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The Role of Metamemory in Eyewitness Testimony THE ROLE OF METAMEMORY IN EYEWITNESS TESTIMONY PERFORMANCE By: Renan Benigno Saraiva July 2019 This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of Portsmouth. Supervisors: Professor Lorraine Hope Dr. James Ost Dr. Robert Horselenberg Professor Peter van Koppen This research was supported by a fellowship award from the Erasmus Mundus Joint Doctorate Program The House of Legal Psychology (EMJD-LP) with Framework Partnership Agreement (FPA) 2013-0036 and Specific Grant Agreement (SGA) 2013-0036. GENERAL ABSTRACT Estimating eyewitness memory accuracy is crucial in forensic settings, given the need for efficient investigations and the negative consequences of erroneous testimony. In this thesis, the overarching goal of the research was to test the utility of metamemory assessments as postdictors of eyewitness performance. Metamemory research is essential for a comprehensive understanding of how people use and perceive their own memory, but it has not yet been thoroughly explored in eyewitness settings. In the initial experiments (Experiments 1 and 2), the relationship between self-reports of memory ability and eyewitness identification performance was examined. Specifically, we tested how self-ratings of memory ability and strategies endorsement relate to eyewitness identification accuracy, confidence and over/underconfidence. These experiments provided initial evidence that some metamemory factors are important indicators of eyewitness identification accuracy and confidence, although only assessments of global memory self-efficacy were adopted. Aiming to improve metamemory assessments in eyewitness contexts, a measure tailored specifically to eyewitness testimony settings was developed and tested in Experiment 3) In Experiment 4, the predictive value of general and eyewitness-specific metamemory assessments (EMS) on identification performance for biased and unbiased lineups was investigated. We were specifically interested in possible differential effects between biased and unbiased lineups because other postdictors of identification performance have less diagnostic value in biased lineups. The results of Experiment 4 showed that eyewitness-specific metamemory factors are predictive of identification accuracy for both biased and unbiased lineups. In Experiment 5 an innovative repeated-trials eyewitness identification paradigm was used to examine the relation between metamemory assessments and identification performance, obtaining further evidence for a relation between eyewitness-specific metamemory factors and identification performance. In the final experiment (Experiment 6), the focus is shifted from identification paradigms to an eyewitness free recall paradigm, aiming to elucidate the relation between metamemory and disclosure of information. We summarize the main findings of this novel line of research in the General Discussion, presenting the challenges and prospects facing future eyewitness metamemory research. TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 General Introduction: Examining the Intersection Between Metamemory and Eyewitness Testimony Research ....................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Theoretical Frameworks of Metamemory ........................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Judgments of Confidence and Memory Self-Efficacy ..... Error! Bookmark not defined. Metamemory in Eyewitness Testimony Contexts ............ Error! Bookmark not defined. Eyewitness Confidence-Accuracy Relationship ............... Error! Bookmark not defined. Outline of the Current Thesis ........................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CHAPTER 2 Estimating Eyewitness Identification Performance Using Metamemory Measures and Memory Tests ..................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Metamemory assessments and eyewitness identification performance Error! Bookmark not defined. Memory tests and eyewitness identification performance Error! Bookmark not defined. Experiment 1..................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Experiment 2..................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. General Discussion ........................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CHAPTER 3 Development and validation of the Eyewitness Metamemory Scale .. Error! Bookmark not defined. Materials and Methods ..................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Results .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Discussion ......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CHAPTER 4 Eyewitness Metamemory Predicts Identification Performance in Biased and Unbiased Lineups ................................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Method .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Results .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Discussion ......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CHAPTER 5 Using General and Eyewitness-Specific Metamemory Assessments to Estimate Performance in Multiple Identifications .......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Method .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Results .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Discussion ......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CHAPTER 6 Using Metamemory Measures and Memory Tests to Estimate Eyewitness Free Recall Performance ........................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Method .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Results .............................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Discussion ......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. CHAPTER 7 General Discussion ............................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Summary of the Findings ................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Metamemory and Identification Accuracy ....................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Metamemory and Identification Confidence-Accuracy Relation .... Error! Bookmark not defined. Metamemory and Reporting of Information .................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Objective Tests of Memory Performance ......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Methodological Limitations ............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Implications of this Research ........................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Future Research Directions .............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Conclusion ........................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. REFERENCES ........................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. APPENDICES ......................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES FIGURES Figure 2.1. Posterior distributions of coefficients of metamemory factors as predictors of identification accuracy in Experiment 1 for Choosers (A) and Nonchoosers (B). The shaded area in the distributions represent 95% credible intervals. .................................................. 33 Figure 2.2 Posterior distributions of coefficients of metamemory factors as predictors of identification confidence in Experiment 1 for Choosers (A) and Nonchoosers (B). The shaded area in the distributions represent 95% credible intervals. ...................................... 34 Figure 2.3. Calibration curve for Choosers identification performance by higher and low scorers in MMQ-Strategy (Experiment 1). The diagonal dotted grey line represents perfect calibration. ........................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 2.4. Inferential confidence intervals of calibration statistics for high and low scorers in each metamemory measure in Experiment 1. ................................................................. 36 Figure 2.5. Posterior distributions of coefficients of metamemory factors as predictors of identification accuracy in Experiment 2 for Choosers (A) and Nonchoosers (B). The shaded area in the distributions represent 95% credible intervals. .................................................. 40 Figure 2.6. Posterior distributions of coefficients of metamemory factors as predictors of identification confidence in Experiment 2 for Choosers (A) and Nonchoosers (B). The shaded area in the distributions represent 95% credible intervals. ...................................... 40 Figure 2.7. Calibration curve for Choosers identification performance by higher and low scorers in MMQ-Strategy (Experiment 2). The diagonal dotted grey line represents
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