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Evaluation Case Studies of Local Economic Impacts | Falmouth Case Study

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Evaluation Case Studies of Local Economic Impacts | Falmouth Case Study New or improved rail Department for Transport Rail lines – Evaluation case Group studies of local economic impacts Falmouth Case Study Our ref: 22961201 January 2018 New or improved rail Department for Transport Rail lines – Evaluation case Group studies of local economic impacts Falmouth Case Study Our ref: 22961201 January 2018 Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave Department for Transport Rail Group 28-32 Upper Ground Great Minster House London SE1 9PD 33 Horseferry Road London SW1P 4DR +44 20 7910 5000 www.steerdaviesgleave.com Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for Department for Transport Rail Group. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 5 Overall aims of the project ........................................................................................................... 5 The Falmouth case study .............................................................................................................. 6 2 Economic, socio-demographic and transport context ......................................................... 10 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 10 Overview of Falmouth ................................................................................................................ 10 Rail usage at Falmouth ............................................................................................................... 17 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 18 3 The comparison area ........................................................................................................ 19 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 19 Selection of the comparison area ............................................................................................... 19 Comparison of rail usage ............................................................................................................ 21 Comparison of socio-economic characteristics .......................................................................... 23 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 27 4 Behavioural Impacts of the Transport Intervention ............................................................ 28 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 28 Trends in travel patterns ............................................................................................................ 29 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 39 5 Economic Impacts of the Transport Intervention ............................................................... 40 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 40 Investment effects (residential).................................................................................................. 40 Investment effects (businesses) ................................................................................................. 43 Tourism effects ........................................................................................................................... 46 Employment effects .................................................................................................................... 46 Productivity effects ..................................................................................................................... 54 6 Conclusions and Scope for Future Work ............................................................................ 60 Transport impacts ....................................................................................................................... 60 Economic impacts ....................................................................................................................... 60 January 2018 Figures Figure 1.1: Railways in Cornwall and West Devon ....................................................................... 7 Figure 1.2: Falmouth within the South West ................................................................................ 8 Figure 1.3: Falmouth case study area ........................................................................................... 9 Figure 2.1: Population Index, 2004-2008 ................................................................................... 11 Figure 2.2: Total Employment Index (aged 16-64) in Cornwall, 2004-2008 ............................... 12 Figure 2.3: Employment by industry in Falmouth, 2008 ............................................................ 13 Figure 2.4: GVA per worker in Cornwall, 2004-2008 .................................................................. 14 Figure 2.5: Average distance travelled to work by Falmouth residents (by mode), 2001 ......... 16 Figure 2.6: Index of station usage, 2004-5 to 2008-09 ............................................................... 17 Figure 3.1: Location of Falmouth case study area and Gunnislake comparison area ................ 20 Figure 3.2: Location of Gunnislake comparison area ................................................................. 20 Figure 3.3: Index of station entries and exits in Falmouth and Gunnislake, 2004-05 to 2008-09 .................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 3.4: Population index for Falmouth and Gunnislake, 2004-08 ........................................ 23 Figure 3.5: Primary mode of travel to work in Falmouth and Gunnislake, 2001 ....................... 24 Figure 3.6: Average distance travelled to work by Falmouth and Gunnislake residents (by mode), 2001 ................................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 3.7: Employment by industry in Falmouth and Gunnislake, 2008................................... 26 Figure 4.1: Primary mode of travel to work (Study Area), 2011................................................ 29 Figure 4.2: Station entries and exits in Falmouth and Gunnislake, 2008-09 to 2015-16 ........... 31 Figure 4.3: Since the improvements in 2009 has the amount you travel by rail increased, decreased, or stayed the same? ................................................................................................. 34 Figure 4.4: Since the improvements in 2009, have you changed the amount you travel by other means? (Falmouth only) ............................................................................................................. 35 Figure 4.5: Since 2009, travelling by rail is more convenient than it used to be ....................... 36 Figure 4.6: What are the main reasons you started using this station? ..................................... 37 Figure 4.7: For what journey purposes do you tend to use this station? ................................... 38 Figure 5.1: Change in Population, 2004-2015 ............................................................................ 42 Figure 5.2: Property Price Trends in Cornwall, 2009-16 ............................................................. 43 Figure 5.3: Relative importance of rail to different aspects of business .................................... 44 Figure 5.4: Satisfaction with local rail services ........................................................................... 45 Figure 5.5: Change in employees, 2003-2015 ............................................................................ 47 January 2018 Figure 5.6: Number of Hotels, Restaurants, and Retail employees in Falmouth and Gunnislake, 2003-2015 ................................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 5.7: Change in sectoral composition of employees, 2008-2015 ..................................... 49 Figure 5.8: Total employment in Falmouth and Gunnislake, 2003-2015 (local business units analysis) ...................................................................................................................................... 50 Figure 5.9: Total small micro and micro local
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