Dictatorship, Disorder and Decline in Myanmar Dictatorship, Disorder and Decline in Myanmar Monique Skidmore and Trevor Wilson (eds) Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at: http://epress.anu.edu.au/myanmar02 _citation.html National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Dictatorship, disorder and decline in Myanmar / editors, Monique Skidmore ; Trevor Wilson. ISBN: 9781921536328 (pbk.) 9781921536335 (pdf) Subjects: Government, Resistance to--Burma. Military government--Burma. Dictatorship--Burma. Human rights--Burma. Burma--Politics and government. Burma--Social conditions. Burma--Economic conditions. Other Authors/Contributors: Skidmore, Monique. Wilson, Trevor. Dewey Number: 303.609591 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design by ANU E Press Cover photo of monks marching in 2007 from Mizzima News Agency Printed by University Printing Services, ANU This edition © 2008 ANU E Press Table of Contents Editors’ note vii Contributors ix 1: Overview 1 Political Update 2: The dramatic events of 2007 in Myanmar: domestic and 13 international implications 3: Internal dynamics of the Burmese military: before, during and 29 after the 2007 demonstrations Economic Update 4: Myanmar’s GDP growth and investment: lessons from a 51 historical perspective 5: Migrant-worker remittances and Burma: an economic analysis 63 of survey results 6: Myanmar’s economic relations with China: who benefits and 87 who pays? Education and Health Update 7: Myanmar education: challenges, prospects and options 113 8: Evolving education in Myanmar: the interplay of state, 127 business and the community 9: The (re)-emergence of civil society in areas of state weakness: 151 the case of education in Burma/Myanmar 10: Islamic education in Myanmar: a case study 177 11: Contemporary medical pluralism in Burma 193 12: Health security among internally displaced and vulnerable 209 populations in eastern Burma Index 223 v Editors’ note This publication uses `Myanmar' in its title because that is the official name of the country and is accepted as such by the United Nations. It has, moreover, been adopted increasingly in common usage inside the country, especially when using the Burmese language. Its use in this publication does not represent a political statement of any kind. We, however, adopt the common practice of allowing authors in their own chapters to use whichever terminology they prefer for the country. With less well-known place names, where historical names have been used, we have added the current official names in parentheses where they are first used in each chapter in order to avoid confusion. The Editors also gratefully acknowledge the support of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) and the Institute of South East Asian Studies (ISEAS) in Singapore for their support of the 2007 Myanmar/Burma Update Conference and the publication of the papers from that conference in this edition. vii Contributors Wylie Bradford is Lecturer in Economics at Macquarie University in Sydney, and researcher at `Burma Economic Watch' Richard Horsey is an independent consultant in Bangkok, and was interim ILO representative in Myanmar from 2003-07. Toshihiro Kudo is Director, Southeast Asian Studies Group II, at the Institute of Developing Economies, in Chiba, Japan. Marie Lall is Lecturer in Education Policy at the Institute of Education, University of London, specialising in education issues in South and Southeast Asia. Jasmin Lorch is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Political Science, Albert-Ludwigs-University Freiburg on civil society in Bangladesh and the Philippines. Mahn Mahn is the Director of the Back Pack Health Workers Team in MaeSot, Thailand, and responsible for data analysis and data collection systems across the border. Win Min is an independent researcher based in Chiangmai, focusing on civil-military relations, who writes, lectures and comments on Burma affairs. U Myint is a former Economic Adviser to the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Bangkok, who writes on the Myanmar economy from Yangon. Monique Skidmore is a medical anthropologist and Dean of Communications and International Studies at the University of Canberra, and has been co-convener of The Australian National University's Myanmar/Burma Update Conference since 2006. Mohammed Mohiyuddin Mohammed Sulaiman is a Myanmar citizen and a PhD candidate at the International Islamic University of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur. Han Tin was Rector of the Institute of Education, Yangon from 1992-2001, when he retired. He now lives in Sydney. Sean Turnell is Senior Lecturer in Economics at Macquarie University in Sydney, where in 2001 he founded the online journal `Burma Economic Watch'. Alison Vicary is Lecturer in Economics at Macquarie University in Sydney, and researcher at `Burma Economic Watch'. Trevor Wilson is a Visiting Fellow at the Department of Political and Social Change at The Australian National University and co-convener of the Myanmar/Burma Update Conference since 2004. ix 1: Overview Trevor Wilson and Monique Skidmore The military government in Myanmar, operating as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), maintains a firm, but increasingly contested hold on power and the country continues to stagnate economically and politically, while its social infrastructure deteriorates. The regime manages to hold out against various campaigns by its political opponents inside and outside the country, and in particular has been successful in expanding its presence into areas where it negotiated cease-fires in the 1990s and in consolidating its control over much of Karen State in eastern Myanmar. It also survived a UN Security Council vote in January 2007, but achieved this only through continued repression and abuse of power, and through loyal support from its UN Security Council backers, China and Russia. There was little movement in the political situation between the end of 2005, when the government relocated to a new capital, Naypyitaw near Pyinmana in the centre of the country, and the end of 2007, when the military regime finally began work on a new constitution. No plausible reason has ever been given for the move to the new capital, although judging by official statements and behaviour, a primary reason seems to be to provide the security-obsessed regime with greater security and to present a more dignified and impressive `front' to the Burmese people and to the outside world. The move to a new government/military headquarters in a remote site where access by the ordinary population can be controlled symbolises the extent to which the regime has become isolated from the people and the extent to which its priorities diverge from pursuing the wellbeing of its people. Not surprisingly, international and media attention has focused on Myanmar in the past year, and in particular on the widespread non-violent mass street protests that occurred in towns and cities across the country without warning between late August and early October 2007, and the savage crackdown against protesters eventually authorised by the military regime. Nominally, and initially, these protests were in response to excessive price increases for fuel imposed by the SPDC, but in reality they were the result of longstanding, pent-up frustration on the part of the people with what they generally saw as the hopeless situation of their country and the reckless economic mismanagement of the military. The protests provided the world with unmistakable `live-to-air' evidence of the extent to which the military had lost the support of the normally submissive population. It also demonstrated the extent to which ordinary people were now 1 Dictatorship, disorder and decline in Myanmar willing to express their opposition to the military regime without resorting to violence while knowing the likely cost to their personal liberty. In this volume, chapters by Richard Horsey (Chapter 2) and Win Min (Chapter 3) provide in-depth analyses of these events, and of the attitudes and actions of the military leadership in response to these developments. The 2007 protests were not isolated events, although they were larger than any protests before or after the nationwide pro-democracy uprising in 1988. They were not just a momentary explosion of pent-up frustration; they reflected the accumulated animosity of the people, and now the Buddhist Sangha, towards the economic mismanagement of their military rulers. During the previous two years, new political groups, such as the '88 Generation Students Group, had been increasingly occupying the centre ground of opposition to the military regime, as the National League for Democracy (NLD) slipped into decline with Aung San Suu Kyi's prolonged detention and the continuing campaign of harassment of NLD members by the security forces. On a political level, lacking any alternative strategy, the SPDC persevered with what it described as its national reconciliation `road-map'. The National Convention, resuming in May 2004 after being suspended for eight years, concluded in September 2007 after adopting guidelines for a new constitution. A constitutional drafting commission was set up by the SPDC in October 2007,