 In Amenable Mortality—deaths Avoidable Joanna Anthony Tackling Partial Not-Spots in Mobile Phone Through Health Care—progress in the US Lags p. 38: left; p. 40: middle; p. 41: left, middle, right; Coverage. Impact Assessment. London: That of Three European Countries by Ellen p. 43: far left, second from left, second from right Department for Culture, Media & Sport, Nolte, Martin McKee. Health Affairs, 31:9, p. Diane Baldwin November 2014 2114–2122, September 2012 p. 3 Bringing Online in Line: Contribution to an Seven chances to meet Europe’s employment Impact Assessment for the Delegated Act to targets by Melinda Mills & Stijn Hoorens. Lex Ballantyne Implement the Online Provisions of the Revised European Voice online, October 2014 p. 38: middle Energy Related Products Directive by Jonathan Measuring impact: how Australia and the UK Cave et al. Brussels: European Commission, 2014 James Bunn are tackling research assessment by Catriona p. 39: right Making and Breaking Barriers: Assessing Manville. Guardian HE network online, the value of mounted police units in the UK. December 2014 Courtesy of the office of László Andor Summary report by Chris Giacomantonio et al. p. 40: left events in 2014 (pp. 38–39) sharing expertise: Courtesy of the office of Sir Gregory Winter university of cambridge festivals: Higher Education Entrance Qualifications and p. 40: right Estimating the economic costs of antimicrobial Exams in Europe: A Comparison by Cecile resistance: Model and Results by Jirka Taylor Courtesy of the Structural Genomics Hoareau McGrath et al. Brussels: European et al. Consortium Parliament, 2014 p. 32 The Cost of Non-Europe in the Single Market: The Cost of Non-Europe in the Single Market: Free Movement of Goods by Marco Hafner et al. François de Ribaucourt Free Movement of Goods by Marco Hafner et al. p. 43: centre and far right Assessment of Young People’s Exposure to Alcohol Marketing in Audiovisual and Online Mark Ellis Media by Eleanor Winpenny et al. London: p. 42: left, middle, right European Commission, September 2012 Emilia Hristokova Exposure of Children and Adolescents to p. 39: left Alcohol Marketing on Social Media Websites by Eleanor Winpenny et al. Alcohol and Alcoholism, iStock 49:2, March/April 2014, pp. 154–159 cover, p. 2, pp. 3–4, p. 8, p. 11, pp.12–13, p. 14, p. 15, p. 18, pp.19–20, p. 23, p. 24, p. 26, pp. 28–29, leading thought: p. 34, pp. 36–37 PBR drug and alcohol recovery pilot on Chris Loades Manchester University website p. 38: right appearing in the media: The Noun Project Estimating the economic costs of antimicrobial p. 7, p. 9, p. 10, p. 14, p. 17, p. 18, p. 23, p. 30, p. 35 resistance: Model and Results by Jirka Taylor et al. Spotlight 2014 team The impact of migration on transport and James Bunn congestion by Flavia Tsang & Charlene Rohr. Lynette Gilbert 2011 For a version of this page with links to Claire O’Brien Radicalisation in the digital era: The use of the online sources visit: Jessica Plumridge internet in 15 cases of terrorism and extremism www.randeurope.org/spotlight2014 Lynne Saylor The RAND Corporation is a not-for-profit research institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis.

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