CHAPTER 6
ciinIkcm-nTsa. Ics AN D FTRF_] VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE DRY RATNP-ORET REOURCE
6.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the results of investigations into the configuration and some key characteristics of the dry rainforest patches, leading to the development of a procedure for classifying the fire vulnerability of dry rainforest patches.
In recognising the significance of fire to dry rainforest communities (as discussed in Chapter 2), certain characteristics of the dry rainforest patches that occur in the Apsley - Macleay Gorges are thought to be relevant in evaluating the importance and perhaps the historical role of fire to each patch and to the rainforest resource as a whole. In this chapter, the relevant patch characteristics are categorised into fire susceptibility factors and fire proneness factors which are discussed below. These two factors are subsequently combined into a fire vulnerability index.
6.2 Characteristics Determining The Fire Susceptibility and Fire Proneness of Rainforest Patches
6.2.1 Fire Susceptibility
As used in this thesis, the fire susceptibility of dry rainforest patches relates to the perceived impact a fire event or series of fire events would be likely to have on rainforest
81 Chapter 6 patches. That is, it refers to the significance of fire to the integrity and continued existence of the rainforest patches should a fire event occur. Susceptibility does not refer to the likelihood of a fire event occurring, a matter discussed under the heading of fire proneness in the next section.
The configuration of patches (i.e., their shape, size and area perimeter ratio) is thought to be the primary variable influencing their fire susceptibility. For example, it appears that the significance of and potential for fire damage was greater for the smaller and more linear shaped dry rainforest patches and less for the larger, more compact patches. Furthermore, the greater distance of boundary relative to the patch area (characteristic of the smaller, linear shaped patches and reflected in the measurement of their area : perimeter ratio) ensure that potential fire impacts would be significant to the integrity and continued existence of the patch as a whole. The protective nature of the rainforest microclimate is less well developed in these patches and would be likely to break-down more rapidly than in the larger, compact patches with high area : perimeter ratios.
The current configuration of a patch may, in addition to indicating its current fire susceptibility, also reflect the past impact of fire. Indeed, patch configuration may largely be the result of fire superimposed on other controlling factors, including edaphic and topographic conditions. As such, therefore, alteration of fire regimes may permit patch configuration to change and hence the currently perceived susceptibility of the patch may also alter.
6.2.2 Fire Proneness
The fire proneness of rainforest patches is somewhat independent of susceptibility and refers largely to those factors that have some bearing on the actual potential for fire occurrence and its likely behaviour in the vicinity of patches. Patch fire proneness characteristics include: patch
82 Chapter 6 physiographic factors (i.e., aspect, slope angle, topographic position and elevation); the flammability and fuel loading of adjoining vegetation communities; and also climatic factors. In essence, fire proneness refers to the actual likelihood of a particular rainforest patch being influenced by fire.
6.2.2.1 Physiographic Factors
Physiography is a major factor governing fire proneness through its influence on fire behaviour. The most significant components of physiography are aspect, slope angle, topographic position, local relief or elevation, and gorge type and orientation.
As aspect influences both the amount of solar radiation an area receives and also the degree of exposure to prevailing winds, those dry rainforest patches with a predominantly north-west aspect are likely to be drier than those with south-east aspects and hence may be more fire prone and / or likely to reflect greater past fire impact. While being drier and permitting fuels to dry out faster, north-west aspects also may tend to support less vegetation and thus less potential total fuel loads. However, the drier, desiccating conditions of the north-west aspect may also slow litter decomposition, thereby permitting fuels to accumulate. Further, aspects facing the prevailing winds may also be subject to more frequent and intense fires. Fire weather in N.S.W. is most serious when hot, dry winds blow from the inland, principally the north-west (Luke and McArthur 1978, 291).
Slope modifies fire behaviour in much the same way as wind. Increasing slope angle and wind speed bring flames into closer contact with the fuel bed and result in more efficient preheating by radiation and more efficient ignition by point contact (Cheney 1981, 171). Thus, fires tend to burn more rapidly upslope (up to approximately 30° slope after which fuel discontinuities may occur ) and less rapidly downslope (McArthur 1962; Cheney 1981, 172). Consequently, up to a point, fire spread and intensities are likely to be greater on
83 Chapter 6 the steeper slopes in the gorges and hence are likely to have a greater impact on those dry rainforest patches that occur there.
The topographic position of patches is particularly important with regard to both fire occurrence and fire behaviour. Both meso-scale and micro-scale meteorological variables and the accompanying influences on fuel moisture content and wind speed near the ground vary with topographic position in the landscape (Cheney 1981, 171). Further, as a general rule, dry rainforest patches positioned in gully lines are probably relatively protected from fire, both in terms of climatic factors and fire occurrence, with these positions usually being moister. In addition, fire influences on these gully-line patches are usually only possible from above the community. Indeed, patches in these positions may actually be "fire-safe", although their current refugial distribution may reflect past fire occurrences and / or current fire limits. Patches in other topographic positions have greater potential for fire impact, as fire potentially may occur both upslope and downslope of the dry rainforest patch and conditions are likely to be less mesic.
As a general rule, minimum and maximum temperatures decrease with increasing elevation. Accordingly, rainforest patches at lower elevations are likely to experience higher summer temperatures than patches at higher elevations, and hence may dry out more rapidly. Thus, fires may be more frequent and/or more severe at lower elevations (Cheney 1981, 171).
6.2.2.2 Fuel and Flammability Factors
The nature and proximity of adjoining vegetation communities to dry rainforest patches may have a substantial bearing on the relative proneness of patches to fire events and the intensity of individual fire events. Furthermore, the top and bottom margins of patches have differential proneness to fire. They also have differential likely response related to differing
84 Chapter 6
fire intensities that are likely to occur on the upslope and downslope positions of patches.
Fuel levels, flammability and fire frequency vary with the type of vegetation community. Consequently, the type of vegetation community adjoining dry rainforest patches may indicate both the past likely intensity and frequency of fire events and the potential likelihood or proneness of the patches to fires in the future. As stated previously, the vegetation communities adjoining rainforest dry out more rapidly than the rainforest and carry fire much more effectively and frequently. These fires can enter rainforest under certain conditions, but more often they result in scorching and mortality of the rainforest margin to varying degrees. If these events recur frequently or intensely enough, alteration to the rainforest margin structure or its geographic location will result.
6.2.2.3 Climatic and Edaphic Factors
Rainfall and edaphic factors such as geology and soils may also influence the fire-proneness of dry rainforest patches and affect their ability to regenerate after fire events. Dry rainforest patches on the drier and / or poorer sites are likely to have a more open canopy and lower stature predisposing them to drying out and hence to fire. These factors also exert considerable influence on the ability of a damaged community to regenerate, protracting their recovery period and hence increasing patch proneness to further fire.
Thus, certain intrinsic patch characteristics influence the susceptibility and proneness of rainforest patches to fire events. The likelihood that fire will come into contact with a rainforest patch, and the impact that any particular fire will have on the patch will vary and be influenced by the actual dry rainforest structural type, in addition to the various inherent (patch configuration) and key ecological factors outlined above. The severity and duration of dry seasons prior to and after fire events will also be important as will the nature and extent of any damage to the structure of
85 Chapter 6 the dry rainforest community. This latter factor will control the accumulation of fuel and the establishment of flammable `weed species within the community itself.
6.3 Specific Objectives of the Investigation
Due to the extensive nature of the study area, the overall objective of this phase of the study is to devise, implement and subsequently evaluate a low-cost, management-oriented method to assess the current fire vulnerability of the dry rainforest in the Apsley - Macleay Gorges.
The aim is to develop a management prescription that can be implemented by NPWS field personnel, utilizing extensive, low cost procedures such as remote imagery resources coupled with periodic aerial reconnaissance.
The specific objectives are twofold. The first involves describing the resource of rainforest patches both in terms of inherent characteristics (i.e., their configuration) which have a bearing on patch susceptibility to wildfire, and the key ecological characteristics which relate to patch proneness to wildfire. The second involved developing a provisional classification of rainforest patch fire vulnerability based on the fire susceptibility and proneness criteria used to assess each patch. The resulting classification aims to identify several classes of dry rainforest patch that range from low to high fire vulnerability.
Each group of rainforest patches so defined are effectively comprised of rainforest patches with similar attributes which have a bearing on both their relative fire susceptibility and fire proneness. The classification, therefore, aims to provide a basis for prioritising and targeting fire management prescriptions in the Gorges.
Detailed descriptions of the results of the investigations are reported elsewhere (Bennett and Cassells 1989). In this
86 Chapter 6 chapter, the results of the investigations are presented as a series of summary statistics and statements about the distribution and nature of the rainforest and the fire vulnerability status of the resource.
6.4 Methodology
6.4.1 Interpretation and Mapping
A broadscale methodological approach was used for the study with all data being derived from vegetation maps produced by the Armidale Office of the National Parks and Wildlife Service. These maps were compiled utilising the available black and white aerial photography of the study area which was of varying scale (i.e., ranging from 1:47,000 to 1:210,000 scale) and age (i.e., photography ranging in age from 1967 to 1975).
The total population of each vegetation community within the study area, exceeding approximately a half hectare in area, was able to be delineated by Service staff on the aerial photos and their boundaries subsequently transferred to the 16 corresponding 1:25,000 scale topographic map sheets with appropriate scale rectification. The map sheets covering the study area are listed in Appendix 6.1.
The accuracy of the vegetation boundaries on the final vegetation maps is influenced by several factors, of which the most important included: i) operator error in identifying and delineating ve g etation boundaries on aerial photographs and in the subsequent transferring of this scale-rectified data to map sheets; ii) the varying scale and age of photography affecting precise location of vegetation boundaries due to resolution problems and vegetation dynamics occurring over time; and
87 Chapter 6 iii) the inferiority of available black and white aerial photography in comparison to colour photography for accurate vegetation boundary determination.
The extent of inaccuracy is variable throughout the study area depending on the age and scale of the appropriate photo runs but overall is considered to be sufficiently minor in view of the broadscale nature of this study. Data collection is, therefore, limited to those parameters that are observable and measurable from these remote resources.
By its nature, this implies some limitations to the accuracy of the study. However, patterns delineated at this scale and detail and subsequently sam p led and tested in the field were thought to be the most efficient and satisfactory method available in view of the objectives and time constraints of the study.
6.4.2 Data Collection
Initially, the 290,000 Ha. study area was sub-divided into geographic management zones (GMZs) to facilitate the grouping of rainforest patches into zones that can be treated as distinct management units. Eight GMZs (of unequal areas) were recognised and delineated, their boundaries utilising natural features such as rivers and ridge-lines wherever possible (see Figure 6.1). Sub-division was based on largely subjective criteria, including: access; precipitation gradients; perceived fire history; and gross observable differences (at 1:100,000 scale) in rainforest patterns in terms of patch shape and size.
Rainforest patches (predominantly dry rainforest but also including small areas of subtropical, warm and cool temperate rainforest) formed the fundamental unit for analysis in this study. Accordingly, data was extracted from the vegetation maps on the total population of individual rainforest patches exceeding approximately a half hectare in area. Each rainforest patch was uniquely coded (identifying it within GMZ
88 Figure 6.1
Geographic Management Zones
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
20 20
15. 15
10 10
(1)5 05
95 g5
90. 90
85 85
80 80
5 75
70
55 65
60.. 60
55: 55
50 .50
45 75 30 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 Chapter 6 and map sheet) and described in terms of inherent and ecological characteristics.
The inherent characteristics measured, described the configuration of the rainforest patch and included the shape, area, perimeter and area perimeter ratio of each patch. Ecological characteristics measured included those factors affecting the distribution of the patch in the landscape, such as physiography (i.e., slope angle, elevation, topographic position and gorge type and orientation) rainfall, adjoining vegetation community and fire history.
This information, extracted from the 1:25,000 scale map sheets, was coded onto Fortran coding sheets before being entered onto the University of New England s GOULD Mainframe computer.
Where possible, variables were measured in real terms, i • e actual area, perimeter lengths, area : perimeter ratios and elevation, however, the majority were assessed according to ordinal variable classes, often arbitrarily derived.
The study encompassed the entire population of rainforest patches in the Gorges and hence detailed statistical analysis of data is unnecessary. Consequently, only descriptive statistical analysis (frequencies and crosstabulations) were undertaken on the data, utilizing the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS x ) (Nie 1983). To agglomerate rainforest patches into groups in terms of similarity, exploratory cluster analyses using the CLUSTAN programme was attempted. However, the cluster patterns described by this programme did not produce any groupings from the very large data base that were useful for management planning purposes. Thus, the more laborious "select if" command on the SPSSX package was used to define groupings of the rainforest patches.
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Chapter 6
6.4.3 Inherent Rainforest Patch Characteristics
6.4.3.1 Area, Perimeter and Area : Perimeter Ratio
The area, perimeter length and derived area : perimeter ratios of each patch were measured using a digital planimeter on the University of New England Tektronix 4054 computer. Patch area was measured to the nearest hectare, perimeter to the nearest metre and area : perimeter ratio calculated in terms of square metre of patch area per metre of boundary.
Because of the very rugged and steep nature of the terrain of the study area, the simple plan measurements of area, perimeter and area : perimeter ratio of rainforest patches probably underestimates their true extent, particularly in the steepest areas. Consequently, all measurements are likely to represent minimum values. However, as the plan measurements essentially maintain relativities between different patches this possible underestimation is not considered to affect the usefulness of the results of the study for management purposes.
Actual measurements of patch area, perimeter and area : perimeter ratio were grouped into several classes. These groupings are listed in Table 6.1.
Table 6.1
Patch Area, Perimeter and A:P Ratio Classes
Area Perimeter Area:Perimeter Ratio (ha.) (km.) ( m2 /m) <5 <1 <20
5-20 1-5 20-50
20-100 5-10 50-100
>100 10-20 >100
>20
90 Chapter 6
6.4.3.2 Shape
A qualitative hierarchical patch shape classification was developed from observations of rainforest patch patterns delineated on 1:100,000 scale maps of the study area.
Each patch was assessed according to this classification into one of eight shape classes. The classification system is hierarchically arranged according to three levels. These are listed below: i) BLOCK / LINEAR
- Block: patch distinctly block shaped, with a compact margin relative to area;
- Linear: patch elongated or in thin strips usually along gully lines with large boundaries relative to area. ii) SIMPLE / COMPLEX
- Simple: patch predominantly (80-90%) block or linear in shape;
- Complex: patch of mixed shape, with one predominating but the other also important.
iii) BRANCHED / NON-BRANCHED
- Branched: evident branching of rainforest from main block or linear patch
- Non-branched: branching not evident from main block or linear patch.
To minimize the complexity of analysis, the eight shape classifications were grouped into four main categories. These were: Block-Simple; Block-Complex; Linear-Simple; Linear- Complex. It was thought that these two parameters of shape were sufficient for analysis, and that little definition was lost at the broadscale level with the omission of the third parameter of branched / non-branched.
91 Chapter 6
6.4.4 Ecological Characteristics of Rainforest Patches
6.4.4.1 Aspect
Each rainforest patch was assessed in terms of the predominant direction or aspect it was facing and allocated to one of the eighteen 20° aspect classes that best represented the entire unit. Patches restricted to gully lines were classified as being oriented in the direction of the gully. For analysis, the eighteen aspect classes were further grouped into two main categories of westerly (drier, 0° - 20°, 201° - 360°) and easterly (moister, 21° - 200°) aspects.
6.4.4.2 Slope
The predominant slope angle of the terrain on which each patch was positioned was measured through examination of contour spacing on the 1:25,000 scale map sheets. Logistically, only slopes up to approximately 220 could be accurately differentiated from contour spacings.
Ideally, slope angles greater than 22° should be further separated, particularly those slopes exceeding 30°, where fuel discontinuities may occur. However, limitations of the accuracy and resolution of the map sheets did not facilitate accurate and rapid assessment beyond approximately 22°. For analysis slope angle classes were grouped into three main categories. These were as follows:
i) 0-12° (low)
ii) 12-22° (moderate)
iii) >22° (high)
6.4.4.3 Elevation
The altitude or elevation of each rainforest patch was estimated in actual metres above sea level (ASL) from contours on the 1:25,000 scale topographic map sheets. Each patch was recorded in terms of its maximum elevation (the top edge of the patch), minimum elevation (the bottom edge of the patch), and
92 Chapter 6 average elevation (the average elevation of the unit as a whole).
Actual measurements of maximum, minimum and average elevation were grouped into three classes of elevation to facilitate analysis. These were from low to high as follows:
i) <400m (low)
ii) 401 - 800m (medium)
iii) >801m (high)
6.4.4.4 Topographic Position
Each rainforest patch was recorded as positioned in one of four major groups of topographic position that have particular importance in differentiating the potential fire proneness of rainforest patches. The four categories were, from least to most fire prone, as follows:
i) restricted to gully lines;
ii) gully line with side-slope extensions;
iii) side-slopes; and
iv) upper slope / ridge line.
6.4.4.5 Rainfall
Each rainforest patch was allocated to an annual average rainfall class based on the rainfall isohyet map of the study area prepared by King (1980, 19) (see Figure 3.2). These classes provide a convenient index of water availability to plant communities. However, the location of the isohyet boundaries are only very approximate and are therefore indicative rather than definitive.
6.4.4.6 Gorge Type and Orientation
The gorge within which each rainforest patch was located was classified and recorded in terms of its orientation (i.e., direction gorge facing) and width (i.e., wide or narrow).
93 Chapter 6
Gorges were considered "wide" if their width exceeded their length, and "narrow" if their length exceeded their width. Eight categories of gorge type - orientation were delineated.
6.4.4.7 Adjoining Community
Each rainforest patch was further described in terms of the vegetation community adjoining the patch on both the upslope and downslope margins. Other communities adjoining the patches from the sides were also recorded in addition to the major upslope and downslope communities.
Due to the peculiarity of some rainforest patch shapes, the classification of the downslope adjoining community was difficult. Some patches had very small downslope extensions of the patch to rivers and creeks, but the majority of the downslope edge was actually higher than these features and adjoined other vegetation communities. In all cases, therefore, the downslope community was taken as the dominant community adjoining the patch from below and may indeed extend up the sides of the patch.
Five categories of adjoining community were recorded in this study according to their perceived flammability and hence fire proneness (Greg Roberts N.P.W.S. pers. comm.). These categories were, from most to least flammable:
i) Lantana;
ii) Cleared / grassland;
iii) Eucalypt forest;
iv) Eucalypt woodland and Acacia scrub; and
v) Inert (rock, scree or river).
Whilst the broadscale assessment did not reveal any Lantana adjoining rainforest patches, field investigations did in fact locate areas of this vegetation adjoining rainforest. This variation occurred as a result of the broadscale nature of the remotely sensed resources available for the study and indicates some of the limitations of total reliance on this approach.
94 Chapter 6
6.4.4.8 Fire History
Information regarding past fire events in the gorges was obtained from the N.P.W.S. 1:100,000 scale maps of recorded fires compiled from aerial reconnaissance and landholder interviews. This data was used in conjunction with the information gained from the more comprehensive land manager fire history questionnaire survey presented in Chapter 5. Both these sources of information are subject to considerable uncertainty due to the nature of mapping fire boundaries from the air and inaccuracies associated with the recollections of precise fire boundaries from landholders memories. Consequently, rainforest patched were recorded according to the simple procedure of whether they occurred within or outside the boundaries of recorded fire events. The lack of sufficiently high-resolution aerial photographs of the study area precluded assessment of the boundary condition (as discussed in Chapter 4) of rainforest patches, which provides an indication of past fire impact.
6.4.5 Fire Vulnerability Assessment
The fire vulnerability of the rainforest patches was assessed in terms of both the susceptibility of the patch to damage should it be impacted by fire and the proneness of the patch in terms of the likelihood of it actually experiencing a fire event. Matrices of key variables of both susceptibility and proneness were subsequently combined into an overall fire vulnerability matrix. The procedures for classifying the patches in the matrices are described below.
6.4.5.1 Fire Susceptibility Matrix
As discussed in Section 6.4.1, the configuration (i.e., shape, size and area : perimeter ratio) of patches was the best available assessment of the susceptibility of patches to damage from fire events. The variable, patch shape was simplified into two classes (i.e., linear and block shape) and the
95 Chapter 6 variables, patch area and area : perimeter ratio were each subdivided into the four classes as defined in Table 6.1.
The rainforest patch fire susceptibility matrix was constructed using these three variables differentially weighted. Weightings were applied to each variable class reflecting the perceived importance of each class in terms of affecting the susceptibility of each rainforest patch to damage should a fire come into contact with it. The higher the variable class weighting the less the significance to fire susceptibility.
Essentially, therefore, patches with high indices of susceptibility are less susceptible to fire damage than those with low indices. The variable classes and associated weightings are listed in Table 6.2 below.
Table 6.2
Susceptibility Matrix Variables and Weightings
Shape (weight) Area (weight) A:P Ratio (weight) ( ha. ) ( m 2 int )
Linear (1) <5 (1) <20 (1)
Block (2) 5-20 (2) 20-50 (2)
20-100 (6) 50-100 (4)
>100 (12) >100 (6)
Linear and block shaped patches were separated because they are easily visually distinguishable from aerial photography. However, due to the subjective nature of their delineation their separation did not warrant more than a 1 : 2 weighting. Patch area was considered to be the most im p ortant single variable, with small patches thought to be particularly susceptible to fire damage and the larger patches considerably less so. The weightings applied reflect this perception. Furthermore, A:P ratio was also considered quite important,
96 Chapter 6 but less so than area, a perception again reflected in the nominated weightings.
The result of the matrix was a list of variable class combinations of the patch variables used and a numeric index of the variable class combination susceptibility. The index was derived from summing the weightings of the three variable classes making up each particular combination. Some variable class combinations were found to be non-existent in the study area and were excluded. The full listing of possible combinations is provided in Appendix 6.2.
Based on the susceptibility index, the listing of variable class combinations were subdivided into four approximately equal groups representing differential patch susceptibility to damage from fire events (i.e., indexes :6, 6-10, 11-15 and 16- 20). Group one patches were most susceptible while group four patches were least susceptible. Groupings reflected perceived differences in the likely responses of patches to fire.
6.4.5.2 Fire Proneness Matrix
The proneness of rainforest patches to fire events was thought to relate to the key ecological characteristics of patches identified in Section 6.2.2. The most significant of these were thought to be predominant aspect; predominant slope angle; predominant topographic position; and the patch s predominant downslope adjoining community. Aspect was taken as being east or west, slope angle and topographic position each according to their combined classes presented earlier, and downslope adjoining community as the four classes defined in Section 6.4.4.7.
Again differential weightings were ap p lied to each variable class reflecting the perceived importance of the variable class in effecting fire proneness characteristics of patches. The higher the weighting the less fire prone the patch variable class.
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Chapter 6
The matrix was constructed using the four ecological variables defined above and the differential weightings attached to the various classes of each parameter. The proneness variables and their allocated weightings are presented in Table 6.3.
Table 6.3
Fire Proneness Variables and Weightings
Aspect (weight) Slope Angle (weight)
West (1) >22° (1)
East (2) 12-22° (2)
<12° (3)
Downslope Adj. Comm (weight) Topo. Position (weight)
Cleared/Grassland (1) Upper Sl./Ridge (1)
Forest. (2) Low-Mid Slope (2)
Woodland/Acacia (6) Gully Extent. (4)
Inert (12) Gully Line (6)
All four of these variables were thought likely to influence the behaviour of any potential fires. The delineation of variable classes reflect perceived significant differences between the classes. The downslope adjoining community and topographic position of rainforest patches were thought to be particularly important fire proneness variables, whilst aspect and slope angle were somewhat less important. The allocated weightings reflect these perceptions of the importance of the variables.
The results of the fire proneness matrix, like the susceptibility matrix, occurred as a gradational list of combinations of variable classes with a numeric inde:;.
98 Chapter 6 reflecting the fire proneness of each combination. The full listing of possible proneness combinations are presented in Appendix 6.3. Based on the proneness index the possible variable combinations were subdivided into four fire proneness categories (i.e., <8, 8-14, 15-20, and 21-27). Group 1 patches were most prone and group 4 least prone to fire events.
6.4.5.3 Fire Vulnerability Matrix
As stated previously, the fire vulnerability of individual rainforest patches refers to the combined susceptibility and proneness of patches to fire. Some rainforest patches may be highly susceptible to fire impacts but occur in positions that are not prone to fire occurrence and vice versa. Accordingly, a matrix was constructed which produced all the possible combinations from combining the four classes of susceptibility with the four classes of proneness similarly weighted. The variables and weightings are summarised in Table 6.4.
Table 6.4
Vulnerability Variables and Weightings
Fire Susceptibility (weight) Fire Proneness (weight)
Extreme (1) Extreme (1)
High (2) High (2)
Moderate ( 3 ) Moderate ( 3 )
Low (4) Low (4)
The resulting vulnerability matrix listed the possible combinations of patch susceptibility and proneness to fire and a numeric index of each combination s fire vulnerability. The full listing of possible vulnerability combinations is presented in Appendix 6.4.
99 Chapter 6
The vulnerability indexes were subsequently grouped into four classes of fire vulnerability (i.e., indices <4, 4, 5-6, and 7- 8). The entire resource of rainforest patches was assessed by this class index and classified according to overall fire vulnerability.
6.5 Results and Discussion
6.5.1 Inherent Rainforest Patch Characteristics
Within the 290,000 ha. study area, there exists some 735 discrete patches or pockets of rainforest vegetation each exceeding approximately half hectare in plan area. As was described by King (1980, 39), some rainforest species in the Gorges occur as isolated individuals or in very small groups (i.e., less than half hectare), too small to be mapped from aerial photography and hence not included in this analysis. However, the exclusion of this very small aerial component should not substantially affect this assessment of the overall dry rainforest resource in the study area.
Collectively the rainforest patches cover approximately 18,430 ha. or some 6.4% of the study area. However, due to the steeply sloping nature of much of the terrain in the Apsley - Macleay Gorges, this measure of the plan areas of rainforest patches probably underestimates the true aerial extent of this vegetation type in the Gorges.
Three of the 735 rainforest patches identified occurred partially outside the study area and hence were excluded from analysis. Of the 732 patches assessed, patch size ranged from less than 1 ha. through to some 1,020 ha. in area. The mean patch size was approximately 25.3 ±66.5 ha., while the median size was only some 7 ha. The distribution of rainforest patches according to size was negatively skewed and leptokurtic
Standard Deviation
100 Chapter 6 i.e., distribution is skewed towards the smaller values and is more clustered / peaked than a normal distribution.
The length of rainforest patch perimeters were also markedly variable ranging from a minimum of just 40 metres through to a maximum length of some 83,000m. The mean patch perimeter• length was approximately 3,600 + 6,440m while the median len,ah was some 1,730m. Distribution of patches according to perimeter length was also negatively skewed and leptokurtic. As with the plan measurement of patch areas, the measured extent of patch perimeters probably underestimates their true extent to some degree.
The ratio of rainforest patch area (in square metres (m 2 ) ) to patch perimeter (in metres (m)) was again quite variable ranging from less than 1 m 2 /m through to some 281 m2 /m. The mean patch area : perimeter (A:P) ratio was approximately 50 35 m2 /m while the median was only some 39 m2 /m. Again, the distribution of patches according to A:P ratio was negatively skewed and leptokurtic.
Large A:P ratios indicate those patches that have a relatively large area with respect to their perimeter length whilst those with low ratios indicate the converse. Rainforest patches with high ratios tend to be large and compact, with less convoluted boundaries than those patches with low ratios. Hence, the larger the patch and the more circular the shape of it s boundary, the higher the A:P ratio.
6.5.1.1 Rainforest Patch Area Categorisation
The proportions of the rainforest resource categorised into four patch area classes are summarised in Figure 6.2. The mean perimeter lengths and A:P ratio of patches within each of these patch area categories are presented in Table 6.5. This Table illustrates that mean area : perimeter ratio of patches does not increase in proportion with increasing patch area.
It is immediately obvious that the majority of the patches of rainforest in the Gorges are small, with almost 76% of patches
101 Fig. 6. 2 Patch Area Classes
100 100
90 ,■ Total Patches 90
, 80 4 Total Area 80
70 70
60 60 c 0 •■• 50 50
40
30 30
20 20
10 10
i 0 <5 20- 100 Area Class (Ha.) Chapter 6 covering 20 ha. or less in area. However, in terms of the proportion of the total area of rainforest, most (81%) is contained within those patches exceeding 20 ha. in size. In particular, patches exceeding 100 ha. in area account for only some 6% of patches but nearly 51% of the total area of rainforest.
Thus, the rainforest resource within the Gorges consists of numerous small and very few large patches. Collectively the small patches cover a relatively small area of forest while the few large patches account for the bulk of the area.
Table 6.5
Patch Mean Perimeter and A:P Ratio By Area Class
Area Class Mean Perimeter Mean A:P Ratio (ha.) (km) ( m2 im )
<5 0.9 ±0.4 29.7 ±16.0
5-20 2.5 ±1.1 47.7 116.1
20-100 6.5 l3.4 72.1 1-31.1
>100 20.8 ±17.2 129.7 163.1
6.5.1.2 Rainforest Patch Perimeter Categorisation
Figure 6.3 illustrates the proportions of the rainforest resource occurring within five defined perimeter length classes.
Some 81% of patches have perimeters of 5 km or less in length but when combined cover less than 28% of the existing total area of rainforest. The remaining 19% of patches have perimeters exceeding 5 km in length but these patches account for approximately 72% of the area of rainforest in the Gorges.
102 Fig. 6.3 Patch Perimeter Classes
100 100
90 - Total Patches — 90 80 - Total Area - BO
70 1- 70
60 - - 60
50 - - 50
40 - - 4-0
30 30
20 - 20
10 10
<1 1-5 5-10 10-20 Patch Perimeter Class (km) Chapter 6
6.5.1.3 Rainforest Patch Area : Perimeter Ratio Categorisation
The proportions of the rainforest resource occurring within the four defined patch area : perimeter ratio classes (i.e., patches with A:P ratios are presented in Figure 6.4. Table 6.6 summarises the mean patch area and perimeters within each of these classes.
Very few patches have very small (i.e., <20 m 2 /m) or very large (i.e., >100 m 2 /m) A:P ratios. . The largest proportion of patches (almost 60%), have A:P ratios between 20 - 50 m2/m while a further 27% have A:P ratios between 50 - 100 m2/m. Obviously, the patches with the larger ratios account for the majority of the area of rainforest in the Gorges. Indeed, although only 6% of patches have A:P ratios exceeding 100 m2/m, they collectively cover some 38% of the total area of rainforest while the 60% of patches with ratios between 20 - 50 m2/m cover only 20% of the total area of rainforest.
Table 6.6
Mean Patch Area and Perimeter By A:P Ratio Class
A:P Ratio Class Mean Area Mean Perimeter ( m2 /m) (ha.) ( km )
<20 1.4 20.9 0.8 20.5
20-50 3.6 + 13.4 2.4 3.4
50-100 38.0 158.4 5.5 28.5
>100 153.3 1184.1 9.9 112.7
6.5.1.4 Rainforest Patch Shape Classification
Figure 6.5 illustrates the proportions of the rainforest resource that were categorised into each shape class and Table
103 Fig. 6.4 Patch Area : Perimeter Ratio Classes
100 100
= 90 Total Patches 90
80 Total Area 80
70 70
60 60 c 0 =L_ 550 50 0 a o 40 40 L_ a_ 30 30
20 20
10 10