How to Win More Games by ... Playing Slower

HOW TO WIN MORE GAMES BY ... PLAYING SLOWER

"There is a difference between playing rushed and playing fast. Less talented teams tend to play rushed."

P A S C A L M E U R S GAMEPLAN

INTRO

QUARTER 1 THE FOUR FACTORS BEHIND A DEFENSIVE RATING

QUARTER 2 OFFENSIVE FLOW AND EFFICIENCY

QUARTER 3 HOW TO WIN MORE GAMES ... BY PLAYING SLOWER

QUARTER 4 HOW ANTWERP CAN DETHRONE OSTEND BY SEDUCING THEM TO PLAY LIKE GOLDEN STATE

OVERTIME HOW BASKETBALL IS EVOLVING INTO A BINARY GAME: DUNK OR BOMB

Author

Pascal Meurs (39) is a professional basketball coach with experience at the highest level in Belgium, The Netherlands, France and Luxembourg & was part of the coaching staff of NCAA1 Saint Joseph’s Hawks.

Pascal is an expert in advanced basketball analytics with a Phd in mathematics. As a skilled speaker on coaching clinics, he has been invited to three different continents. For Eleven Sports, he’s an analyst on Belgian TV.

www.pascalmeurs.com

INTRO

Ever since the “07 seconds or less” book (2006) about the Phoenix Suns team under Mike d’Antoni, the tendency in the NBA for most teams has been to play faster and faster. The idea of “FASTER = BETTER” got an extra boost when one of the best teams of all time (Golden State Warriors 2015-2016) dominated the league with hitting an unseen number of transition three-pointers speeding up the number of possessions in a basketball game.

As very often, the NBA is the window on global basketball. So in the past years this has effected almost every single basketball league in the world to speed up the pace of the game. However, the question is if this is the best possible strategy for every roster… Is faster indeed better when you don’t have Curry, Thompson or Harden on your roster? There is a difference between playing rushed and playing fast. Less talented teams tend to play rushed.

Today, I expect the tide to be turning. At the highest level, in different leagues, some of the best teams prove to be highly effective by playing … SLOWER. More then ever, it proves that you cannot stop learning as a coach in this ever evolving sports! Some facts on this current ’18-’19 season:

NBA ’18-‘19 Six of the ten slowest paced teams of the regular season made it to the play-offs (DET, HOU, DEN, IND, ORL, SAS), while the four fastest teams of the league (ATL, NOP, SAC, LAL) all have a negative Net Rating. Mike d’Antonis Houston Rockets are the fourth slowest team of the NBA.

EUROLEAGUE ’18-‘19 Ranked #1 after the regular season, Fenerbahce Istanbul has by far the slowest pace (68.9 possessions a game) of the league, averaging two (!) possessions less than the second slowest team. The fastest team (72.5 pace) ended up on the 14th spot (out of 16).

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA ’18-‘19 Bayern Munich that dominates the league with only two losses so far, is the third slowest team of the country. Allthough ALBA Berlin is very successful while having the most possessions a game (ranked #3 and runner-up of the EuroCup).

BELGIAN LEAGUE ’18-‘19 The three teams with the fewest possessions a game (BRU, ANT, OOS) are all in the Top 4 of the ranking, while the three fastest teams (LIM, AAL, WIL) cover the 6-7-8th spot (out of 10 teams).

In this e-book, I will take you on my journey throughout the 2017-2018 season of the Belgian professional basketball league. On different key moments of the season, I analyze the advanced stats of the Belgian League to come up with a surprising correlation between pace and offensive efficiency, going against all worldwide tendencies in basketball. QUARTER 1 THE FOUR FACTORS BEHIND A DEFENSIVE RATING

5/12/2017

Except for three delayed games because of the European club competitions, one quarter of the Euromillions Basketball League 2017-2018 is finished. Every team played each opponent one time, with three more meetings to come. Time for a first team analysis of the stats from a coach’s point of view. The source for this report of all traditional stats is the Euromillions Basketball League website.

By calculating more advanced and meaningful numbers, I want to make some conclusions about the playing styles, weaknesses and strengths of all teams in the league. Therefore, it is important to look beyond the traditional stats and to look at the numbers that are statistically more relevant. To give an example: in the press one reads often that Limburg United has a weak defense because week after week they allow many points. Before making conclusions like that, one also has to look to the pace a team plays. It is logic that when a team plays run-and-gun basketball with a lot of possessions every game, they score AND allow more points that a team that often walks up the ball. In fact, it appears that Limburg United so far played the fastest basketball of the whole league, they are ranked #1 in pace (=number of possessions per 40 minutes). Therefore people are likely to be too pessimistic about their defense, but also too optimistic about their offense… To analyze the defense and offense of each team, it is far more correct to look at the points allowed and scored per 100 possessions.

ORtg = points scored per 100 possessions DRtg = points allowed per 100 possessions NetRtg = ORtg – DRtg Pace = number of possessions per 40 mins

It is remarkable that Oostende, without any doubt the best team of the league on both ends of the court since several years, has by far the slowest pace. The fastest team (Limburg) has on average 6 possessions more than Oostende. If these diffences seem minimal, one has to realize that so far this season 35% (!!) of all games were decided within two possessions of the game!

Taking a closer look to the defensive ratings of all teams (DRtg = points allowed per 100 possessions), learns that Oostende is by far the only team that can keep its opponent below 100 points (per 100 possessions). All teams are ranked in the graph according to their defensive strenght:

DRtg = points allowed per 100 possessions eFG% = effective field goal percentage (which takes into account extra value of scored 3pt) of the opponent TOV% = number of turnovers per 100 possessions by the opponent DR% = Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a team grabbed FT/FGA = number of free throws per field goal attempt by the opponent

When analyzing deeper what teams are doing well in defense, one could rely – based on the boxscores of the game - on these four factors:

1. Effective field goal percenage of the opponent eFG% A good team defense forces the other team in a bad shot selection and a lot of forced/contested shots and consequently a lower FG%. Best team: Oostende limits its opponents to an eFG% of 45% Worst team: Liege 61%

2. Turnover Rate of the opponent TOV% The execution of a good defensive gameplan forces the opponent to turnovers. TOV% is the number of turnovers by the opponent per 100 possessions. Best team: Limburg forces their opponent to 17,6 turnovers every 100 possessions. Challenging their opponents in playing a higher pace then usually is definitely an important factor for Limburg in this surprising result. Worst team: Opponents of Willebroek commit “only” 12,4 turnovers per 100 possessions

3. Defensive rebound percentage DR% Controlling the boards on the defensive end is an important factor in limiting the score of the opponent, which takes away any second chance points. Instead of looking to “defensive rebounds” as an absolute number, it is more precize to compare the percentage of boards which ended up in the hands of the defensive team. Best team: Aalstar takes in defense 80,3 % of all rebound opportunities Worst team: Charleroi 70,8%

4. Free throws provoked by the opponent FT/FGA A fourth factor is the number of free throws a team gives to the opponent. A bad defensive team often ends up in bad situations where a shooting foul is the only way to prevent an easy basket. Best team: Opponents of Oostende provoke per 100 field goal attempts only 22 FT Worst team: Opponents of Mons provoke per 100 field goal attempts 38 FT

Later on this season, I will focus more detailed on the offensive ratings of all teams of the league, allthough I do want to share one remarkable fact. Boosted by the successess of the Golden State Warriors in the NBA, the importance of the three point shot has increased enormously over the past couple of years in all leagues over the world. It is however remarkable that the two teams that have the highest scoring percentage behind the arc (#1 Oostende 46,4% and #2 Mons 43,9%) are the two teams that shoot the fewest threepointers. Respectively 32,2% (Oostende) and 30,5% (Mons) of all field goal attemps are behind the arc, while a team like Liege settles in 43,2% of all attempts for a threepoint shot. Good offensive teams are often defined by a good shot selection, while team that struggle with the ball often fail to create good shots and settle too often for (contested and rushed) shots behind the arc.

QUARTER 2 OFFENSIVE FLOW AND EFFICIENCY

1/3/2018

During this FIBA national team break, the Euromillions Basketball League 2017-2018 is more or less halfway. Every team played each opponent twice, with two more meetings to come in the regular competition. Time for a team analysis that focuses on offense from a coach’s point of view. The source for this report of all traditional stats is the Euromillions Basketball League website.

In red and green is marked whether the teams have substantially improved or not their offense and defense since Gameday 9.

While this analysis is focused on offense, the fact that Oostende improved their defensive rating to 90,7 stands out. They limited their contenders Aalstar and Mons to impressive scores of 38 and 48 points in this second part of the championship.

1. Pace and Efficiency

1 To give an example: It is logic that when a team plays run-and-gun basketball with a lot of possessions every game, they score AND allow more points than a team that often walks up the ball. To analyze the defense and offense of each team, it is far more correct to look at the points allowed and scored per 100 possessions.

It is remarkable that Oostende, without any doubt the best team on both ends of the court since several years, has by far the slowest PACE (= number of possessions per 40 minutes). The fastest team (Limburg) has on average 6 possessions more than Oostende. If these differences seem minimal, one has to realize that so far this season 35% (!!) of all games were decided within two possessions of the game!

The efficiency of an offense can be expressed in the PPP (= points per possession). While Oostende has by far the most efficient offense, Leuven is just on the edge to score on average 1 point per possession.

In the next section we will focus on the keys to these efficiency numbers.

2. Four factors behind offensive efficiency

More info about the choice of these Four Factors, can be found here.

ORtg = points scored per 100 possessions

eFG% = effective field goal percentage (which takes into account extra value of scored 3pt) TOV% = number of turnovers per 100 possessions OR% = Offensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team grabbed FT/FGA = number of free throws provoked per field goal attempt

FACTOR 1: Effective field goal percentage eFG% Best team: Oostende 60.3% Worst team: Liege 49.0%

FACTOR 2: Turnover Rate TOV% Best team: Liege 12.6 Worst team: Willebroek 16.7

FACTOR 3: Offensive rebound percentage OR% Best team: Oostende 29.5% Worst team: Aalst 20.6%

FACTOR 4: Free throws provoked FT/FGA Best team: Oostende 38.4 Worst team: Brussels 23.1

The fact that Oostende excels in three out of four factors highlights once again their dominance in the league. Their effective field goal percentage (which takes into account the fact that a threepointer results in more points than a lay-up) of 60,3% shows their smart shot selection (nobody else comes close to 60%), as nobody comes close to their 0.38 free throws provoked for every field goal attempt.

3. Offensive flow versus isolation ball

When one has to judge the offensive flow based upon stats, one is a bit limited. In an earlier article I already wrote about the importance of secundary assists (“hockey assists”), which are unfortunately not available in standard boxscores. Also here, the pace factor prohibits us to simply look at the number of assists that a team has. A fast pace run-and- gun team will have more fieldgoals a game and therefore also more chances upon an assist. I will focus here on two numbers: the number of assists per made field goal (AST/FGM) and the assist over turnover (AST/TO) ratio.

Both factors mostly say something about playing style and not about quality. If you compare it with the NBA, last weekend one had the match-up between the two extremes: Cleveland vs San Antonio. Cleveland known for its isolation ball around Lebron James versus the team ball of San Antonio directed by Popovich (and without individual stars as Leonard, Parker and Ginobli).

The four teams where 60% or more of all field goals are scored out of an assist are Antwerp, Charleroi, Limburg and Oostende. Their playing style is also more related to a passing game with a lot of ball movement. Oostende and Antwerp combine this with an excellent AST/TO ratio. The offensive strategy of Mons, Liege and Willebroek where 50% or less of all field goals are scored out of an assist, are more based upon isolation plays for their most talented scorers.

QUARTER 3 HOW TO WIN MORE GAMES ... BY PLAYING SLOWER

ANALYSIS OF 26240 POSSESSIONS IN BEL 1st DIVISION BASKETBALL

24/5/2018

10 teams. 36 rounds. 180 games. 7200 minutes of basketball. 26240 possession. The curtain has fallen over the 2017-2018 regular season in the 1st Division basketball in Belgium. Before heading to the play-offs, time to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of all teams on both ends of the court. Throughout this analysis we will go deeper into the advanced stats and ratings for every team during the regular season.

In order to focus on evaluating team performances in offense and defense we’ll rank the teams according to their Net Rating, rather than a normal ranking where wins or losses in close games are huge.

ORtg = points scored per 100 possessions DRtg = points allowed per 100 possessions NetRtg = ORtg – DRtg

Most surprisingly is the second last place for Kangoeroes Willebroek, which remains mostly covered by a 7th spot in the official ranking and thus an upcoming match-up against neighbor Antwerp in the quarter-finals of the play-offs.

Graphically, one notices immediately the weak performances of Liege, Willebroek and Leuven on the defensive end, while Ostend dominates the regular season once again, on both sides of the floor, despite 4 losses in their last 6 games.

In the remainder of this report, we’ll go deeper into the aspects that make a solid defense or an affective offense. Furthermore, we’ll link the playing style of each team to its efficiency, with a remarkable conclusion that goes against the newest trends in modern basketball. 1. DEFENSE

Oostende is by far the only team in Belgium that can limit their opponent below 100 points for every 100 possessions. They are the best of the class in 3 of the so-called Four Factors behind a solid defense. Teams score +120 points in 100 possessions when they play against Liege (allowing them an effective field goal percentage of 60%). For every 10 field goal attempts by the opponent, Limburg United gives away more than 4 free throws.

eFG% = effective field goal percentage by the opponent TOV% = number of turnovers per 100 possessions by the opponent DR% = Defensive rebound percentage is the percentage of available defensive rebounds a team grabs FT/FGA = number of free throws provoked per field goal attempt by the opponent

2. OFFENSE

In this section we’ll have a closer look to the performances in offense of all teams. Below are all teams ranked according to their offensive ratings and also their Four Factors. Next to the fact that Oostende excells once again and that Brussels and Leuven underachieve on the offensive end, the poor performance of powerhouse Aalstar on the offensive boards jumps out. Liege ends up with the 4th most efficient offense of the league thanks to their low turnover rate and pressure on the offensive rebounds. eFG% = effective field goal percentage (which takes into account extra value of scored 3pt) TOV% = number of turnovers per 100 possessions OR% = Offensive rebound percentage is the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team grabbed FT/FGA = number of free throws provoked per field goal attempt

In the last section of this report, we’ll focus on how the playing styles of all teams result in these ratings in offense. 3. PLAYING STYLE

All season long, Limburg and Charleroi have been the teams with the highest pace of the league, having +74 possessions a game, while Oostende averages 4 possessions less a game.

A quick look at the graphic, shows that 4 teams (Oostende, Mons, Aalstar and Antwerp) play significantly slower than all the rest. Remarkably, all those 4 teams end up with an offensive rating above 110 points, while all faster playing teams (except for Liege) stay below this mark! You could conclude that in the Belgian League the slowest- paced teams are offensively the most effective!

This is completely against the latest trends in the NBA PACE = number of possessions per 40’ where five teams (Golden State, Houston, Philadelphia, PPP = points per possession Toronto and New Orleans) end up in the Top 10 of pace AND offensive efficiency.

QUARTER 4 HOW ANTWERP CAN DETHRONE OSTEND BY SEDUCING THEM TO PLAY LIKE GOLDEN STATE

Finals preview

6/6/2018

As the final act of the 2017-2018 season in the Belgian EuroMillions League, the two best ranked teams of the regular season, BC Oostende and Antwerp Telenet Giants, will face each other in a best-of-five series.

In a previous analysis, it appeared that Oostende has by far the best rating, both in offense as in defense, over the regular season. Antwerp has the 2nd best defense of the league, while it is ranked 3rd in the league for their offense. During the regular season, both teams matched up four times, resulting in two victories for Oostende early in the season and two back-to-back wins for Antwerp during the last weekend before the start of the play-offs.

In this overview, we will compare their regular season stats with their performances in those four match-ups. It may not surprise that in general the ratings of both teams drop when facing their toughest opponent of the regular season.

Overall, Oostende starts this finals series as the clear favorite, dominating the league all season long on both ends of the floor, and after winning the last 6 (!) titles in Belgium. It is interesting to see what gave Antwerp the edge in those two recent regular season wins and which playing style they need in order to beat Oostende, based upon their previous match- ups: ANTWERP WINS WHEN THEY OSTEND WINS WHEN THEY

- Speed up the game tempo, going - Control and slow down the pace of into a full court transition game the game, going into their half court set plays with their floor leader - Close the paint in defense, secuding Djordjevic Ostend to a lot of 3pt attempts and allowing few free throws - Attack the basket aggressively, provoking a lot of free throws

One can conclude that Oostende has to play the opposite style of the Golden State Warriors, which defined by being very high paced and relying heavily on their three-point shots.

Stats are just stats, right? Nothing more, nothing less. It is just one small segment of the gameplan, just as there is the form and mindset on gameday, individual match-ups, detailed tactical choices in offense and defense, ... Let us all hope that these finals turn into a series where details make the difference. And if you have to make the calls on one of both benches, you definitely want to know which playing styles have lead to succes and failure in your previous match-ups with the opponent!

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Legenda: ORtg: points scored per 100 possessions eFG%: effective field goal % (which values extra point of scored 3pt) TOV%: number of turnovers per 100 possessions ORB%: the percentage of available offensive rebounds a team grabbed FT/FGA: number of free throws provoked per field goal attempt Pace: number of possessions per 40 minutes 3PA/FGA: % of field goal attempts taken behind the 3pt line AST/FGM: % of field goals that are made coming out of an assist

OVERTIME HOW BASKETBALL IS EVOLVING INTO A BINARY

GAME: DUNK OR BOMB

Recent evolutions on the use of the three point shot in the NBA, Euroleague and the Belgian EuroMillions Basketball League

20/1/2019

Basketball is an ever evolving sport. Since the success of the Golden State Warriors in the NBA over the last seasons, the number of three point attempts are rising exponentially. The Warriors have in Steph Curry and Klay Thompson two of the all-time best shooters who have extended every notion of shooting range almost up to half court. Last year, the Houston Rockets with James Harden finished the season taking more threes than two point shots! Whether this crazy amount of threes is a justified shot selection, is pure mathematics. Whenever you hit those shots at a percentage that is high enough, it is a good shot because it results in 3 instead of 2 points. And the combination of more focus on shooting, better coaching and transforming player profiles makes that the percentage of hitting three point shots is going up in the NBA, despite the higher volume in shots. Nowadays, in a regular NBA game, almost all shots are either lay-ups/dunks or either three point shots. Older players like Chris Paul and Dwayne Wade seem to be some of the last survivors of a so- called mid-range game. And the fans … they seem to LOVE it, since the NBA keeps expanding its global popularity worldwide.

The idea prioritize ‘high percentage shots’ is not new though. Already in 1993, Vance Walberg (former NBA assistant coach) was founder in 1997 of the Dribble Drive Motion Offense. The slogan behind this offensive scheme was “We like threepointers, but we love lay-ups”. The offense became more popular when John Calipari used it successfully in NCAA basketball.

Recent days, all records concerning threepointers in the NBA are simply exploding. Steph Curry made more threes in two (!) seasons than one of the best all-time shooters – Larry Bird – in his whole career. (You might want to read that Vance Walberg and me last sentence a a-second time before it sinks in.) While the (Philadelphia 2013) 2m13 tall Brooke Lopez was 0/7 from three combined over his first 6 seasons in the NBA, he made already 110 threes (at 37,9%) halfway this current NBA season. And he’s far from being the only big man to hit the three. It has become the standard.

Often one sees that trends in the NBA are copied to the domestic basketball leagues worldwide. Therefore, let’s have a look to the use of three point shot in our own Belgian EuroMillions Basketball League. While the number of 3pt shots has raised dramatically over the last years in the NBA, the use in the EMBL has been more or less steady at a level which even today is … slightly higher than the NBA! The following data show the frequency of the three point shot in the NBA, Euroleague and EuroMillions League over the past six seasons:

Percentage of field goals taken behind the arc in the NBA (blue), Euroleague (orange) and Belgium D1 (gray) over recent years

This current ’18-’19 season, 36,2% of all field goals in Belgium are taken behind the 3pt arc, while it is 35,1% in the NBA. If we look at the highest level in European basketball, we see the same trend. In this Euroleague competition 36,9% of all shots this season are from three.

And the shooting percentages? Well, they are comparable. In this current season, the success rate behind the arc in Belgium is 34,7%, while 35,3% in the NBA. Here, one has to say that in Belgium, according to the FIBA rules, the three point line is 50 cm closer to the basket than in the NBA. It is no coincidence that we see so many threes from the corner, since the three point line there is 20 cm closer to the basket compared to the top of the key.

If we compare the use of the three point shot between the teams in our league, we see huge differences. Kangoeroes Mechelen is the team that takes proportionally the most three points shots. More than 45% of their shots are from behind the arc. Leuven Bears takes the fewest threes, only 23% of their field goals, which seems justified since they also have the weakest shooting percentage from three (28%).

At first sight, Antwerp Giants seems to find the most optimal balance in their shot selection, since they take +40% of their shots from deep (ranked 3rd) at the 2nd highest percentage of the league (40,7%). The injury of key inside threat Moses Kingsley and the remarkable improvement from 3 of Vanwijn since his arrival in Antwerp are key factors in this shot selection.

The Belgian team with the highest 3pt% is Basic-Fit Brussels (41,7%), while they take proportionally the 3rd The use and success of the three point shot in the least three point shots of all teams. Belgian EuroMillions League (2018-2019)

There is however one big difference between the NBA and our EMBL. In the NBA we find the teams that take proportionally the most threes high in the rankings, while in Belgium Kangoeroes Mechelen and Limburg United are respectively ranked 6th and 7th out of 10 teams. The leader of the championship so far, Filou Oostende, take the 2nd fewest threes of all teams… Of course, the shot selection of a team is only one aspect of a basketball game. Later on this season, I will focus more on other keys in offense and defense to explain the success or failure of the Belgian teams.