The Rational Game

FIBAEUROPE COACHES - OFFENSE THE RATIONAL GAME by Tamas Sterbenz Tamas Sterbenz is a former player of the RATIONALITY should be multiplied by 0.44 to get the cor- Hungarian National Team. He was A behavior is considered rational if it rect number of possessions for a whole appointed head coach of the Hungarian helps achieve a definite goal. So, first we season (for fast post game analysis 0.5 Women’s National Team in 2004. He tea- need to determine the goals in basketball. can be used). ches economics and management at the For example, the goal can be to win a Hungarian University of Physical championship, to beat a specific oppo- Possession = Field Goal + (Free-Throw Education. His Ph.D. topic was “Bounded nent, or in the short term, to score a 0.44) + Turnover - Offensive Rebound Rationality in Decision Making in Sports basket. These goals are simple but they Management”. are not the same. Therefore, we need to Offensive rebounds have to be deducted select one unit to analyze the rationality. from the equation, because they are still Smart play is a goal of coaches and In competitive basketball this unit should part of the same possession; only the players in every sport. The winner is be the game because performance can be offensive time starts over. This ensures always proud of his strategy and emphasi- best compared at the game level. During that both teams have equal number of zes the correct execution. The loser criti- the game the teams alternate possession opportunities to score. This does not cizes the game plan or blames the coach of the ball. Both teams have equal oppor- mean that offensive rebounds are not or players for neglecting that. Indeed, do tunity to score points and the team that important, as is described in the next sec- the sportspeople know what should they scores more will win the game. We can tion. have done? Do they know how rational see the better performance within a strategy should be built the next time? game, but if we want to compare several CRUCIAL FACTORS Unfortunately, in most cases they do not games we need to look at the ratio That team that wins is one whose offensi- know. In this short article, I will analyze between points made and number of pos- ve rating is higher than its own defensive the rationality of basketball and describe sessions. To analyze the performance, rating, which is equal to the opponent’s some strategic principles. final score itself is not good indicator. The offensive rating. Both offensive and score should be weighted by defensive ratings are good tools for analy- the total number of attempts, sis by the coach. Yet, to make the best which also shows the rhythm rational strategic decision, the coach of the game. needs to find which elements are the most critical to increase the offensive rating EFFICIENCY and decrease the defensive rating. To measure efficiency of According to Dean Oliver, the four basic defense and offense, methods aspects of a game include: have been created and used for several decades. Histo- 1. Shooting percentage from the field. rically, famous coaches such 2. Offensive rebounding. as Dean Smith and Frank 3. Committing turnovers. McGuire and analysts like 4. Going to the foul line a lot and making Dean Oliver and John the shots. Hollinger have worked on developing a measure of To better understand these crucial offensive rating: aspects, a good guide is that in professio- nal men’s basketball the offensive rating is Offensive Rating = Score around 1, so a team usually makes 1 point Points / Possession in average per possession (in 1991-92, the NBA’s Chicago Bulls reached the highest Current statistics do not keep seasonal offensive score of 1.155 in). count of the number of possessions, but this can easily 1. If the team finishes all its offenses with be counted or estimated. a 2-point shot, a 50% shooting percen- Offense ends with either a tage ensures an offensive score that is field goal or a free-throw higher than 1. In case of 3-point shots, attempt or turnover. Obviously, the team has to have a 33% shooting a free-throw will not count for percentage to reach the same. 1 possession. According to the 2. Increasing the number of free-throws NBA’s estimation, a free-throw helps the team reach an offensive PAGE 20 | 20 2006 | FIBA ASSIST MAGAZINE Time: there are 24 seconds to finish the possession, and the quarters are 10 minutes long. The remaining time left in the 24-second period or the quarter will always influence the decisions. Rational behavior must take this into considera- tion. The same shot in the beginning of the possession is irrational compared to the shot at the end of the period, which is necessary. Space: moves are differentiated by where they take place on the court. Shooting percentage depends on how far the player is from the basket. Rational strategy should increase the expected value of the shooting. The opponent’s position on defense affects what the offense should do (rational strategy must differ when playing against press or zone defense). Personal fouls: the offense must be aware of how the defense can stop the team from scoring. If the defensive team has less than 4 personal fouls, the offensive team should know that rational decision might be to commit a foul. Result: at all times the actual score will influence tactical decision. Rationality of all tactical decision depends on how it impacts the final score. Decisions throu- ghout the game can be evaluated based on time and score, and risk taking must consider the same factors. RISK AND UNCERTAINTY All decision contains risk and uncertainty. Nothing is certain, situations are ambiguous, decisions depend on multiple criteria, and execution depends on the whole team. Even though all these are score higher than 1. Other than extre- were missed on purpose, the team rational factors, there will be the oppo- me cases, all players make free- would have a chance to make a 2- nent that will impact the outcome. throws above 50% success rate. or 3-point shot. 3. High number of field scoring attempts In basketball, there are only rational deci- shows that the team does not commit BOUNDARIES IN BASKETBALL sions, but not optimal decisions. One turnovers. Also, low number of turno- Every sport is surrounded by rules to must know that success is relative, and it vers decreases the defensive rating, make the game more difficult and intere- is often affected by good fortune. because the opponent could not sting. These rules, or boundaries, impact Rational strategy ensures only long-term make many easy baskets. the strategies and the decisions in the efficiency but single actions depend on 4. Increase in offensive rebounds will execution. The following boundaries exist intuition and anticipation. In a game, both lead to more chances to make a in basketball. teams have 80 to 90 possessions and close attempt or to get to the free- sometimes even irrational behavior can throw line. Often at the end of the Opponent: in basketball, the goal is not lead to success. game, following an offensive to make many baskets, but to make rebound, the team will get a new 24- more baskets than the opponent. The During practices, coaches should build seconds on the shot clock, which moves don’t have to be fast, but faster boundaries into the drills to teach players can lead to winning the game. than the opponent. In decision making, to be rational. If both teams play smart Offensive rebounds would also can’t neglect the opponent. Success and use correct strategy, there still will increase the offensive rating, and doesn’t only depend on a team’s deci- be a winner and a loser, but basketball save the game. If the free throws sion, but also on the opponent’s choice. will advance! FIBA ASSIST MAGAZINE | 20 2006 | PAGE 21 .

Load more