what’s the problem with delta?

what’s important

- largest in - 2nd largest compact reedbed in the World -species: ~300 birds; ~90 fish

Established as Biosphere Reserve in 1998 – shared by (~80%) and

Populated since Neolithic Exploited by Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Ottomans what’s important

NIDD, 2005 the delta - evolution

Giosan et al., 2006 the delta - morphology

Giosan et al., 2005 global influences

sea level

climate sea level (subsidence)

Giosan et al., 2006

van der Hoeven et al., 2006 Cazenave et al., 2002 climate - river

Giosan et al., in prep. climate - basin

Vespremeanu-Stroe et al., 2007 regional influences upstream:

discharge deforestation dam irrigation pollution basin:

morphodynamics salinization the river the river – water and discharge

Water and Suspended Sediment Discharge 1945-2005, CEATAL

10000 3500 9000 3000 R (kg/s) 8000 7000 2500

Q (m3/s) 6000 2000 5000 4000 1500 3000 1000 2000 500 1000 0 0 1993 1987 1975 1978 1981 1966 2002 2005 1996 1990 1984 1969 1972 1963 1951 1954 1945 1999 1957 1960 1948 the river – dams the basin –

Humborg al., 1997 the basin – waves, currents sediment transport

Giosan et al., 2005 the basin – shelf morphodynamics

Giosan, Constantinescu et al., in prep. the basin – river mouth morphodynamics

Giosan et al., 2005 the basin – river mouth morphodynamics the basin – coast morphodynamics

Time 1

Time 2

Time 3

Ashton and Giosan, in prep. the basin – coast morphodynamics

2003

Giosan et al., in 2005 local human perspective: urbanization agriculture-fishing tourism transport population property issues hazards: inundation shoaling (sediment routing across delta) the delta – water and sediment routing

Chilia

St. George

Sulina

Bondar, 2003 the delta – fishing

NIDD, 2005 the delta – water and sediment routing

NIDD, 2005 the delta – transport the problems

DD evolved in stable sea level regime – now sea level rise accelerated

DD evolved in stable? sediment regime – now sediment less than half

DD evolved in a natural coastal regime – now engineered

DD escaped heavy development – now at the horizon indus delta: what do we know?

liviu giosan climate

Bookhagen et al., 2006 evolution (climate, sea level, subsidence)

Giosan et al., in prep. largest irrigation system

Inam et al., in press salinization, desertification the shelf

Giosan et al., 2006 the coast

1 11 21 31Advance 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 200 150 100 1855-1954 50 1978-2000 0 -50 -100

-150 Retreat 1 Shoreline Change Rate (m/year) Change Rate Shoreline -200 Profile Number 36

115 145 Giosan et al., 2006 Thank You !