Integrated Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modelling of Lesser Slave Lake Watershed Using MIKE-SHE Modelling Software

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Integrated Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modelling of Lesser Slave Lake Watershed Using MIKE-SHE Modelling Software Integrated Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modelling of Lesser Slave Lake Watershed using MIKE-SHE Modelling Software Manas Shome, Ph.D., P.Eng., WorleyParsons Canada Ltd. Yaw Okyere, M.Sc., P. Eng., Alberta Environment Meghan Payne, B.Sc., Lesser Slave Watershed Council Lesser Slave Lake Photo Credit: Travel Alberta Presentation Outline f Project Objectives f Overview of Modelling f Data Preparation and Mike She Model Setup f Data Preparation and Mike 11 Model Setup f Model Calibration and Validation f Conclusions and Further Works 2 5-May-09 Project Location 3 5-May-09 Study Area Lesser Slave Lake = 1160 sq km Lesser Slave River at the mouth = 20,000 sq km 4 5-May-09 Project Objectives f The Lesser Slave Watershed Council is in the process of developing a sustainable water management plan for the Lesser Slave River watershed f A thorough understanding of the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the watershed is required to develop such a plan f In order to model the various components of a hydrologic cycle including interaction between surface water and groundwater, MIKE-SHE software has been selected for the integrated model development f The developed model will be utilized to assess various scenarios including land use changes and the configuration of the existing Lesser Slave Lake control structure on lake levels and outflows 5 5-May-09 Overview of Modelling f Two models have been built – MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 (software developed by DHI) f Mike She Model computes surface runoff and baseflow based on climate and physical data f Mike 11 routes flows through rivers and lakes f Measured flows and water levels are compared against Mike 11 Modelled results (Calibration and validation) f Calibrated models are then applied for scenario analysis 6 5-May-09 Watershed Modelling – Conceptual Representation 7 5-May-09 Model Input Data Required f Watershed Maps f Digital Elevation Model (DEM) f Landuse data f Climate data (Precipitation, Temperature, Evaporation/Evapotranspiration) f River and Lake Networks f Cross sections of Rivers and Lakes f Soil Type and Subsurface data f Leaf Area Index and Root Depth f Groundwater Elevation 8 5-May-09 MikeMike SheShe ModelModel SetupSetup 9 5-May-09 Study Area Drainage Area: 20,000 sq km Model Cell Size: 1 sq km (changeable) Number of Cells: 20,000 Ground elevation for each cell is obtained from processed DEM data 10 5-May-09 Landuse Input Data Divided the drainage area based on landuse type 11 5-May-09 Climate Data Collection f Inadequate historical climate data readily available for the study area f Inadequate number of monitoring stations located in the study area f Based on literature search, estimated historical climate data were obtained from Alberta Agriculture (1960-2005) f Alberta Agriculture prepared historical climate data on a township basis f Climate data were processed to meet model needs f 30 Precipitation and Temperature locations were selected within the study area as shown in the following slide 12 5-May-09 Meteorological Stations 13 5-May-09 Distribution of Township Climate Data The study area is divided into 30 subareas based on climate data included in the model 14 5-May-09 Evaporation and Evapotranspiration f Evaporation and Evapotranspiration data are computed to cover the period from 1960 to 2005 f Computed data were compared against the limited available data f Estimated historical data were processed to meet the model needs 15 5-May-09 16 Estimated EVP and ET data matched well with AENV data 100 120 140 160 180 200 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 0 5-May-09 Jan-60 Jan-60 Jan-62 Jan-62 Jan-64 Jan-64 Jan-66 Jan-66 Jan-68 Jan-68 Jan-70 Jan-70 Jan-72 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-80 Jan-82 Evaporation andEvapotranspiration Jan-82 Evaporation andEvapotranspiration Jan-84 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-94 Published Data Estimated PotentialEvapotranspiration Jan-96 Published Data Estimated PotentialEvaporation Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-04 Soil Distribution Study area is divided into sub areas based on 5 soil types 17 5-May-09 Subsurface Flow Modelling Subsurface division of the study area for shallow groundwater 18 5-May-09 Subsurface Flow Modelling Continued Subsurface division of the study area for base flow 19 5-May-09 Mike 11 Model Setup 20 5-May-09 Mike 11 Model Network Main Rivers Modelled River Length (m) West Prairie 76,912 East Prairie 106,795 Drift Pile 82,057 Swan 109,781 Otauwa 73,109 Saulteaux 122,114 Driftwood 50,536 Faucett 81,108 Slave River 72,171 Natural Length of Slave River: 79,680 m South Heart 154,802 Regulated Length of Slave River: Slave Lake 117,565 72,171m 21 5-May-09 Cross Sections Input Data 22 5-May-09 Cross Sections for the Lake -The lake is modelled as a river with wide cross sections -30 m wide weir with crest elevation of 575.5 m 23 5-May-09 Hydrometric Gauging Stations 24 5-May-09 Modelling Results 25 5-May-09 Simulated & Observed Outflows from Lesser Slave Lake 07BK001(LesserSlaveRivernearSlaveLake) [m^3/s] Lesser Slave River [m^3/s] East Prairie River Flows 100 0 -100 -200 -300 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Swan2001 River2002 2003 Flows2004 ME=-9.86927 MAE=15.9033 RMSE=18.972 STDres=16.2029 R(Correlation)=0.854637 R2(Nash_Sutcliffe)=0.552701 26 5-May-09 Simulated & Observed Water Levels at LLesseresser SlaSlaveve Lake slave lake [m] Slave lake [m] 578.0 East Prairie River Flows 577.5 577.0 576.5 576.0 575.5 1985 198619871988 19891990 19911992 19931994 19951996 199719981999 20002001 20022003 2004 ME=-0.117701 MAE=0.247091 RMSE=0.298734 STDres=0.27457 R(Correlation)=0.803933 R2(Nash_Sutcliffe)=0.575724 27 5-May-09 Simulated & Observed Hydrographs-Swan River 07BJ001(SWAN River nearKinuso) [mm/day] Swan River [m^3/s] 800 600 400 200 0 1985 19861987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022003 2004 ME=2.30063 MAE=10.0765 RMSE=21.9445 STDres=21.8236 R(Correlation)=0.704676 R2(Nash_Sutcliffe)=0.35767 28 5-May-09 Figure 13A - Comparison of Modelled and Measured Cumulative Discharges -Swan River, 1985 to 2004 8000000 7000000 6000000 Measured Volume ) 3 Modelled Volume 5000000 4000000 3000000 Volum e (dam 2000000 1000000 0 14/11/1984 11/08/1987 7/05/1990 31/01/1993 28/10/1995 24/07/1998 19/04/2001 14/01/2004 Date 29 5-May-09 Figure 14A - Comparison of Modelled and Measured Cumulative Discharges -Swan River, 1961 to 1981 9000000 8000000 7000000 Measured Volume ) 6000000 3 Modelled Volume 5000000 4000000 Volum e (dam 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 7/08/1961 3/05/1964 28/01/1967 24/10/1969 20/07/1972 16/04/1975 10/01/1978 6/10/1980 Date 30 5-May-09 Water Balance-Saulteaux River (1984-2004) Total Error 111 Precipitation 10961 Evapotranspiration 8640 Snow-Storage change 89 37 Canopy-Storage change OL-Storage change 0 Boundary flow 42 OL->rive r/MOUSE 1224 122 UZ-Storage change -46 Infilt. incl. Evap Base flow to River 1125 0 0 1064 60 SZ-Storage change Boundary flow 11 -82 Accumulated w aterbalance from 1/09/1984 12:00:00 PM to 29/12/2004 12:00:00 PM. Data type : Storage depth [millimeter]. Flow Result File : D:\MIKESHEModelruns\Regulated\July_3\Regulated__30-station_DDC_Nov27_08.she - Result Files\Regulated__30-station_DDC_ Title : Text : 31 5-May-09 Water Balance-Saulteaux River (1961-1981) Total Error 187 Precipitation 12704 Evapotranspiration 9364 Snow-Storage change 125 0 Canopy-Storage change OL-Storage change 0 Boundary flow 21 OL->rive r/MOUSE 1828 173 UZ-Storage change -68 Infilt. incl. Evap Base flow to River 1657 0 0 1606 59 SZ-Storage change Boundary flow 3 -114 Accumulated w aterbalance from 1/02/1961 12:00:00 PM to 3/07/1982 12:00:00 PM. Data type : Storage depth [millimeter]. Flow Result File : D:\MIKESHEModelruns\Natural\July_3\Natural__30-station_DDC_Nov27_08_60-04.she - Result Files\Natural__30-station_DDC_Nov27_08_60-04 Title : Text : 32 5-May-09 Simulated Water Balance-Swan RiveRiverr ((19841984-2004) Total Error 129 Precipitation 11930 Evapotranspiration 8382 Snow-Storage change 239 19 Canopy-Storage change OL-Storage change 0 Boundary flow 34 OL->river/MOUSE 2588 174 UZ-Storage change -28 Infilt. incl. Evap Base flow to River 1090 0 0 1061 51 SZ-Storage change Boundary flow 10 -81 Accumulated w aterbalance from 1/09/1984 12:00:00 PM to 29/12/2004 12:00:00 PM. Data type : Storage depth [millimeter]. Flow Result File : D:\MIKESHEModelruns\Regulated\July_3\Regulated__30-station_DDC_Nov27_08.she - Result Files\Regulated__30-station_DDC_Nov27_08 Title : Text : 33 5-May-09 Simulated Water Balance-Swan RRiveriver ((19611961-1981) Total Error 178 Precipitation 13711 Evapotranspiration 8815 Snow-Storage change 346 0 Canopy-Storage change OL-Storage change 0 Boundary flow 26 OL->rive r/MOUSE 3649 256 UZ-Storage change -41 Infilt. incl. Evap Base flow to River 1488 0 0 1543 29 SZ-Storage change Boundary flow 4 -173 Accumulated w aterbalance from 1/02/1961 12:00:00 PM to 3/07/1982 12:00:00 PM. Data type : Storage depth [millimeter]. Flow Result File : D:\MIKESHEModelruns\Natural\July_3\Natural__30-station_DDC_Nov27_08_60-04.she - Result Files\Natural__30-station_DDC_Nov27_08_60-04 Title : Text : 34 5-May-09 Hypothetical Scenario Analysis Comparison of Water Levels at Lesser Slave Lake Weir at 575.5 m (Existing) and Weir at 575.8 m (Hypothetical) 579 578.5 Existing Weir at 575.5 m Weir at 575.8 578 577.5 577 576.5 576 575.5 575 6/06/1988 1/06/1989 27/05/1990 22/05/1991 16/05/1992 11/05/1993 6/05/1994 1/05/1995 25/04/1996 20/04/1997 15/04/1998 10/04/1999 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 0:00 35 5-May-09 Hypothetical Scenario Analysis Contd.
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