DOCSLIB.ORG

Consumptive and Nonconsumptive Effects of Predators on Metacommunities of Competing Prey

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Consumptive and Nonconsumptive Effects of Predators on Metacommunities of Competing Prey Ecology, 89(9), 2008, pp. 2426–2435 Ó 2008 by the Ecological Society of America CONSUMPTIVE AND NONCONSUMPTIVE EFFECTS OF PREDATORS ON METACOMMUNITIES OF COMPETING PREY 1,2,9 3 4 5 6 JOHN L. ORROCK, JONATHAN H. GRABOWSKI, JELENA H. PANTEL, SCOTT D. PEACOR, BARBARA L. PECKARSKY, 7 8 ANDREW SIH, AND EARL E. WERNER 1National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Suite 300, Santa Barbara, California 93101 USA 2Department of Biology, Washington University, Saint Louis, Missouri 63130 USA 3Gulf of Maine Research Institute, 350 Commercial Street, Portland, Maine 04101 USA 4Section of Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712 USA 5Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105 USA 6Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA 7Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, California 95616 USA 8Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 USA Abstract. Although predators affect prey both via consumption and by changing prey migration behavior, the interplay between these two effects is rarely incorporated into spatial models of predator–prey dynamics and competition among prey. We develop a model where generalist predators have consumptive effects (i.e., altering the likelihood of local prey extinction) as well as nonconsumptive effects (altering the likelihood of colonization) on spatially separated prey populations (metapopulations). We then extend this model to explore the effects of predators on competition among prey. We find that generalist predators can promote persistence of prey metapopulations by promoting prey colonization, but predators can also hasten system-wide extinction by either increasing local extinction or reducing prey migration. By altering rates of prey migration, predators in one location can exert remote control over prey dynamics in another location via predator-mediated changes in prey flux. Thus, the effect of predators may extend well beyond the proportion of patches they visit. In the context of prey metacommunities, predator-mediated shifts in prey migration and mortality can EATURE F shift the competition–colonization trade-off among competing prey, leading to changes in the prey community as well as changes in the susceptibility of prey species to habitat loss. Consequently, native prey communities may be susceptible to invasion not only by exotic prey species that experience reduced amounts of mortality from resident predators, but also by exotic PECIAL prey species that exhibit strong dispersal in response to generalist native predators. Ultimately, S our work suggests that the consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of generalist predators may have strong, yet potentially cryptic, effects on competing prey capable of mediating coexistence, fostering invasion, and interacting with anthropogenic habitat alteration. Key words: behavior; competition; consumptive effects; habitat loss; invasion; metacommunity; metapopulation; migration; nonconsumptive effects; predator–prey interactions. INTRODUCTION among species (Holyoak et al. 2005). Colonization and Spatial dynamics affect the persistence of populations extinction are key parameters of both metapopulation (Levins 1969, Hanski and Gilpin 1997), alters the and metacommunity dynamics (Hanski and Gilpin 1997, outcome of competition (e.g., the competition–coloni- Holyoak et al. 2005). Although often treated as fixed zation trade-off [Nee and May 1992, Tilman 1994, and intrinsic in metacommunity models (Mouquet et al. Amarasekare 2003]), mediates the stability of predator– 2005), substantial evidence suggests that colonization prey interactions (Holt 1997, Melian and Bascompte and extinction are subject to alteration by biotic 2002, Mouquet et al. 2005), and thus has important interactions (Wooster and Sih 1995, Reed and Levine implications for ecological invasions (Fagan et al. 2002) 2005, Resetarits et al. 2005). Such interaction-mediated and conservation, e.g., minimum viable metapopula- changes in extinction and colonization are likely to be tions (Hanski et al. 1996). Recently, the emerging especially relevant in the context of metacommunities, paradigm of metacommunity dynamics has stressed the because metacommunities explicitly contain multiple interplay between spatial dynamics and interactions species (Holyoak et al. 2005). Predators are likely to affect prey colonization and extinction by consuming prey (‘‘consumptive effects’’) as Manuscript received 26 June 2007; revised 27 September well as by causing changes in prey activity, behavior, 2007; accepted 7 November 2007. Corresponding Editor: S. and development (‘‘nonconsumptive effects’’; see Plate Naeem. For reprints of this Special Feature, see footnote 1, p. 2414. 1); empirical data suggest that both effects are important 9 E-mail: [email protected] components of predator–prey interactions (Werner and 2426 September 2008 NONCONSUMPTIVE PREDATOR EFFECTS 2427 PLATE 1. Drunella doddsi (Ephemeroptera: Ephemerellidae) is one of several invertebrate predators on Baetis bicaudatus (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) in Rocky Mountain streams of western Colorado, USA. Other invertebrate predators include stoneflies (Plecoptera) and caddisflies (Trichoptera). Baetis has evolved numerous behaviors and life-history strategies to reduce consumption by both invertebrate and vertebrate (Salmonidae) predators, resulting in non-consumptive effects on prey fitness that often exceed those of consumption (Peckarsky and McIntosh 1998). Photo credit: A. McIntosh. S Hall 1988, Lima and Dill 1990, Brown et al. 1999, dynamics are driven by specialist predators explicitly PECIAL Werner and Peacor 2003, Preisser et al. 2005, Stanko- linked to prey populations. Taken together, these wich and Blumstein 2005). Metacommunity models of models suggest that predator-mediated changes in prey consumptive effects (Holt 1997, Nee et al. 1997, migration can alter prey dynamics, and predators can F Bascompte and Sole 1998, Diehl et al. 2000, Swihart et alter the outcome of interactions among indirectly EATURE al. 2001, Melian and Bascompte 2002) have shown that competing prey. Given the theoretical importance of predator-mediated changes in prey extinction can have predator-mediated shifts in colonization for single prey important consequences for the dynamics of specialist species dynamics, and the prevalence of empirical predators and their prey. In the metacommunity evidence for nonconsumptive alteration of prey migra- context, a key nonconsumptive effect involves the tion, a framework is clearly needed to unify spatial influence of predators on prey movement and migration. dynamics and the consumptive and nonconsumptive For example, predators may alter prey colonization via components of predator-mediated shifts in competitive habitat selection (Krivan and Sirot 2002, Resetarits et al. dynamics. 2005, Abrams et al. 2007) or by dispersal behavior (Sih We extend previous metacommunity models of and Wooster 1994, Wooster and Sih 1995, Reed and predator–prey dynamics by incorporating both con- Levine 2005). To this end, a handful of metacommunity sumptive and nonconsumptive effects of predators. Our models have examined how predator-mediated changes work is a departure from previous models in that it in prey behavior affect the dynamics between specialist incorporates both consumptive and nonconsumptive predators and a single prey species (Holt 1997, Diehl et effects among prey as well as direct competition among al. 2000, Prakash and de Roos 2002). These studies have prey for patches of habitat. We model generalist shown that the nonconsumptive effects of specialist predators whose dynamics are not dependent upon the predators on single prey species can be counterintuitive, prey they consume. We use this approach because such such as potentially promoting prey abundance and generalist predators may constitute the bulk of predator persistence (e.g., Prakash and de Roos 2002, Reed and biomass in many systems (Sih et al. 1985, Holt and Levine 2005). Lawton 1994, Swihart et al. 2001), suggesting that their When extended to include predators and competing consumptive and nonconsumptive effects may be prey (Holt 1997, Melian and Bascompte 2002), meta- important for affecting the dynamics of competing prey. community models clearly demonstrate that the spatial First, we develop a model of spatial interactions dynamics of predator and prey can alter the nature of among generalist predators and a single prey species. metacommunity dynamics. In these models, prey com- Upon this foundation, we add competitive interactions pete indirectly via apparent competition (Holt 1997, among prey to examine how predator-mediated changes Melian and Bascompte 2002) and asymmetrical intra- in prey colonization and extinction affect the dynamics guild predation (Melian and Bascompte 2002), and their of prey metacommunities. Finally, we extend our model 2428 JOHN L. ORROCK ET AL. Ecology, Vol. 89, No. 9 to examine how habitat destruction affects prey prey (Stephens and Krebs 1986, Swihart et al. 2001) and communities subjected to generalist predators. We show may not be spatially aggregated near prey (Walde and that generalist predators can alter the dynamics of prey Murdoch 1988). Moreover, a review of empirical studies extinction and persistence, change the outcome of suggests that foragers often encounter their prey at competition among prey, and interact with
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Long-Term Declines of a Highly Interactive Urban Species
    Biodiversity and Conservation (2018) 27:3693–3706 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-018-1621-z ORIGINAL PAPER Long‑term declines of a highly interactive urban species Seth B. Magle1 · Mason Fidino1 Received: 26 March 2018 / Revised: 9 August 2018 / Accepted: 24 August 2018 / Published online: 1 September 2018 © Springer Nature B.V. 2018 Abstract Urbanization generates shifts in wildlife communities, with some species increasing their distribution and abundance, while others decline. We used a dataset spanning 15 years to assess trends in distribution and habitat dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a highly interactive species, in urban habitat remnants in Denver, CO, USA. Both available habitat and number of prairie dog colonies declined steeply over the course of the study. However, we did observe new colonization events that correlated with habitat connectivity. Destruc- tion of habitat may be slowing, but the rate of decline of prairie dogs apparently remained unafected. By using our estimated rates of loss of colonies throughout the study, we pro- jected a 40% probability that prairie dogs will be extirpated from this area by 2067, though that probability could range as high as 50% or as low as 20% depending on the rate of urban development (i.e. habitat loss). Prairie dogs may fulfll important ecological roles in urban landscapes, and could persist in the Denver area with appropriate management and habitat protections. Keywords Connectivity · Prairie dog · Urban habitat · Interactive species · Habitat fragmentation · Landscape ecology Introduction The majority of the world’s human population lives in urban areas, which represent the earth’s fastest growing ecotype (Grimm et al.
    [Show full text]
  • Why Is the Alpine Flora Comparatively Robust Against Climatic Warming?
    diversity Review Why Is the Alpine Flora Comparatively Robust against Climatic Warming? Christian Körner * and Erika Hiltbrunner Department of Environmental Sciences, Botany, University of Basel, Schönbeinstrasse 6, 4056 Basel, Switzerland; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: The alpine belt hosts the treeless vegetation above the high elevation climatic treeline. The way alpine plants manage to thrive in a climate that prevents tree growth is through small stature, apt seasonal development, and ‘managing’ the microclimate near the ground surface. Nested in a mosaic of micro-environmental conditions, these plants are in a unique position by a close-by neighborhood of strongly diverging microhabitats. The range of adjacent thermal niches that the alpine environment provides is exceeding the worst climate warming scenarios. The provided mountains are high and large enough, these are conditions that cause alpine plant species diversity to be robust against climatic change. However, the areal extent of certain habitat types will shrink as isotherms move upslope, with the potential areal loss by the advance of the treeline by far outranging the gain in new land by glacier retreat globally. Keywords: biodiversity; high-elevation; mountains; phenology; snow; species distribution; treeline; topography; vegetation; warming Citation: Körner, C.; Hiltbrunner, E. Why Is the Alpine Flora Comparatively Robust against 1. Introduction Climatic Warming? Diversity 2021, 13, The alpine world covers a small land fraction, simply since mountains get narrower 383. https://doi.org/10.3390/ with elevation [1]. Globally, 2.6% of the terrestrial area outside Antarctica meets the criteria d13080383 for ‘alpine’ [2,3], a terrain still including a lot of barren or glaciated areas, with the actual plant covered area closer to 2% (an example for the Eastern Alps in [4]).
    [Show full text]
  • Understanding the Ecology of Extinction: Are We Close to the Critical Threshold?
    Ann. Zool. Fennici 40: 71–80 ISSN 0003-455X Helsinki 30 April 2003 © Finnish Zoological and Botanical Publishing Board 2003 Understanding the ecology of extinction: are we close to the critical threshold? Tim G. Benton Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA, UK (e-mail: [email protected]) Received 25 Nov. 2002, revised version received 20 Jan. 2003, accepted 21 Jan. 2003 Benton, T. G. 2003: Understanding the ecology of extinction: are we close to the critical threshold? — Ann. Zool. Fennici 40: 71–80. How much do we understand about the ecology of extinction? A review of recent lit- erature, and a recent conference in Helsinki gives a snapshot of the “state of the art”*. This “snapshot” is important as it highlights what we currently know, the tools avail- able for studying the process of extinction, its ecological correlates, and the theory concerning extinction thresholds. It also highlights that insight into the ecology of extinction can come from areas as diverse as the study of culture, the fossil record and epidemiology. Furthermore, it indicates where the gaps in knowledge and understand- ing exist. Of particular note is the need either to generate experimental data, or to make use of existing empirical data — perhaps through meta-analyses, to test general theory and guide its future development. Introduction IUCNʼs 2002 Red List, a total of 11 167 species are currently known to be threatened (http:// Few would argue that managing natural popu- www.redlist.org/info/tables/table1.html), though lations and their habitats is one of the greatest this is a gross underestimate of the true value, as, challenges for humans in the 21st century.
    [Show full text]
  • Extinction Debt: a Challenge for Biodiversity Conservation
    This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright Author's personal copy Review Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation Mikko Kuussaari1, Riccardo Bommarco2, Risto K. Heikkinen1, Aveliina Helm3, Jochen Krauss4, Regina Lindborg5, Erik O¨ ckinger2, Meelis Pa¨ rtel3, Joan Pino6, Ferran Roda` 6, Constantı´ Stefanescu7, Tiit Teder3, Martin Zobel3 and Ingolf Steffan-Dewenter4 1 Finnish Environment Institute, Research Programme for Biodiversity, P.O. Box 140, FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland 2 Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Box 7044, SE-750 07 Uppsala, Sweden 3 Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Lai St 40, Tartu 51005, Estonia 4 Population Ecology Group, Department of Animal Ecology I, University of Bayreuth, Universita¨ tsstrasse 30, D-95447 Bayreuth, Germany 5 Department of System Ecology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden 6 CREAF (Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications) and Unit of Ecology, Department of Animal Biology, Plant Biology and Ecology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra, Spain 7 Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, Museu de Granollers de Cie` ncies Naturals, Francesc Macia` , 51, E-08402 Granollers, Spain Local extinction of species can occur with a substantial proportion of natural habitats worldwide have been lost delay following habitat loss or degradation.
    [Show full text]
  • False Shades of Green: the Case of Brazilian Amazonian Hydropower
    Energies 2014, 7, 6063-6082; doi:10.3390/en7096063 OPEN ACCESS energies ISSN 1996-1073 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Article False Shades of Green: The Case of Brazilian Amazonian Hydropower James Randall Kahn 1,2,*, Carlos Edwar Freitas 2,3 and Miguel Petrere 4,5 1 Environmental Studies Program/Economics Department, Washington and Lee University, Holekamp Hall 206, Lexington, VA 24450, USA 2 Department of Fishery Science, Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Av. Rodrigo Otávio 3000, Manaus, AM 69077-000, Brazil; E-Mail: [email protected] 3 Department of Biology, Washington and Lee University, Lexington, VA 24450, USA 4 Programa de Pós-graduação em Diversidade Biológica e Conservação (PPGDBC), Centro de Ciências e Tecnologias para a Sustentabilidade (CCTS), Universidade Federal de São Carlos (UFSCar), Rod. João Leme dos Santos, km 110 – Sorocaba, São Paulo 18052-780, Brazil; E-Mail: [email protected] 5 UNISANTA, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Sustentabilidade de Ecossistemas Costeiros e Marinhos, Rua Oswaldo Cruz, 277 (Boqueirão), Santos (SP) 11045-907, Brazil * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-540-458-8036, +1-540-460-1421, +55-92-8114-9305. Received: 30 June 2014; in revised form: 15 August 2014 / Accepted: 1 September 2014 / Published: 16 September 2014 Abstract: The Federal Government of Brazil has ambitious plans to build a system of 58 additional hydroelectric dams in the Brazilian Amazon, with Hundreds of additional dams planned for other countries in the watershed. Although hydropower is often billed as clean energy, we argue that the environmental impacts of this project are likely to be large, and will result in substantial loss of biodiversity, as well as changes in the flows of ecological services.
    [Show full text]
  • Plants & Ecology
    Population structure and distribution of the declining endangered forest plant Chimaphila umbellata by Anna Lundell Plants & Ecology The Department of Ecology, 2014/1 Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Population structure and distribution of the declining endangared forest plant Chimaphila umbellata by Anna Lundell Supervisors: Ove Eriksson & Sara Cousins Plants & Ecology The Department of Ecology, 2014/1 Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University Plants & Ecology The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences Stockholm University S-106 91 Stockholm Sweden © The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences ISSN 1651-9248 Printed by FMV Printcenter Cover: Flowering Chimaphila umbellata. Photo by Margareta Edqvist. Summary The occurrence of the rare forest plant Chimaphila umbellata has decreased with approximately 80 % in Uppland and its decline is also reported for other regions in Sweden. Suggested causes of decline include the increasingly shaded conditions in understory habitats and increased competition from Vaccinium myrtillus and graminoid species. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of various biotic and abiotic conditions on C. umbellata populations with regard to population size, flowering frequency, fruit set and seed production. Conditions analyzed include light inflow, coverage of competitive species, soil nitrogen, continuity of forest cover and soil texture, which were investigated in 38 C. umbellata sites in Uppland and Södermanland, Sweden. Results showed that population size was negatively affected by the coverage of competitive species. Population size was not affected by light availability, but increased shading resulted in a decreased flowering frequency. Fruit set decreased with increasing coverage of competitive species and seed production per capsule decreased with increasing soil nitrogen content.
    [Show full text]
  • Characterizing Extinction Debt Following Habitat Fragmentation Using Neutral Theory
    Characterizing extinction debt following habitat fragmentation using neutral theory Samuel E.D. Thompson1,2, Ryan A. Chisholm1, James Rosindell2 Type of article: Letter Running title: Fragmentation and extinction deBt Corresponding author: Ryan A. Chisholm ([email protected]) Keywords: Biodiversity, extinction deBt, fragmentation, connectivity, habitat loss, spatially explicit, modelling, neutral theory Word Count: 5000 Abstract Word Count: 150 Reference Count: 57 Captions Word Count: Fig. 1 (127), Fig. 2 (84), Fig. 3 (161), Fig. 4 (137), Fig. 5 (94), Fig. 6 (122) Author Contributions: All authors designed the study. SEDT performed simulations and analyses. All authors contriButed to mathematical derivations. All authors wrote the paper. Data accessibility statement: We confirm that, should the manuscript Be accepted, all data supporting the results will be archived on Dryad with the DOI included at the end of the article and the code for analysis will be provided on Bitbucket: https://Bitbucket.org/thompsonsed/extinction_deBt_eco_let. 1 Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, 117543, Singapore 2 Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK 1 Abstract 2 Habitat loss leads to species extinctions, Both immediately and over the long-term as “extinction 3 debt” is repaid. The same quantity of habitat can Be lost in different spatial patterns with varying 4 habitat fragmentation. How this translates to species loss remains an open proBlem requiring an 5 understanding of the interplay Between community dynamics and habitat structure across 6 temporal and spatial scales. Here we develop formulas that characterize extinction deBt in a 7 spatial neutral model after habitat loss and fragmentation.
    [Show full text]
  • Lecture 2 – Species-Area Relations, Neutral Theory And
    Advanced topics in population and community ecology and conservation Lecture 4 Dr. Cristina Banks-Leite [email protected] Outline • Applications of SAR - estimating number of species in areas of different sizes - estimating extinction debt - understanding how communities are structured • Applications of neutral theory - predicting how populations and communities will be affected by area and connectivity • Applications of phyologenetic approaches • Detecting changes before they happen Species extinction • Every decade 10 million species are led to extinction due to habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation • Species-area relationship Species-area curve and Island Biogeography SLOSS – Single Large or Several Small Landscape Ecology High Colonisation Extinction Small Rate Near Large Far Low Low High Number of species Extinction debts and relaxation times Before isolation After isolation After relaxation Atotal Afragment Afragment Afragment Stotal Soriginal Snow Sfragment Relaxation time Brooks et al. 1999 Using SAR to detect extinction debt Kuussaari et al. 2009 TREE The Atlantic Forest of Brazil Ribeiro et al. (2009) SAR entire area SAR portion of area z z SA = cA Sa = ca SAR species loss in A-a S = c(A-a)z A-a Number of species endemic to a S = S – S cAz- c(A-a)z loss A A-a = SAR versus EAR method of estimating extinction rate He and Hubbell 2011 Nature SAR assumptions: species loss is random and directional Island biogeography Species + Area - Terrestrial systems: nestedness Species + Area - Species loss and species gain Species-area relationship: assumptions Species richness is not an informative community metric Species richness = A B D E C F Species indentity ≠ Community changes or “community dissimilarity” • Community composition .
    [Show full text]
  • Preventing Extinctions and Improving Species Conservation Status
    SBSTTA Review Draft GBO4 – Technical Document – Target 12 DO NOT CITE 1 Target 12: Preventing Extinctions and Improving Species Conservation Status 2 3 By 2020 the extinction of known threatened species has been prevented and their conservation 4 status, particularly of those most in decline, has been improved and sustained. 5 6 7 Preface 8 9 The report on modelling and scenarios for GBO3 summarized predicted biodiversity loss under 10 future scenarios based on four key measures: (i) species extinctions, (ii) changes in species 11 abundance, (iii) habitat loss, and (iv) changes in the distribution of species, functional species 12 groups or biomes (Leadley et al. 2010, Pereira et al. 2010). In this report, habitat loss is 13 considered under the targets that comprise Strategic Goal B (‘Reduce the direct pressures on 14 biodiversity’). Here, we consider extinction risk and conservation status. For extinction risk, we 15 use measures based on the threat status (measured using the IUCN Red List) of species, such as 16 the Red List Index (Butchart et al., 2004). We also consider changes in species population sizes 17 and distributions, and changes in the species diversity and species composition of ecological 18 communities. Change in the diversity and composition of communities are considered despite 19 the focus of this target on the status of known threatened species, because changes in local 20 diversity accumulate to cause global loss of species, including of known threatened species. We 21 do not consider genetic diversity here because of the focus of the target on conserving species. 22 Genetic diversity is considered under Chapter 13, although only for cultivated plants, 23 domesticated animals and their wild relatives.
    [Show full text]
  • Extinction Debt Repayment Via Timely Habitat Restoration
    Extinction debt repayment via timely habitat restoration Katherine Meyer1 Abstract Habitat destruction threatens the viability of many populations, but its full consequences can take considerable time to unfold. Much of the discourse surrounding extinction debts—the number of species that persist transiently following habitat loss, despite being headed for extinction—frames ultimate population crashes as the means of settling the debt. However, slow population decline also opens an opportunity to repay the debt by restoring habitat. The timing necessary for such habitat restoration to rescue a population from extinction has not been well studied. Here we determine habitat restoration deadlines for a spatially implicit Levins/Tilman population model modified by an Allee effect. We find that conditions that hinder detection of an extinction debt also provide forgiving restoration timeframes. Our results highlight the importance of transient dynamics in restoration and suggest the beginnings of an analytic theory to understand outcomes of temporary press perturbations in a broad class of ecological systems. Keywords: Extinction debt, transient dynamics, non-equilibrium dynamics, press perturbation, habitat loss, restoration Elements: Main manuscript, Appendix A. Introduction Biodiversity underpins many ecosystem services [Balvanera et al. 2006], and continues to decline on a global scale [Butchart et al. 2010]. A key culprit is human modification of species’ habitats, from expansion of agricultural land use to sea floor trawling [Millenium Ecosystem Assessment]. However, loss of species does not necessarily occur immediately after a habitat loss. Tilman and colleagues coined the term “extinction debt” to describe the number of species that transiently persist following habitat destruction, despite being deterministically headed to extinction [Tilman et al.
    [Show full text]
  • Foresight Is Required to Enforce Sustainability Under Time-Delayed Biodiversity Loss
    bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/144444; this version posted May 31, 2017. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 1 Foresight is required to enforce sustainability under time-delayed biodiversity loss A.-S. Lafuite∗, C. de Mazancourt, M. Loreau Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, Moulis, France ∗Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Natural habitat loss and fragmentation generate a time-delayed loss of species and associated ecosystem services. Since social-ecological systems (SESs) depend on a range of ecosystem services, lagged ecological dynamics may affect their long-term sustainability. Here, we investigate the role of consumption changes in sustainability enforcement, under a time-delayed ecological feedback on agricultural production. We use a stylized model that couples the dynamics of biodiversity, tech- nology, human demography and compliance to a social norm prescribing sustainable consumption. Compliance to the sustainable norm reduces both the consumption footprint and the vulnerability of SESs to transient overshoot-and-collapse population crises. We show that the timing and interaction between social, demographic and ecological feedbacks govern the transient and long-term dynamics of the system. A sufficient level of social pressure (e.g. disapproval) applied on the unsustainable consumers leads to the stable coexistence of unsustainable and sustainable or mixed equilibria, where both defectors and conformers coexist.
    [Show full text]
  • Climatic Constraints on the Iconic Boreal Forest Li
    RESEARCH ARTICLE BRIEF COMMUNICATION Novel climates reverse carbon uptake of atmospherically dependent epiphytes: Climatic constraints on the iconic boreal forest lichen Evernia mesomorpha Robert J. Smith1,5 , Peter R. Nelson2, Sarah Jovan3, Paul J. Hanson4, and Bruce McCune1 Manuscript received 5 October 2017; revision accepted 4 January PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Changing climates are expected to affect the abundance and 2018. distribution of global vegetation, especially plants and lichens with an epiphytic lifestyle 1 Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State and direct exposure to atmospheric variation. The study of epiphytes could improve University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA understanding of biological responses to climatic changes, but only if the conditions that 2 Arts and Sciences Division, University of Maine at Fort Kent, elicit physiological performance changes are clearly defined. Fort Kent, Maine 04743, USA 3 Forest Inventory and Analysis Program, USDA Forest Service, METHODS: We evaluated individual growth performance of the epiphytic lichen Evernia Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon 97205, USA mesomorpha, an iconic boreal forest indicator species, in the first year of a decade-long 4 Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National experiment featuring whole- ecosystem warming and drying. Field experimental enclosures Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831, USA were located near the southern edge of the species’ range. 5 Author for correspondence (e-mail: [email protected]) KEY RESULTS: Mean annual biomass growth of Evernia significantly declined 6 percentage Citation: Smith, R. J., P. R. Nelson, S. Jovan, P. J. Hanson, and B. McCune. 2018. Novel climates reverse carbon uptake of atmos- points for every +1°C of experimental warming after accounting for interactions with pherically dependent epiphytes: Climatic constraints on the iconic atmospheric drying.
    [Show full text]