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The Good and Bad of Spotify's Q2 2021 Earnings

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The Good and Bad of Spotify's Q2 2021 Earnings Bulletin YOUR DAILY ENTERTAINMENT NEWS UPDATE JULY 29, 2021 Page 1 of 25 INSIDE The Good and Bad of Spotify’s Q2 • Olivia Rodrigo’s 2021 Earnings: Analysis Radio Reign Continues: ‘She’s BY GLENN PEOPLES Hitting Our Listeners Right in the Heart’ Passing judgement on Spotify’s second-quarter 2021 guidance would be hard to pin down because of earnings depends on one’s point of view. A creator “substantial uncertainty.” Investors didn’t like to hear • Lollapalooza to Require Vaccination or rights holder might look to increasing revenues that, either: Spotify’s share price fell 9% that day. It Card or Negative (up 23% year over year) and growing royalties (cost goes to show you can’t please everybody. Test for Entry of sales was 1.67 billion euros) as indicators that the The essence of Q2 2021 earnings can be boiled company continues to underpin a growing music down to these six topics. • Range Media Launches Record industry — setting aside opinions on the amounts MAUs Label With Capitol & of royalties paid to non-superstar artists. Investors The standout metric in Spotify’s Q2 earnings was Virgin can look to Spotify as a corollary for today’s music monthly average users, which grew 9 million from 356 business before putting money into public (WMG, Vi- to 365 million — with 7 million of those coming from • Nas’ 2014 ‘Illmatic’ Concert in South vendi, Hipgnosis) or private (Primary Wave, Concord) new subscribers. Though paid subs were on the high Africa Spawns music companies. end of guidance, ad-supported listeners were below Charitable NFT Investors, having run up Spotify’s share price to expectations — and the same thing happened in the Collection $387 back on Feb. 22, were obviously disappointed first quarter. This can be interpreted in a couple ways. • Post Malone with monthly active user growth of just 2 million free On one hand, free listeners are worth a fraction of Announces the (ad-supported) listeners this time around. To put subscribers and so a high ratio of subscribers to MAUs Return of Posty Fest that small number in context, in the last two years is desirable. On the other hand, fewer free listeners to- quarterly growth had surpassed 10 million on four day could mean Spotify has fewer listeners to convert MARKET WATCH occasions, and hadn’t dipped below 5 million. After to paying subscribers in the future. MAU growth was PAGE 22 Spotify lowered its guidance for end-of-year MAU, also weak in Q1, suggesting investors tend to have the SONGWRITERS its share price dropped as much as 10% and closed at second interpretation. MAU shortfalls in India, Brazil & PRODUCERS $223.32, down 5.7%. and parts of Southeast Asia and slower adoption CHARTS Not that the quarter’s MAU tally was a surprise. rates in some newly launched markets. “All of these PAGES 23 - 25 Spotify pointedly stated in its Q4 2020 earnings that (continued) TOTAL IMMERSION ESSENTIAL ANALYSIS of the latest business topics and trends formulated to give industry players the competitive advantage in a rapidly changing market. EXCLUSIVE QUARTERLY REPORTS that deliver in-depth, holistic reporting; case studies; and custom data designed to serve the industry. A DEEP DIVE LIBRARY stocked with intelligence on fan data, SUBSCRIBE TO BILLBOARD PRO FOR song catalog sales, TV synchs, Africa’s burgeoning music ACCESS TO NEW REPORTS business and the gaming industry’s embrace of artists. AND THE ARCHIVE ON SALE: AUG. 28, 2021 40 UNDER 40 On August 28th, Billboard will publish its annual 40 CONTACTS : Under 40 Issue, celebrating the next generation of leaders in the music industry. This issue will profile Joe Maimone | 201.301.5933 40 power players who are making their mark in music, [email protected] touring and live entertainment. Lee Ann Photoglo | 615.376.7931 These progressive young leaders’ innovation and [email protected] creativity will continue to create excitement in the music business. Cynthia Mellow | 615.352,0265 Advertise in this issue to reach the music industry’s [email protected] most influential and affluent - from the young disrupters to the seasoned veterans - who paved Marcia Olival | 786.586.4901 the way. [email protected] ON SALE : 8/28 | +447843437176 Issue Close: 8/18 Ryan O’Donnell Materials Due: 8/19 [email protected] Page 3 of 25 IN BRIEF regions were hard hit by COVID,” said CEO U.S. family plan, for example, and a simi- posite directions — and can produce positive Daniel Ek, and Spotify “lost about a quarter lar amount for three discount plans in the results. As Billboard wrote in June, falling of growth between Q1 and Q2.” United Kingdom. The company is comfort- churn improves a subscriber’s lifetime value Engagement! able raising prices in 42 markets because even if ARPU falls. It’s notable that both Ek said Spotify’s strategy “is really engagement has remained high and signals a moved in the same direction in Q2. ARPU focused on increasing engagement.” More “very loyal customer base,” said Ek, and ex- has fallen 11.7% from 4.86 euros in Q2 2019 engagement equals more subscribers that plains “why subscriber growth has been so to 4.12 euros in Q1. But in Q2, ARPU rose to stay with the service longer (resulting in strong as well.” That suggests Spotify could 4.29 euros, the highest mark since 4.41 euros lower churn). Unfortunately, Spotify doesn’t hesitate to raise prices again if engagement in Q2 2020. This happened because Spotify release metrics for engagement such as lis- slips. So, again, engagement is crucial. claims to have successfully raised prices in tening hours per user or time spent listening Margins 40 markets in Q1 without hurting churn or per session. But Ek provides some evidence Even though Spotify focuses on en- engagement. Also, new, sticky product fea- that engagement is increasing. Ek said Spo- gagement and listener growth, it doesn’t tures and family plans helped reduce churn tify released “more than 20 significant new overlook key financial metrics such as gross by 23 basis points (0.23 percentage points features over the last few months,” from col- margin. Q2’s improvement in gross margin y/y and “down modestly” from Q1). laborative listening to Greenroom, Spotify’s was mostly a mirage but still noteworthy. The Long Game answer to Clubhouse. Spotify also wants to Gross margin shows how much revenue is Rather than focus on Spotify’s growth create engagement between listeners and left over after paying royalties and other cost in any one- or two-quarter span, consider creators by launching tools that increase of sales. Spotify had on its books accrued whether where it’s headed in the next two the number of creators from 8 million to publishing royalties but in Q2 determined to or three years. Year-over-year growth in 50 million and build bonds between them. reverse some of the accruals, thus reducing 2021 is misleading because Spotify ex- Ek added that engagement with podcasts royalties and increasing revenue in the quar- ceeded expectations during the first year (which number 2.9 million, up from 2.6 ter. With the help of that one-time event, of the pandemic, Ek said. “We’re still on million in Q1) was up 95% y/y and up 30% gross margin improved from 25.5% in Q1 to track to outpacing the average growth from on a per-user basis. One has to wonder how 28.4% in Q2. Removing the one-time release the past two years in this year. We’re just long Spotify can keep up this engagement of accrued royalties, gross margin would comparing it to an exceptional 2020.” That arms race with a dizzying pace of new fea- have been 26.5% — lower but still ahead of said, Spotify’s goal of becoming the leading ture launches, investments in podcasts and the 23.6 to 25.6% guidance. (Gross margin audio platform — music and podcasts — is acquisitions. was also 26.5% in Q4 2020 and had averaged increasingly pressured by major players Raising Prices 25.6% over the previous 8 quarters.) Spotify such as Apple Music, Amazon, iHeartRadio Spotify’s price hikes in 42 markets were said Q2 margins were also boosted by pod- and SiriusXM. Ek’s goal of reaching 2 billion a hot topic in the Q1 earnings call and Ek cast revenue and the two-sided marketplace. users won’t be easy. addressed the topic again on Wednes- ARPU and Churn day. The increases were modest at $1 in the ARPU and churn usually move in op- AUTHORITATIVE INTELLIGENCE. DELIVERED DIGITALLY. CLICK HERE FOR FREE DELIVERY DIGITAL NEWSLETTERS 2 0 2 1 PHOTO FINISH RECORDS 15TH ANNIVERSARY Photo Finish Records is an independent record label CONTACTS boasting a diverse roster including Alternative Rock, Indie Pop, Electro Pop, and Hip Hop that has amassed billions of Joe Maimone 201.301.5933 | [email protected] streams and over 40 million tracks sold. Lee Ann Photoglo The New York City-based label was created and founded 615.376.7931 | [email protected] by Matt Galle and 2021 will celebrate its fifteenth year of success. As the label grew and developed, Matt brought in Cynthia Mellow his business partner Mike Marquis to co-run the label with 615.352,0265 | [email protected] him. Marcia Olival 786.586.4901 | [email protected] Photo Finish has forged a well-deserved reputation for developing and breaking an eclectic roster of artists Ryan O’Donnell including 3OH!3, SHAED, The Maine, Marian Hill, Mister- +447843437176 | [email protected] Wives, ROZES, The Mowgli's, and new signings Ross Copperman, CAL, Elliot Lee, Lakeview, guardin, and joan.
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