Natwest Group Plc (Holding Company)
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NatWest Group plc (Holding Company) National Westminster Bank Plc (Lead Bank) Primary Credit Analyst: Richard Barnes, London + 44 20 7176 7227; [email protected] Secondary Contact: John Wright, London (44) 20-7176-0520; [email protected] Table Of Contents Major Rating Factors Outlook Rationale Related Criteria Related Research WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 1 NatWest Group plc (Holding Company) National Westminster Bank Plc (Lead Bank) Additional SACP bbb+ Support +2 0 + + Factors Anchor bbb+ Issuer Credit Rating ALAC +2 Business Support Adequate Position 0 A/Negative/A-1 Capital and GRE Support Adequate 0 Earnings 0 Resolution Counterparty Rating Risk Position Adequate A+/--/A-1 0 Group Support 0 Funding Average Bank Holding Company ICR 0 Sovereign Liquidity Adequate Support 0 BBB/Negative/A-2 Major Rating Factors Strengths: Weaknesses: • Ranks among the leaders in its core markets, • The sharp recession triggered by the COVID-19 particularly U.K. retail and commercial banking. pandemic significantly increased credit impairments. • Ongoing focus on simplifying the business model, • Pressure on revenues from the flatter yield curve including downsizing the capital markets division, and reduced customer activity in some product and improving cost efficiency. segments. • Sound capital, funding, and liquidity profiles. • Geographic concentration in the U.K. and Ireland. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 2 NatWest Group plc Outlook: Negative The negative outlook on NatWest Group plc (NatWest; previously named The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc) and its subsidiaries reflects downside risks to asset quality and earnings from the economic and market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although we view positively NatWest's robust balance sheet profile and the unprecedented fiscal and monetary response, an extended economic downturn could further increase impairment losses and weaken revenues over our two-year outlook horizon. Downside scenario We could lower the ratings if we think the deteriorating operating environment could materially weaken NatWest's asset quality and profitability. The likely trigger for us to consider a downgrade is a lowering of our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) for the U.K., NatWest's home market. In that scenario, we would consider the extent to which NatWest's balance sheet strengths may mitigate the adverse economic conditions. Upside scenario We could revise the outlook to stable if NatWest's earnings and balance sheet metrics remain resilient, or if governments and central banks are successful in averting a deep and long-lasting recession. Rationale The 'bbb+' group stand-alone credit profile (SACP) is underpinned by NatWest's strong franchise in U.K. retail and commercial banking and its robust capital, funding, and liquidity profiles. The group SACP is constrained by NatWest's mediocre performance record, exacerbated by the current recession. Higher-rated peers typically have stronger, more resilient earnings and credit-positive geographic diversity. They also tend to have finished internal restructuring programs and achieved stable business models. NatWest was lossmaking in the first nine months of 2020 due to a sharp increase in impairment charges, lower revenues, and continued restructuring charges. It is seeking to improve its medium-term returns through further cost cutting and by downsizing the capital markets business. We revised the outlook to negative in Spring 2020 due to the economic and market stress triggered by COVID-19 (see "Royal Bank of Scotland Outlook Revised To Negative On Economic Impact Of COVID-19; Ratings Affirmed," published on April 23, 2020). NatWest is a significant lending bank and has sizable exposures to corporate sectors that are particularly constrained by reduced discretionary spending. The strong fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic has kept realized losses at low levels, but we expect they will increase in 2021. We consider that NatWest's closest domestic peers are Lloyds Banking Group plc ('a-' group SACP), Barclays PLC ('bbb+'), Santander UK Group Holdings plc ('bbb+'), and Nationwide Building Society ('a-'). NatWest also competes with the U.K. ring-fenced and non-ring-fenced subsidiaries of HSBC Holdings plc ('a'). Internationally, peers with comparable group SACPs and business models include ABN AMRO Bank N.V. ('a-'), Commerzbank AG ('bbb'), Danske Bank A/S ('a-'), and Société Générale ('bbb+'). WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 3 NatWest Group plc Table 1 NatWest Group plc--Key Figures --Year ended Dec. 31-- (Mil. £) 2020* 2019 2018 2017 2016 Adjusted assets 800,285 716,417 687,619 731,513 792,176 Customer loans (gross) 369,285 342,616 328,792 326,998 327,478 Adjusted common equity 29,853 30,462 32,565 34,399 33,699 Operating revenues 5,942 12,009 12,931 12,924 12,522 Noninterest expenses 3,368 7,005 7,322 7,522 8,061 Core earnings N/A 3,467 2,777 3,113 2,817 *Data as of June 30. N/A--Not applicable. Anchor:'bbb+' reflecting NatWest's strong domestic focus We use our BICRA economic and industry risk scores to determine the starting point, or anchor, for assigning an issuer credit rating (ICR). U.K.-based clients comprise more than 80% of NatWest's loans, and Ireland is its main international market. We have a negative trend on the BICRA economic risk score for the U.K., and NatWest's anchor would fall to 'bbb', from the current 'bbb+', if we revised down the score. We view the economic risk trend for the U.K., as it affects its domestic banking sector, as negative. This reflects the uncertain and evolving epidemiological situation, and associated containment measures which inadvertently restrict economic activity. Moreover, a switch to a basic free trade agreement with the EU at year-end 2020 and more uncertain access for U.K. services to the EU's single market-–our base case-–will weigh on the pace of economic recovery. While economic prospects remain so uncertain, we cannot be sure that cumulative credit losses will not exceed our current assumptions. A revision of the trend to stable appears unlikely given the continued macro uncertainty, but could arise if bank asset quality holds up better than we assume. The industry risk trend is stable as we incorporate the strong institutional framework and robust funding profile. However, pre-provision earnings are being squeezed by the even lower rate environment than we had previously assumed, as well as reduced economic activity even as competition remains robust. If we believe that medium-term earnings prospects have been structurally impaired, then we could eventually consider lowering our industry risk assessment. Business position: Focus on U.K. retail and commercial banking Our assessment of NatWest's business position balances our view of its strong franchises in core markets with its continued pursuit of stronger, more consistent earnings. The NatWest Markets (NWM) and Ulster Bank Ireland divisions have particularly underperformed and the group's cost efficiency metrics lag those of the leading competitors. A February 2020 strategy update included new initiatives that should underpin stronger medium-term profitability if executed well. NatWest is a leading competitor across U.K. retail and commercial banking, which contribute the majority of revenues (see chart 1). It is also present in Irish retail and commercial banking through Ulster Bank Ireland. NatWest operates in capital markets through NWM, and in private banking mostly under the Coutts brand. Royal Bank of Scotland International is headquartered in Jersey and primarily operates across the U.K. crown dependencies. WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 4 NatWest Group plc Chart 1 We view NatWest's strategy update as a refocusing of the business profile more than a fundamental shift. It focuses on supporting customers, improving cost efficiency, and rationalizing the NWM business. NatWest believes these steps will support progress toward a 9%-11% return on tangible equity (RoTE) in the medium to long term. Change programs have inherent execution risks, but NatWest has long experience in downsizing businesses and cutting costs. The strategy commits NatWest to several more years of internal restructuring, and its 2020 full-year earnings will be burdened by between £800 million and £1 billion of implementation costs. The NWM division represented 17% of group regulatory risk-weighted assets (RWAs) at Sept. 30, 2020, down from 21% at year-end 2019. This is ahead of NatWest's original target and it plans to further reduce NWM's contribution to about 10% in the medium term. NWM is reducing activity with institutional clients, particularly in rates products, and focusing on capital-efficient financing and flow trading for corporate customers. NWM's smaller footprint should simplify NatWest's credit profile and improve the predictability of its earnings. However, competitors target the same market segments and NatWest will need to differentiate its offering to succeed. NatWest is currently undertaking a strategic review of Ulster Bank Ireland, which is challenged by legacy assets, negative interest rates, and the dominant market position of the two leading Irish banks. The outcome of this review could potentially have financial implications for NatWest, such as further restructuring charges, but is unlikely to affect WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT NOVEMBER 23, 2020 5 NatWest Group plc our ratings. While the review is progressing, Ulster Bank Ireland continues to grow balances in target markets, particularly mortgages. NatWest has a good record in shrinking its cost base, and we expect it will maintain this trend partly by harnessing new working practices adopted during the pandemic. Like peers, NatWest is investing in digitalizing internal processes and client services, resulting in improved operational resilience and customer satisfaction. Its differentiated digital strategy includes separately-branded propositions, including Mettle for business customers. We have a generally favorable view of NatWest's management and strategy. Alison Rose was promoted to CEO in November 2019, and led the strategy update.