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Regional Cooperation on Drought Prediction Science for Disaster Preparedness and Management

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Regional Cooperation on Drought Prediction Science for Disaster Preparedness and Management REGIONAL COOPERATION ON DROUGHT PREDICTION SCIENCE FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT BY JINYOUNG RHEE, WENJU CAI, NEIL PLUMMER, MANNAVA SIVAKUMAR, NINA HORSTMANN, BIN WANG, AND DEWI KIRONO hile there have been numerous international symposia and conferences regarding the issue APEC CLIMATE SYMPOSIUM 2013: REGIONAL W of drought, few have dealt with both drought COOPERATION ON DROUGHT PREDICTION SCIENCE prediction and monitoring simultaneously. To connect FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT the dots between drought prediction, monitoring, and decision making, the Asia-Pacific Economic Coopera- WHAT: Approximately 100 participants from academia, tion (APEC) Climate Symposium 2013 was held with government, and the private sector presented the theme of regional cooperation on drought predic- research regarding innovative techniques tion science for disaster preparedness and management in drought monitoring and seasonal climate (www.apcc21.org/eng/acts/pastsym/japcc0202_viw prediction along with drought risk reduction and policy making at various administrative scales. .jsp?symp_yy=2013). The event was organized by the WHEN: 11–13 November 2013 APEC Climate Center and the Indonesian Agency WHERE: Jakarta, Indonesia for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics, with financial support from the APEC Secretariat. Gusti Muhammad Hatta, the Indonesian minister APEC mission of sustainable economic growth and for research and technology, opened the symposium, prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region. The ambassador noting the importance of the event in strengthening of South Korea to the Republic of Indonesia, Young-sun drought preparedness in order to contribute to the Kim, added his sincere hope that the event could serve as a platform for building a solid regional network for further cooperation on drought prediction and moni- AFFILIATIONS: RHEE AND HORSTMANN—APEC Climate Center, toring among APEC member economies. Busan, South Korea; CAI AND KIRONO—Commonwealth Scientific In his keynote address, Donald Wilhite, professor and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne, Victoria, at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and founder Australia; PLUMMER—Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, of the National Drought Mitigation Center, presented Australia; SIVAKUMAR—World Meteorological Organization, Ge- a state-of-the-art system for monitoring drought neva, Switzerland; WANG—International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, Hawaii conditions in the United States. He commented that CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Jinyoung Rhee, APEC Climate governments have historically managed drought Center, Centum 7-ro 12, Haeundae-gu, Busan 612-020, South in a reactive fashion rather than taking a proac- Korea tive risk-based approach. In light of the increasing E-mail: [email protected] frequency of extreme climate events and increased DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00049.1 societal vulnerability to drought, he stressed the In final form 26 November 2014 importance of breaking the “hydroillogical” cycle ©2015 American Meteorological Society of crisis management and the need to adopt a new paradigm for drought management that emphasizes AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY APRIL 2015 | ES67 preparedness and risk reduction. His recommenda- an acknowledgment of the importance of SPI as a tion to promote the principles of risk management valuable indicator and of maintaining a broad suite of by encouraging the development of reliable seasonal products and indices for wide sector adoption. As well, forecasts, early warning and information delivery there is a continuing effort to ensure that information systems, and preparedness plans at all levels of gov- systems meet information needs and provide tools to ernment was echoed in the subsequent presentations. manage decision makers’ risks, including interfacing The second keynote address, by Andi Eka Sakya of with drought response plans. Good information sys- the Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, tems allow for greater capability to respond to ques- and Geophysics (BMKG), focused on a potential tions on climate variability and change, including drought monitoring information system for Indonesia. drought. There has been rapid advancement in the He introduced the geographical and climatological remote sensing technologies used to monitor droughts, conditions of Indonesia and explained other existing as well as opportunities for leveraging international information systems produced by BMKG, such as the programs and projects and, in particular, supplying Tsunami Early Warning System. Proposed indicators drought information from data-sparse regions. Citizen for integration into an Indonesian drought early warn- science in weather and climate monitoring is growing ing system are soil moisture content, the standardized in importance and its prominence can foster better precipitation index (SPI), and the number of days policy outcomes from deeper community engagement. without rain (dry spells). He also spoke about infor- There is also enhanced value in coupling monitoring mation dissemination and the Climate Field Schools, and prediction systems (e.g., the increased demand for which facilitate end users in deciphering technical cli- seasonal forecasts while experiencing drought), and mate information by translating that information into this presents opportunities for scientists and service farming impacts and management recommendations. providers to better inform critical decisions. DROUGHT PREDICTION AND SCIENCE AT UTILIZING DROUGHT INFORMATION MULTIPLE TIME SCALES. Discussion during the FOR POLICY AND DECISION MAKING. The meeting session on drought prediction across multiple session on policy makers and their use of drought time scales led to several key points being identified. information featured several topics of consideration. First, there was a realization that drought is a very Among them, drought policy is currently a low broad term and could mean different things to differ- priority in many countries, with no separate policies ent people and user groups. In addition, the time scales for drought. Even within national disaster risk reduc- under exploration vary vastly from weeks and months tion policies, drought is typically given low priority. A to years and decades and the spatial scales range from major conclusion was the need for improved services catchment to regions and continents. There is increasing to users, namely, the provision of drought informa- evidence for long-term changes in rainfall and its associ- tion in such a way as to assist decision making by ated processes, but it is generally difficult to identify the individuals and organizations. Improved informa- forcing. Persistent drought that occurred in countries tion services should involve appropriate engagement like those of Australia and New Zealand, as well as on and better interaction between users and provid- neighboring islands, can be in part linked to sea surface ers. There is a need for a much higher level of user temperature (SST) variability associated with the Pacific involvement in all aspects of drought risk manage- decadal oscillation. Forcing of rainfall declines can vary ment, information delivery, and use. There is a need significantly by season. At this stage, rainfall predic- for improvement in the areas of drought awareness, tion is reasonably accurate with a 1-month lag. More monitoring, early warning and information delivery refined and higher-spatial-resolution prediction models systems, and decision support tools and preparedness are being developed. Finally, although the long-term plans, along with a need for complete risk assessments projection of rainfall carries significant uncertainty, we of vulnerable sectors, population groups, and regions. have higher confidence in the projection of temperature. Rising temperature can exert a significant impact on EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES. The conference future drought intensity and duration. presentations described the extent of existing research and scientific understanding of the processes and DROUGHT MONITORING AND mechanisms that control rainfall and other variables INFORMATION SYSTEMS. Key points from relevant to drought in different areas, and they shared the meeting session on drought monitoring and the the ways that governments and stakeholders have information systems used to track droughts included begun to use drought prediction information to ES68 | APRIL 2015 prepare for extreme events. Throughout the presenta- real time or in past data. Additionally, there is a need tions and discussion, several themes began to emerge, to include a broad suite of information products and/ highlighting areas of opportunity for the scientific or indices to support adoption across a wide range of community to support drought preparedness and sectors. It is highly recommended that major opera- management. tional centers use a multimodel ensemble technique to enhance their probabilistic drought forecasts Development of national drought management policies. for drought indices, including the Palmer drought Several speakers touched upon the recommenda- severity index (PDSI), SPI, and the crop moisture tions and outputs of the High-Level Meeting on index (CMI), to facilitate end users’ decision making. National Drought Policy (HMNDP). The HMNDP was organized in March 2013 by the World Meteoro- Vulnerability assessments and socioeconomic impact logical Organization (WMO), the Secretariat of the assessments. To support the development of national United Nations Convention to Combat
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