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The Value of Connections in Turbulent Times: Evidence from the United States
The Value of Connections In Turbulent Times: Evidence from the United States Daron Acemoglu Simon Johnson Amir Kermani MIT and NBER MIT and NBER MIT James Kwak Todd Mitton University of Connecticut BYU First Version: May 2009 This Version: May 2013 Abstract The announcement of Tim Geithner as President-elect Obama’snominee for Treasury Sec- retary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for …nancial …rms with which he had a personal connection. This return was around 15 percent from day 0 through day 10, relative to other comparable …nancial …rms. This result holds across a range of robustness checks and regardless of whether we measure connections in terms of …rms with headquar- ters in New York City, meetings he had in 2007-08, or non-pro…t board memberships he shared with …nancial services executives. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected …rms when news broke that Geithner’s con…rmation might be derailed by tax issues. Roughly in line with market expectations, the Obama administration hired people from Geithner-connected …rms into top level …nancial policy positions. Geithner’s policies proved supportive of large …nancial …rms’executives, shareholders, and creditors –including for Citigroup, with which he had the strongest prior connections. But the market-perceived quantitative value of connections is broader than just for the “too big to fail” category. We argue that this value of connections re‡ects the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small network of …nancial sector executives during a time of acute crisis and heightened policy discretion. Keywords: cultural capture, political connections, economic crises, institutions JEL Classi…cation: G01, G14, G21, G28 For helpful comments we thank seminar participants at MIT, Harvard Business School, the International Monetary Fund, the University of Alberta, BYU, and the 2012 Econometric Society meetings. -
AUCTION QUOTAS with OLIGOPOLY Cambridge, MA 02138
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE CASE OF THE VANISHING REVENUES: AUCTION QUOTAS WITH OLIGOPOLY Kala Krishna Working Paper No. 2723 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 1988 I am grateful to the Center for International Affairs at Harvard and The World Bank for research support, to Vijay Krishna for asking the question, to Susan Collins for the title, to Kathleen Hogan and Phillip Swagel for able research assistance, and to Paul Krugman and Elhanan Helpman for access to Chapter 4 in their forthcoming book on VERs with foreign duopoly. I am also grateful to Lael Brainard for comments. Some parts of this paper were presented at the Conference on International Trade at the University of Western Ontario and to the lunch group on international economics of the NBER in the Spring of 1988. This research is part of the NBER's researchprogram in International Studies. Any opinions expressed are those of the author not those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NEER Working Paper #2723 September 1988 THECASEOF THE VANISHING REVENUES; AUCTION QUOTAS WITH OLIGOPOLY ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of auctioning quota licenses when market power exists. The overall conclusion is that with oligopolistic markets, quotas, even when set optimally and with quota licenses auctioned off, are - unlikelyto dominate free trade. Moreover, auction quotas only strictly dominate giving away licenses which are competitively traded if thequota is quite restrictive. When there is a foreign duopoly or oligopoly and domestic competition it is shown that such sales of licenses does not raise revenues unless they are quite restrictive. -
ML Strategies Update Financial Services Legislative and Regulatory Update
ML Strategies Update Jason Rosenstock [email protected] ML Strategies, LLC 701 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Abby Matousek Washington, DC 20004 USA [email protected] 202 296 3622 202 434 7400 fax Follow us on Twitter: @MLSFinRegUpdate www.mlstrategies.com JANUARY 14‚ 2013 Financial Services Legislative and Regulatory Update Leading the Past Week As was widely anticipated, President Obama announced that he was nominating Jack Lew to succeed Treasury Secretary Geithner. With Lew having already gone through the confirmation process twice before, it is expected that he will sail through. However, it does seem that he has some detractors, and that there could be opposition based more on policy than personality. And of course, there is “serious” concern about how his unique signature would appear on the nation’s currency. The Congressional recess last week didn’t prevent the CFPB from rolling out its much anticipated qualified mortgage, or “QM” standard, which was included as part of a larger “ability to repay rule”. This new rule, along with the continued announcements of additional settlements between lenders and their regulators, the latest one dealing with questionable foreclosure practices, is seen by some as necessary to turn the page on the core causes of the financial crisis. Similarly, in international news, the Basel Committee finalized recommendations for liquidity standards and risk reporting, with the former offering concessions to the industry. Legislative Branch Senate Senate Confirms Berner to Head Office of Financial Research On January 1st, following the release of a hold by Senator Charles Grassley (R-IA), the Senate confirmed Richard Berner to head the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research (OFR). -
Congress Underestimated: the Case of the World Bank
University of Michigan Law School University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository Articles Faculty Scholarship 2013 Congress Underestimated: The aC se of the World Bank Kristina Daugirdas University of Michigan Law School, [email protected] Available at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/articles/625 Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.law.umich.edu/articles Part of the Constitutional Law Commons, Legislation Commons, Organizations Law Commons, and the President/Executive Department Commons Recommended Citation Daugirdas, Kristina. "Congress Underestimated: The asC e of the World Bank." Am. J. Int'l L. 107, no. 3 (2013): 517-62. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Articles by an authorized administrator of University of Michigan Law School Scholarship Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. This article is reproduced with permission from the July 2013 issue of the American Journal of International Law © 2013 American Society of International Law. All rights reserved. CONGRESS UNDERESTIMATED: THE CASE OF THE WORLD BANK By Kristina Daugirdas* International organizations undermine democracy, or so their critics charge: not only do international organizations themselves operate undemocratically,1 but they undercut demo- cratic governance within their member states. In particular, when states participate in inter- national organizations, they lose control over policy outcomes because each state must share decision-making authority with other member states.2 And within member states, national legislatures—the bodies specifically designed to be responsive to popular control—are margin- alized.3 Legislatures lack direct influence over international organizations and also have little influence over the executive branch’s interactions with such organizations.4 * Assistant Professor of Law, University of Michigan Law School. -
Ukraine NATO and the Geithner Doctrine
Ukraine, NATO Enlargement, and the Geithner Doctrine Clifford G. Gaddy and Barry W. Ickes* “[T]he central paradox of financial crises is that what feels just and fair is the opposite of what’s required for a just and fair outcome.” — Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, The New York Times, November 5, 2011 Sober analysis of the current stand-off over Ukraine tells us we are in a deep mess, worse than people tend to recognize. The events playing out now are bigger than Ukraine (even though, as we explain elsewhere, Ukraine is important to Russia). Both Russia and the West are deeply committed to broader objectives that seem fundamentally irreconcilable. There are no easy solutions to the crisis. Finding a way out is going to be long, costly, and messy, and the best final outcome is likely to feel unsatisfactory. In this regard, the remarks by Timothy Geithner quoted above are relevant. They are even more appropriate because Russia, through its current actions in Ukraine, has exposed the post-Cold War order in Europe as the geopolitical equivalent of a financial bubble. We have enjoyed two decades of benefits from this order. But we did so under the illusion that it was nearly costless. Now we are finding out that there is a bill to pay. To understand this metaphor, we need to examine how the crisis developed. The Missing Quadrant We can explain by using a simple framework that we first developed in 2008 after the Georgia crisis. Imagine a matrix with two columns, one labelled “Strong Russia” and the other “Weak Russia,” and two rows, one for “Good Russia” and the other for “Bad Russia.” Into the quadrants of this matrix we place the various “future Russias” as they were envisioned by most Western policymakers in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. -
The Future of Housing Finance Reform
The Future of Housing Finance Reform Phillip Swagel School of Public Policy University of Maryland October 2011 1 Introduction The U.S. housing finance system failed badly in the financial crisis, leading to hundreds of billions of dollars in losses from bad loans and millions of people losing their home or still at risk of foreclosure. Reform of this system remains vital for families looking to buy homes, for investors with funds to lend, and for taxpayers who deserve a stable financial system and protection from another expensive bailout. Yet housing finance reform was largely absent from the major financial regulatory reform bill enacted in July 2010, and there has been little subsequent policy progress. In particular, the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-sponsored enterprises that securitize and guarantee mortgages and that have been in conservatorship since September 2008, remains unclear and requires Congressional action. In the meantime, the United States is left with a system in which the government is involved with nearly all mortgage origination, taxpayers are left with mounting risks, and private incentives are muted. This paper proposes a reform for the U.S. housing finance system that addresses the flaws of the old system and would leave a new system that can remain effective and stable over the long term.1 The private sector would be the main supplier of capital for housing, while the U.S. government provides a secondary guarantee on conforming mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Competition plays a key role in the proposal, with multiple firms performing the securitization of eligible loans into government-backed MBS. -
Resolution of Failed Financial Institutions: Orderly Liquidation Authority and a New Chapter 14
RESOLUTION OF FAILED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: ORDERLY LIQUIDATION AUTHORITY AND A NEW CHAPTER 14 Studies by the Resolution Project at Stanford University's Hoover Institution Working Group on Economic Policy By Thomas H. Jackson Kenneth E. Scott Kimberly Anne Summe John B. Taylor Resolution Project Members Andrew Crockett, Darrell Duffie, Richard J. Herring, Thomas H. Jackson, William F. Kroener, Kenneth E. Scott, David Skeel, George P. Shultz, Kimberly Anne Summe, John B. Taylor April 25, 2011 CONTENTS Preface JOHN B. TAYLOR 1. A Guide to the Resolution of Failed Financial Institutions: Dodd-Frank Title II and Proposed Chapter 14 KENNETH E. SCOTT 2. Bankruptcy Code Chapter 14: A Proposal THOMAS H. JACKSON 3. An Examination of Lehman Brothers' Derivatives Portfolio Post-Bankruptcy and Whether Dodd-Frank Would Have Made Any Difference KIMBERLY ANNE SUMME 4. Dodd-Frank: Resolution or Expropriation? KENNETH E. SCOTT page I. PREFACE By John B. Taylor Let's write Chapter 14 into the law so that we have a credible alternative to bailouts in practice. We can then be ready to use a rules-based bankruptcy process to allow financial firms to fail without causing financial disruption --George P. Shultz foot note 1 "A Conversation About Key Conclusions," in Ending Government Bailouts As We Know Them, Kenneth E. Scott, George P. Shultz, John B. Taylor (Eds.), Hoover Press, 2009, p. 287. end of foot note. The purpose of this short collection of papers is to demonstrate why the "orderly liquidation authority" in Title II of the Dodd-Frank bill "Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010" should be supplemented with a new and more predictable bankruptcy process designed specifically for large financial institutions. -
A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers1
Presentation to the 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies—“Meeting the Challenges of the Financial Crisis” Organized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College New York City By Janet L. Yellen, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco For delivery on April 16, 2009, 8:00 PM Eastern Time, 5:00 PM Pacific A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers1 It’s a great pleasure to speak to this distinguished group at a conference named for Hyman P. Minsky. My last talk here took place 13 years ago when I served on the Fed’s Board of Governors. My topic then was “The ‘New’ Science of Credit Risk Management at Financial Institutions.” It described innovations that I expected to improve the measurement and management of risk. My talk today is titled “A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers.” I won’t dwell on the irony of that. Suffice it to say that, with the financial world in turmoil, Minsky’s work has become required reading. It is getting the recognition it richly deserves. The dramatic events of the past year and a half are a classic case of the kind of systemic breakdown that he—and relatively few others—envisioned. Central to Minsky’s view of how financial meltdowns occur, of course, are “asset price bubbles.” This evening I will revisit the ongoing debate over whether central banks should act to counter such bubbles and discuss “lessons learned.” This issue seems especially compelling now that it’s evident that episodes of exuberance, like the ones that led to our bond and house price bubbles, can be time bombs that cause catastrophic damage to the economy when they explode. -
The Politics and Economics of Offshore Outsourcing
The Politics and Economics of Offshore Outsourcing The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Mankiw, N. Gregory and Phillip Swagel. 2006. The politics and economics of dffshore outsourcing. AEI Working Paper Series. Published Version http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w12398 Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:2770517 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE POLITICS AND ECONOMICS OF OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING N. Gregory Mankiw Phillip Swagel Working Paper 12398 http://www.nber.org/papers/w12398 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2006 We are grateful to Alan Deardorff, Jason Furman, John Maggs, Sergio Rebelo, Alan Viard, Warren Vieth, and participants at the November 2005 Carnegie-Rochester conference for helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2006 by N. Gregory Mankiw and Phillip Swagel. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Politics and Economics of Offshore Outsourcing N. Gregory Mankiw and Phillip Swagel NBER Working Paper No. 12398 July 2006 JEL No. ABSTRACT This paper reviews the political uproar over offshore outsourcing connected with the release of the Economic Report of the President (ERP) in February 2004, examines the differing ways in which economists and non-economists talk about offshore outsourcing, and assesses the empirical evidence on the importance of offshore outsourcing in accounting for the weak labor market from 2001 to 2004. -
10The Financial Crisis and the New York Federal Reserve District YEARS AFTER
10YEARS AFTER The Financial Crisis and the New York Federal Reserve District 10 YEARS AFTER: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 1 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was researched and written by Maggie Corser. Shawn Sebastian provided supplemental writing and editing. It was edited by Emily Gordon and Jordan Haedtler, Center for Popular Democracy. The report benefitted from and cites data analysis by the Economic Policy Institute of the Current Population Survey, and the Urban Institute of the Survey of Consumer Finances. ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS The Center for Popular Democracy (CPD) works to create equity, opportunity and a dynamic democracy in partnership with high-impact base-building organizations, organizing alliances, and progressive unions. CPD strengthens our collective capacity to envision and win an innovative pro-worker, pro-immigrant, racial and economic justice agenda. www.populardemocracy.org Fed Up is a coalition of community organizations and labor unions across the country, calling on the Federal Reserve to reform its governance and adopt policies that build a strong economy for the American public. The Fed can keep interest rates low, give the economy a fair chance to recover, and prioritize genuine full employment and rising wages. www.ThePeoplesFed.org 2 10 YEARS AFTER: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE NEW YORK FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 10 Years After: the Financial Crisis and the New York Federal Reserve District EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report marks the 10-year anniversary of the global financial crisis that threatened the stability of the financial system and resulted in severe and protracted economic hardship for communities across the United States. -
"What Can an Economic Adviser Do When the President Adopts Bad Economic Policies?"
"What Can An Economic Adviser Do When the President Adopts Bad Economic Policies?" Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor, KSG, Harvard University The Pierson Lecture, Swarthmore, April 21, 2005 Summary: What would you do if you were appointed Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under a president who was committed to one or more specific policies that you considered to be inconsistent with good economics? A look at the experiences of your predecessors over the last 40 years might help illustrate your alternative options. The lecture will review the history. It will then go on to suggest that such conflicts should be particularly acute in the current Administration. The reason is that Republican presidents have increasingly adopted policies-- with regard particularly to budget deficits, trade, the size of government, and inflation -- that deviate from the principles of good economics, and that used to be considered the weaknesses of Democratic presidents. It is a great honor to be giving the Pierson lecture.1 I must confess that I never had Frank Pierson for a course. But he was the senior eminence of the Economics Department when I attended Swarthmore in the early 1970s, having already been associated with the department more than 40 years. In that time, Frank Pierson was known as one of the last professors who still regularly held his honors seminars at his house, with an impressive series of desserts, including make-your-own sundaes, and Irish coffee. The early 1970s were a volatile time of course, with the War in Viet Nam still on.2 In 1972 the big split on campus was between those of us working for McGovern on the left, and the 1 The author wishes to acknowledge help from Peter Jaquette, Arnold Kling, Jeff Miron, Stephen O’Connell, Francis Bator, Michael Boskin, David Cutler, Jason Furman, Gilbert Heebner, William Gale, Jeff Liebman, Peter Orszag, Roger Porter, Charles Schultze, Phillip Swagel, Laura Tyson, Murray Weidenbaum, Marina Whitman, and Janet Yellen. -
Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES OFF-BALANCE-SHEET FEDERAL LIABILITIES James D. Hamilton Working Paper 19253 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19253 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 July 2013 I am grateful to Marjorie Flavin, Robert Hall, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Jeffrey Miron, Phillip Swagel, and seminar and conference participants at U.C. San Diego and the Cato Institute for helpful comments on this paper. This study was prepared for Cato Papers on Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2013 by James D. Hamilton. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities James D. Hamilton NBER Working Paper No. 19253 July 2013 JEL No. H6 ABSTRACT Much attention has been given to the recent growth of the U.S. federal debt. This paper examines the growth of federal liabilities that are not included in the officially reported numbers. These take the form of implicit or explicit government guarantees and commitments. The five major categories surveyed include support for housing, other loan guarantees, deposit insurance, actions taken by the Federal Reserve, and government trust funds. The total dollar value of notional off-balance-sheet commitments came to $70 trillion as of 2012, or 6 times the size of the reported on-balance-sheet debt.