Benchmarking Public Transport in Melbourne

Transport for Melbourne What’s the plan? Thursday 4th August 2016

Prof Graham Currie Public Transport Research Group Institute of Transport Studies Monash University

Institute of Transport Studies (Monash) The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management

Introduction

Modal Problems

Land Use Problems

Improvement?

Futures This paper examines Melbourne public transport performance

Mode Land Use Improvement? Futures Problems Problems

Introduction

Modal Problems

Land Use Problems

Improvement?

Futures

4 Buses ARE Melbourne’s public transport for most residents, which is a problem….

• Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to

…because there arent many

• Over two thirds of Melbourne can only be serviced by bus services since rail and tram services lie considerable distances from where people live or where they want to travel to

Port • In 1996 the Metropolitan Phillip strategy team identified Bay that 2.16M Melbournians lived In areas where buses were bus was the only means of access to public transport. 0.98M lived within access Weekday Service Frequency (2006) Weekday Service Span distance of rail services  Peak Off Peak 0 10 20 Weekday Western Port kilometres AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m AV. MELBOURNE 06:46-18:53 6 The bus network on weekdays...

Weekday Bus Services

7 Source: Currie (2003) Source:Source: Currie Currie (2003) (2003)

…contrasts somewhat with weekends

Sunday Bus Services

8 Source: Currie (2003) Frequency drives Australian ridership performance

120,000

111

200 100,000

700 (903) T80 130 80,000 410 402 150 703

508 900 60,000 527

160 220

552 901 Boardings per route km route per Boardings 40,000 120 Melbourne Bus 180 271 541 555 Melbourne Smartbus 125 888 140 800 T65 Adelaide NE Busway 889 850 170 307 T500 561 506 100 623 624 Brisbane SE Busway 20,000 124 210 612 442437 564 542 T501 404 250 Sydney T-Ways 212 811135 305 627T70 683 T61 507 545 781 304 T75 503 T71 400 546 443 812785784T64407685T62 766 521 155 T63 926 0 548 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Vehicle trips/annum

Source: Currie, G. and Delbosc A (2011) ‘Understanding bus rapid transit route ridership drivers: An empirical study of Australian BRT systems’ TRANSPORT POLICY Volume 18, Issue 5, September 2011, Pages 755‐764

In general our bus service level is poor compared to world practice

Source: Pan D (2013) ‘Key Transport Statistics of World Cities’ Journeys Sept 2013

1010 Tram services are struggling in growing traffic congestion

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion

1111

Melbourne is the worlds biggest “streetcar” system

180 Tram Track Km in Mixed Traffic 16 7 Melbourne

160

140 Toronto

120 German Cities French Cities UK Cities USA Cities 100

80 71 66

60 49 48 44 41 40 31 25 24 24 23 18 17 20 14 13 12 99 9 8 7 5 443 4 333 110 1 21110000000000 d o e s t 0 a y d e n t s k tl es k m er er e as on m es i el on gh l el l DF sco fal and roi and I fi eg o tgart dorf ph i ogne ef Lyon an ds tl hei ean s el ea ns Loui uc hen Essen sburg l mor l Se at Dal R ouen oydo n ngha m dl vest i Buf B ost Det N ant el tm un d eno bl t/M ai sbu r t D enver a nci a m ento ev Newar Newar Col br Stut Or a sbourg Sh ef ti adel St. K enosha Por H anover Bi B ochum Mul Cr l tt Sa n Jose Gr Dui Memphi Cl Mi Gal M ann hei B onn S SB Dor LakeC i Sa n Di Pi Bal B onn S WB TOR O NTO D ussel M ontoel Str t M anch est Not Los An gel Phi Sa cr Sa ar N ew O r M ELB OU RN E sruhe (VBK ) W est Sa n Fr Sa l l Frankfur Tyne an d We ar Kar Source: Currie G and Shalaby A (2007) ‘Success and Challenges in Modernising Streetcar Systems – Experience in Melbourne and Toronto’ Transportation Research Record No 2006 Transportation Research Board Washington DC ISSN 0361-1981 pp 31-39 2007

12 13

Mixed Traffic service impedes performance

Average Operating Speeds –World Tram/Light Rail Systems

Skagen, 40 Guadalajara, 34 32 Toulouse, 31 30 Washington, 30 26 Lao n, 26 25 Melbourne Tram Reliability Stuttgart, 25 25 Hong Kong, 22 21 Strasbourg, 21 21 • 33% of services are New York, 21 21 M annheim, 20 20 considered to be NOT Los Angeles, 20 20 Rotterdam, 19 19 running on time Tunis, 19 19 Hong Kong, 19 18 Mainz, 18 18 • On time defined as arriving Heid elb er g 18 18 Munich, 18 18 more than 1 min early of Riga, 18 System 18

Berlin, 17 17 more than 6 mins late Oslo, 17 17 Paris, 17

City/ 17 Budapest, 17 17 Zwickau, 17 17 Const ant a, 17 16 Amsterdam, 16 16 Creil, 16 16 V ienna, 16 16 Zagreb, 15 15 Genève 15 15 Source: Track Record MELBOURNE 15 15 Torino, 15 Melbourne (15/16 kph) 14 Toronto, 14 14 Tallinn, 14 14 Würzburg, 13 12 M ilano, 12 10 Lisbon, 10 9

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Source: UITP Databank Average Speed (KPH)

14 Melbourne tram ridership is low compared to overseas systems; due to low relative frequency

6 Passengers per vehicle km 4 BRT (Australia) Light Rail (Australia)

2 Light Rail (USA) Light Rail (Europe)

0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Vehicle trips per annum

Source: Currie G and Delbosc A (2013) ‘Exploring Comparative Ridership Drivers of Bus Rapid Transit and Light Rail Transit Routes’ JOURNAL OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 16, No. 2, 2013 pp47‐65

1515

Better performing railways are built on new not old infrastructure and strong resilience/reliability

Average Speed (Kph) Breakdowns in Service (000 kms)

Melbourne 33 Melbourne 15

Sydney 50

Singapore 45

Best Practice 100

Hong Kong 52.6 Singapore Never

Perth 55 Hong Kong Recorded

20 30 40 50 60 0 102030405060708090100110

Av. Speed (Kph) Av. Speed (Kph)

16 ...yet expanding rail, thus making it more complex, has been our approach to mass transit expansion

Unplanned disruptions are common; e.g. reported signal faults; 1,900 p.a. (5+/day)

Reported Signaling Disruptions

• 1,900 signal failures p.a. (12 months to August 2013) • 5.2 per day • Biggest Locations: • Flinders Street Station 89 • North Melbourne 71 • Newport 51

Metro Trains "We are installing advanced computer technology which improves control of the signalling system, but our field equipment is outdated and requires replacing,"

Source: Adam Carey, The Age, ‘Signal failures are causing chronic rail delays’ 23/10/2013

1818 Melbourne rail demand growth has been impressive by any standard

History of Rail Patronage - Melbourne 240.0 228.9 225.5 219.3 222 220.0 213.9

201.2 200.0

Rail 178.6 180.0 Demand M trips 162.4 160.0 p.a. 146.0 134.9 140.0 131.8 133.8 127.9

120.0 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Year

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

However the rail network has reached capacity

20 So what do passengers think about these issues?

PERFORMANCE MINUS Highest IMPORTANCE RATINGS Lowest Importance Importance SPIRAL PLOT Safe at night Comfortable with strangers on PT 0.5 Reliability

Travel time compared to car Frequency 0

Can make trips to new places on PT Safe during day ‐0.5

Physical access ‐1 PT available where and when needed

‐1.5

Staff curteous and friendly Deal with disruptions quickly ‐2

‐2.5 Overcrowding Get to stops/stations

Ease of buying/using ticket Quality of service

Available at night Make connections

People I care for can use it safely Available on weekends

Source: Currie G Delbosc A (2015) Information to plan journey Get information about PT Variation in Perceptions Meet costs Disruptions don't happen often of Urban Public Transport Performance Between International Boston Brisbane London Melbourne New York Cities Using Spiral Plot Analysis' Perth San Francisco Sydney Toronto Average 22 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD Introduction

Modal Problems

Land Use Problems

Improvement?

Futures

The Transit Orientation of Development

Density –the concentration and compactness of development within geographic space

Diversity –the land use mix including the balance and compatability of users with each other (and transit)

Design –which relates how the various land uses are combined, linked and presented in terms of ease of access and attractiveness

Source: Cervero and Kockleman (1997)

2424 The Transit Orientation of Development – Design (Walkability) in Melbourne

Walkers Paradise

Very Walkable

Somewhat Walkable

Car Dependent

Source: Aston L, Currie G and K Pavkova (2016) ) ‘Does Transit Mode Influence the Transit-Orientation of Urban Development? - An Empirical Study’ JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY Vol 55 (2016) pp83-91

252 5

The Transit Orientation of Development – Density in Melbourne

Minimum Density (including JOBS) for Effective PT Provision (Newman & Kenworthy (2006)

26 The Transit Orientation of Development – OVERALL Melbourne – only in central areas

Introduction

Modal Problems

Land Use Problems

Improvement?

Futures

28 Since 2001 PT service increased 63% (66% bus/ 36% rail, 10% tram) but ‐ but population growth continues at a faster pace…

Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100) Population Growth (M) 170

5 160 520 4.8 4.7 150 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 140 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 130 4.1 4.0 4 3.9 120 3.8

Vehicle Kms p.a. (2001-2=100) p.a. Kms Vehicle 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 110 (M) Population 3.6 3.6 3.6

100 3.4

-2 -3 -4 -5 0 5-6 -1 -11 01 02 03 04 0 06-7 07-8 08-9 -17e 0 0 6 3.2 20 20 20 20 20 2 2 20 2009 2010 2011-122012-132013-142014-15 Year 2015-16e201 3 Rail Tram Bus Total 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 1-12 3-14 5- 16e Year Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

…in last 10 years, per capita service increased to 22% but declined since 2011 (we have gone down by 9% points); recent trend is flat

Relative Service Level Per Head 125

122 121 120 119

115 114 114 113 113 113 Service Levels 112 (Vkms supplied)110 Per Capita 107 105 105

102 102 102 100 100 100

95 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015- 2016- 16e 17e Year

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

30 Introduction

Modal Problems

Land Use Problems

Improvement?

Futures

Melbourne is expected to increase in size by another 1‐2M people in 20‐ 30 years

Forecast Melbourne Population Growth

2.5 7 2.33

2.08 6 2 1.82 5 1.55 1.5 4 Growth 1.27 Population (M) Growth 0.98 3 1 Total (M) 0.67 2

0.5 0.35 1

0 0 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Year

Source: Victoria in Future (2012)

32 Melbourne Metro; exciting but capacity upgrade is long overdue now – current start date is 2026!

Melbourne rail grade separations; exciting some capacity relief but not an increase in service

34 Where is tram and bus priority? – SmartBus; downgraded?

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369 ALSO: NEW PTRG WEBSITE PTRG.INFO

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381 0 Planning Public Transport Services – Short Course Melbourne 15-18 August, 2016