Downscaling Temperatures to Shenandoah National Park Using
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National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Downscaling Temperatures to Shenandoah National Park using Gridded Climate Data Sets, High- Resolution Atmospheric Models, and Surface Observations Final Report in Completion of Cooperative Agreement 484010004 Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/SHEN/NRTR—2014/875 ON THE COVER View from Hawksbill Mountain Photograph by: courtesy of Shenandoah National Park Downscaling Temperatures to Shenandoah National Park using Gridded Climate Data Sets, High- Resolution Atmospheric Models, and Surface Observations Final Report in Completion of Cooperative Agreement 484010004 Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/SHEN/NRTR—2014/875 Temple R. Lee1, Stephan F.J. De Wekker1, John E.B. Wofford2 1University of Virginia Department of Environmental Sciences 291 McCormick Road, Clark Hall Charlottesville, VA 22904-0123 2National Park Service Shenandoah National Park 3655 US HWY 211E Luray, VA 22835 May 2014 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. These reports are of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Technical Report Series is used to disseminate results of scientific studies in the physical, biological, and social sciences for both the advancement of science and the achievement of the National Park Service mission. The series provides contributors with a forum for displaying comprehensive data that are often deleted from journals because of page limitations. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data, and whose background and expertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available in digital format from Shenandoah National Park Division of Natural and Cultural Resources and the Natural Resource Publications Management website (http://www.nature.nps.gov/publications/nrpm/). To receive this report in a format optimized for screen readers, please email [email protected]. Please cite this publication as: Lee, T. R., S. F. J. De Wekker, and J. E. B. Wofford. 2014. Downscaling temperatures to Shenandoah National Park using gridded climate data sets, high-resolution atmospheric models, and surface observations: Final report in completion of cooperative agreement 484010004. Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/SHEN/NRTR—2014/875. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 134/124726, May 2014 ii Contents Page Figures.................................................................................................................................................... v Tables .................................................................................................................................................... ix Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................................. 3 List of Terms .......................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 5 Methods .................................................................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Overview of approach to downscaling climate data .......................................................... 9 2.2. Site Conditions ................................................................................................................. 11 2.3. Meteorological measurements ......................................................................................... 12 2.3.1. Long-term measurements ................................................................................... 12 2.3.2. Slope measurements ........................................................................................... 13 2.3.3. Temperature measurements in the habitat of P. shenandoah .............................. 20 2.4. Gridded Climate Data Sets ............................................................................................... 21 2.4.1. PRISM ................................................................................................................ 21 2.4.2. DAYMET ........................................................................................................... 23 2.5. High-resolution simulations with a mesoscale meteorological model ............................. 24 2.6 Regional climate model results ........................................................................................ 24 2.6.1. NARCCAP ......................................................................................................... 24 2.6.2. Other regional climate models ............................................................................ 25 Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................................ 27 3.1. Present-day temperature variations in SNP ..................................................................... 27 3.1.1. Long-term temperature trends in SNP ................................................................ 28 3.1.2. Relationship between Big Meadows and measurements within the habitat of P. shenandoah .......................................................................................................... 30 3.1.3. Temperature and relative humidity variability within habitat of P. shenandoah 33 3.1.4. Slope temperature measurements ....................................................................... 34 3.2. Evaluation of downscaling methods ................................................................................ 36 iii Contents (continued) Page 3.2.1. PRISM Evaluation .............................................................................................. 36 3.2.2. DAYMET Evaluation ......................................................................................... 42 3.2.3. WRF Evaluation ................................................................................................. 44 3.3. Maps of present-day spatial temperature variability ........................................................ 52 3.4. Climate Models ................................................................................................................ 56 3.4.1. Relationship between Big Meadows and Regional Climate Models .................. 56 3.4.2. Climate change projections for SNP using RCMs ............................................. 57 3.5. Downscaled climate change projections for SNP ............................................................ 63 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................... 69 Publications .......................................................................................................................................... 71 Conference Presentations ..................................................................................................................... 73 Student Reports .................................................................................................................................... 75 Literature Cited .................................................................................................................................... 77 Appendix A: Contents of DVD. ........................................................................................................... 81 iv Figures Page Figure 1. Summary of downscaling approach..................................................................................... 10 Figure 2. Location of SNP within Virginia (left panel). Right panel shows relative location of the habitats of P. shenandoah (orange shading) within SNP............................................. 11 Figure 3. Locations of Pinnacles and Big Meadows relative to the deployment locations of the HOBO data loggers. ................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4. Example of a HOBO temperature-humidity data logger, attached to a 2 m fence post and enclosed