GRADUATE RESEARCH SERIES PHD DISSERTATION Publication Series of UNU-EHS vol. 5 UNU-EHS Copyright UNU-EHS 2012 The views expressed in this ISBN: 978-3-939923-56-5 Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 10 Cover Photo: iStockphoto publication are those of the e-ISBN: 978-3-939923-57-2 53113 Bonn, Germany Cover Design: Andrea Wendeler author(s). Publication does ISSN: 2077-737X Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200 Layout: Leppelt Grafik & Druck not imply endorsement by Printed at Druckerei Fax: + 49-228-815-0299 Copy Editor: Anchor English UNU-EHS or the United Paffenholz, Bonn, Germany e-mail: [email protected] Proofreading: Katharina Brach Nations University of any May 2012 www.ehs.unu.edu of the views expressed. 250 print run This dissertation was first published at http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/2010/2227/2227.htm in July 2010. For publication in the UNU-EHS Graduate Research Series, the document was slightly revised.. II About the author Denis Chang Seng is currently working with the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) in the scope of a collaborative project with the German Committee for Disaster Reduc- tion (DKKV) focusing on adaptive Disaster Risk Reduc- tion (DRR) in the light of climate change. Earlier he provided expertise knowledge to DKKV and the United Denis Chang Seng Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) towards a report on “Emerging Challenges for Early Warning Systems” in the context of climate change and urbanization. Denis Chang Seng is a specialist in the areas of climate science, climate change adaptation (CCA), in- stitutions and governance of disaster risk preparedness and early warning systems (EWSs). He completed his doctoral degree from the depart- ment of Geography, Mathematics and Natural Science Faculty at Bonn University, Germany in July 2010 as part of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warn- ing System (GITEWS) project as a PhD researcher at UNU-EHS. Previous to UNU-EHS, Dr Chang Seng was a national expert consultant in the Seychelles with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) working in the areas of climate variability and climate change scenario assessments, CCA in the water sector, EWS and disaster management. Denis was senior mete- orologist/climatologist prior to assuming the position of acting Director at the National Meteorological Services, Policy, Planning and Services of the Ministry of Environ- ment and Natural Resources in the Seychelles. Disaster Risk Preparedness The Role of Risk Governance, Multi-Institutional Arrangements and Polycentric Frameworks for a Resilient Tsumani Early Warning System in Indonesia Denis Chang Seng In cooperation with This dissertation was conducted within the framework of the GITEWS project. www.gitews.de Acknowledgement IV Acknowledgement I would like to express my deep and sincere gratitude to my first supervisor, Prof Dr Hans-George Bohle for being an excellent listener, for his encouragement, and most of all for his wide knowledge and academic guidance and support throughout my entire PhD. I am also deeply grateful to my second supervisor, Prof Jürgen Pohl who also gave important advice and academic feedback on my PhD. Very special thanks to Prof Janos Bogardi for his advice, excellent academic comments and very detailed corrections to some of the key chapters of my PhD. I also wish to express my warm and sincere thanks to Dr Juan Carlos Villagrán for his supervision and assistance, particularly in drafting the first PhD proposal, followed by Dr Dusan Sakulski as my second supervisor, and finally Dr Jörn Birkmann as my third supervi- sor at UNU-EHS during the last three years. I also warmly thank my PhD friends Nishara Fernando, who provided important comments and feedback on some of the chapters, and Jonatan Lassa for his assistance and important input towards this PhD research. In Indonesia, I am deeply grateful to the many people who facilitated my work and provided me with their kind-hearted assistance. Special thanks to Volker Stapke, Nurlina Damawan and Fenno Brunken. I also extend my thanks to all the actors in Indonesia for their cooperation and valuable assistance in this PhD re- search. I am thankful to the GITEWS project for funding my PhD research and to UNU-EHS for the administration and provision of the excellent working environ- ment at the UN Campus in Bonn. I owe my most sincere gratitude to Prof Torsten Schlurmann, the first person with whom I discussed the possibility of doing a PhD at UNU-EHS in Bonn, Germany. Very special thanks go to Evalyne Katabaro and Dr Thomas Zschocke for their administrative support and advice throughout this research. I also would like to take this opportunity to thank Mr. Christopher Kennard from Anchor English in UK for proofreading services. My deepest sincere thanks are dedicated to my wife, Bharaty, for providing the mental support, advice and assistance on a daily basis that enabled me to succeed in this very challenging endeavour. In the Seychelles, I thank my family for support- ing me, and my son Shane for his understanding of the importance of reaching this milestone. Finally, I dedicate this PhD work to my son, Deevahn. V Foreword Foreword EWSs are a major tool of DRR and CCA to extreme events. EWSs encompass tech- nical measures, such as hazard detection tools and technical installations for warn- ing communication; however, these systems also need to address the so-called “Last Mile”. That means EWSs have to deal with people at risk, their level of pre- paredness and different response capacities. In the broader context of the GITEWS project, Denis Chang Seng deals in his dissertation with the key issue on how to improve the resilience of coastal com- munities exposed to tsunami through EWS governance. In this regard he examines systems of governance, their architecture and actor-agent perspectives, concen- trating on the development of a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) in Indone- sia. He compares the development of TEWS at the local level using case studies in West Sumatra and Bali. A key part of his dissertation focuses on the question on how selected attributes of governance and institutions function and how these in- fluence early warning and preparedness processes. Furthermore, he also examines on how to enhance the capacity of different institutional arrangements to promote preparedness and resilience, especially in the light of early warning. Institutional arrangements and governance are viewed as critical cross-cutting themes in DRR, yet there is a lack of systematic approaches and sound methodolo- gies to address the role of multi-level and cross-scale governance and institutions in the context of disaster risk preparedness and EWSs. Based on these findings, Denis Chang Seng develops an integrated Early Warning System Governance (EWSG) framework and applies it to the context of tsunami risk in Indonesia. He underscores that polycentric and multi-layered institutions and structures are important to build national resilience and to improve the performance of disas- ter risk preparedness, however, he argues that for the tsunami risks these concepts need to be modified. Overall, the work of Denis Chang Seng is an important contribution to the further enhancement of the discourse around EWSs, risk governance and DRR. The dissertation contributes to an improved knowledge about the role and importance of multi-level governance and institutional vulnerability in disaster risk prepared- ness, particularly in the context of early warning and the so-called “Last Mile”. Finally, the work can also inform CCA strategies, particularly in the context of an expected increase in extreme events. Dr Chang Seng´s research underlines that the development of preparedness and warning strategies have to take into account the broader context of governance and institutional arrangements. Dr Jörn Birkmann Head, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Management and Adaptive Planning Section UNU-EHS Abstract VI Abstract This study examines, discusses and provides insights into tsunami risk resilience through an analysis of systems of governance, their architecture, and actor-agent perspectives, concentrating on the development of a TEWS in Indonesia. The key problem is that so far little attention has been paid to the cross-cutting issues of governance and institutions involved in such an EWS. There is also no integrated and comprehensive framework to enquire into and analyse the role of multi-level and cross-scale governance and institutions in the context of EWSs. Institutional analyses have focused on investigating the governance of natural re- sources and applications in new institutional economics and internal relations. In addition, current efforts are focused on building tsunami resilience based on either the four phase EWS model or the disaster management cycle only, and do not pay adequate attention to socio-ecological resilience attributes, such as adapting and fitting systems according to ecological challenges. The main argument of this study is that an effective and sustainable EWS depends on multi-level governance, institutional arrangements and frameworks that draw on attributes of resilience capacities of managing the uncertain tsunami hazard risk and its interaction with social-ecological systems. Therefore, a comprehensive integrated framework is developed and employed to structure inquiry, and analyse governance and institutions in the context of the TEWS. The study employs a system-architecture-actor-oriented approach based on institutional analyses. It is mainly based on qualitative methodologies and data collected in Jakarta, Bali and Padang, Indonesia during the development of the TEWS in Indonesia. The key findings of this research highlight the underlying conditions that caused the coping capacity to be severely exceeded in the 26 December 2004 tsunami disaster in Indonesia. It argues and outlines the hindering and driving fac- tors for institutional change in disaster risk management (DRM) and points out the challenges in implementing and sustaining an effective TEWS based on prevailing systems of governance in Indonesia.