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World Bank Document ReportNo. 21104-BD Bangladesh ClimateChange and SustainableDevelopment Public Disclosure Authorized December 19, 2000 RuralDevelopment Unit SouthAsia Region Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank CURRENCY AND EQUIVALENT UNITS (March 2001) Bangladeshi Taka 1 = US$0.0183993 US$1 = Tk. 53.85 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter (m) = 1.1 yards (yd) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.61 mile (mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres (ac) UNITS cr crore (10 million) ha hectare km kilometers kg kilogram lakh 100,000 mt metric ton qtl quintal (100 kg) Tk Taka Vice President Mieko Nishimizu Country Director Frederick T. Temple Sector Director Ridwan Ali Task Leader Sarwat Chowdhury Abbreviations ADAB Association of DevelopmentAgencies in Bangladesh ADB Asian DevelopmentBank ALGAS Asia Least-costGreenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy ARMP Agricultural Research ManagementProject BARC Bangladesh AgricultureResearch Council BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies BEMP Bangladesh EnvironmentManagement Program BIDS Bangladesh Institute of DevelopmentStudies BIWTA Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority BUET Bangladesh Universityof Engineeringand Technology BUP Bangladesh UnnayanParishad BWDB Bangladesh Water DevelopmentBoard CBO Community Based Organization CCC Climate Change Committee CCIA Climate Change Impact Assessment CEARS Centre for Environmentaland ResourceStudies CEN Coalition of EnvironmentalNGOs DAE Department for AgricultureExtension DMB Disaster ManagementBureau DF Departmnentof Forest DOF Department of Fisheries EGIS Environmentand Geographical InformationSystems EIA EnvironmentalImpact Assessment ENSO El Niflo SouthernOscillation FAP Flood Action Plan FCDI Flood Control Drainage and Irrigation FEJB Forum of EnvironmentalJournalists of Bangladesh GBM Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna GCM General CirculationModel GDA Ganges Development Area GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global EnviromnentFacility GNP Gross National Product GOB Government of Bangladesh HTW Hand Tubewell HYV High-yield Variety ICDDRB InternationalCentre for Diarrhoeal DiseaseResearch ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management IPCC IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change IRRI InternationalRice Research Institute IWRM Integrated Water ResourcesManagement LGED Local Government Engineering Department Mha Million Hectares Mint Million Metric Tons MoEF Ministry of Environment and Forests MOI Ministry of Information iii MPO Master Plan Organization NARS National Agricultural Research System NEC National EnvironmentCouncil NEMAP National EnvironmentalManagement Plan NGO Non GovernmentOrganizations NWMP National Water ManagementPlan NWRC National Water ResourcesCouncil O&M Operation and Management PC Planning Commission PET Potential Evapo-Transpiration PWD Public Works Department RA Resource Analysis REB Rural ElectrificationBoard SBCP Sundarbans BiodiversityConservation Project SEMP SustainableEnvironmental Management Programme SIA Social Impact Assessment SPARRSO Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization STW Shallow Tubewell SWMC Surface Water Modeling Centre TCF Trillion Cubic Feet TGTDL Titas Gas Transmission and DistributionCo. Ltd. UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change WARPO Water ResourcesPlanning Organization WRI World Resources Institute GLOSSARY Aman Rice crop harvested in November-December(see B. Aman and T. Aman). Aus Summer rice planted in March-April and harvested in July-August. Boro Rice crop planted in December-February,and harvested in April-June; mostly HYV with higher yield potential than the local varieties. B. Aman Broadcast aman; a rice crop usually planted in March/ April under dry land conditions, but in areas liable to deep flooding. Also known as deepwater rice. Harvested October to December. All varieties are highly sensitive to day length. Beel Small area of standing water round the year. Char Land formed by river activity due to sedimentationand silt accretion Haor Extensive low lying area subjectto seasonal flooding HYV High yielding variety; introducedvarieties developed though formal breeding programs. HYV's have a higher yield potential than local varieties but require correspondingly high inputs of fertilizer and soil moisture to reach full yield potential. Kharif Cropping season comprising an early part (pre-monsoon and early monsoon), and a later part (second half of monsoon and early post-monsoon). Kharif I The first part of the kharif season (April to June). Rainfall is variable and temperatures are high. The main crops are aus, summervegetables and pulses. Broadcast aman and jute are planted. iv Kharif2 The second part of the kharif season (June to October), characterized by heavy rains and floods. T. aman is the major crop grown during this season. Harvesting of jute takes place. Fruits and summer vegetablesmay be grown on high land. Khas Government owned land Rabi Dry cropping season including the cool winter months, and the hot pre-monsoon months (November to March). Sal Forest Forest area mostly covered by Shorea robusta,a tropical moist deciduous species. Shutkee Dried fish T. Aman Transplanted aman; a rice crop planted usually in July/August, during the monsoon in areas liable to maximum flood depth of about 0.5 m. Harvested in November/ December. Local varieties are highly sensitive to day length whereas modern varieties are insensitive or slightly sensitive. Acknowledgement The final report was prepared by the SouthAsia Rural Development(SASRD) Unit of the World Bank. The work was carried out by Sarwat Chowdhury under the general direction of Rashid Faruqee. They also prepared the executive summary of this report. The study preparation went through several phases. In the first phase, a contract was given to Stratus Consulting Inc. (specifically Joel Smith), and the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS). Important contribution was received from the International Global Change Institute of the University of Waikato, New Zealand (including analysis of changes in flood risks in Bangladesh). This phase focused on summarizing available knowledge with respect to the potential impacts of climate change in Bangladesh, and identified vulnerable sectors. The draft aimed at building awareness, and laid the ground work for the identification of pragmatic measures to reduce Bangladesh' vulnerability to possible climate change. In 1999, Resource Analysis group was contracted to revise the report. The revision included latest developments in the relevant sectors. This phase of course incorporated specific implications of the identified impacts for development policies and programs, and practical recommendationsfor actions to be taken in Bangladesh. Resource Analysis group (consisting of Rob Koudstaal, Saskia Werners and Bushra Nishat) collaborated with Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (specifically Ahsan Uddin Ahmed), and BCAS (specificallySaleemul Huq and Atiq Rahman) for completing the work. An in-country working group discussions was held on June 28, 1999, followed by submission of a second draft report by November 2,1999. The latest draft was then substantially revised and restructured at the SASRD. This revised version was discussed at a review workshop on December 30, 1999 in Dhaka. Two additional review workshops were held in 2000 with two different group of stakeholders: one on May 8, and the other on May 25. At the suggestion of GOB Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests, a green cover version of the report was reviewed at a meeting at MOEF on October 19, 2000. The final report reflects the comments received from these consultative meetings. Other staff members of the SASRD team particularly S.A.M. Rafiquzzaman, Imtiazuddin Ahmad and Tajul Islam provided useful suggestions. Robert T. Watson and Walter Garvey were peer reviewers of the final draft. Mieko Nishimizu is the Vice President of South Asia Region. Frederick T. Temple is the Country Director, Ridwan Ali is the Sector Director for SASRD. v Bangladesh POVERTY and SOCIALINDICATORS Bangladesh South Low- Asia income 1999 Population, mid-year (millions 127.6 1,329 2,417 GNP per capita (Atlas method, US$) 370 440 410 GNP (Atlas method, US$ billions) 47.0 581 988 Average annual growth, 1993-99 Population (%l) 1.6 1.9 1.9 Labor force (%l) 2.1 2.3 2.3 Most recent estimate (latest year available, 1993-99) Poverty (% ofpopulation below nationalpoverty line) 36 Urban population (% of total population) 21 28 31 Life expectancy at birth (years) 61 62 60 Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 57 75 77 Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) 68 51 43 Access to improved water source (% ofpopulation) 84 77 64 Illiteracy (% ofpopulation age 15+) 47 46 39 Gross primary enrollment (% of school-agepopulation) 96 100 96 Male 93 110 102 Female 100 90 86 KEY ECONOMICRATIOS and LONG-TERMTRENDS 1979 1989 1998 1999 GDP (US$ billions) 15.6 27.0 44.1 45.7 Gross domestic investment/GDP 14.9 17.2 21.6 22.2 Exports of goods and services/GDP 4.5 5.7 13.3 13.2 Gross domestic savings/GDP 5.9 9.6 16.7 16.7 Gross national savings/GDP 10.5 13.1 20.9 20.9 Current account balance/GDP -1.8 -5.1 -1.2 -1.9 Interest payments/GDP 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 Total debt/GDP 21.1 41.1 37.1 37.2 Total debt service/exports 26.6 21.3 10.2 10.4 Present value of debt/GDP .. .. 22.9 Present value of debt/exports .. .. 150.7 1979-89 1989-99 1998 1999 1999-03 (average annual growth) GDP 4.4 4.8 5.2 4.8 5.1 GNP per capita 2.0 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.5 Exports of goods and services 6.1 14.2 12.4 6.0 4.9 vi STRUCTUREof
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