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Yearbook 2020 Go for Your Deal We’Ll Deal with the Risks YEARBOOK 2020 GO FOR YOUR DEAL WE’LL DEAL WITH THE RISKS Count on Credendo to cover your risks worldwide. We are a European trade credit insurance group, present across the continent, offering a wide range of fl exible solutions: > Belgian export credit agency services; > Whole turnover short-term credit insurance; > Single risk; > Excess of loss; > Top-up cover; > Surety; > Financial guarantees; > Reinsurance. Discover our tailor-made solutions and worldwide risk analyses on www.credendo.com Turning uncertainties into opportunities 02CRE17022_Wave3_AD_Port_297x210_UK.indd 1 31/05/2018 16:43 Berne Union 2020 About ABOUT Berne Union Publications Production Credits The Berne Union publishes a regular digital industry newsletter, and print periodicals in the Executive editor Spring and Autumn, as well as interim reports on Paul Heaney, Berne Union industry research and statistics. Contributing editor ‘The BUlletin’ is a bi-monthly newsletter digest Katharine Morton, TXF of news, views and statistics providing a window into the industry for business partners across the Production editor world of trade and export finance. John Smith, TXF Our print periodicals curate thought pieces and high-level commentary from industry Content planning leaders, presented alongside the Berne Union’s Vinco David, Berne Union data on new commitments, exposure, claims Paul Heaney, Berne Union and recoveries in export credit and investment Katharine Morton, TXF insurance. Dan Sheriff, TXF Cover design About the Berne Union Constantina Christophide, TXF The International Union of Credit and Investment Insurers (Berne Union) is an international not-for- For advertising enquiries profit trade association, representing the global please contact export credit and investment insurance industry. Alex Sheriff, Senior Our mission is to actively facilitate cross-border Relationship Manager trade by supporting international acceptance [email protected] of sound principles in export credit and foreign investment. This is achieved by providing a forum for professional exchange, sharing of expertise and networking among members, as well as through Copyright © 2020 Berne Union. engagement in collaborative projects with other All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stakeholders from across the wider trade finance stored, or transmitted in any form industry. or by any medium without the prior Collectively, our members provide payment permission of the Berne Union. The views and opinions expressed risk protection for approximately 13% of world by independent authors and annual cross-border trade in goods and services contributors to this publication, (amounting to $2.5 trillion annually) and since the including advertisements, are the sole responsibility of the authors and do start of the global financial crisis in 2008, have not represent the views or opinions paid out more than $60 billion in claims. of the Berne Union. International Union of Credit & Investment Insurers 1st Floor Thanet House 231-232 The Strand London WC2R 1DA United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)20 7841 1110 Fax: +44 (0)20 7430 0375 1 www.berneunion.org Berne Union 2020 Contents 1 Introduction Berne Union Who’s Who in 2020/21 6 Perspectives from the ECA Committee 22 Elected officials, secretariat and committees Robert Suter, ECA Committee Chair and Head of International Relations & Business Policy, SERV and The Presidents’ interview: Chain Reaction 13 Irene Gambelli, ECA Committee Vice Chair and Senior Michal Ron, Chief International Officer, SACE and 44th Advisor, International Relations, SACE President, Berne Union and Beatriz Reguero, COO State Account Business, CESCE and 43rd President, Berne Perspectives from the MLT Committee 27 Union Dominique Meessen, MLT Committee Chair and Head of Reinsurance, CREDENDO and Andrew Underwood, MLT Berne Union mission: Fast forward 2020 16 Committee Vice Chair and Chief Underwriting Officer – Vinco David, Secretary General, Berne Union Specialty, UK and Lloyd’s, AXA XL Perspectives from the Short Term Committee 19 Perspectives from the Prague Club Committee 29 Julian Hudson, ST Committee Chair and Global Head Imaad Al-Harthy, PCC Committee Chair and General of Trade Credit, CHUBB and Arturs Karlsons, ST Manager Sales, CREDIT OMAN and Martina Jus, Committee Manager, Berne Union PCC Committee Vice Chair and Executive Director – International Affairs, Export Credit Insurance, EU Funds and Financial Instruments, HBOR Berne Union data snapshot 2020H1 32 2 Mega trends Boost supply chain resilience through advanced TRADE capabilities 47 Stefan Schrauf, Operations and Supply Chain Europe Mega trends interrupted? 38 Partner, PwC Germany David Neckar, Client Director, Willis Towers Watson Financial Solutions; Beatriz Reguero, 43rd Berne Union Top geopolitics risks for 2021: Expect unique President and COO, State Account, CESCE; Gabriel Buck, turbulence 51 Managing Director, GKB Ventures; Jean-François Lambert, Dr Nicholas Redman, Director of Analysis, Oxford Founder and Managing Partner, Lambert Commodities; Analytica Rudolf Putz, Deputy Director Financial Institutions – Head Trade Facilitation Programme (TFP), EBRD WTO on the enhanced need for trade finance cooperation 54 The 2021 outlook: Climbing out of a deep hole 43 Marc Auboin, Counsellor at WTO Glen Hodgson, Chief Economist, International Financial Consulting Risk outlook 2021 56 John Lorié, Chief Economist, Atradius Credit Insurance Trade policy under the Biden administration 45 and Alexis Garatti, Head of Robert Kahn, Director of Global Strategy and Global Macroeconomics, Euler Hermes Macro, Eurasia Group 3 Market trends COVID-19 impact on the private credit insurance market 82 COVID-19 IMPACT Fabrizio Mazza, Managing Director, Global Public Agency Leader, Credit Specialties, Marsh JLT Specialty The COVID-19 stress test: Impact and response of and Abbey Sturrock, Senior Vice President, Deputy the export credit insurance industry 63 Global Public Agency Leader, Credit Specialties, Marsh Paul Heaney, Associate Director, Berne Union JLT Specialty Credit insurance guarantee arrangements during Early lessons from managing the crisis: The need and the pandemic 71 feasibility of rethinking the public versus private model 87 Robert Nijhout, Executive Director, ICISA Jérôme Pezé, CEO and Founder, Tinubu Square Trends in export credit insurance during times of crisis 73 ICIEC works its way through the pandemic 90 Jonathan Skovbro Steenberg, Economic Research Oussama Kaissi, CEO, ICIEC Analyst, Berne Union Managing credit risk post COVID-19: Remember the Crisis and recovery mode: How is the CPRI market five-‘C’s 93 2 responding to COVID-19? 78 Lillian Labbat, Global Head Credit & Political Risk, Zurich Sian Aspinall, Managing Director, BPL Global Insurance Berne Union 2020 CONTENTS 3 Market trends continued Is COVID-19 the final blow to globalisation? 95 Corporate views: Staying match fit 114 Jean-François Lambert, Founder and Managing Partner, Andreas Back, Senior Manager, Financial Services, Lambert Commodities Wärtsilä Counting the cost in the medium term CPRI market 97 Corporate views: Credit insurers, your exporters Julian Spiegel, Senior Reinsurance Underwriter, Credit, need you 116 Surety and Political Risk, Navigators, a brand of The David Avram, Trade & Export Finance Director at Fives Hartford REGIONS CLAIMS Export Credit Developments at the OECD 118 Berne Union claims perspective 100 Silvia Gavorníková, Director International Relations, Laszlo Varnai, Associate Director, Berne Union EXIMBANKA SR and Chairperson of the ECG Claims and recoveries in a disrupted market 103 A new deal for the OECD Arrangement? 120 David Chadwick, Partner, Kennedys and Naomi Vary, Pekka Karkovirta, Chairman, Participants to the Partner, RPC Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits and Vice President, International Relations, Finnvera How is COVID-19 affecting capital structures? 105 By Valerio Ranciaro, Director General, SACE SRV Developments in export finance in Latin America 122 Pedro Carriço, Founding partner of T|X|P Partners and ECA, Bureau of Experts FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS Building on the halal brand with ECI Islamic 125 Pandemic recovery calls for public/private Massimo Falcioni, CEO and Zishan Iqbal, Director of collaboration 107 Murabaha Solutions, Etihad Credit Insurance (ECI) Dan Riordan, President and Chief Underwriting Officer for Political Risk, Credit and Bond at AXA XL Venezuela: A Brief Update 127 David H Anderson, Principal, Anderson Risk Consultants Setting long term positive strategies for ECAs 111 Valentino Gallo, Founding Partner, Javalyn Partners Buyer information in Africa 130 Vinco David, Secretary General, Berne Union 4 Future trends DIGITAL TRADE SUSTAINABILITY Time to double down on trade digitisation? On Working towards a commitment to net zero 153 counting virtual beans 134 Astrid Bronswijk (Dutch Ministry of Finance), Ranya Katharine Morton, Head of Trade, Treasury & Risk, TXF Gabriel (EDC), Thomas Hale (Oxford University) and Andreas Klasen (Offenburg University) Digitalisation in trade: The situation report 138 John Bugeja, Managing Director at Trade Advisory Sustainability: A key part of our due diligence work 158 Network Kamil Zabielski, Head of Sustainability at GIEK ECA support for software exports: An analysis 142 Harnessing Asia’s offshore winds 160 Didem Erdoğan, Project Loans and Trade Finance MeiYean Lim, Senior Underwriter for AXA XL’s Global Specialist at Turk Exim Political Risk Legal perspectives on blockchain technologies for Does the Paris Agreement
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