the Socialist ISSN 1758-5708 Correspondent £3 The General Election Lessons for Labour

BrexIT Labour party & the working class

Nationalism in Scotland

After the general election - the Middle East faces down Latin America - a continent fights fight for Labour P4 the West P16 neo-liberalism P23

General election analysis from France - working class fight on Winning the Green New Deal P29 across the UK P6 - 15 the streets P20

www.thesocialistcorrespondent.org.uk Issue No 36 / Spring 2020 To contact The Editor of The Socialist Correspondent CONTENTS COMMENTARY [email protected] www.thesocialistcoreespondent.org.uk

4 After the Election - the fight for Labour 16 Middle East faces down the West It was the Brexit election and Labour Labour’s vote did hold up better in Jaunes protests which have been n Alex Davidson n Simon Korner could not escape this. In After the some places and there are now more going on for over a year. Now there Election - the fight for Labour, Alex MPs from the left of the party. Thou- are massive demonstrations and Davidson sets out how Jeremy sands of Labour activists, many of strikes against President Macron’s 8 North & Midlands have a second 20 France – working class fights on Corbyn was increasingly pressured them relatively new, got involved in proposed pension reforms. As Jean referendum the streets by the Remain majority in the party the campaign and gave it their all, in Auld explains in, France – working n Peter Latham n Jean Auld to abandon its commitment to horrible winter conditions. There are class fights on the streets, these respect the result of the referen- things to build on here. movements have begun to come 10 SNP dominates Scotland again 23 Latin America – a continent fights dum, a principled policy which had together and to represent many n Frieda Park neo-liberalism served it well in the 2017 election. There is still much to discuss regard- other demands. These mass working This shattered belief and trust in ing the way forward for Labour but class struggles are virtually unre- n Dan Morgan Leave voting areas in the north and the principal question across Britain ported in the media here. 12/13 London & the South - Little change midlands of England and in Wales. is: how can Labour rebuild in working n Brian Durrans 27 No to war, no to NATO! Although there were other factors in class communities? This means both Since the height of the so-called n Pat Turnbull Labour’s failure, the evidence is clear fighting locally for people’s interests, pink tide in Latin America, reaction- 14 Northern Ireland – DUP & Sinn Fein from the seats that were lost, that and having clear policy priorities for ary forces, backed by the United lose votes 29 Winning the Green New Deal its central problem was failing to a future Labour government which States, have been rolling back respect the Leave vote. people understand and which will progress. There have been coups, n Ernest Walker n Greg Kaser transform their lives. This is particu- constitutional/legal manoeuvres Our correspondents report on the larly urgent in Scotland to counter and electoral defeats. The chal- 15 Wales - Brexit lets in Tories 33 Where now for the Green Industrial very different character that the nationalism, and in Leave voting lenges remain massive, but despite n Frieda Park Revolution? election took across the country. areas in England and Wales. This will setbacks there is an up-surge in n Brian Durrans not be achieved unless Remainers are strikes and protests by working In the north of England, the prepared to accept the two votes to people across the continent, most midlands and Wales working class leave the EU - the referendum vote notably in Chile. In Latin America – Leave voters deserted Labour as it and the outcome of the election. The a continent in struggle, Dan Morgan Review had deserted them. worst thing Labour could do in these reports on tumultuous events in circumstances is to elect the right- different countries in the region. 35 Treason: Rebel Warriors and In Remain voting Scotland Labour wing architect of its shift towards Internationalist Traitors lost all the seats that it had gained remain, Sir Keir Starmer, as its next Middle East resists the n Brian Durrans at the 2017 election. With the Tories leader, or any of the other similar West also losing some seats, the Scottish candidates in the field. National Party has again asserted The West has caused untold suffer- its dominance over the political The Tories will not and cannot ing and chaos across the Middle East scene there. represent working class interests. with its illegal wars, sanctions and Over the next five years, it will interference. Iran is its number one By contrast in London and the south be necessary for people to fight enemy as it is central to a growing there was little change, but that was for their rights, services, jobs and resistance to the west and Israel. still disappointing as Labour lost communities. Labour, the trade This explains the illegal assassina- votes here too and failed to gain unions and other community and tion by the United States of General seats it was targeting. progressive forces need to prepare Soleimani, Iran’s key military leader. for this fight. In, Middle East faces down the West, Northern Ireland voted Remain but Simon Korner explores the forces at the majority of Remain voters come Elsewhere the working work and the changing balance of from the nationalist community class fight back power with Iran, Russia and Turkey and the majority of Leave voters playing increased roles. The situation Discussion, debate and author’s opinions - To encourage the broadest possible discussion and debate around the from the unionist side. This rein- While the doom-mongers in Britain is very volatile and the risk of war aims of exposing capitalism and promoting socialism, we hope our readers appreciate that not all opinions expressed forced the sectarian divide in the predict disaster and preach helpless- has been significantly increased by by individual authors are necessarily those of The Socialist Correspondent. election. ness, we can take heart and learn America’s provocative assassination lessons form what is happening else- of Soleimani. All the more need for Pictures - Unless otherwise stated all pictures are courtesy of CommonsWikimedia. Some of these will be attributed In the aftermath of the election where. It is not predictable what will a peace movement which is focused to an individual photographer. This does not mean that these individuals agree with the opinions expressed by indi- the prophets of doom are out in provoke people to fight back even on opposing the main cause of vidual authors of The Socialist Correspondent. force attempting to both demoral- after they have suffered defeats. current and future wars - interven- ise people and undermine the case tion by the west, the US and Israel. Further information - http://commons.wikimedia.org for a left-wing successor to Jeremy In France it was petrol price rises Corbyn as Labour leader. However, that initially sparked the Gilets

2 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Autumn 2019 Autumn 2019 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 3 on the EU. Sir Keir Starmer led this Brexit Done” resonated with many When it became clear that there campaign inside the Labour Party people fed up with the issue drag- would be no electoral agreement After the election and, although resisted by Jeremy ging on for so long as well as those with the Tories Nigel Farage then Corbyn, eventually secured a change who had voted to leave the EU. The withdrew all Brexit Party candi- of position, largely due to the domi- Tories’ message was clear and in dates standing in Tory held seats. the fight for LABOUR nant Remainer position held by the stark contrast to Labour’s weak and The Brexit Party stood candidates in overwhelming majority within the mixed message. Labour held seats and Farage made Parliamentary Labour Party and also it clear that this was to take Leave among Corbyn supporters. It should The Tories rejected an arrangement voters away from Labour. Some oth- be noted that many people who had with the newly formed Brexit Party, er previous Labour voters who voted voted Remain in the Referendum which effectively replaced UKIP. Remain in the Referendum may accepted the result and expected it to be carried through. Durham North West - Tory gain from Labour The pressure, including from the so-called People’s Vote campaign, Tory majority: 1144 (55.1% voted Leave in 2016) meant that the Labour Party went Party No of votes % vote share % change from 2017 election into the 2019 General Election say- ing that they would re-negotiate Tory 19990 41.9 +7.5 Brexit and put it to another referen- dum. Several leading Labour Shad- Labour 18846 39.5 -13.3 ow Cabinet members including Keir Brexit 3193 6.7 +6.7 Starmer and Emily Thornberry very publicly said, that in this second Lib Dem 2831 5.9 -1.2 referendum, they would campaign to remain in the EU. While Jeremy Turnout 66% Corbyn stated that he would adopt a neutral position, an understand- able solution in a vexed situation, his Shadow Chancellor John McDon- bury North - Tory gain from Labour nell, announced he would campaign Tory majority: 105 (55.7% voted Leave in 2016) for remain in a second referendum. This public stance of declaring that Party No of votes % vote share % change from 2017 election they would campaign to remain in a second referendum by leading Tory 21660 46.2 +1.8 Labour figures strained the credibil- Labour 21555 46 -7.6 Jeremy Corbyn in Nottingham alongside statue of Robin Hood ity of the policy, especially in Leave- voting Labour seats in the north of lib dem 1584 3.4 +1.5 England and the Midlands. brexit 1240 2.6 +2.6 by Alex Davidson Boris Johnson replaced Mrs May as Tory leader and Prime Minister and Turnout 68.1% The 2019 British General Election The explanation for Labour’s defeat Tories fought the election on the slo- he returned to Parliament with a was mainly about Brexit. The Tories’ lies mainly in the Brexit story of the gan “Strong and Stable”. Against the ‘not so new’ deal negotiated with slogan of “Get Brexit Done” won the last three and half years. Other fac- predictions of the polls, the main- the EU. When Parliament continued day where it counted. 52 of Labour’s tors cannot be discounted including stream media and the right-wing to thwart the passage of the Bill, bolton north east - Tory gain from Labour lost 60 seats were in Leave voting the decline of mining and manufac- Parliamentary Labour Party, Corbyn Johnson expelled the Tories who Tory majority: 378 (58.1% voted Leave in 2016) areas in England and Wales in the turing over decades in the north of increased the share of the Labour opposed him and forced a General 2016 EU Referendum. Of the other England and the relentless demoni- vote and removed the Tory majority Election on his terms. Party No of votes % vote share % change from 2017 election eight losses, 6 were in Scotland. [1] sation of Jeremy Corbyn. in the House of Commons. Theresa The other two seats lost were in May eventually and reluctantly “Get Brexit Done” Tory 19759 45.4 +3.2 Remain voting areas of England: Immediately following the 2016 EU resigned as Prime Minister having Labour 19381 44.5 -6.1 Kensington in London, traditionally referendum, Labour adopted the failed spectacularly to get her EU Dominic Cummings, who master- Tory; and Stroud, where the Liberal position of accepting and respecting Withdrawal Bill through Parliament. minded the main Leave campaign lib dem 1880 4.3 +4.5 Democrats stood down in favour of the result and went into the 2017 in the EU referendum, had been the Greens as part of the so-called General Election fighting on an anti- Meanwhile there was mounting brought in to 10 Downing Street brexit 1847 4.2 +1.3 Remain Alliance, allowing the Tories austerity platform with the slogan pressure on the Labour Party leader- as Chief Special Adviser to Prime to win. [2] “For the Many not the Few”. The ship to call for a second referendum Minister Johnson. His slogan “Get Turnout 64.5%

4 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 5 have given their vote to the main role and thus took no responsibility promised timetable than to nego- cal consciousness will develop such Remain party, the Liberal Democrats. wolverhampton north east - Tory gain from Labour for the undermining and eventual tiate a radical trade deal with an that socialist politics would gain However, all estimates suggest these Tory majority: 4080 (67.7% voted Leave in 2016) changing of Labour’s position from intransigent EU. That would mean many more adherents and activists. were many fewer than the Labour that of accepting and respecting the staying very close to the EU whilst Victories can and need to be won Leave votes given to the Tories and Party No of votes % vote share % change from 2017 election 2016 Referendum result. not within it. This may be the best and not just in elections. the Brexit Party. position achievable in the short Tory 17722 51.7 +11.4 During the election of the next term acceptable to British ruling Labour’s abandonment of its com- Labour leader the right-wing will circles, whose dominant position Labour 13642 39.8 -13.0 mitment to respect the result of the pressurise candidates to adopt a pro- has been to remain in the EU. [1] The election was fought on different ground in Scotland – see separate article, SNP dominates Referendum led to its loss of seats brexit 1354 3.9 +3.9 western position in terms of interna- Scotland again by Frieda Park in this issue. in Leave-voting constituencies. In tional policy, including support for In terms of the Labour Party, the EU lib dem 960 2.8 +1.2 these constituencies the Brexit Israel and following the USA into war; will remain an Achilles heel until [2] Party picked up significant Labour a watering down of the Manifesto such time as the EU is seen for what Stroud: 54.1% voted Leave in 2016 Turnout 55.4% Leave voters who probably could commitments on public ownership it is, that is a Eurocentric capital- Tory gain from Labour. not bring themselves to vote Tory - and taxing the rich; as well as taking ist organisation which imposes Tory majority 3,840 yet the effect was the same, work- a pro-EU position. Keir Starmer and bad deals on developing countries, Votes - Tory 47.9% (+2%) ing for the Tories (see tables on P5). then some of it will stick. The capi- credible government.” In conclusion Jess Phillips won’t have a problem in treats migrants appallingly, engages Labour 42.1% (-4.9%) talist mainstream media are well he said that “Labour can keep to the agreeing to that! in war and forces neo-liberal poli- Green 7.5% (+5.3%) In other constituencies the Tories aware of this. programme of Jeremy Corbyn with cies on its citizens. Turnout 78% won with greater majorities and a new leader in which case it is fin- Brexit will not go away didn’t need the assistance of the Not surprisingly following Labour’s ished or it can re-unite the Labour The last number of years have [3] Tony Blair lecture: https://www.youtube.comwat Brexit Party. Many of these were in defeat, right-wing Labour are on a and Liberal traditions”. His lecture The issue of Brexit is not going to consumed the Labour Party and its ch?v=I3grOfZ7518&feature=emb_rel_pause areas with large Leave vote majori- renewed offensive to change the traced the political history of the go away. The Tory government will members with referenda, elections Blair’s acolytes following his narrative include ties, where the turnout was often policies and leadership of the party. Liberal and Labour Parties from the now be going into negotiations with and internal feuds. The domination Lord Andrew Adonis, who said on 29 December, low with many previous Labour vot- “Right-wing” is never the term used nineteenth century and lamented the EU to agree a trade deal. John- of electoralism over campaigning “Corbyn and Corbynism have to be completely ers staying at home. Wolverhamp- by the mainstream media as they the division among “progressives”. son has promised to conclude this and supporting workers’ struggles eradicated if Labour is to become an electable ton North East is one example (see prefer “moderate” or “centre-left”. within one year. As trade deals can within Labour over decades is one democratic socialist party”. Peter Mandelson, in an table above right) However, let us be clear, it is Labour’s He regaled his audience with be highly complex, many commen- of its great weaknesses. However, interview with the Financial Times during the Doha Forum on 14 December 2019, said, “the far left New Labour’s attempt to re-unite right-wing, which is on the offen- tators think this is not doable within if struggle were to be lifted against programme that was put forward is never going to If the ultra-Remainers, like Keir sive and hopes to swing or at least these traditions and called for that timescale. Perhaps Johnson the Tory government’s (and the be supported by enough voters to get us elected. Starmer, had got their way and confuse many Labour members, sup- this approach to be taken again by will be more inclined to keep to the EU’s) policies then class and politi- So much is clear and demonstrated. Labour had adopted a clear and firm porters and voters that the explana- the Labour Party. He warned that Remain position on the EU then it is tion for Labour’s defeat was not the “Labour can keep to the programme likely that more Labour seats would issue of Brexit. They hope to convince of Jeremy Corbyn with a new leader have been lost. people that the problem lay with Cor- in which case it is finished” and byn’s leadership, and not just that, will need to be replaced by a new The fight for Labour but also with Labour’s policies. party. Blair referred positively to The Socialist Correspondent on Facebook Roy Jenkins in this context. It was There is now a battle between the Tony Blair, architect of New Labour Jenkins who led a breakaway from Follow and like the new Socialist Correspondent Facebook page for up to right and left in the Labour Party and former Prime Minister, set out the Labour Party to form the Social to explain the causes of Labour’s his explanation for the election Democratic Party (SDP). Having the minute comment and analysis. Search @socialistcorrespondent defeat in the General Election. defeat, and provided the narrative damaged the Labour Party, the SDP Right-wing Labour never accepted to be followed by his acolytes, in a eventually folded and with the Corbyn as leader nor the left poli- lecture organised by his Institute Liberals formed what is now the cies developed under his leader- for Global Governance a few days Liberal Democrats. He neglected to ship. Having failed to remove him after the election. [3] He said that mention that the defectors from as leader they continually under- Corbyn was seen by people as “fun- the Labour Party (Chukka Umunna, mined his leadership in a variety damentally opposing what Britain Luciana Berger etc), who stood in of ways including the charge of and western countries stand for. this General Election as Liberal anti-semitism. This charge of anti- He personified politically an idea of Democrats all failed to win. The Socialist Correspondent Podcasts semitism has been pursued daily by random quasi-revolutionary social- the Jewish Labour Movement and ism mixing far-left economic policy He did mention Brexit but gave a Selected articles from each edition of The Socialist Correspondent are available the Parliamentary Labour Friends and deep hostility to western for- very unconvincing and distorted of Israel. The capitalist mainstream eign policy”. He went on to say that view of its effect on the result. And, as Podcasts. Search Socialist Correspondent on iTunes or SoundCloud. media has focused on this while “the takeover of the Labour Party by of course, he didn’t refer to the cam- They can also be accessed via our website. www.thesocialistcorrespondent.org.uk barely reporting Islamophobia in the far-left turned it into a glorified paign for a second referendum in the Tory Party. It is a well-worn say- protest movement with cult trim- which he and his former spin-doctor, ing that if enough mud is thrown mings, utterly incapable of being a Alistair Campbell, played a leading

6 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 7 the “need” for austerity. The earlier strong” [2]. Three new Labour MP’s In spite of everything the good vot- public understanding that corporate were elected, Kim Johnson being the ers of the north and midlands have North & Midlands and private wealth, the economic city’s first black MP with a majority given the ruling classes of Britain base, should be taxed to provide of 37,043 in Riverside. Dan Carden in and corporate Europe the biggest a social superstructure in health, Walton has a majority of 30,520; in kick in the teeth in recent history. have a second referendum housing, education, social care and Wavertree, Paula Barker has 27,085, They have done it with consistency transport etc has become so eroded while in West Derby Ian Byrne has and determination, whatever the by Peter Latham as to be outside the experience of 29,974. All four backed Jeremy Cor- cost on other questions, and done younger voters. It is hard to persuade byn strongly, saying that the focus on it on their own initiative without What has happened is so clear, even nationals resident in Britain. It was a Mixed messages people coping with their own debt nationalisation, the NHS and schools much help from organised labour, allowing for interpretation. In one serious error for Rebecca Long-Bailey, that the Government should borrow resonated with voters. Only Maria the trade unions, most Labour party Labour seat after another many vot- the Shadow Business Secretary, to Before the election was called, the to build council houses for example, Eagle for Garston and Halewood, a activists, and the Shadow Cabinet. ers deserted their own party to hit speak up for this idea a week before anti-austerity message was on the never mind that this was how it was Corbyn critic, had doubts. Her major- This a remarkable fact. back against the neglect of their vital polling day. back foot compared with 2017. done before in worse conditions. ity is 31,624. interests, and even their very exist- Confusion reigned. Do I vote Tory to People are having difficulty seeing a An analogy: the military in combat ence. High profile losses crossed the The Shadow Cabinet were warned. come out of the EU, or vote Labour future beyond austerity in the media Over in Manchester, Labour majorities have orders to “attack at all costs”. political spectrum in Labour: Dennis Last June, after the local elections, for a better life? I want both. It was blizzard. Yet Labour’s proposals are were also high: in Central 29,089; in Voters have done something similar. Skinner was beaten in Bolsover, the European elections, and the palpable when canvassing. There feasible and to our benefit. Gorton 30,339; in Withington 28,005; Caroline Flint in Don Valley, Laura Peterborough by-election, 26 Labour were other factors too. In Barnsley for in Blackley and Broughton 14,302; and Smith in Crewe and Nantwich, Laura MP’s from Leave-voting constituen- instance Jeremy Corbyn had almost Defeats and successes in Wythenshaw and Sale East 10,396. [1] www.thenorthernecho.co.uk 16 June 2016 Pidcock in Durham North West, and no personal support outside activ- Labour retained Birmingham with big

Mary Creagh in Wakefield. Other ist circles. People did not say why. Ironically, Blyth Valley was the majorities. In Hall Green, Tahir Ali has [2] www.liverpoolecho.co.uk Nick Tyrrell, Labour seats went Tory in Burnley, But he does not sound or look like first to go Conservative on elec- 28,508; in Hodge Hill, Liam Byrne has 13 December 2019 Blackpool, Bolton, Bury, Derby someone from the north or midlands. tion night, by only 612 votes. Of 29,655; in Ladywood, Shabana Mah- North, Dewsbury, Dudley North, Many voters just wrote him off as 60 seats lost by Labour, 45 were in mood has 28,582. Three other Labour Great Grimsby, Keighley, Lincoln, another London do-gooder. For such the midlands and the north. All 45 MP’s have majorities over 10,000. Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedge- a decent leader, with the best politics without exception voted Leave in From field, Stoke-on-Trent, Warrington, in decades and a mass following in the 2016 referendum. The bigger Labour not finished The Socialist West Bromwich, Wolverhampton some circles, this a great shame, but the Leave majority, the more voters and Workington. it must be faced. abandoned Labour, according to a Labour is certainly not finished on Correspondent Financial Times analysis. these figures as some pretend. Many Despite the Brexit Party snapping at The campaign sagged as the leader- millions have voted for the radical 10 years ago Labour’s heels in many seats, the ship made one radical announce- However, the large Labour majori- manifesto. It has mass appeal, espe- Conservatives offered a quick Leave ment after another, but without ties in city constituencies are worth cially where good local candidates “The British government… and benefitted massively. Trouble insistent explanation that the noting. Paul Blomfield in Sheffield are coming forward. This is a good pumped billions into the City to brewed early in the north-east. A economy would stand it and prosper. Central has a majority of 27,612 over start for the future. ‘nationalise’ or otherwise prop week before the EU referendum in The message became blurred and his Conservative runner-up. He is up tottering establishments. June 2016, 25 of the regions 26 Labour less credible, while proposals were a Remainer in a Leave-voting area. The Labour vote has done better in That money had to be borrowed MP’s signed an open letter to the plucked like rabbits out of a hat, Gill Furness for Sheffield Hillsbor- the big cities than in smaller former Dennis Skinner defeated in Bolsover from – the City! That is, it went Northern Echo calling for people to seemingly unrelated to an overall ough and Brightside has a majority coalfield and industrial towns. straight back where it came vote to Remain in the EU [1]. Only cies wrote to Jeremy Corbyn to urge approach. It became clear when can- of 12,274 over the Conservative. In The reasons for this need careful Ronnie Campbell, MP for Blyth Val- backing for a Leave deal before the vassing that this was a mistake, as Leeds North West, Alex Sobel, who thought, as the Blairite tendency is from, only now with interest ley, did not sign it. He stood down at 31st October. They stated clearly many people simply did not believe supports EU integration, more than exploiting this question to suit their attached to it. The ideologists the 2017 general election. that “a commitment to a second that these things could be afforded. doubled his majority to 10,649, while agenda. Some may give city-based of the bourgeoisie usually decry referendum would be toxic to our Fewer radical proposals, but better Hilary Benn in Leeds Central, also regeneration the credit for this, but state handouts to failing busi- In 2016 on a high turnout, people bedrock labour voters, driving a argued with the economic need for for Remain, won a majority of 19,270 with wealth failing to trickle down nesses on the grounds that it voted to leave the European Union. wedge between them and our Party, them repeatedly spelt out, would over the Conservative. Richard Bur- to the poor other factors should be constitutes ‘interference’ in the In 2017, promising to respect the jeopardising our role as a Party of have been better. gon (Leeds East), a Corbyn supporter considered. workings of the market. But result of the referendum, Labour’s the whole nation and giving the pop- who supports more EU integration, the bourgeoisie itself has never vote exceeded expectations. By 2019, ulist right an even greater platform Here lies a lesson: since the 2008 polled a reduced majority of 5,531 Radical thought can flourish more objected to state handouts - so Labour was facing both ways. Work- in our heartlands.” To no avail. Back crash people have been deliberately over the Conservative. In Newcastle- easily in cities, but in towns and long as they come to them.” ing class voters turned away from in March, Stephanie Peacock, MP for misled by the establishment. The upon-Tyne two of the four seats ex-mining villages with less industry Labour en masse in a conscious effort Barnsley East, a Remainer and one Government budget has been spoken retained Labour majorities of well conservative feelings may persist to resolve the Brexit crisis themselves of the 26, had resigned as a Labour of as if it were similar to the perform- over 10,000. amongst working class people. A Winter 2010 – Quantitative eas- in their own interests. whip to be free to vote against a sec- ance of the productive economy. way forward here must be found. ing: printing money to throw at ond referendum. It did some good The bankers were bailed out and the Labour did well in Liverpool, where Community and trade union work bankers The 2019 Labour Conference had as she was re-elected, albeit with a price tag appeared in the govern- “the city once again bucked national by supporters of Labour’s manifesto Leslie Masters decided to extend voting rights to EU reduced majority. ment’s balance sheet as a cost, hence trends and the party’s vote held offers hope.

8 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 9 The Brexit Party were irrelevant Murray in Edinburgh trying to situate record in government is appalling, making no significant impact in any themselves as an alternative lead- with incompetent Health Secretaries of the 15 seats they contested and ership. As in other parts of the UK, presiding over declining standards achieving 0.5% of the vote. attacks from the right do not help the in the NHS and the cover up of child party win the confidence of voters. deaths in the new gigantic flagship The Greens achieved a modest hospital in Glasgow. Educational increase in overall votes of 0.8% In Scotland Labour was not only standards continue to head down- squeezed by Brexit, but also by the wards and services are falling apart. Why? question of independence. In the EU referendum Scotland voted strongly Whilst there was a glimmer of hope We don’t know for certain why to Remain 62% versus 38% for Leave. opened up at the 2017 election that people voted the way they did and Whilst initially that may have led to Labour might win at Westminster anecdotal feedback from canvass- some disaffection among Leave sup- that hope had weakened in 2019. ing found electors fairly tight lipped porting SNP voters the SNP managed There was a widespread belief in about how they were going to vote to pull off the feat of becoming the Scotland that voting SNP was fine and why. Many were “undecided” but party of Remain in Scotland whilst because it would be supportive of clearly voted SNP on the day, wheth- also retaining many of those Leav- a Corbyn government anyway. But er that had been their unstated inten- ers. If Scotland is, as Nicola Sturgeon as the prospect of a Labour defeat tion all along or not. The result was endlessly repeats, “being dragged became more likely, Scots opted not for the want of effort by Labour out the EU against its will”, then that for what they regarded as the safe activists, particularly on the left, boosts the argument for independ- anti-Tory vote – the SNP. This was with people turning out in the most ence. It seems independence matters influenced by Brexit, opposition to appalling weather to canvass. There more to Leave voting SNP support- austerity and support for independ- were a number of good left-wing can- ers than Brexit so they will vote SNP ence. Ironically, however, the vote for didates with strong campaign teams, knowing that it’s Remain stance may the SNP in Scotland makes the defeat positive materials representing the bring independence closer. Since the of the Tories harder as Labour is Prime Minister Boris Johnson and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon party’s main policies, trade union EU referendum the SNP has made weakened and will struggle to return and community support and local support for the EU a badge of Scot- enough MPs to form a government. roots. At the end of the day this only tishness scooping up a big chunk of Unfortunately, voters in Scotland made a marginal difference in some the Remain vote. tend not to see this, regarding Labour SNP DOMINATES places. For example, in neighbouring versus the Tories as something that constituencies; Glasgow South had Scottish Labour adopted a position in is happening in a different country. a former leader of Scottish Labour advance of the election of supporting as the candidate (very much a figure Remain and a second referendum. Saltires, Union Jacks & SCOTLAND AGAIN from the past), Johann Lamont, and This seems to have had little impact Red flags in Glasgow South West, Matt Kerr, on how it fared. This was different by Frieda Park a Corbyn supporter stood. The vote from the UK position which added to share for Lamont fell by 7.4% and for Labour’s confused message on Brexit. The SNP now claims that it has The main headlines from the General The second party in Scotland, the Labour lost deposits) and had double Kerr by 5.9%. To make things worse it shot itself mandate for independence based election in Scotland were: The resur- Conservatives, lost 7 seats reducing digit declines in 16 seats. Many of in the foot by failing to have a clear on its success at this election. But gence of the Scottish National Party their number to 6. However, it had the worst results can be accounted It is a reasonable assumption that stance on independence, with John it is not at all clear that voters were (SNP); Labour’s poor performance; a been thought that they might have for by tactical voting to defeat the most of Labour’s lost votes went to McDonnell at the Edinburgh Festival endorsing that, as they were also decline in Tory fortunes; a small up- fared even worse after Johnson’s Tories or Lib Dems where the SNP the SNP. There was also a higher blithely conceding that there should voting on other issues. The sense turn for the Lib Dems overshadowed election as leader which had prompt- candidate was seen to have a better turn-out reflecting SNP supporters be a second referendum if it was the on the doorstep was not that people by the defeat of their UK leader, Jo ed the pro-Remain Scottish leader chance of winning. In some places who had not voted at the last election will of the Scottish people. The fur- were voting SNP to through a strong Swinson; and the failure of the Brexit Ruth Davidson to step down. the number voting Labour held up, doing so this time. ther qualifications and lack of clarity belief in independence. However, the Party to make any impact. but the SNP still did better because on what that meant made Labour SNP will certainly use this opportu- Labour had another miserable elec- of the higher turn-out. Why did this shift happen? Labour look weak. nity to build support for independ- The state of the parties toral outing losing all 6 of the seats failed to build on and consolidate ence so that needs to be robustly it had gained at the 2015 election, The Lib Dems only slightly increased its very modest improved perform- The Scottish media give the SNP an countered. The left needs to more The SNP won 48 seats out of 59, leaving only one MP, Ian Mur- their vote and retained the same ance from the 2017 election, where, easy ride. Despite scandals including effectively frame its arguments and though one of their elected MPs had ray, who represents a well-healed number of seats. Though they won although it gained 6 seats, this was the forthcoming trial of former leader policies in class terms and expose actually been suspended from the constituency in Edinburgh where he one from the SNP they also lost Jo achieved by adding less than 10,000 and First Minister Alex Salmon on the SNP’s failing New Labour-style party for alleged anti-semitic com- relies on Tory tactical votes aimed Swinson in Dunbartonshire East. In a votes and was mainly due to a charges of attempted rape and sexual policies. Over the years, increased ments. They reasserted their recent at keeping out the SNP. Overall mini-referendum on her leadership decline in SNP support. Whilst the assault and the resignation of the powers over domestic policy and tax dominance of Scottish politics, Labour lost 8.5% share of the vote. In 80.3% of the electorate turned out to left has made progress in the party Lord Provost of Glasgow who maxed have been devolved to the Scottish increasing their tally of seats by 13 a number of seats it came 4th, lost vote there with the SNP taking 37.1% the right remains strong, with MSP out her expenses on clothes and Parliament, yet the best that the SNP and gaining 45% of the vote. its deposit in 6 (half the UK total of and winning by 149 votes. Anas Sarwar in Glasgow and MP Ian shoes nothing seems to stick. Their can say about our declining econo-

10 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 11 my and welfare provision is that we Smith holds a number of paid posi- from other, more important issues. are not as bad as England. On this tions on public sector boards as well The left should not get caught up in evidence, independence provides no as sitting on the Nicola Sturgeon’s this. In the first place it is not clear London & the south solution to the urgent problems fac- standing council on Europe. It is that supporting a second referen- ing the Scottish working class. unsurprising then, but still depress- dum will be massively popular. ing, that he is now openly backing Secondly focusing on constitutional little change... Tragically Labour’s defeat in Scot- a second referendum on independ- arguments and falling in behind land has given rise to the opposite ence. Monica Lennon, Labour Shad- another referendum will only serve approach by some on the left of ow Secretary for Health and Sport, to make Labour a support act for the party. This is partly a reaction has called for a separate Scottish the SNP, which would truly call into which accepts the line that people in Labour Party, making its own policy question the logic of its existence. Scotland want another referendum, and being self-financing. Given Scot- Labour would be increasingly mar- and partly it stems from the strand tish Labour’s weakness this seems ginalised and, without solid argu- of nationalist sentiment which has like a remedy more likely to kill than ments opposing the SNP’s agenda, a long history in the party and the cure the patient. independence would be more likely. labour movement. Voters need a distinctive reason to In the short term there is no chance support Labour. It needs to be dif- Some leaders of the Scottish Trades of Johnson’s government granting ferent from the SNP. The SNP is the Union Congress have long been in the Scottish Government the power party of nationalism. Labour can- the pocket of the SNP. It gets more to hold another referendum. This not be a leftish version of that and than two thirds of its income from suits both sides nicely as they can thrive. Labour needs to be the party the Scottish Government and its continue to argue about constitu- of Socialism - something the SNP Labour activists in Kensington and Chelsea (retiring) General Secretary Grahame tional matters distracting voters will never be.

by Brian Durrans LONDON & THE SOUTH - little change...* In London, Labour retained margin- any changes to London seats, and & Devonport) and in ten of the rest als like Battersea and Dagenham & except for Kensington alone the which voted Remain, the Leave vote CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIBERAL UKIP Rainham, held onto safer seats but LibDems didn’t change the outcome was above 40%. [1] Interpreting these DEMOCRATS with lower majorities, yet won only where Labour and Tories were the outcomes is a challenge but what- Putney. In 2017 it gained Kensington main contenders. ever the extent of the “Brexit factor” YEAR REGION TURNOUT VOTES (+/- VOTES (+/- VOTES (+/- VOTES (+/- by a mere 20 votes but has now lost - compared with other issues like the SHARE SHARE SHARE SHARE it to the Tories by 150 votes. This It was much the same picture in the NHS and economic plans on which was made possible by the LibDem rest of the south, where Labour did Labour focused its efforts - it seems 2019 London 67.3% 1,205 (+1.1%) 1,813 (-6.4%) 563 (+6.1%) - candidate, a former Tory Remainer both slightly worse (not gaining a mainly to have reinforced the Party whose penance for jumping ship was seat) and slightly better (not losing in seats it already held in this part of 2019 South 71.1% 4,125 (+0.8%) 1,743 (-6.2%) 967 (+5.5%) - to split the anti-Tory vote. Not even one) than in London but much better the country where the only serious being a vocal Remainer in a constitu- than in the calamitous perform- competition were Tories. ency that voted 2:1 Remain in 2016 ance in its northern “Red Wall”. In 2017 London 70.1% 1,269 (-1.7%) 2,087 (+10.8%) 337 (+1.1%) - was enough to save Labour’s Emma southern England outside London, The votes and changes in vote-share Dent Coad. Labour also failed to dis- Labour retained fourteen seats, in London and the south over the 2017 South 69.1% 4,069 (+4.1%) 2,197 (+10.9%) 933 (+1.0%) - lodge former Conservative leader and mostly with turnouts well above last four general elections are shown reviled architect of Universal Credit the national average and in ten of in the accompanying table* - see P12 2015 London 65.4% 1,233 (+0.3%) 1,545 (+7.3%) 273 (-14.4%) 287 (+6.4%) Iain Duncan Smith from Chingford them with over half the vote. In all opposite. [2] & Woodford Green which had been fourteen, the Conservative candidate 2015 South 69.1% 3,554 (+2.6%) 1,306 (+1.4%) 843 (-18.7%) 1,032 (+9.9%) almost evenly split between Leave came second and the LibDem trailed [1] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ and Remain in the referendum. a poor third, gaining too few votes to parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit- have a made a difference even if all votes-by-constituency/ 2010 London 64.6% 1,175 (+2.6%) 1,246 (-2.3%) 752 (+0.2%) 59 (+0.3%) Overall, there was little change to those votes had “tactically” gone to [2] Data for 2019 are mainly from the BBC. Data for London seats. The Conservatives the Tory instead. These were mainly earlier years are from several sources, including 2010 South 68.6% 3,329 (+4.6%) 1,125 (-7.8%) 2,088 (+1.5%) 145 (+0.9%) lost two and won two, equally to cities or larger towns with younger YouGov, Wikipedia and the Electoral Reform Soci- and from Labour and the LibDems. (some including students) and more ety. In the case of votes cast, figures for southern Neither Green nor Brexit Parties working-class voters than in more England are combined from SE and SW regions; General Election Results in London and Southern England 2010 – 2019 for main parties nor the long-running pernicious rural seats in the same region. Only regarding turnout and changes in vote share, the average of these two regional figures, rounded attacks on Labour and Corbyn over three of these Labour-held constitu- (Turnout = % of eligible voters; Actual votes rounded to nearest 1,000; up to a single decimal place. The regional figures alleged anti-semitism in the Party, encies voted Leave in 2016 (Slough, ignore any changes in constituency boundaries (+/- share) = change in party’s share of vote since previous GE) or weakness towards it, resulted in Portsmouth South, Plymouth Sutton between elections.

12 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 13 mon, however the seat fell to Stephen Sandwiched between are Alliance their view would lead to an “econom- Farry of the Alliance Party. The fact who do not declare either position. ic united Ireland”. Northern Ireland that three unionists of varying hues stood and amassed more votes than Brexit The DUP and SF did not have a good Farry shows that if one single candi- election despite the latter’s victory DUP & Sinn Fein lose votes date had stood there could have been Sinn Fein festooned areas with post- in North Belfast. Whilst the defeat of a different result. ers predicting that Brexit will cause the two DUP members is welcome, food, electricity, fuel, holiday prices to we have to remember the new MP’s by Ernest Walker Overall figures show that SF got rise and anything else that you can attending Westminster are all fervent 22.8% of the total vote, down 6.7%; think of. supporters of the European Union. Like the UK, Brexit played a major The other defeat for the DUP was take its seats. This policy has come in DUP got 30.6% down 5.4%; SDLP part here, some would say it played in South Belfast where the Social for criticism in recent times and no 14.9% up 3.1%; Ulster Unionists During the election campaign a (Ernest Walker in a member of the Com- the only part, unlike the UK though Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) doubt would have affected the result got 11.7% an increase of 1.4%. The thousand unionists attended a “Rally munist Party of Ireland and contributes to sectarianism is never far away. regained a seat that they had held in Foyle. Alliance Party got 16.8 up 8.8%. The for the Union” and heard speeches its newspaper, Unity, each week. He lives Indeed one political commentator for some years, losing to the DUP’s combined Unionist vote was 42.3% denouncing Johnson’s withdrawal in North Belfast). wrote that the election would be the Emma Little-Pengelly in 2017. Whilst Other results in Belfast did not show the total of the nationalist vote 37.7% deal as the “betrayal act” which in most sectarian ever, “and that’s say- the SDLP stood aside in North Belfast, much in the way of surprises. The ing something”. The 2016 EU referen- Sinn Fein stood down in South Bel- DUP’s Gavin Robinson retained his dum broke down on sectarian lines fast as did the Green Party, in order seat in East Belfast, but his main with the Remain vote coming mainly to maximise the Remain vote. The opponent, Alliance Party leader, from the nationalist community and leader of the Green Party even signed Naomi Long, winner of a seat in the the Leave vote from the unionist the SDLP candidate, Clare Hanna’s, EU elections cut his majority from WALES one. In the General election, what we nomination papers. Hanna won a 8,000 to just fewer than 2,000. Sinn saw in the constituencies of North resounding victory with a majority of Fein also retained its seat in West and South Belfast were nationalist over 15,000. Belfast but saw its vote reduced. The parties standing aside to allow the SF candidate, Paul Maskey, did secure Brexit lets other a better chance of winning. The The victory in north Belfast was nearly 51% of the vote with a 14,000 fact that the aim was to defeat the however tempered by the loss of the majority, but interestingly People pro-Brexit Democratic Unionist Party Foyle seat in County Derry, where Before Profit (PBP) candidate Gerry in Tories (DUP) gave it that sectarian mode. SDLP leader Colm Eastwood trounced Carroll, who is also a Member of the Many unionists would have seen it SF sitting member Elisha McCallison Northern Irish Assembly, obtained that way especially when the Ulster securing a 17,000 plus majority. Sig- 6,194 votes an increase of 2000. Defence Association (UDA) urged its nificantly the SDLP vote went up by People Before Profit came out of the members to vote for the DUP and 17.7% whilst SF dropped by a whack- Socialist Workers Party and is active by Frieda Park Arlene Foster attributed their two ing 19%. One of the main themes of in both N Ireland & the Republic. It defeats to nationalist parties ganging the SDLP campaign was the absten- has to be said that not for the first Wales voted Leave in the EU referen- up on them. tionist policy of SF which stands in time PBP and Carroll have been the dum and as with Leave voting areas Westminster elections but does not victim of a nasty campaign from SF in England Labour paid the price at Winners and losers especially on the issue of Brexit. this general election for its failure Nigel Dodds - loser... to honour its promise to respect Labour activists in Wales The loss of deputy leader Nigel Dodds Other areas outside Belfast saw no that vote. Labour lost 6 seats to the to Sinn Fein’s (SF) John Finucane was changes with SF retaining Mid-Ulster, Tories – the only seats to change a severe blow to them. It was not a West Tyrone, South Down Newry and hands. As a share of the vote Labour There were a few seats where the vote and the lost seats should be a two-horse race as the Alliance Party Armagh. They also retained Ferman- went down by 8%, the Tories up by Labour vote held up well, but even wake-up call. It would be folly to (AP) also stood a candidate and had agh and South Tyrone but by just 57 2.5% and the Brexit Party took 5.4%. where it won generally its vote was think that lost voters will be easily declared prior to the elections that votes from the UUP. Their candidate, It should be borne in mind that the down substantially. As well as losing won back. Labour also came under they would not stand aside in order Michelle Gildernew’s vote was down Brexit Party did not stand every- votes to the Leave parties Labour sustained attack during the election to maximise the Remain vote. “We by over 3,200 votes from 2017. Signifi- where and it got a much higher vote likely also lost some votes to Remain for its record in power in the Welsh do not do pacts” was their statement. cantly the DUP stood aside in order in some seats fulfilling its function parties, though this was not a criti- Assembly, especially on the NHS. The Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) had to maximise the unionist vote and it of taking the Labour vote to enable cal factor in its defeats. Turnout was Mark Drakeford the First Minister declared its intentions to contest all nearly paid off, The DUP was suc- the Tories to win. also down which would account for has been outspokenly pro-EU which constituencies but stood down at the cessful in the constituencies in Upper some other lost votes for Labour. did not help. Labour in Wales must last minute in North Belfast with the Bann Lagan Valley, Strangford, East Plaid Cymru failed to make any think about how it delivers more belief that certain people had leaned Antrim and Ian Paisley Jnr’s strong- headway, retaining 4 seats with What about the future for Labour effectively for the people of Wales on them. Obviously one unionist can- hold of North Antrim, albeit with a a slightly decreased vote share. in Wales? Labour is still the big- and respects this second vote in didate was preferable to two with the loss of 8,000 votes. The DUP was hop- The Lib Dems and the Greens both gest party with 22 seats as against favour of Leave. possibility of splitting the vote. In the ing to gain the seat vacated by inde- slightly increased their share by 14 for the Tories and 4 for Plaid event it did not matter. pendent unionist Lady Sylvia Her- 1.5% and 0.75% respectively. Cymru. But the decline in the Labour

14 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 15 Iraq which fought ISIS, with close ties to the US military. His removal headed Middle East In Iraq, anti-American feeling has that off. The US disapproves of been given a huge impetus by the Prime Minister Mahdi’s plans to buy killing of Soleimani. The assassina- Russian S-400 air defences and do a tion followed the US bombing of one major oil deal with China. They also faces down the West of the Iraqi PMUs, Khataib Hezbol- dislike his award of a multi-million lah, which lost around 20 of its fight- dollar electricity deal to Germany’s ers. This attack led to thousands of Siemens rather than to General by Simon Korner Iraqis storming the US embassy Electric, his refusal to sign off a $3 compound in Baghdad’s heavily billion deal with Exxon, his partial An overview of Beirut, Lebanon, which The US assassination of Iran’s Gen- Al-Muhandis was killed alongside almost wholly vanished from the fortified Green Zone. opening of the border with Syria, bounced back partly because of its location eral Soleimani, in a drone attack Soleimani, along with several other streets. Instead, small groups of and his flouting of US sanctions by on the water outside Baghdad airport in early officials. There are many other pre-prepared, armed and violent In response to Soleimani’s death, the buying electricity from Iran. January, has made major war in the possible targets for Iran to select activists – not protestors – attacked powerful Shia leader Moqtada Al- infiltrated by right-wing forces, Middle East more likely. Soleimani outside Iraq, including Israel, whose the strategic hubs of state infra- Sadr re-mobilised his Mahdi army, But above all, it is the level of Ira- blocking arteries out of Beirut. was the most important military missile defences may not be able to structure … using rocket-propelled which led attacks against the US nian influence in Iraq, through the The US-influenced Lebanese army leader in Iran, head of the Al Quds deflect swarms of Iranian drones or grenades and sub-machine guns.” occupation from 2003 on, but which Iran-backed PMUs, that has proved refused to dismantle them. Samir force – an elite section of the Ira- Hezbollah missiles, Saudi Arabia, The regime blamed militants from had been partially stood down since intolerable to the US and Israel. Gaegea, leader of the right-wing nian Revolutionary Guards Corps – the UAE, US shipping in the Gulf, and the Saudi-funded People’s Mujahe- 2008. Moqtada, along with the Iraqi Israel has been busy inflaming Christian militia, the Lebanese which co-ordinates anti-imperialist so on. There are also dozens of US din, and royalists who support the government, had been attempting anti-Iranian sentiment – blaming Forces – whose soldiers killed thou- resistance outside Iran, across Iraq, bases which are now on high alert. Shah’s son. It suppressed these a compromise position between the the PMUs for killing protestors, who sands in the 1975-1990 civil war Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Solei- armed “thugs” violently, while US and Iran, but the US belligerence have actually been guarded by the – has demanded a share of govern- mani, who was the key strategist in releasing thousands of the peace- has pushed all parts of the fractious PMUs from violent masked groups. ment power or else the roadblocks it the defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, ful protestors it had arrested. Iraqi establishment closer to Iran. If Arson attacks on the Iranian con- controls will continue. Other fac- was rapidly replaced by Brigadier Acknowledging the hardship caused the remnants of ISIS in Iraq seize the sulate in Najaf have been another tions have similarly been riding on General Esmail Ghaani, his expe- by US sanctions, President Rouhani moment to launch renewed attacks, well-organised provocation. The the protests to vie for power. Hezbol- rienced second in command – but announced a “budget of resistance”, as some commentators have sug- violent crackdown by the security lah, which has been sympathetic to the US will be hoping the killing backed by a $5 billion Russian gested, Iraqi-Iranian ties could be forces against the demonstrators the demonstrators’ anti-corruption destabilises the Iranian regime. One investment, promising to raise pub- further strengthened as they join has only served to inflame the demands, asked its mainly working- senior US official said it was impor- lic sector wages and continue subsi- forces to defeat the terrorists. situation. Now, the game-changing class base not to block roads so tant “to show Iran we own escala- dies on food and medicines. Despite provocation by the US could lead to as not to worsen the already dire tion. If they kill one of our men we genuine dissatisfaction with the The assassination of Soleimani increased attacks against US bases economic situation. It rejected can kill 30 of theirs. If they attack regime, Iran’s defiant foreign policy came during protests that have been in Iraq, eventually forcing it out of any move to topple the president, our embassy we can take out their remains popular – and the recent US taking place in Iraq since October the country altogether. saying this would leave a danger- military commanders”. escalation has only enhanced that. – against soaring unemployment, ous vacuum – having learnt from corruption and lack of basic serv- Lebanon the example of Syria, where the US The naval drills that took place in The pro-Pentagon Defense One ices such as healthcare, water, and fanned similar protests into civil the Indian Ocean and the Gulf in website provides a useful overview electricity, which never recovered In Lebanon, wage cuts and high war. It refutes any suggestions that December, involving for the first of Iran’s position: “Slowly but sure- from the destruction of the US inva- unemployment resulted in massive its supporters have attacked protest time Iran, China and Russia, may ly, Iran has transformed its “axis of sion. The protests, which forced the demonstrations against the corrupt camps and roadblocks. Meanwhile, also have provoked the hawks in Major General Qassem Soleimani at the resistance” with Hezbollah and the now caretaker prime minister Mahdi political establishment, forcing prime left parties, including the Commu- Washington to act, urged on by International Day of Mosque Syrian regime into a regional alli- to tender his resignation, cut across minister Hariri to resign. The sectar- nists, are supporting the protests, as Netanyahu who has been eager for ance spanning from Iraq to Yemen. sectarian lines, and have been met ian political system, which has kept they are in Iraq. war against Iran to save his political Iran No longer simply Iranian proxies, with violent repression. The death Lebanese society divided and ruled career. But plans for Soleimani’s groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis, toll is in the hundreds. While the since the French colonial era, has Hezbollah’s massive popularity – assassination existed already – so Iran had already been facing serious and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units protests expressed genuine grievanc- fostered huge levels of inequality. with 90% support from the Shia pop- that the precise timing may have attempts at destabilisation, on the now form a group of ideologically es, the speed with which they esca- ulation, according to a recent poll, depended on the US making use back of peaceful protests that began aligned, militarily interdependent, lated suggests outside interference. The demonstrations, initially sup- due to its effective welfare provision of a “target of opportunity”, as one in mid-November against a severely political-military actors committed As in Ukraine’s colour revolution, ported by the working class, changed and its history of resistance to Israel US official put it. Iran’s Ayatollah weakened economy caused by US to one another’s mutual defense – both demonstrators and security character rapidly when right-wing – has made it a key western target. Khameini made a public announce- sanctions, and against ongoing a resistance to NATO, essentially, forces have been killed by uni- pro-US parties joined them. These Evidence of western plotting came ment warning of a harsh response. establishment misrule and corrup- with military footholds across the dentified snipers. The Al Akhbar parties sought to use the protests in in a leaked document in March 2019, This could well be carried out by tion. The trigger for the protests region, political influence in key newspaper reported in early Octo- order to challenge Hezbollah, which revealing a secret US-Israeli plan to Iran’s militia allies in Iraq, the was a fuel tax price rise of 200%. Arab capitals, and a network of ded- ber that the Iraqi government had is an influential part of the govern- spend $200 million on fanning the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs) The day after the non-violent pro- icated partners.” It is this regional been aware of a planned US-backed ment. Working class support ebbed flames of sectarian conflicts against which were formed to defeat ISIS tests, according to former UK diplo- alliance that will respond to the military coup by General al-Saadi – away and the largely middle class Hezbollah. The aim was to provoke in 2017, and whose deputy leader mat Alastair Crooke, the “protestors recent US act of war. commander of the elite army corps protest camps and roadblocks were full-blown civil war, which would

16 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 17 then lead to requests for intervention Defense Secretary said this was to north-east Syria since 2012, when ingness to abandon its Kurdish allies ranean, prompting a furious reaction cessfully bombing the Saudi Aramco by the Israeli military. Israel would prevent ISIS capturing Syria’s oil, but Kurdish SDF forces took over and has rattled the Israeli establishment. to Turkey’s Libya adventure from oil refinery. They also exposed the only agree to do so with a show of Trump tweeted more honestly that made their bid for secession from Equally worrying for Israel has been its regional rivals Israel, Greece and weakness of the huge Saudi military, extreme reluctance. it was about the US taking the oil Syria. Syria also now controls keys the successful Houthi attack on Cyprus. Israel and Turkey are already designed for conventional wars but for itself. The Pentagon warned that cities near the Turkish border, as well Saudi oil installations and the US in dispute over Turkey’s incursion not for defending against small- Another example of western pres- “overwhelming force” would be used as the important hydroelectric dams failure to prevent it. Russia is now into Cypriot waters to drill for energy. scale attacks. The Saudis’ biggest sure is the financial blockade on against any attempt to dislodge the of Tabqah and Tishrin. It has also recognized by all sides as the region- weakness, however, is Crown Prince Lebanon, including blocking the US from the oil-rich region – even retaken some of its oil fields, though al powerbroker and peacemaker, an Yemen & the Gulf Mohamed Bin Salman – whose reck- $8 billion worth of remittances though they have no legal right to be it is not confronting US troops near- outcome the US had worked for less invasion has failed to defeat the from Lebanese living abroad. The in Syria in the first place. The Turkish by. Meanwhile, its army is advanc- decades to prevent. On the other A subsidiary war-within-a-war Houthis and install a puppet regime squeeze has slashed the value of invasion is being led on the ground ing into Idlib in the north-west – the hand, the Americans are preying between proxies belonging to in Yemen. After Aramco, the Saudis the Lebanese lira against the dollar by jihadist militias, who have been province where defeated jihadis were on weaknesses elsewhere to cause Yemen’s two main invaders, Saudi have been forced to begin negotia- and created widespread poverty. In beheading and mutilating Kurdish shipped from all the Syrian hotspots maximum damage to Iran and the Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tions with the Houthis, releasing 200 effect the West is holding Lebanon’s fighters, including women. These are during the war to be dealt with later ‘axis of resistance’. (UAE), has made the dire situation Houthi prisoners and approaching economy hostage, demanding that the same ‘moderate’ rebels Obama on. As for the Kurds, their dream of there even worse. The two coun- neutral Oman to act as go-between. the Christian president break his and Hillary Clinton armed and an independent Rojava has gone. Meanwhile, in a further sign of tries, supported by a western-backed They will try to divide the Houthis alliance with Hezbollah. As Mike trained in 2012 as part of the CIA’s Their opportunistic American allies its expansionist aims, Turkey has coalition, invaded the country in from Iran – an unlikely prospect giv- Pompeo tweeted in mid-December, Timber Sycamore programme. have deserted them. The SDF may announced that it is sending troops 2015,using Blackwater mercenaries en Iran’s importance in underpinning the US “will continue to use all the eventually become integrated into to Libya to support the Tripoli-based and 14,000 impoverished Sudanese Houthi power through its deliveries tools at our disposal to counter the The US is, meanwhile, hanging on to the Syrian army. Government of National Accord fighters as ground troops against the of arms parts and drones. threat Hezbollah poses”. Hezbol- its well-established base in southern (GNA). It has already sent jihadi Houthis, whom they perceived as lah has not been provoked into a Syria on the Iraqi border at Al Tanf, Despite the view of some commen- In the face of any moves towards violent defence of order against the blocking the major highway between tators that Russia made too many peace, Israel will try to escalate demonstrations, which would have Baghdad and Damascus. Its concessions to Turkey, the deal has the war in Yemen. Having already provided a pretext for the planned continuing control over Syrian oil advanced the cause of peace. True, mounted secret missions against the Israeli ‘rescue’. It has promised never and water supplies gives it the ability 200,000 civilians fled the Turkish Houthis, it plans airstrikes on the to turn its guns on the Lebanese and to economically blackmail President invasion, and there has been major pretext of defending itself against ordered all its supporters not to rise Assad, having failed to remove him damage to water supplies and elec- ‘Iranian’ attack. Its recent attempts to any provocation. Instead, it is call- by military means. The forced Kurd- tricity. It’s also true that Turkey at wooing the Saudis and other ing for a government that cuts across ish withdrawal from a zone within has done well out of the deal, Gulf states represent a necessary the sectarian divide and includes all north-eastern Syria, demarcated in pushing its Kurdish enemy away regrouping of these pro-imperialist different Lebanese factions, includ- the Turkish-Russian Sochi agree- from its border. And although the regimes in the face of setbacks in ing the main Christian party. ment, has so far satisfied Turkey, and deal stipulates that Turkey must Aramco petro chemicals, Jubail, Saudi Arabia Syria. Closer relations will also help the fighting between Turkish and respect Syria’s territorial integrity, it Israel prevent peace from breaking In the longer term, US sanctions and Kurdish forces has not amounted to remains to be seen whether they will militants from Idlib in Syria, along being too close to Iran. But recently out in Yemen. interference are likely to push Leba- full-scale combat. Russia’s aim in honour this. From Turkey’s point with armoured vehicles. The GNA, the UAE decided to pull its troops non towards Russia and China, both its deal with Turkey was to limit the of view, its neo-Ottoman ambitions which is recognised by the UN, is out, worried by Saudi recklessness Prospect of major war of which are investing heavily in the extent of the Turkish invasion – pen- have been advanced. Nevertheless, fighting forces under General Haftar, in provoking Iran – the UAE’s biggest region. A recent poll suggests low ning it into an area 30kms deep in taking all that into account, the who was once close to Gaddafi, but trading partner – and by threats of As a result of the killing of Solemani, public support for the US, while the centre of the 275 mile border. To deal has not only allowed Syria to later went into exile in the US. Haftar Houthi attacks on its oil installa- all the separate but linked conflicts Putin outscores Trump in approval underline Rusia’s stabilising pres- reclaim more of its territory from has been trying for eight months to tions. It is, however, leaving in place outlined above could well be drawn ratings across all communities. ence, Russian military police are US-Kurdish control, but driven a big- capture Tripoli from the GNA. This is a proxy force of southern seces- into a single conflagration. In such a patrolling the Turkish-Syrian border ger wedge between Turkey and the the latest battle in the ongoing civil sionists – the Southern Transitional major war, the US will have to be Syria and Turkey jointly with Turkish troops. US. Even if it had wanted to, Russia war in Libya, which began after the Council (STC) – to fulfil its own seen to be able to protect its regional couldn’t have prevented Turkey’s disastrous western regime change agenda: control of the port of Aden allies; the Saudis, the Gulf states and Turkey’s unilateral decision to invade Overall, Damascus now governs invasion by force without risking intervention of 2011, leaving no and domination of the Bab-el-Man- Israel. If it fails to do so, the long- the Kurdish-controlled enclave in half of Syrian territory, where over Turkey running back to its American single force in overall control. Haftar deb seaway, a chokepoint for world term effects may well be to dimin- north-eastern Syria (Rojava) pushed 70% of the population lives. Parts NATO partner for protection. controls the majority of the coun- shipping. The STC’s war against Sau- ish US influence across the region. out the 1,000 US troops stationed of the Syria-Iraq border have been try and receives military aid from di- backed Yemeni forces loyal to the Furthermore, with the US embroiled there. The US evacuation to Iraq re-opened. ISIS no longer rules any Overall, Russian regional influence France, whose Total oil company is exiled president Hadi has recently in the Middle East, the Americans’ was chaotic, and left their Kurdish cities, and has lost the support of is greater than before; bad news for based in Haftar’s territory, as well as halted, after the STC was offered a strategic aim of pivoting to Asia to allies, the Syrian Defence Force (SDF), Turkey and the Gulf states. Over a Israel, whose ability to bomb Syria major support from the UAE. Mean- future share of power in Yemen. But counter the rise of China will be put feeling betrayed, facing the Turkish million Syrians have returned to their at will is now limited by Russia’s while Qatar backs the GNA, as does the causes of the conflict remain. on hold, allowing China more space invaders alone. At the same time, country and the rate is accelerating. presence. Israel’s hope of a perma- Italy whose oil giant, ENI, is based in and time in which to develop. We different US troops entered Syria Syria controls its border with Turkey nent pro-imperialist Kurdish statelet its territory. Turkey’s expansionist Meanwhile the Houthis – their com- are witnessing potentially epochal from bases in Iraq, and occupied to the east of the Turkish ‘safe zone’ in Syria has been dashed, and not plans follow an economic agreement mon enemy – showed up the limits shifts in power. In the meantime, the Syrian oilfields near Deir Ezzor – preventing eastward encroach- only has it lost the airspace it had in with the GNA on energy exploration of US air defence systems against there is the very real prospect of mil- in the east of the country. The US ment. Its troops hadn’t set foot in north-east Syria, but American will- in Libya and underneath the Mediter- relatively low-tech weapons by suc- lions of people suffering and dying.

18 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 19 France Working class fights on the streets by Jean Auld

Huge strikes by French transport out the summer and autumn of 2019 the plans “attack the principle of and other workers have paralysed – by firefighters, hospital workers, solidarity that is the basis of French the country for several weeks. The teachers and others. social protection,” and “individual- unions are demanding an end to ise” pension pots. Another Left MP Macron’s plans to reform the pen- Macron’s new points-based retire- said that “under the alibi of univer- sions system. The strikes brought ment scheme would abolish the 42 sality, the government is picking photo public transport to a halt throughout individual pension schemes operat- everyone’s pockets.”

December, and at different times ing in different sectors and replace b closed schools, chemical works and them with a universal system, Coupled with France’s earlier aus- N y

oil depots. The first wave of mass based on points accumulated over terity measures, such as the Code orbu marches in dozens of French cities a working life – though exactly how Pénicaud, which targeted national drew 1.5 million protestors, the points are earned is unclear. Cur- pay bargaining and undermined Gy

second 850,000 and the third 1.8 rently, pension calculations in the union representation, and the achun million, with the pro-establishment private sector would be based on an Thatcherite programme of priva- CFDT union joining for the first time. employee’s 25 best earning years. tisation, the pensions reforms aim Public sector pensions are based on at rolling back the social advances The strikes initially shut down seven earnings made in the last six months made since 1945. It represents a Riot police bear down on gilets jaunes in Paris of France’s eight oil refineries – and before retirement. Macron claims direct challenge to the power of strikes by tanker drivers caused the reform is necessary to pay for an trade unions, who have suffered a ber were joined by strikers, such since the Algerian war. So far, at Condemned as a rightwing mob by petrol shortages at service stations. ageing population, with pension sys- series of defeats in recent years. as the RATP Paris public transport least two people have been acciden- liberal commentators and initially About a quarter of Électricité de tem deficits forecast at 17€ billion by workers, all condemning the pen- tally killed, and 25 protestors have by the unions, gilets jaunes protests France workers have also been on 2025. But there is widespread public A danger for Macron is that the sions reforms. lost an eye, and 5 a hand. 4,000 have have at times taken on a reactionary strike, leading to rolling power cuts recognition that he has started a pensions protests have begun to been injured, 315 with serious head appearance and some leading indi- in different regions. Train drivers in race to the bottom on pensions. In link with other struggles, drawing Gilets jaunes injuries including broken skulls and viduals among them have expressed the most militant CGT union centre one opinion poll (Dec 11-12), 70% of increasing numbers of people into jaws. Flashballs, banned elsewhere xenophobic views. According to said they would continue striking respondents saw the reforms as an the struggle. One example is health- The gilets jaunes protests began in in Europe, and considered weap- a poll conducted during the last until Macron’s pension reforms attack on pension rights, and there workers who have struck against November 2018, and have contin- ons of war, have been widely used. election, 60% of those finding it were scrapped. Railworkers in other is solid public support for the strikes underfunding and unacceptable ued ever since – though Macron’s Amnesty, the UN and the European “very difficult” to cope financially unions also took a tough line. – this despite the fact that only 8% workloads, joining the pensions PR stunt of a ‘great debate’, a sham parliament have all condemned the voted for Le Pen over Macron. That of French workers are unionised. protests in the streets. Equally dif- engagement with the people in excessive use of force. means that many of the gilets jaunes The CFDT union centre, however, ficult for Macron are the signs of early 2019, had the effect of damp- would have been Le Pen voters. But supports the new points-based The reforms would force people to ‘convergence’ between gilets jaunes ening them down. Aside from the Despite such repression, the protests the gilets jaunes are by and large system and is only striking over retire later or face reduced pensions and unions. Such unity has until weekly demonstrations known as have continued week after week. Ini- not ideological right wingers. Their one central aspect, the raising of when they retire. Though over the recently been hindered by the gilets Actes, gilets jaunes have occupied tially sparked by fuel price rises and demands are progressive: for higher the retirement age to 64. Despite past ten years the official retirement jaunes’ suspicion of organised labour, roundabouts and shut down motor- the provocative lowering of wealth wages, pensions, and benefits. There these differences, there has been a age has risen from 60 to 62, France and the unions’ initial suspicion way toll booths, where close-knit taxes, they developed into a wider are also demands to tax big busi- new level of co-operation and unity still has one of the lowest retirement of gilets jaunes as chaotic and right groups have formed. They have expression of revolt. Over a year ness, rebuild hospitals and other between the traditionally rivalrous ages of the rich OECD countries. The wing. But here too there have been become an important symbol of into the movement, 69% of French public services, and renationalise union centres – and unity between plan would make employees work growing indications of unity. A one- resistance – against the establish- people still believe it to be “justi- utilities and SNCF. Demonstrators trade unionist gilets rouges and gilets till 64 to draw their full pension. day protest in February 2019 saw ment, against austerity, and against fied”. Yet the media in Britain has may sing the Marseillaise and wave jaunes, who have marched together Currently, France has one of the them marching side-by-side, and in the French constitution. As a result blatantly ignored the movement and the Tricoleur, but these symbols in towns and cities across France. lowest rates of pensioner poverty in November the CGT welcomed gilets they have met with harsh state the violence against it, while high- have been reclaimed for their origi- The militant mood follows more the EU but that would change drasti- jaunes’ calls to support the pensions violence. Police have used anti-ter- lighting the demonstrations in Hong nal revolutionary significance. The than a year of gilets jaunes demon- cally under the new scheme. Com- strikes. The regular gilets jaunes Sat- rorist emergency powers to inflict Kong and Venezuela, which it suits early demonstrations attacked the strations, along with strikes through- munist leader Fabien Roussel said urday marches throughout Decem- a level of visible brutality not seen the British establishment to support. Stock Exchange, large department

20 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 21 stores and even the Elysée Palace. The movement’s most visible call developed a clear view of the state as Though the gilets jaunes are support- has been for direct referenda. The a vehicle of class rule – despite the ed by the Front National, they are RIC (référendum d’initiative citoyenne police violence. also backed by the Communists and or citizens’ initiative referendum) Latin America Mélenchon’s leftist France Insoumise. is a plan to allow a referendum on The gilets jaunes did win some vic- any proposal that gains 700,000 tories in the early stages: the fuel This is a movement of the poor signatures or more. The problem price rise was halted, and Macron a continent fights neo-liberalism and dispossessed who found a with this idea is that referenda can announced a 10€ billion package of spontaneous expression of class simply be ignored, as we in Britain wage increases and tax cuts for low December 2019 discontent in the gilets jaunes, just know. The RIC demand reflects earners and pensioners. Companies by Dan Morgan, Chile as the vote for Brexit expressed widespread distrust of politicians were also encouraged to give out working class anger in Britain. It and the current system of represen- Christmas bonuses, which would be Where do I begin? So many countries There’s no knowing, but it will and to the CONAIE – the first session arose after a period of successive tation, and is an attempt to bypass tax free up to 1000€. But these givea- in turmoil. The commodity boom must happen. Until then, the protest on 13th October was televised at union defeats, including the key parliamentary democracy. This ways did not address the fundamen- fuelled by China’s former spectacu- movements will continue and will their insistence. Moreno agreed to defeat of the railworkers against rejection of state structures has led tal grievances. lar growth rate ended and economic develop politically, as people learn in suspend Decree 883 and thus cancel the privatisation of SNCF, and when to some positive experiments in problems gave the opportunity for their struggles. the IMF package. The bad news the once powerful Communist Party grassroots democracy, such as the Activists converge the right wing to smother the ‘pink was the arrests of several leaders of had been weakened by decades of various assemblies, local organising wave’ in much of the continent. But Ecuador - reaction pushed the ‘Citizen Revolution Movement’, ideological retreat. groups and, so far, four assemblées Now there is potential for ‘conver- capitalism does not solve people’s back supporters of ex-president Correa, gence’ to make headway. Work has problems and so we now have a wave leading to others seeking asylum in The gilets jaunes mostly come from already been done in a number of of social explosions. The best plac- Rafael Correa, President 2007-2017, the Mexican Embassy. small towns and villages rather The gilets jaunes cities. The Communists in Marseille, ard I saw in Chile was one held by a improved life for the people and than cities, places cut off by lack for example, successfully brought middle-aged woman that read, “Hay fought for compensation from Chev- Chile in revolt of public transport – hence the mostly come from activists together at an early stage in tantas wea, que no sé qué poner” ron, the oil company giant, which furious reaction against the petrol small towns and the gilets jaunes movement. Nation- which freely translates as, “There’s caused an ecological disaster in the Social Media, especially Facebook, price rises of 2018. This geographi- ally, the wave of strikes has begun to so much crap, I don’t know what country. Business sectors hated him buzzed with the news from Ecuador. cal isolation is coupled with chronic villages rather than create a gravitational pull, drawing to put”. In short, there are massive for making them pay social security People’s protests led to the cancella- employment and lack of access to the gilets jaunes towards the labour protests against neoliberal policies of contributions and minimum wages tion of a neoliberal social package! If care. 9 million people in France cities, places cut movement. On a wider political austerity in Ecuador, Chile, Argen- etc. But Ecuador had its longest they can do it, why not us? live below the poverty line; 30% off by lack of public level, the demands of both strikers tina, Colombia, Honduras and Haiti. period of political stability under of French people feel they live in and gilets jaunes are incompatible The coup against a progressive gov- his presidency. His successor is the neglected areas. But such poverty is transport – hence with continued membership of the ernment in Bolivia was also followed treacherous Lenin Moreno, elected not confined to rural areas. Urban EU, whose rules lead to the driving by huge protests and the story does as candidate of the same political protestors join the weekly pro- the furious reaction down of wages and welfare cut- not end there. Mexico and Argentina alliance but bent on reversing these tests that coalesce in the big cities, against the petrol backs, including pensions. The need have seen electoral successes against gains (as well as cosying up to US and in summer 2019 the move- is to link the current struggles with the right and Venezuela and Cuba imperialism in other ways). Aus- ment spread to undocumented price rises of 2018. demands for a new constitution – a continue to resist US sanctions. terity policies followed, and on 1 migrants in the Paris area. These 6th Republic – and for popular sover- October he introduced an economic gilets noirs – a movement of about eignty outside the EU. The imposition of neo-liberalism in package called Decree 883 which 1500 migrants – made headlines des assemblées, most famously in the Latin America, often through dicta- was agreed with the International with several high-profile occupa- small town of Commercy, attended In a possible sign of government torships, is well known, however, the Monetary Fund (IMF). tions protests in Paris, most notably by delegates from gilets jaunes groups weakening, Macron’s Pensions Min- return of democracy did not mean a of the Panthéon, and Charles de around the country. More important, ister Delevoye was forced to resign reversal of these policies with contin- The people of Ecuador rose in Gaulle airport. But despite some the regular informal local protests, in mid-December for his failure to ued privatisations and, for example, revolt. Protests were started by the local gilets jaunes’ expressions of as well as the larger demonstrations declare outside interests – one of worsening social segregation in edu- trade union confederation FUT, the Chile - The people rise up. Goodbye Pinera solidarity with migrant victims of in cities, have drawn thousands of which was administering an insur- cation. Now Chile and several other indigenous peoples’ confederation police violence, there has been little people into active political struggle. ance training institute, a sector that countries are convulsed by protests CONAIE, the Popular Front and stu- ongoing joint action between them could benefit from the planned pen- and the great need is for political dents. A transport strike paralysed The Metro fare had just gone up by and gilets noirs. But the movement’s refusal to join sion reform. Macron has offered the development, for people to see the the country from 3 October, and 4% (4 pence). No big deal, but just with established working class organ- possibility of concessions on the age possibility of socialism, a real alter- then the CONAIE came into action, another cut in workers’ standard of The movement, based outside isations such as the trade unions has of retirement in an attempt to divide native system. The political will is not marching on Quito, the capital, and living. From October 6th, secondary workplaces, has not hit the economy been a weakness. It has kept the gilets the CFDT from the other unions. But yet there and socialism is demonised. defying the police. The armed forces school students started jumping over directly – apart from blockades of jaunes isolated and has prevented at the time of writing (end of 2019), Cuba and Venezuela are struggling were deployed on the 7th Octo- turnstiles to avoid paying their fares. fuel depots, impeding the circula- a potential alliance that would the unions are united and not giving economically against increasing US ber and the government moved to The ‘evade’ movement snowballed tion of heavy lorries, and disrupting help them achieve their demands. way. This has been the longest run- sanctions and Venezuela is in such Guayaquil for a short time. and by Friday 18th October the whole tourism and the retail trade during Separation from the organised Left ning strike action since the rail- difficulties that it is successfully Metro network was closed at 3pm – demonstrations. also means the movement has not workers’ strikes in 1986-7. used as a negative example. How With the whole country in revolt, police repression could not stop the long will it take to overcome this? the government was forced to talk protests. That night there was the

22 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 23 first of many ‘cacerolazos’, pot and dentious reporting on Venezuela and One political problem is widespread of Defence and he resigned the fol- service was only started this year. sion in the past. We must hope they pan protests, and 23 Metro stations Nicaragua, etc. objections to all political parties. In lowing day. can again. were set on fire. We still don’t know 2015 illegal financing by big business Lots of US dollars, over 1.3 million who did this. There are organised Politically the explosion, long feared of the parties in Congress was clear- A block of organisations set up a last year alone from the National Argentina – neoliberal anarchist groups who certainly have by the ruling class, took them by ly exposed and the huge, self-award- movement for a National Strike Endowment for Democracy, funded failure, left success done similar things, but it seems surprise. All TV channels were filled ed salaries of deputies and senators against outrages such as corrup- the right wing opposition. The rabid unlikely they could have coordinat- with film of the demonstrations and have been widely denounced. Even tion, inequality and all neoliberal racist right wing, along with some Mauricio Macri was very narrowly ed such widespread attacks and at discussion of people’s real problems the Communist Party, not involved policies and this started on 21st leaders exploiting supposed regional elected President of Argentina in such an early stage of the protests. for two weeks. Now they scarcely in this corruption, was ‘tainted’ by November. The strike and associated grievances, plotted to get rid of Evo 2015, defeating a less than char- There are images of police entering mention marches and concentrate its inclusion in Michelle Bachelet’s demonstrations and “cacerolazos” whatever the election result was. ismatic candidate from the party Metro stations with cans of liquid on damage done by looters etc. The second government. It tried to end have been enormous in all major A plausible, soft opposition candi- of the previous president, Cristina but the truth is not clear. In any government’s plan for a tax reform the worse abuses of the system but cities. On the third day a young man date, Carlos Mesa, was put up. Evo Fernandez. Cristina’s government case, if there were a conspiracy to to reverse the Bachelet govern- was stymied by its own right wing was killed by police shotgun fire in got 47% of the vote against 36% for was popular but opposition to it commit arson in order to discredit ment’s limited progressive measures of Christian Democrats and also Bogotá which increased resistance. Mesa, just over a 10% difference grew amid rising inflation and accu- the protests and end them, it did not was scrapped. Small improvements by the Constitution Tribunal. The The National Strike Committee and therefore an outright victory sations of corruption. She is proba- work at all. There were huge marches to the miserable minimum pension Broad Front deputies are new but which includes the main trade union for Evo in the first round of voting. bly not corrupt (although personally on Saturday 19th October and a have been agreed, as was a state some opportunist mistakes, along centre has a list of 13 demands. But a mistake was made in inviting quite rich) but several of her minis- social explosion followed, reaching subsidy on low wages to raise mini- with anti-politics prejudices, make observers from the Organisation ters almost certainly were. Corrup- its visible high point two weeks later mum income to £375 net from £375 its work hard. So forming a good As of 5th December the strikes and of American States which ena- tion is not unusual in Argentina and when a million and a half demon- gross a month. (The exchange rate political alternative will be difficult. protests continue. bled them to release a preliminary they all came from the traditional strated in Santiago and hundreds of varies and purchasing power is very Anarchistic attitudes go deep among report citing some vague irregulari- Peronist Party. thousands more across the country, different but an average estimate wide sections of young people espe- Bolivia – coup d’etat ties. Bands of brutal thugs began even in small towns. In Villarrica of 800 Chilean pesos per pound has cially and the pro-dictatorship right blocking roads and then attacking So a right wing businessman came the population of the commune is been used). Other social benefits wing is still important. leaders of MAS, the government in, promising neoliberal policies 50,000 with about 30,000 in the town that do not affect the basic neolib- party (which won over two thirds of that would create economic stability and there were close to 3,000 on the eral model will be given. The biggest As of 5th December marches and deputies and senators in 2014, the and growth, bring investment and march – and two weeks later it was gain, though, is the promise of a one or two-day strikes continue previous elections and a majority employment. The result was almost even bigger, more than 4,000 strong. referendum in April on having a new along with growing local assemblies this time). The police did nothing incredibly the opposite. Lifting of The lid was off the pressure cooker of constitution to completely replace to discuss social issues and the pos- against the increasing wave of right exchange controls led to a massive decades of resentment at low wages, the Pinochet one of 1980 which sible constituent assembly. wing protests and finally announced exodus of money. Devaluation first poor public health and education, sets the neoliberal model in stone. a mutiny in several cities. The army led to an exchange rate of 18 pesos miserable pensions and ever more There will now be a fight about how Colombia – strikes and Commander-in-Chief then ‘invited’ per US Dollar from a previous rate visible corruption. to elect the members of a possible protests Evo to resign, amid brutal intimida- of 10 or 14, and now stands at an constituent assembly. tion of ministers and other leaders. amazing 58 pesos per dollar! Taxes The marches, demonstrations and The latest wave of protests in Evo and Alvaro opted to leave for on exports of wheat, maize and “cacerolazos” met fierce repression. Last year political action centred Colombia is a new phenomenon. Evo Morales Mexico, and some MAS minsters mining products were dropped and For the first time the police fired on feminist issues and women have Remember Colombia had difficult and others sought political asylum those on soya, the main export, cut shotguns, rubber bullets and tear been to the fore in this movement, negotiations to end the long guer- Evo Morales, first indigenous presi- in embassies. A senator, Jeanine from 35% to 30% so the fiscal deficit gas grenades at face level, causing recently creating the choreographed rilla struggle of the Marxist inspired dent of Bolivia, wanted a fourth term Añez, was self-ordained as interim only increased. thousands of injuries including 354 dance against rape that has gone FARC under previous President in office and went for re-election on President and hard line ministers eye injuries. At least 30 people lost world-wide. It includes specifi- Santos. His more hardline succes- 20th October. This was the opportu- appointed to dismantle MAS’s state In a financial mess, Macri went cap the sight of one eye and a student cally Chilean references to rape and sor since 2018, Ivan Duque, has nity right wing pro-imperialist forces bodies. Many leaders are being in hand to the IMF and got a big 50 taking photographs at a demonstra- harassment by the police, as well as undermined that agreement, lead- had hoped for. The constitution charged with everything from sedi- billion dollar loan, later increased to tion is now totally blind. At least other state institutions. ing to some FARC leaders resum- limits re-election to two terms and tion to terrorism to embezzlement 57 billion. He was forced to reintro- 4 people died directly from army ing armed struggle. Others have Evo had very narrowly lost a referen- and other forms of corruption. duce the export taxes to try and bal- and police fire, hundreds have been The protests were really spontane- been assassinated, along with an dum held to change this. Then a legal ance the budget. Inflation was 48% tortured, including sexual torture, ous and for some time no real lead- increased number of social activists judgement allowed him to stand but New elections, with a new Electoral in 2018 and estimated to be 52% this in police stations. Complaints by the ership was evident. Anarchist groups including indigenous leaders – at this manuoevre provoked a lot of Tribunal, are promised for March or year. Cristina’s government ended official National Institute for Human have indulged in burning buildings least 500 killed since 2016 when resentment, along with the loss of April. The new authorities will try with a national debt of 52% of GDP, Rights and Child Defence and civil and infrastructure, possibly leading the peace agreement was signed. some left wing and environmentalist everything to rig these, using wide- it is now at 95%. Nineteen thousand society had no effect, nor did the looting but much of this has also These massacres by paramilitary supporters. Evo and his more ideo- spread intimidation and acting with companies have closed and unem- Amnesty International report. Only been spontaneous revolt and crimi- and other criminal gangs have not logical vice-president Alvaro Garcia dubious legality. The election, how- ployment is around 14%, the highest the Human Rights Watch (HRW) nals taking advantage of the chaos. been stopped by the armed forces. In Linera had pursued a policy of devel- ever, showed how strong Evo’s base since 2004. Generous subsidies on report led to a promise to reform the Now a ‘Social Unity’ group has been August the army bombarded a sup- oping nationalised industries along is among the poor and indigenous. natural gas, electricity and public police and demand an answer from formed from over 200 trade union posed camp of FARC dissidents kill- with ‘normal’ capitalist development, They have strong local and peasant transport were gradually slashed, the Police Director. HRW is of course and social organisations which has ing up to 18 children. On 5th Novem- promoting indigenous peoples and organisations (male and female) and leading to prices increasing by 2 to the imperialists’ favoured ‘human made proposals for election of the ber a vote of censure was presented social services. However after 13 their resistance will be strong. They 3 times, hitting the poor hardest. rights’ organisation for its very ten- constituent assembly for example. in the Congress against the Minister years in power, a universal health have prevailed against hard repres- Poverty has increased enormously

24 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 25 and will stand at about 40% of the in January. He appeals particularly develop. Joao Pedro Stedile is one tion, the mass media was full of policy that in the event of war the population at year’s end, with 7% to the strong racist currents in Bra- of the leaders of the MST and writes Trump’s disgruntlement at NATO non-proliferation treaty would be indigent (miserably poor). zilian society. By self-identification, good analyses of the situation from members’ failure to meet the disregarded. 48% are white, 44% brown and 7% a Marxist standpoint, starting with No to target of military spending of at So in the elections of 27th October, black. The darker the skin, gener- the world outlook. An English trans- least 2 per cent of gross domestic The statement highlights new, the Fernandez double – Alberto for ally the more excluded and poor lation of his latest long article can be product (GDP). additional priorities: ‘NATO President and Cristina for Vice- you are – slavery was abolished found at: http://www.mstbrazil.org/ war and Allies, within their respec- President - got 48% and Macri 32%. only in 1888. Racial divisions, as in content/contemporary-challenges- Thieves do fall out, but predic- tive authority, are committed Alberto Fernandez promises to be a the USA, explain a lot of the rela- working-class-peasantry-brazil tions of a major rift turned out to ensuring the security of our moderate, centre-left president and tive weakness of the working class to be fake news when the final communications, including 5G.’ faces tough economic problems left movement. The Workers’ Party (PT) no to statement, agreed by all mem- Worryingly it continues: ‘We Uruguay – right wing win him by Macri. His first visit abroad governments of Lula de Silva and bers, was delivered. According to have declared space an addition- was to President Andres Manuel Dilma Rousseff had introduced ele- The Broad Front, a left and centre- the statement: ‘NATO guaran- al domain for NATO’ and ‘We are Lopez Obrador in Mexico, and is very ments of positive discrimination for left alliance, has governed Uruguay NATO! tees the security of our territory increasing our tools to respond much in tune with him. They both university education for example, since 1999 and won handsomely in and our one billion citizens’. It to cyber attacks.’ A new enemy condemned the coup in Bolivia for and these were hated by racists. 2014. This time it lost its majority reaffirms, ‘our solemn commit- is added. ‘We recognise that example. The corrupt political system was of deputies and senators, and in the by Pat Turnbull ment as enshrined in Article 5 of China’s growing influence and not challenged by Lula or Dilma run-off ballot the right wing presi- the Washington Treaty that an international policies present Mexico – AMLO one and this was their greatest mistake, dential candidate won by 51% to On 3rd and 4th December 2019, attack against one Ally shall be both opportunities and chal- year on leading directly to the parliamen- 49%. The commodity boom is over NATO held its 70th anniversary considered an attack against us lenges that we need to address tary coup against Dilma in 2016. and all South American countries summit in London, celebrat- all.’ It continues: ‘Through our together as an alliance.’ Last year Andres Manuel Lopez Lula’s imprisonment on trumped- have had falling economic growth ing its foundation on 4th April Defence Investment Pledge, we Obrador, thankfully shortened to up charges followed – he has now rates (although Bolivia maintained 1949 in Washington DC, USA. are increasing our defence invest- Given these additional aggressive AMLO, with his new National Regen- been released after a year but still the highest rate under Evo, at 4%). The summit was able to wel- ment in line with its 2 per cent priorities by NATO, it is disap- eration Front (MORENA), won a faces legal action. Uruguay perhaps suffered more come as a participant its future guidelines’ adding that ‘non-US pointing that the 2019 Labour stunning victory against the neolib- than most and the Broad Front had 30th member, North Macedonia, defence expenditure has grown Party manifesto was weak in eral and corrupt parties in Mexico. Brazil, with a population of over a very tepid approach to economic strengthening NATO’s strangle- for five consecutive years; over this respect. Under Defence and The alliance led by the MORENA, two hundred million and the huge change. Although polarisation was hold on the Balkans. 130 billion US dollars more is Security the manifesto says: ‘We formed only in 2012, won a majority Amazon forest, is the giant of South avoided, no radical changes were being invested in defence.’ will maintain our commitment of deputies and senators. AMLO got America and so to have a reaction- made. If new President Lacalle Before the summit, there was a to NATO and our close relation- 53% of the votes, the next highest ary and repressive government brings in austerity, we shall see how lot of talk about divisions. In an Who is the enemy? ship with our European part- had 23%. AMLO had been mayor there is a major tragedy. Bolsonaro long it takes for the people, and left article of 3rd December enti- ners.’ It adds, ‘Labour supports of Mexico City: he is a soft-spoken, openly welcomes more rapid wing forces, to react. tled ‘NATO summit: Divisions ‘Russia’s aggressive actions con- the renewal of the Trident nucle- decent man who is no revolutionary destruction of the Amazon forest exposed ahead of meeting’, the stitute a threat to Euro-Atlantic ar deterrent.’ Given that Britain but promised a hard fight against – forest fires increased this year by Haiti – mass protests BBC web site highlighted widely security; terrorism in all its forms in July 2019 reclaimed the title of the corrosive all-embracing corrup- 77% over last year. It was impor- publicised disagreements featur- and manifestations remains a the world’s second biggest arms tion in the country which is linked to tant that Brazil had not adopted Haiti is famous for the first suc- ing French President Macron, persistent threat to us all. State exporter, it is unfortunate that extremely rich drug traffickers. He neoliberal policies of ‘opening’ its cessful slave revolt in 1898. French- Turkish President Erdogan, and and non-state actors challenge the manifesto says, ‘Labour’s also promises free, secret elections economy. It has a lot of industry, speaking, it is different from the US President Trump: ‘Last month, the rules-based international commitment to spend at least 2 to trade unions which have usually which had been protected, however, rest of Latin America and often the French president angered order. Instability beyond our bor- percent of GDP on defence will been corrupt class collaboration- Bolsonaro has promised to open ignored. The poorest of countries, it some countries by suggesting ders is also contributing to irregu- guarantee that our armed forces ist organisations. If he can make it to please US imperialism. His suffered decades of brutal dictator- the alliance is “brain dead”’. It lar migration. We face cyber and are versatile and capable of ful- big differences in these two things reward last week – Trump imposed ships but in 1990 with the first dem- continued, ‘Ahead of his depar- hybrid threats.’ The statement filling the full range of roles and then Mexican politics will have the tariffs on imports of Brazilian steel ocratic election there was a glimpse ture from Ankara to London, Mr repeats the lie that ‘Russia’s obligations’ and ‘the UK defence chance of serious change. The other and aluminium. His policies are of hope. The new President Jean- Erdogan said Turkey would not deployment of new intermediate- industry is world-leading, and distinctive feature of AMLO is that counter to those of Alberto Fernan- Bertrand Arisitde promised progres- approve a plan to defend Poland, range missiles ...brought about Labour will continue to work he does not take a submissive atti- dez, so there will be tensions in the sive rule. Not to US imperialism’s Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia the demise of the Intermediate with manufacturers, unions tude to the USA. Feelings of national Mercosur trading bloc. taste, he was overthrown in 1991 by in the event of a Russian attack Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.’ and export partners to ensure dignity are important in Mexico, and a military coup. He was President unless NATO recognises the It continues ‘Allies are strongly it maintains its highly skilled that explains some at least of his The Landless Workers’ Move- again from 1994 to 1996 and again Kurdish YPG militia as terrorists.’ committed to full implementa- workforce.’ There are better popularity. ment MST organises around 400 from 2001 to 2004 when, with US President Trump was quoted as tion of the Treaty on the Non- ways to guarantee skilled jobs thousand families in settlements backing, right wing paramilitaries saying ahead of the meeting that Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons than manufacturing arms. Brazil – Bolsonaro turns and encampments to fight the big removed him again and he went Macron’s statement was “very, in all its aspects’, an assertion back the clock landowners and produce healthy into exile. A number of corrupt neo- very nasty” adding: “You can’t which does not sit well with It is also disappointing that the food. Recently 700 of these families liberal governments followed and just go around making state- the involvement of non-nuclear demonstrations on the occasion Jair Bolsonaro, a pro-fascist, racist, were evicted in Bahia state due to recently the country has also been ments like that about NATO. It’s NATO states in preparations for of the NATO summit in London misogynist was, nevertheless, elect- Bolsonaro’s regime. The prospect is swept by massive protests. very disrespectful.” In addi- nuclear war and with NATO’s were organised under the slogan ed President last year and took office bleak, for now, but resistance will

26 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 27 ‘No to Trump, no to NATO! As greater and with it the danger of war provocation, especially in a result the focus of the march war. We see and feel the build east Germany, where actions and was not on NATO but on Trump, up of arms. The question is how organisation were recently dis- with a range of organisations strong we, the people involved, cussed at a big meeting of peace highlighting issues unconnected the peace movement, are to fight activists in Leipzig. to the summit. This contrasts against this. War is not a natural law, but a question of the bal- Anne Rieger sees no contradic- Winning the with demonstrations in Portu- gal on the dates of the summit ance of forces. Sadly we must tion between the PESCO (Perma- headed ‘Yes to Peace! No to say that this is not on our side nent Structured Cooperation in NATO!’ or the proposed slogans in Germany, NATO and the EU. Defence) EU military project and in Germany next year ‘No to The concerns and the politicians the plans of NATO. Like NATO, Green New Deal War! No to NATO!’ acting for them feel themselves the PESCO members have com- since 1989 so strong, so bru- mitted themselves to spending Danger of war tally armed that they can take more every year on armaments. by Greg Kaser chances on this danger of war.’ She judges that Germany, with On 6th December German paper the help of the EU, will play an Campaigning for the Green New Wolf warned his readers against ent with stabilising temperatures Unsere Zeit (UZ) published in But Anne Rieger continued: ‘If even more central role in NATO, Deal is an opportunity for progres- the Green New Deal as many of its below 2°C”. With 95 percent of world its online edition an interview we can succeed in developing with the German bourgeoisie sives to channel the passion to ‘save supporters “view climate [change] energy production based on burning with Anne Rieger, one of the lasting common demands and excited to have access in the EU the planet’ into targeted campaigns as a justification for the planned fossil fuels and other combustibles, organisers of the 22nd Kassel actions with the young people of to France’s nuclear weapons. At nationally, locally and industrially. economy”. [1] there is a myriad of vested interests Peace Advisory of 7th and 8th the “Fridays for Future” demon- the negotiations to ban nuclear with a stake in the existing business December. The Advisory, with strations, join the problems of weapons in 2017, the official and With more and more evidence that Market failure on global model. As long as it remains legal forty speakers, was entitled ‘No the environment and climate to de facto nuclear powers and the climate change is well and truly emissions and profitable to burn stuff, com- to war - disarmament not arms the anti-war question, we can NATO states with the exception upon us, progressives have ral- panies are not going to change from build-up - ban nuclear weapons’. change the balance of forces a of the Netherlands did not take lied around a solution: the Green what they are already doing. The interview was headed ‘No little bit to our advantage. We part. The German peace move- New Deal. In America, the Green The alarm over global warming Natural Law: without resistance must make it clear that wars and ment wants to press Germany to New Deal is being championed by from greenhouse gases (GHGs) was The second reason for the dearth the danger of war will grow.’ the concerns which prepare wars sign the treaty. socialists inside and outside the raised in 1968 when the American of results lies in the neoliberal and armaments for them are the Democratic Party; in Europe, the Petroleum Institute was told by approach taken by governments. UZ’s questions began: ‘Tanks great climate destroyers.’ Climate Change movement for democratising the EU, scientists that CO2 emissions could The Rio Earth Summit took place at roll eastwards through Germany DiEM25, founded by Yanis Varou- raise the Earth’s temperature over the same time as the USSR and its to the Russian border. At the In 2020 NATO is planning a huge Anne Rieger also drew atten- fakis, is pushing a continental ver- the next thirty years. [2] Ten years economic model were discarded and beginning of October German, US manoeuvre, Defender 2020. More tion to a particular danger, that sion; and in Britain the 2019 Labour later, governments established the supplanted by rapacious capital- and other military units under- than 37,000 troops will practise pressure for climate change can Party Conference adopted a policy Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ism. The remedies enacted to reduce took the NATO military exercise redeploying to Poland and the be used to justify an aggressive advocating it. All versions have one Change (IPCC) and then held an GHG emissions were designed to ‘Steadfast Noon’ rehearsing Baltic. In preparation the Ger- foreign policy. ‘Several politicians thing in common: a just transition to international conference in Rio de be market-friendly. Emissions were nuclear war over Germany. How man peace movement will use have already said that because a net zero carbon emitting society by Janeiro in 1992 that agreed to halt to be limited gradually through the does the peace movement assess the collection of signatures on of rises in temperatures, there is the 2030s. global warming. In practice little price mechanism by establishing the current danger of war?’ the petition ‘Disarmament not a danger that more people will has been achieved with atmospheric markets to trade permits to pollute. arms build up’, which already have to leave their countries and The ambition is feasible but its CO2 rising from 322 parts per million The exchange between buyers and Anne Rieger answered: ‘The has 170,000 signatures, to come to Europe. So that they achievement faces numerous to 407 over the 50 years between sellers of pollution permits would danger of war is growing enor- explain to people what is going don’t overrun us, the outer bor- obstacles, technical, political and 1968 and 2018 according to the set a price for carbon and so con- mously. World wide the profits on and the dangers it holds. They ders of the EU must be defended. economic. Changing to more respon- World Meteorological Organisation. sumers of fossil fuels would face an of the concerns are not reach- want to extend their work with sible lifestyles will play a part, but This lack of results has come about increase in their energy costs and be ing the levels capitalist neces- the trade unions, and mobilise ‘Another argument being raised a modern society relies on energy for two reasons. encouraged to switch to less pol- sity requires. The exploitation for the February security confer- more and more is that in states for almost every activity. Setting luting alternatives. But, as the gilets of nature and human beings is ence in Munich and the regular where conditions are ‘chaotic’ by climate goals is insufficient unless Firstly, companies have continued jaunes protests in France demon- reaching its limits. So with the Easter marches. reason of climate change, western these are developed democratically to operate on the basis of business strated, as did the earlier Europe- competition among themselves, militaries will be needed to restore and supported by a realistic plan. It as usual. Mark Carney, Governor of wide truckers’ and farmers’ protests the clashes over resources, The manoeuvres are happening the states to ‘orderly’ conditions. will involve a shift away from let- the Bank of England, speaking to the of 2000, consumers are very sensi- markets, means of transport around the 8th of May, the 75th Climate protection is being used ting market forces inflict yet more Treasury Select Committee of the tive to energy price changes. Govern- and cheap labour, their room anniversary of the liberation in these cases solely to excuse the damage in the direction of a general House of Commons on 15 October ments calculated that the political for manoeuvre grows less and from fascism, which gives them a further build-up of arms.’ plan for the country. Indeed, this 2019, said that global capital mar- risks were too high to warrant a less. If this can’t be dealt with by particularly baleful significance. is one reason why the Green New kets were “pricing the transition” major hike in energy prices. economic means, the option of On the days of the manoeuvres Deal encounters neoliberal opposi- away from carbon on a pathway a military conflict between the the peace movement will organ- tion, even from those concerned to “probably north of 4 degrees” in Governments instead subsidised states concerned becomes ever ise actions along the route of this about climate change. Financial Times terms of global warming. “Policy” renewable energy to diminish the economics commentator Martin he continued, “is not yet consist- usage of fossil fuels. The major oil

28 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 29 and gas companies had no objection endorse a target date of 2030, which electric vehicles at the same time l Road and rail transport: Electrify to this policy because the intermit- GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SECTOR, 1990-2005 many experts considered unrealistic as cutting electricity consumption. and/or use hydrogen cells (without tency of sunshine and wind meant 40,000 and could leave the party exposed Nevertheless, the report provides producing hydrogen from natural there was always a gap in energy to alarmist criticisms. much useful information that sup- gas but only through electrolysis supply that had to be filled. Gas-fired 35,000 plements the more conservative from water) power plants thus accompanied the In parallel, a report from a group assessment from the Tory-led Com- expansion of renewable energy. 30,000 of energy experts proposed thirty mittee on Climate Change, which l Heating of buildings: Solar PV pan- recommendations by 2030 to put recommends a net zero GHG target els, heat pumps and district heating 25,000 Renewables plus the UK on the fastest path to a low- date of 2050. The ‘30 by 2030’ report using small modular nuclear reac- 20,000 carbon energy system. (3) Their key formed the basis for the Labour tors and/or hydrogen The debate over how to address recommendations were to: Party’s manifesto pledges. [4] The global warming has not been helped 15,000 party’s failure to win the December l Industrial process heat sources: by the emphasis on renewable l Reduce demand for heat by 20% general election must not deter us Mini transportable high temperature

carbon dioxide equivalents) 10,000 energy as the principal solution by Emissions (million metric tons of from advancing this agenda! nuclear batteries and/or hydrogen the environmental movement. Many l Increase the supply of heat from 5,000 supporters of environmental respon- low-carbon sources to 50% plus gas The quicker the transition to a l Steel-making: No substitute yet for sibility are also opposed to nuclear 0 50% low-carbon society is made, the metallurgical coal (coke) although energy and this bias has skewed 1990 1995 2000 2005 YEAR greater is the chance of avoid- hydrogen is a possible candidate their analysis. l Reduce demand for electricity ing catastrophic climate change. Waste Industrial processes Agriculture International transport Energy by 11% But this entails relying on today’s l Shipping: Nuclear or hydrogen- It’s not that we are addicted to fossil Data source: World Resources Institute. 2009. Climate Analysis IndicatorsTool (CAIT). Version 6.0. proven technologies. Delaying the powered vessels Acessed January 2009. http://cait.wri.org. fuels as some say; it’s just that we l Increase supply of low-carbon transition in the hope that less want energy supplied when we want For more information, visit U.S. EPA’s “Climate Change Indicators in the United States” electricity (including 15% from developed technologies, such as l Aviation: Technology not yet avail- at www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators it: to be able to switch on the light nuclear energy) to 92% with 8% using hydrogen or grid-scale battery able so emissions from flights must or start the car as necessary. We gas-fired generation for demand/ storage, will mature over the period be off-set through afforestation are not ready as a society to change supply balancing to offer alternative solutions carries our way of life to one where we use the electricity price would be very idly, the period during which storage a higher risk of failure. A just transition energy only at the times when Moth- low but on windless days the price can be relied upon is relatively short l Trial Carbon Capture & Storage er Nature chooses to supply it. The would be much higher. With smart and insufficient to match lengthier projects Based on existing proven and pos- These steps could be controversial fossil fuel suppliers are actually sell- meters installed, you could set a windless periods or overcast weather. sible technologies, the UK could so it is critical that a democratic and ing us convenience and mobility, not cap on the price you pay. When the Thus the most controversial aspect l Raise the proportion of electric make a massive stride over the next participatory process is adopted to simply energy, which is why they wholesale market price of electric- of the energy transition involves the vehicles on the road to 60% decades to reduce reliance on GHG plan the transition, as the Labour are content with a transition strat- ity goes beyond the cap you have cost of the necessary but comple- emitting fuels: policy requires. The Labour Party, egy focussed on renewables because set, then your power is cut off. If you mentary dispatchable energy supply They estimated that these measures the TUC and the co-operative move- these are not always the dispatch- have installed battery storage in your to cover the periods that intermittent would see GHG emissions fall by l Electricity sector: Massive invest- ment should form a joint commis- able sources that give us energy home, you could ride out the inter- renewable sources are out of action. 77% by 2030. Whether this is feasible ment in additional generating capac- sion to come up with solutions and whenever we want it. So, while it is ruption of supply as long as it is a The attempt, therefore, to accom- is another matter, since it is hard to ity (renewables and nuclear energy) make an input into the local author- great to be able to make use of the brief one. In theory, with continent- plish the energy transition principally reconcile the ambition to switch to and storage ity planning and licensing processes, air, water and sunshine, which are wide inter-connectivity, the absence through intermittent renewable to, for example, fast-track a switch resources that no one owns, there of wind one day in Britain could be sources and the market mechanisms to electric vehicles. is a disconnect between consumers offset by power from hydroelectric will inevitably involve hiking up the World low carbon energy supply by source 2016 (percentage) who want around-the-clock power plants in Norway, wind power from cost of energy and/or cutting off The climate action network Extinc- and the intermittency or seasonal- the Black Sea coast or from con- supplies if consumers find the higher tion Rebellion favours the holding ity of those sources. Anyone who centrated solar power plants in the cost to be unaffordable. of citizens’ assemblies but a better favours renewable energy must also Sahara. These long-distance sup- Hydro-electricity 50% procedure would be to use the local explain how they would address the plies of electricity (or energy trans- Labour’s Green New Deal planning system. Campaigning for supply gap. And if you reject nuclear mitted by hydrogen gas through a Solar energy 5% a change in government policy and energy you have to propose some- modified but existing gas pipeline The Labour Party has adopted a the convening of a citizens’ assem- thing else. infrastructure) would, of course, be Green New Deal policy to “work bly is no substitute for locally and Wind energy 12% more expensive than more locally- towards a path to net zero carbon industrially targeted drives to push Among the answers promoted by supplied wind generation. emissions by 2030, guaranteeing for prompt action. Local authorities energy supply companies and cam- … a just transition for workers.” It Nuclear energy 33% should be pressured to formulate paigners alike is ‘demand response’. Decentralised energy systems are agreed to formulate “a comprehen- plans to put the Green New Deal into This means that, as a consumer, also touted as a solution, whereby sive plan that leads the world in effect, borough by borough, county you would have an electricity sup- households share surplus electricity bold climate targets […] in collabo- Low carbon energy sources are only 5% of total energy supply by county. If a critical mass of coun- ply contract that links the price you they have generated from their solar ration with the trade unions and the in the world. cils agreed to do this, they would pay to the wholesale power market. panels or wind turbines. Although scientific community.” The party’s probably establish a country-wide

When, say, the wind is blowing, battery technology is developing rap- conference did not wholeheartedly S o u rce : U N E nergy tatistics Y earboo k 2016 coordinating mechanism to address

30 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 31 common issues. Such a bottom- Until there is a plan on how to but waiting until the next general up process should engage people achieve the target of net zero GHG election is not an option. The Brit- through questionnaires, social media emissions, the date and cost is ish labour movement can start the Where now for the and parish hall meetings. unknown. The UK Committee on just transition by targeted local Climate Change has calculated an initiatives and through trade union Local governments may lack the annual resource cost of up to 1-2% pressure on energy companies to powers that exist at national level of GDP to 2050, which implies a cost address their business risks as the Green Industrial Revolution? but they can work together to draw of at least £1 trillion (or 12 times Earth heats. Pushing forward on up realistic local plans for heating the cost of the high speed rail link the Green New Deal will channel homes and commercial premises, from London to the North of Eng- the enthusiasm generated by the by Brian Durrans for restricting town centre parking to land (HS2). [6] Fridays for the Planet movement low emission vehicles and in forcing among school pupils and Extinction Under the current Fixed-term Parlia- politics, essential though both are to petrol stations to offer electric vehi- It is only through an open planning Rebellion. Winning support for a ments Act (which it plans to scrap), what needs to be done, which is at cle recharging points. They can also process that controversial aspects just transition could show the world Boris Johnson’s government can once complicated, controversial and contribute to greening employment such as the expansion of nuclear how a country can leave the fossil remain in power for five years if it costly. In the absence of a Labour and training. energy or the adoption of hydrogen fuel economy behind and utilise the weathers the storms ahead. Not only Government we need to press the as an energy carrier can be resolved. planet’s natural resources sustain- the metaphorical storms of political one we have as hard as possible and Trade unions see the Green New Deal Opinions regarding the merits of ably and sparingly. action and social unrest provoked by build the movement that alone can as a programme to avoid the social nuclear energy are changing. Nucle- unpopular legislation but also actual make the irrefutable argument for costs that came with the forced ar energy is a proven technology storms, floods and other meteoro- climate action irresistible. closure of Britain’s coal mines in the that can generate a huge amount of logical mayhem which will remind [1] Martin Wolf, There is one way forward on cli- 1980s and 1990s. Although the likely power from a compact site whereas mate, Financial Times, 6 November 2019. everyone that too little is being done Winning commitment and new jobs in wind and solar energy of the other well-developed sources of to meet the UK’s modest climate action between 85,000 and 135,000 would low-carbon energy occupy a much [2] Jonathan Watts, Warnings given to the oil control commitments. not equal the number of jobs to be larger area in order to generate the industry from the 1950s still ignored, The Guardian, The argument itself is robust but 10 October 2019. lost in oil and gas extraction and coal same amount of electricity. The Price of defeat needs to be kept sharp and acces- mining (165,000), the impact on the IPCC defined nuclear energy a low- [3] Tom Bailey and others, 2019, Thirty Recom- sible; most of the matching policy economy from the massive invest- carbon energy source in a special mendations by 2030: Expert briefing for the Labour The price of losing the election will framework is in place or can be ment needed would far outweigh the report last year. The health risks Party, London, at . already worst-off after nearly a dec- urgency and commitment, the the GMB, Prospect, Unison and Unite nuclear energy are accepted by the ade of capitalist austerity and the essential task of winning key sec- [4] Labour Party, 2019, It’s Time for Real Change: Rebecca Long-Bailey agreed in 2018 to demand a just world science community as low if For the Many not the Few, The Labour Party Mani- many more whom Labour’s alterna- tions of the working class to this transition to a balanced low-carbon managed properly. [7] There are risks festo 2019, London: pp. 12 and 14-15. tive programme would have helped; the attention they deserved during cause will take patience and organi- energy system. [5] associated with the use of hydrogen and the Government’s foreign policy the election. Unfortunately, neither sation, especially in view of the but it is an option for electricity stor- [5] Prospect, GMB, Unite the Union, Unison, 18 puts at risk millions of others in Brit- Green New Deal nor Green Industrial Party’s setback in its former heart- December 2018, Demanding a Just Transition The senior management at energy age and for transportation, although ain and around the world. If – and Revolution was (or is) as simple and lands. Labour’s Green Industrial for Energy Workers at . that’s currently a big if - the Labour catchy as the winning Tory mantra Revolution plan is fit for purpose or coming, but until ‘it happens’ they and progressive movement mobi- of “Get Brexit Done”. Might “Green can be updated and popularised as will carry on doing business as usu- We can’t wait [6] UK Committee on Climate Change, 2019, Net lises on the scale required, some New Brexit” have fared better? Were the standard against which John- al. Complacency leaves the work- zero: The UK’s contribution to stopping global of the worst excesses of Johnson’s Labour’s green policies frog-marched son’s efforts in this direction can warming, London: pp. 8, 12, 180, 213, 220 and force highly vulnerable to a repeat The Green New Deal involves economics might be mitigated and into the manifesto rather than field- and must be judged. Labour and all 228. of the situation the miners found exchanging 14 million gas-fired the warmongers reined-in. However tested first? Was the manifesto itself who care about this issue need to themselves in when the National condensing boilers for other forms of [7] IPCC, 2018, Global warming of 1.5°C, Special those who – urged on by proven liars too much for most voters to take start fighting the next election now. Coal Board was restructured to be home heating; electrifying 10,100 km Report, Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell - in? It did a great job of linking other ready for privatisation. Financial of railway; replacing 33 million cars, Climate Change: pp. 17, 130-132, 461, 466, 485 lumbered Labour with its second EU commitments to the core of its green When working people are called on and 500-507. considerations will ultimately drive four million vans, 530,000 HGVs referendum policy, and thus lost it policy; but that core needed to shine to support their exploiters in times the closure of the fossil fuel indus- and 160,000 buses and coaches with [8] IPCC, 2018, Global warming of 1.5°C, Special the election, have jeopardised the like a beacon for everything else. of war or economic difficulty, they’re tries because greenhouse gas emis- electric or hydrogen-powered vehi- Report, Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on very future of the planet. If you want told that the short-term sacrifices sions are an unquantifiable liability. cles; and closing the six remaining Climate Change: pp. 140, 320, 326, 333, 335, 460 the full power of the state used to Recrimination won’t win back five they make will be rewarded by Energy workers have therefore coal-fired power plants and most of and 504. safeguard present and future gen- years for effective action on climate longer-term benefits to themselves prepared a set of demands for adap- the 45 large gas-fired power plants. erations, Boris Johnson is last person change. Labour’s new leader and - in the case of war, even by dubi- tation, re-training and re-location, There also needs to be a plan to deal you want as Prime Minister. depleted MPs must press the Gov- ous benefits like being remembered with no communities ‘left behind’, with emissions from agriculture ernment for what’s needed and hold when someone wears a poppy. as was the case in the coalfields. The and investment in reforestation Labour’s Green New Deal (GND) and them to account, and those who four energy unions recognise the to absorb the residual emissions Green Industrial Revolution (GIR) elected and canvassed for these MPs In a parliamentary democracy, the importance of securing a long-term from other activities. These plans – see the 2019 manifesto [1] - were must press them in turn. But the government often tries a similar plan to secure a sustainable future. will need government investment ably championed by Shadow Minis- matter can’t be left to Parliament confidence trick when seeking re- ter, Rebecca Long-Bailey but denied or the normal channels of party election. A promise to restore to the

32 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 33 book review

social wage a credible yet still lesser understanding that the environment ers to account. People need to hold sum than it had previously withheld, and therefore all of us are currently governments, parties and local such as during the near decade-long in real danger. David Attenborough’s authorities to their own commit- and - at the time of writing - not-yet programmes attract a mass audi- ments, and to ensure those commit- Treason abandoned austerity, may be pre- ence. But diet, doing without plastic ments and measures taken are the sented as a “reward” to those who bags or recycling household waste, right ones. There’s no substitute for Rebel Warriors and Internationalist Traitors never consented to the sacrifices instead of being experienced as a state intervention (most effective as which government policies forced step in the right direction, can seem socialist planning), but we should them to make, rather than a bribe mere antidotes to feeling power- also be clear that for maximum Review by Brian Durrans encourage engagement in that task for votes. It’s not clear, if Johnson less: “at least I’m doing something”. effect personal contributions are which, even if it is unsuccessful, didn’t win on Brexit alone, that many People need and deserve a sense that also necessary. Dating from at least the thirteenth may help people appreciate what believed his promises to restore their actions matter. That means century, “treason” is a legal term success requires. funding to schools and hospitals, of embedding understanding through This approach worked well in the referring to political or violent acts which Tory and coalition austerity shared engagement focused on spe- worldwide movement against South judged by representatives of the state This book, the fruit of a workshop had deprived them. So, even though cific, strategically-coherent, achiev- African Apartheid. The boycott (i.e. of the ruling class) seriously to convened in 2018 by the London saving the planet really is in the com- able targets, where it is clear what campaign was easy for consumers subvert its integrity or stability. If Socialist Historians Group, focuses mon interest, we can’t use the “jam progress has been made and what’s to join, who knew or at least hoped caught, convicted traitors usually on “internationalist renegades and tomorrow” argument, because many still to do. Whatever the issue, the that by refusing to buy Outspan face execution or life imprisonment. traitors”, all of them Europeans, people are justifiably suspicious of it. best way to learn about it and to deal oranges, for example, they were con- Whether bribed, coerced or acting from the early nineteenth century to with it confidently is through co- tributing to the struggle for justice. on principle, the traitor is feared or the 1960s. In their Introduction, the If at least some of the measures in operating with others. Many who began as ethical consum- despised by those siding with the editors deny such episodes consti- the Green New Deal can be imple- ers later got involved in other ways established order, but not always tute a “tradition” but still claim they mented under this Tory government, To apply that understanding and but even just on their own such acts admired or celebrated by its oppo- offer “timely lessons in intransigent people will need to be convinced confidence to best effect is ideally felt right, and they helped people to nents. In class terms, the moral com- internationalism”. If by “timely” is that it really is in their own interests done not through ad hoc arrange- a deeper understanding of the strug- pass ought to be clear, but in practice meant that in the world’s current and in the interests of those they ments but existing structures, gle to which even just a trip to the “treason” foregrounds individuals turmoil global justice, including the care about, both now and in the political and workplace party or supermarket really did contribute. or groups who break, often with prevention of war and environmen- short-term future. Quick benefits, union branches, community groups What today’s cynic might dismiss as conspicuous heroism or cunning (or tal disaster, demands international- rather than just promises of trans- or campaigning organisations, all “virtue signalling” at least signalled both), with the routine class-collabo- ism more urgently than ever, then formations favouring only those who with sustained memberships giving that it was indeed a virtue to take Steve Cushion and Christian ration that maintains the status quo. it makes sense; but less clear is why outlive us, will also be essential well capacity for outreach and alliances. action. Høgsbjerg (eds.) But unless the stakes are already our internationalism needs to be before Labour has the chance, in However infectious their spontaneity, (London, Socialist History Society high in terms of national self-deter- “intransigent” rather than effective. government, to enact the full GND. informal assemblies or networks may The GND can even do even better Occasional Publication no. 44, 2019, mination or class power, such acts What’s worse: letting the Tories unravel when enthusiasm wanes. than that by benefiting people mate- 94pp, paperback; £5) alone rarely galvanise those whose The book’s nine examples of people claim credit for what we force them It can’t be over-emphasised that, as rially as well as morally. For this to interests they aim to serve. or groups acting “disloyally” on their to do to do or sabotaging the planet? a strategy for climate justice, and be understood, our focus should be convictions make inspiring reading, especially when the government is on the GND in its specific form of Admiring heroes with the hindsight and it is always worth a reminder One precedent where longer-term not on your side, the GND needs to be the Green Industrial Revolution – of history is one thing; siding with that solidarity overcomes divisions benefits really did justify short-term rooted in the Labour Movement and producing and consuming more of them at the time is another. Those such as those of class and nation sacrifices was the Second World War. help win elections. what we need rather than produc- who flush out and punish traitors to further the interests of exploited Helping the UK grasp and accept ing (or importing) and consuming exploit widespread and well-founded and subject peoples. As these stories what needed to be done then were Priority: global heating what we don’t. This can be grasped disapproval of deceit to undermine make clear, the course of such strug- both the example of the Soviet Union by anyone and everyone as simple, their reputations (calling a former gles is seldom predictable; activ- and our own, powerful anti-fascist The priority is not plastic in the common-sense and making most home-team player a “traitor” shows ists often but not always learn the movement, based in the working oceans nor alleviating drought here people better off. If Tories can’t how unforgiving football fans can be lessons of experience; and – perhaps class and active during the previous or floods there, but to curb global implement that, Labour must try to if s/he now plays a game for visit- most strikingly – in none of these few years. Today we lack the equiva- heating. That’s where the big science by any means necessary. ing rivals); and although an enemy examples is the struggle for libera- lent examples and arguments in the is, and we already have most of the of my state may be a loyal servant tion yet complete: not in the Carib- working class itself with which to national and supranational bodies in of yours, such loyalty only confirms bean where Polish soldiers sided help popularise the GND, but getting place to commission and interpret [1] https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/ that if an enemy at the gate is bad with Haitian revolutionaries; nor it implemented at least in part by a the evidence, formulate targets for enough, one in the living room is far in Mexico whose nationalists were reluctant government would still be a states and corporations and call for worse. Such acts of treachery, how- strengthened by an Irish battalion; step forward. compliance. Any decent government ever sincere and justified in their nor in Ireland itself whose independ- could help steer this process not just own terms, and however inspiring ence cause also inspired British If most people are understandably here but across the world. for others in their own day or down volunteers; nor in Germany where sceptical of apparently self-interested the decades, do not in themselves some workers and soldiers defied scare-mongering from the upper- But we still need states, sharehold- make the case for replacing the the Nazis and sided with the USSR class, there’s also a broad if shallow ers and citizens to hold big pollut- existing order nor do they usually or, in France, joined the Resistance;

34 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020 Spring 2020 / THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT 35 nor in Ethiopia where a handful of increasingly militarised world of gle arms to the ANC’s armed wing Italian Communists helped locals nation-states and global (dis)order inside South Africa hardly deserves resist the fascist occupation; nor in and suggest that the heroic (and mention by comparison not only Indochina or Algeria whose armed hitherto largely unsung) individuals with what the Cubans did but also resistance attracted a few recruits who feature in the book deserve rec- with what even rather unradical from the colonial side. ognition for their sacrifices. There’s students (and others) did to help a strong case for that, but a stronger bring down the regime by closing Effective internationalism one for asking the harder question of or refusing to open accounts with what kind of activity is best suited to Barclays Bank until it withdrew from What can be done, in the present, present challenges. the apartheid state. with the information provided in this book? In their Introduction the Even in the examples mentioned in Was that “intransigent” internation- editors trace a thin historical line the book itself, not all “treasonable” alism? Maybe. But as an example (not, remember, a “tradition”) of work involved taking up arms, and of effective internationalism, that examples of “treasonable” behaviour even where this was important it boycott can better inform current from the English Civil War, via the was by no means the only means and future strategies (such as BDS – focus of each chapter and includ- of struggle. In the case of defeating the Palestinian-led Boycott, Divest- ing the International Brigades in apartheid, military assistance from ment and Sanctions campaign) than Republican Spain and the struggle the Socialist countries was certainly apparently more heroic or “treason- against South African Apartheid decisive (most conspicuously, as able” acts. In any case, attempts by and (very briefly) up to the current Mandela acknowledged, from Cuba opponents of Palestinian rights to struggle for Palestine. At the end of at Cuito Cuanavale), but the editors’ outlaw BDS are beginning to make their Introduction they rightly point passing reference (p. 16) to “British campaigners seem heroic simply for to the persistent class-divided and radical students” helping smug- being effective internationalists.

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36 THE SOCIALIST CORRESPONDENT / Spring 2020