bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/658799; this version posted June 3, 2019. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 1 Article type: Letter 2 3 Long-term influence of climate and experimental eutrophication regimes on phytoplankton 4 blooms 5 6 7 Kateri R. Salk1, Jason J. Venkiteswaran2, Raoul-Marie Couture3, Scott N. Higgins4, Michael J. 8 Paterson4, and Sherry L. Schiff5 9 10 1Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA 11 2Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University, Ontario, 12 Canada 13 3Department of Chemistry, Université Laval, Quebec, Canada 14 4IISD Experimental Lakes Area Inc., Manitoba, Canada 15 5Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada 16 17 18 Corresponding author: 19 Kateri Salk 20
[email protected] 21 Nicholas School of the Environment 22 Duke University 23 Durham, NC 27708 24 USA 25 26 Author Contribution Statement 27 KRS conducted modeling and analysis efforts. RMC provided expertise on model application 28 and validation. SLS and JJV provided guidance on the research questions. KRS, RMC, JJV, and 29 SLS analyzed model fit, guided scenario analysis, and provided interpretations of results. SNH 30 and MJP provided guidance on historical data analyses, model input data, and postprocessing 31 analyses. KRS wrote the manuscript, and all coauthors contributed edits to the manuscript. 32 1 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/658799; this version posted June 3, 2019.